Bad beat/Moaning/Venting thread - Wordle Gummidge

[Guest]

what were we saying about pollsters?

mad stuff, truly mad.

Well it’s you and Hitch who I look up to, I’m a mere sheep so I take no blame.

[oleras]

Fuck it. A last bet. €150 on Democrats to win Ohio at 5/1. I refuse to believe the polls are actually this wrong.

U drove it down to 7/2..followed drunkenly.

[Theresa]

Ohio is gone.

80% of estimated early votes are in and only 2/3 of votes have been counted thus far.

A smaller proportion of outstanding votes to counted will be made of early votes so Ohio effectively gone.

Looking a lot grimmer now.

Theres still hope but its fading. NC a legit flip from here on out. Ohio dead. Penn is very interesting, given how its gone so far can Biden hold the advantage with so much left to count.

Squeaky bum time.

[Guest]

Maggie Thacher never won according to the poles...

!

[Raoul Duke III]

All over to the good people of Iowa and Arizona?

[DeadParrot]

The tone as shifted a little bit on CNN

[LuckyLloyd]

Ohio is gone.

80% of estimated early votes are in and only 2/3 of votes have been counted thus far.

A smaller proportion of outstanding votes to counted will be made of early votes so Ohio effectively gone.

Fine, I don’t disagree?

[Theresa]

PA trending red.

Thats prob game.

Gl America. You have firmly made your bed.

[Guest]

Fine, I don’t disagree?

I know.

Im effectively agreeing with you.

[Denny Crane]

That was quick

[Raoul Duke III]

Well, no matter if Biden somehow pulls this put of the bag, my analysis was pure shite. Apologies to anyone who followed me off the cliff.*

*

SPOILER

no money back guarantees

[Guest]

Polling companies are run by the day trading lizard people and there sole aim is to convince the lazy and the stoner to stay at home cause their guy is going to win anyhu!

Someone had to say it

[DeadParrot]

Will there be a post mortem on the Hunter laptop story?
I'm trying to see what a swing was and that was their hail mary.
Is the Covid recovery storyline the winner?

Fuck, this is gonna be interesting to try figure out


But very, very depressing

[Theresa]

Arizona 60+% 7 point lead.

[Theresa]

All on PA tbh.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

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[Lazare]

PA trending red.

Thats prob game.

Gl America. You have firmly made your bed.

PA good shot at shifting blue over the coming days. Early vote and mail in not represented yet.

[DeadParrot]

Regardless of how this actually ends, I find it absolutely incredible that whatever happens there will be more people voting for Trump than in 2016.

[Theresa]

PA good shot at shifting blue over the coming days. Early vote and mail in not represented yet.

Yeah my sense is though that its basically Biden with his early voting trying to outrun Trumps day of voters.

It seems that once Trump gets ahead, it's gonna be hard. It really is all on PA.

[Lazare]

Did we not say all along that Trump was gonna look strong today, and things would flip over the coming days?

That he would declare victory on election night. That it needed to be a landslide in order for that not to work for him.

Is that not playing out here?

[DeadParrot]

Yuan is cratering....that does not bode well

[KK82]

Wind seems to be going out of the CNN guy's sails.

[LuckyLloyd]

Regardless of how this actually ends, I find it absolutely incredible that whatever happens there will be more people voting for Trump than in 2016.

This is the real story here. Trump is about to be validated on the highest turnout in nearly 100 years. Against an opponent who isn’t widely disliked like Clinton was. This is disastrous.

[DeadParrot]

Did we not say all along that Trump was gonna look strong today, and things would flip over the coming days?

That he would declare victory on election night. That it needed to be a landslide in order for that not to work for him.

Is that not playing out here?

the hope was that it wouldn't come to that.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

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[Guest]

I think Michigan is the state to watch. I’m confident Biden can win Arizona & Wisconsin so if he then wins Michigan, we’re at 269 apiece assuming he loses NC, PA that means it will come down to a congressional district like Maine where he’s the fav?

RD3 can proof read that, not 100% sure.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

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[Theresa]

Did we not say all along that Trump was gonna look strong today, and things would flip over the coming days?

That he would declare victory on election night. That it needed to be a landslide in order for that not to work for him.

Is that not playing out here?

Keep the faith. I like it.

Not dead yet.

[Theresa]

This is the real story here. Trump is about to be validated on the highest turnout in nearly 100 years. Against an opponent who isn’t widely disliked like Clinton was. This is disastrous.

It's incredible. What a mandate. What does that say for America?

[Opr]

I have Rogan on in the background, Some of the states are doing the count the opposite way according to some political guy on it. PA is one of the states which is counting the Election day votes first and then the mail ballots. Can anyone confirm that? Would mean some of the states should swing in the opposite direction to what we have seen.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

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[DeadParrot]

I used to like dilbert

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

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[Lazare]

I have Rogan on in the background, Some of the states are doing the count the opposite way according to some political guy on it. PA is one of the states which is counting the Election day votes first and then the mail ballots. Can anyone confirm that? Would mean some of the states should swing in the opposite direction to what we have seen.

Yes. Some states like PA have laws that no vote can be counted until polls close. Postal votes will naturally take longer to tally.

[LuckyLloyd]

I have Rogan on in the background, Some of the states are doing the count the opposite way according to some political guy on it. PA is one of the states which is counting the Election day votes first and then the mail ballots. Can anyone confirm that? Would mean some of the states should swing in the opposite direction to what we have seen.

For Pennsylvania this is correct. Their rules meant that mail in ballots (mailed or dropped off) could not even be touched and pre processed until today. Many counties have no intention of starting to count them until tomorrow morning.

