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    2.86 Go Frackers

    Comment


      I know Hitch previously mentioned institutional money hedging and GAB regarding sentiment from smart money aligning markets but I'm not sure how much smart money exists here.


      I think there are far more recreational gamblers who are getting involved here that would never place a bet.

      Also, I understand that it's the largest market in BF history but it's not 10-20x the largest non political market, it's 3-4x.
      It's a market that remains online longer than any other so it has more time to gather momentum/volume from recreational punters.

      I just think it sits in a weird space where there isn't smart money in the traditional sports betting sense where insider info/more advanced models etc exist.

      What's the smart money/institutional investors working off, 538 and The Economist models? I suspect if truly smart money/institutional investors existed where they had invested in accumulating additional info, there are more lucrative, liquid markets to invest in than simply the winner of the election.

      Comment


        8/13 JB, 13/8 DT.

        Comment


          4 years ago Hilarys platform for election was "I'm not Trump" and Trump, despite how loathsome many of his pillars were, he had them and allowed people to connect with him. Roll on 4 years and I am not sure anything has changed. I literally have no idea what platform Biden is standing on other than "I'm not Trump". It's a tried and tested route to failure.

          Comment


            2.62 Go Frackers

            There are many words bandied about regarding Donald Trump. Most are very negative. Two to add to the mix are Clutch and Closer.
            Last edited by Dice75; 03-11-20, 07:04.

            Comment


              Originally posted by Dice75 View Post
              2.62 Go Frackers

              There are many words bandied about regarding Donald Trump. Most are very negative. Two to add to the mix are Clutch and Closer.
              1.63 for Joe

              Comment


                Originally posted by Gimmeabreak View Post
                4 years ago Hilarys platform for election was "I'm not Trump" and Trump, despite how loathsome many of his pillars were, he had them and allowed people to connect with him. Roll on 4 years and I am not sure anything has changed. I literally have no idea what platform Biden is standing on other than "I'm not Trump". It's a tried and tested route to failure.
                Is that platform not fundamentally different now though because we have proof of his failures?

                Hillary ran on Trump will be bad for you.
                Biden is running on Trump has been bad for you.

                Something which has been made apparent by Covid.

                Comment


                  Originally posted by Gimmeabreak View Post
                  4 years ago Hilarys platform for election was "I'm not Trump" and Trump, despite how loathsome many of his pillars were, he had them and allowed people to connect with him. Roll on 4 years and I am not sure anything has changed. I literally have no idea what platform Biden is standing on other than "I'm not Trump". It's a tried and tested route to failure.
                  Jesus, I can't believe I have to explain the obvious again.

                  2016: referendum on Hilary.
                  2020: referendum on Trump.
                  "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                  Comment


                    On the Biden train but getting worried the way his odds have been moving since this morning. Out to 4/6 now

                    Comment




                      Looking at this shows simply how much must go "wrong" in order for Trump to win.

                      The polls have to be out in Trump's favour by significantly more in quite a few states.

                      Biden is closer in Texas than Trump is, in 3 or 4 states he has to flip in order to win.

                      Comment


                        So the thing to watch today (ahead of the results obv) is turnout.

                        Biden wins a high turnout election every time. And luckily 100m Americans have already voted (136m in total last time).
                        "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                        Comment


                          Originally posted by Gimmeabreak View Post
                          4 years ago Hilarys platform for election was "I'm not Trump" and Trump, despite how loathsome many of his pillars were, he had them and allowed people to connect with him. Roll on 4 years and I am not sure anything has changed. I literally have no idea what platform Biden is standing on other than "I'm not Trump". It's a tried and tested route to failure.
                          Nah. The last election was a referendum on Hillary. Americans were asked to choose between the devil they know and the devil they don't. This time it's a choice between continuing the chaos or returning to something approaching normality.
                          "I can’t find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by Keane View Post

                            Between this and mellor's story I'm finding it very hard not to double my stake
                            Who do you think will win tends to be a more accurate question then who are you voting for.

                            This is going to be fascinating. The market just keeps going against all public polling data.

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by Murdrum View Post

                              Is that platform not fundamentally different now though because we have proof of his failures?

                              Hillary ran on Trump will be bad for you.
                              Biden is running on Trump has been bad for you.

                              Something which has been made apparent by Covid.
                              Most voters said they were better off than they were four years ago.

                              Comment


                                Biden remains only 1.15 to win the popular vote on the Betfair exchange, a proposition which looks practically impossible given the stability of the national poll lead for Biden which has him over 50% consistently.

                                There has to be something in the fact that:

                                i) your average punter throwing on 10 - 25 blips doesn't want to bet a short odds thing to return 10 - 15 blips. He'd rather take the 'value' offered on Trump
                                ii) Trump has developed an invincible aura after winning four year's ago and surviving gaffes on a daily basis that makes people, even smart people, wonder if he'll rig it / twist it his direction somehow, someway
                                iii) 'tHe pOlLs wErE wRoNg iN 2016'

                                Offering a bit of skepticism is reasonable I suppose, and we all understand that 10% shots come through. However fundamentally this is all a bit of a referendum on an entire industry that had its face rubbed in the mud after 2016. If they've missed it again - by a decently bigger margin - their careers and livelihoods are on the line this time. They've had their seismic event that will have forced a deep reevaluation of their methods. They are hugely motivated to not be on the wrong side of this. They wouldn't be criticised to characterise it as a tossup. And they still have Biden 1 / 9.

                                What the models don't account for are shenanigans at the polls and the prospect of legal challenges or other that fundamentally frustrate the will of the electorate. Maybe that should offer Trump something over his modelled price. But not near the extent we're seeing on the exchange imo.

                                If all of this is wrong and it turns out political prediction, punditry and acceptable standards are even more off the mark then we previously imagined then we have bigger problems than losing a few grand on our bets! Roll on 3am...

                                "Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." - John Maynard Keynes

                                Comment


                                  Originally posted by Gimmeabreak View Post
                                  4 years ago Hilarys platform for election was "I'm not Trump" and Trump, despite how loathsome many of his pillars were, he had them and allowed people to connect with him. Roll on 4 years and I am not sure anything has changed. I literally have no idea what platform Biden is standing on other than "I'm not Trump". It's a tried and tested route to failure.

                                  When asked to explain in their own words the main reasons why they support Joe Biden or Donald Trump, Biden supporters are far more likely than Trump supporters to volunteer that opposition to the other candidate is a main motivating factor.

                                  A majority (56%) of registered voters who support Biden and those who lean toward supporting him say their main reason for supporting him is that he is not Trump. Just 19% of Trump supporters cite opposition to Biden as a central motivation.


                                  Last edited by Denny Crane; 03-11-20, 08:18.

                                  Comment


                                    If they've missed it again - by a decently bigger margin - their careers and livelihoods are on the line this time
                                    Are they?

                                    Comment


                                      Everyone is going on about Pennsylvania. Personally I'm watching North Carolina, Georgia, Florida and (whisper it) Texas which will be all declared long before PA.

                                      The first one of those that goes blue - this sucker is done.

                                      By the way - anyone else lose their emoji menu? (insert confused emoji and El Tren)
                                      "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                      Comment


                                        How is Biden the best they could do?
                                        hope he wins as it’s better for us and bad for Boris and uk but that’s it.
                                        wonder what the odds are on him not lasting full term if elected?

                                        Comment


                                          Originally posted by Denny Crane View Post
                                          Most voters said they were better off than they were four years ago.
                                          Well they were better off up until Covid.

                                          Wages in real terms were higher, unemployment was lower.
                                          Growth was higher across the US, not the 4% Trump said it would be but it was absolutely higher and relatively higher than most other countries.

                                          That said, there's still over 230k people dead in the US due to Covid and rightly or wrongly, the blame will sit with his administration.

                                          Also, plenty of those lower income people who did see increases in wages are those who have suffered the most during Covid.

                                          They were better off for a large proportion of his first term but I'm not sure they will feel better off as of today. Availability bias and all that.

                                          Comment


                                            Originally posted by Denny Crane View Post
                                            Are they?
                                            I think so.
                                            "Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." - John Maynard Keynes

                                            Comment


                                              Originally posted by LuckyLloyd View Post

                                              I think so.
                                              with that mind, I would definitely not exclude over-correction in favour of Trump....
                                              "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                              Comment


                                                I think Trump would have won if Covid wasn't a thing. In that sense some of the instincts around his presidency and the perception of same are correct. Him being reelected would have been met with revulsion in many quarters, but 'It's the Economy, stupid' still holds true. Certainly in such a context Biden wouldn't be the right candidate to take him on. But Covid did happen and it's been a chaotic period in the US. The landscape for him to win the election is just very difficult.
                                                "Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." - John Maynard Keynes

                                                Comment


                                                  Originally posted by Denny Crane View Post

                                                  Who do you think will win tends to be a more accurate question then who are you voting for.