By contrast, states like Florida / Wisconsin / Arizona allowed pre processing and are striving to get a result on the night if possible.

[Charlie Sheen]

CNN guy was saying that. Its why I bet on Ohio as he said there's loads of early votes yet to come there. Not sure thats true though.

Is there any proof to

Dems - mail in voters
GOP - on the day voters

[Denny Crane]

This is the real story here. Trump is about to be validated on the highest turnout in nearly 100 years. Against an opponent who isn’t widely disliked like Clinton was. This is disastrous.

Is this not like the people actually betting money, versus the pollsters? The people who live in the country have a very different view of things compared to the people who don't?

[Lazare]

For Pennsylvania this is correct. Their rules meant that mail in ballots (mailed or dropped off) could not even be touched and pre processed until today. Many counties have no intention of starting to count them until tomorrow morning.

By contrast, states like Florida / Wisconsin / Arizona allowed pre processing and are striving to get a result on the night if possible.

I think it's the case in Michigan and Wisconsin too.

[Theresa]

Is there any proof to

Dems - mail in voters
GOP - on the day voters

How you holding up?

Alberta is Texas north, been kinda dreading listening to the knuckle draggers for the next 4 years again.

[Guest]

Dems now favourites in Arizona. Its definitely not dead yet, whatever it is.

Yeah that's the path if Dems are going to win.

Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan along with two congressional seats in Nebraska & Maine.

Hes fav in all but Michigan now so that's the state he needs to flip.

[Theresa]

Is this not like the people actually betting money, versus the pollsters? The people who live in the country have a very different view of things compared to the people who don't?

You promised me you'd stop!

[Charlie Sheen]

How you holding up?

Alberta is Texas north, been kinda dreading listening to the knuckle draggers for the next 4 years again.

All good. Waiting on lockdown 2.0 to start here but I never went back to the office anyway. Best thing for the knuckle draggers is agree with their hate for Trudeau etc. and then just finish it with yeah he's not left enough for me....you'll be met with confusion most of the time.

[DeadParrot]

12/5 on biden seems like value.


edit...
gone...

[Theresa]

All good. Waiting on lockdown 2.0 to start here but I never went back to the office anyway. Best thing for the knuckle draggers is agree with their hate for Trudeau etc. and then just finish it with yeah he's not left enough for me....you'll be met with confusion most of the time.

Ha, yeah I mean I dont particularly think he's that great but I also don't get the hate. Need to try the left line. My missus' oul lad will have no idea.

Lockdown 2.0 is coming I think but on the other hand... I kinda see our Provincial Gov as Trump light, and they might do the same thing, and just keep things open. Place is struggling with OnG dead so I could see Kenney just continuing business as usual.

[DeadParrot]

All good. Waiting on lockdown 2.0 to start here but I never went back to the office anyway. Best thing for the knuckle draggers is agree with their hate for Trudeau etc. and then just finish it with yeah he's not left enough for me....you'll be met with confusion most of the time.

The heart of canada died with the Red Green Show

[Lazare]

[Closed_Account]

Red Mirage. Langauge. Ehhhh. Finds a way.

Probably one of the funniest things I have ever said.

[LuckyLloyd]

Is this not like the people actually betting money, versus the pollsters? The people who live in the country have a very different view of things compared to the people who don't?

The people actually betting money created a market that had Biden a 1 / 2 favourite. The market was also wrong here.

You’re also talking to someone who heavily bet on this election, many of us did. And I agree with you that the models / polls are wrong. How wrong they are is to be deciphered yet, but as I have been saying the last few days - many people will be slow to buy in to them again.

As to the final point: if Trump wins on a high turnout garnering millions of new voters compared to 2016 then fundamentally yes, Americans see it differently to the rest of us in a very substantive way. That cannot be debated.

[Raoul Duke III]

So we're down to chewing our knuckles on Arizona and Nebraska 2nd district before looking back to the fucking Rust Belt.

[Emmet]

FFS

[Sledgejammer]

Ha, yeah I mean I dont particularly think he's that great but I also don't get the hate. Need to try the left line. My missus' oul lad will have no idea.

Lockdown 2.0 is coming I think but on the other hand... I kinda see our Provincial Gov as Trump light, and they might do the same thing, and just keep things open. Place is struggling with OnG dead so I could see Kenney just continuing business as usual.

ontario is going the other way with our own Trump light announcing everything is opening again on the same day as our highest cases so far, going to be a shitshow. Still, could be worse I guess...

[Theresa]

ontario is going the other way with our own Trump light announcing everything is opening again on the same day as our highest cases so far, going to be a shitshow. Still, could be worse I guess...

Alright buddy! Been a while since you stuck your head in here.

[Theresa]

So we're down to chewing our knuckles on Arizona and Nebraska 2nd district before looking back to the fucking Rust Belt.

Nah.

Look.

1. Mich, Wis looking a bit more competitive.
2. As Laz pointed out, PA decent shot of coming back.
3. NC 70k votes. Chance.
4. Iowa, while being small, might flip.

There's a decent chance. Keep the faith.

[DeadParrot]

Fox calls arizona for biden

[aidankk]

Serious few quid for Biden in last few minutes , down from near 4.0 to 2.5.

[DeadParrot]

bed time?

[Sledgejammer]

Alright buddy! Been a while since you stuck your head in here.

Yo! Yeah, was lurking as I figured this place would be the best bet to help me understand the difference between the betting market and the polling, turns out there's no logic to any of it

[aidankk]

What the feck it 2.36 . Whish I know what changed

[DeadParrot]

murica

[Closed_Account]

Want to sleep nut.legit cant look away