                                                  This is going to be fascinating. The market just keeps going against all public polling data.
                                                  Counter to that is the Nate Silver conjecture that when everyone thinks the polls are wrong they tend to be wrong in the opposite way to what everyone thinks.

                                                  I'm satisfied by all the analysis that's been done on the shy trump voter thing that it doesn't exist. Anyone I've talked to here who basically wouldn't have a clue thinks trump is going to win even though they would all 100% vote Biden.

                                                  Comment


                                                    Originally posted by LuckyLloyd View Post

                                                    I think so.
                                                    With Denny there, not sure that's true, curious how you arrived at that tbh.

                                                    Comment


                                                      Originally posted by LuckyLloyd View Post

                                                      I think so.
                                                      Nah , they are like economists and big 4 accounting firms- they can consistently carry on being wrong and suffer no consequences

                                                      Comment


                                                        Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                        By the way - anyone else lose their emoji menu? (insert confused emoji and El Tren)
                                                        The smiley face next to the underlined A toggles it

                                                        Person...Woman...Man......Camera..TV

                                                        Comment


                                                          Like if Trump ends up winning I don't believe for a second the reason will be that people voted for him who were afraid to say they were voting for him.

                                                          If you're going to be banging the drum that we don't understand how the marketplace of ideas works in America and we're being fooled by our naive EU timelines you can't also maintain that Trump voters in Scranton are being bullied into pretending to vote Biden by the Guardian.

                                                          Comment


                                                            I’m not part of the Leo’s fan club at all but I nearly fell asleep reading about this scandal- big pile of nothing.
                                                            wearing novelty socks and too tight polyester running tops in public way worse crime

                                                            Comment


                                                              Originally posted by PSV58 View Post

                                                              Nah , they are like economists and big 4 accounting firms- they can consistently carry on being wrong and suffer no consequences
                                                              So long as they went to a private fee paying Dublin school

                                                              edit - and played rugby
                                                              Last edited by Gimmeabreak; 03-11-20, 08:57.

                                                              Comment


                                                                Interesting that PP are consistently best-priced on Trump and shortest on Biden. This has been the case the whole way through.

                                                                No idea how their politics traders are rated.
                                                                "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                Comment


                                                                  Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                                  Interesting that PP are consistently best-priced on Trump and shortest on Biden. This has been the case the whole way through.

                                                                  No idea how their politics traders are rated.
                                                                  It's probably less to do with their opinions and more to do with balancing the book.

                                                                  Comment


                                                                    Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

                                                                    fair bit of 8/15 out there if you shop around.

                                                                    The way things are going, I wouldn't be surprised if we can back Biden at 4/6-ish some time over the next 3 days.
                                                                    this has now happened on E-Day itself

                                                                    4/6 on Bet365 now. Will there be better available as the day wears on?
                                                                    "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                    Comment


                                                                      Originally posted by Murdrum View Post

                                                                      With Denny there, not sure that's true, curious how you arrived at that tbh.
                                                                      It's just my opinion.

                                                                      538's entire business model depends on people putting some faith in these types of predictive models and articles. If they're wrong to this extent I think their audience will lesson significantly.

                                                                      Portions of the political polling industry will remain of course, and a lot of their work is privately contracted and submitted - that probably isn't going away. But the volume of media work / articles focussing around their predictions will imo contract significantly if they are wrong here. Trump's base, people who support Brexit, the kind of anti lockdown / mask protesters here in Ireland already are in a mental space where they think polls are a load of bollocks. Will things just continue being the same, feeding the same level of analysis / information ahead of political elections?

                                                                      The comparison with professions might not stack up here - there is no legal requirement for this industry to exist.
                                                                      "Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." - John Maynard Keynes

                                                                      Comment


                                                                        Originally posted by LuckyLloyd View Post

                                                                        It's just my opinion.

                                                                        538's entire business model depends on people putting some faith in these types of predictive models and articles. If they're wrong to this extent I think their audience will lesson significantly.

                                                                        Portions of the political polling industry will remain of course, and a lot of their work is privately contracted and submitted - that probably isn't going away. But the volume of media work / articles focussing around their predictions will imo contract significantly if they are wrong here. Trump's base, people who support Brexit, the kind of anti lockdown / mask protesters here in Ireland already are in a mental space where they think polls are a load of bollocks. Will things just continue being the same, feeding the same level of analysis / information ahead of political elections?

                                                                        The comparison with professions might not stack up here - there is no legal requirement for this industry to exist.
                                                                        That's fair enough but pollsters such as 538 and similar have proven themselves valuable in the prediction of gubernational, mid-terms among others in the political sphere. I'm still in the camp that they're highly valuable irrespective of the result.

                                                                        Irrespective of my own interest, you know better than most that there is a universal shift across all domains for predictive analysis; politics and sport being two of the biggest. Not to mention Covid, people are bombarded every day now with graphical representation of abstract numbers and predictions.

                                                                        I think 538, The Economist and whoever else we follow will need reassessing if Trump was to be successful but the fact that so many people are referring to the graphs, analysis etc as bollox is indicative of a shift for me. 4 years ago, a far smaller proportion of viewers and voters even had an opinion on the field.

                                                                        I really don't think the quantitative analysis of politics is going anywhere. In some ways, I think the appetite for the industry will only grow if Trump gets back in.

                                                                        Imagine how long the post-game analysis will go on for if Trump binks.
                                                                        Last edited by Murdrum; 03-11-20, 09:54.

                                                                        Comment


                                                                          ...
                                                                          "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                                          Comment


                                                                            Originally posted by LuckyLloyd View Post

                                                                            It's just my opinion.

                                                                            538's entire business model depends on people putting some faith in these types of predictive models and articles. If they're wrong to this extent I think their audience will lesson significantly.

                                                                            Portions of the political polling industry will remain of course, and a lot of their work is privately contracted and submitted - that probably isn't going away. But the volume of media work / articles focussing around their predictions will imo contract significantly if they are wrong here. Trump's base, people who support Brexit, the kind of anti lockdown / mask protesters here in Ireland already are in a mental space where they think polls are a load of bollocks. Will things just continue being the same, feeding the same level of analysis / information ahead of political elections?

                                                                            The comparison with professions might not stack up here - there is no legal requirement for this industry to exist.
                                                                            They've never been the target market.

                                                                            Comment


                                                                              Ye are obsessed by the betting in this, also ye are all clearly suffering from emotional scars from 2016. If you think what Trump needs to do to win the election you would rest a lot easier. I also do not subscribe to the belief that covid is the only reason he will lose this election. The outrage was already building agianst his odious character. He is simply disliked intensely by a LARGE % of the Population. This has grown since 2016 and his handling of covid has only made people get out of their armchairs, switch off Netflix for a few hours and vote the fucker out of office. The difference covid made was making it a landslide. He is getting turfed out on his arse, probably by 3 am our time. The only thing saving him is some extreme
                                                                              Outlandish shenanigans .

                                                                              Comment


                                                                                ...
                                                                                "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                                                Comment


                                                                                  Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                                                                                  Lloyd, I think you started from a smart place and then argued yourself into a not very smart argument. You are arguing that a result can prove a profession wrong, but thats just not the way probabilistic judgments work. Nate is saying that based on current polls, with his blend of averaging and distribution of standard errors, that Biden is 89% to win, Trump is 10% to win, and a draw is 1% to win.

                                                                                  So exactly what outcome are you thinking will disprove his estimate?

                                                                                  It's certainly not Trump winning - thats right there in the model as a 10% chance.

                                                                                  Sure Trump will probably outperform his vote share - but thats what is taken account of in the standard errors and why Trump is 10% and not 0%.

                                                                                  Your broader point about standards in polling - Nate rates and weights polling companies precisely on these qualities - on their historical polling quality, on their standards of polling, on the methods they employ.
                                                                                  Sigh.

                                                                                  As I said a few days ago, just because we can understand math and probability to a degree higher than the average populace (you can argue the degree) and understand what a 10% chance coming through is; nonetheless it is bordering on obtuse to just shrug your shoulders if it hits this time around. The average people who look at these polls and models (who maybe aren't the average people, as per Denny's assertion about target markets) will not take it on the chin quite so stoically.

                                                                                  Anyway, we can bat this back and forth all day long. We're 14 hours from the result starting to crystallise.
                                                                                  "Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." - John Maynard Keynes

                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                    Originally posted by Tar.Aldarion View Post
                                                                                    I use one of these, very nice! https://ie-lumie.glopalstore.com/col...wake-up-lights

                                                                                    Though sounds like any aul clock will do ya
                                                                                    Had something like this before and it wasn't great
                                                                                    "you raise, i kill you" El Tren :{)

                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                      I think there's only really a language issue between LuckyLloyd and Hitch here.

                                                                                      Lloyd you're using the word "wrong" in an absolutist sense. I know you understand that wrong has no meaning based on the result of the election. Wrong in relation to predictive modelling is someone what complicated.

                                                                                      This sort of predictive modelling is imperfect. Part of the problem (acknowledged by people like Nate Cohen and Nate Silver) is that people do not think probabilistically. There's no good reason why we would have developed that skill. Michael Shermer likes to use the example of the pre-historic man on the plains of Africa who sees the grasses rustle nearby. Person A thinks "it's the wind" and ignores it. He's almost always right. Person B thinks "it's a Tiger!!" and runs. He's almost always wrong. Except when it is a tiger Person A gets eaten and when it's just the wind Person B survives. We are the descendants of Person B.

                                                                                      So the idea of probabilistic outcomes dictating our thinking is nonsense. We are hard-wired to see the world in a binary of right and wrong. And telling people who do see the world that way to cop on and think probabilistically is likely the right thing to do long-term, but in the short-term if the 90% chance doesn't come in it feeds into a hard-wired idea that the predictions were incorrect. That undermines confidence in decision making through modelling. Which, I think, is the point Lloyd is making, albeit perhaps somewhat inelegantly. (Sorry Lloyd)
                                                                                      You are technically correct...the best kind of correct
                                                                                      World Record Holder for Long Distance Soul Reads: May 7th 2011

                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                        Jesus


                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                          Originally posted by Denny Crane View Post
                                                                                          Jesus

                                                                                          Someone needs to let him know that he looks like he’s miming giving a double handjob with that dance

                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                            ...
                                                                                            "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                              Originally posted by PSV58 View Post

                                                                                              Someone needs to let him know that he looks like he’s miming giving a double handjob with that dance
                                                                                              "you raise, i kill you" El Tren :{)

                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                Originally posted by Murdrum View Post

                                                                                                Is that platform not fundamentally different now though because we have proof of his failures?

                                                                                                Hillary ran on Trump will be bad for you.
                                                                                                Biden is running on Trump has been bad for you.

                                                                                                Something which has been made apparent by Covid.
                                                                                                There was plenty of proof of failure before tho, he was and I think still is able to claim to be a success, a risk taker and a winner takes all guy.

                                                                                                Americans don’t hate failure as much as we do and they love a risk taking straight talker. Basically they are brash plebs stuck in the 80’s.

                                                                                                They are also hate socialism especially Latinos and Asians who moved from socialist regimes to follow the American dream. Weirdly I think they will accept racists in some states they don’t live in over the slightest hint of the banana republics they left.

                                                                                                Biden doesn’t dent that part of his base or appeal imo, all the corruption, Epstein connections, huge foreign policy blunders, destroying the environment, destroying healthcare and all the rest doesn’t seem to matter crazy as it sounds. Possibly because as Keane pointed out there are no guardian readers in Scranton.

                                                                                                With that I still think Trump handled Covid badly enough that he will be gone in a landslide.

                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                  Myself the missus finished watching The West Wing last night, it was an utterly incredible watch over the course of 7 seasons and has made it into my top 5 tv shows of all time.

                                                                                                  "you raise, i kill you" El Tren :{)

                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                    Originally posted by Kayroo View Post
                                                                                                    I think there's only really a language issue between LuckyLloyd and Hitch here.

                                                                                                    Lloyd you're using the word "wrong" in an absolutist sense. I know you understand that wrong has no meaning based on the result of the election. Wrong in relation to predictive modelling is someone what complicated.

                                                                                                    This sort of predictive modelling is imperfect. Part of the problem (acknowledged by people like Nate Cohen and Nate Silver) is that people do not think probabilistically. There's no good reason why we would have developed that skill. Michael Shermer likes to use the example of the pre-historic man on the plains of Africa who sees the grasses rustle nearby. Person A thinks "it's the wind" and ignores it. He's almost always right. Person B thinks "it's a Tiger!!" and runs. He's almost always wrong. Except when it is a tiger Person A gets eaten and when it's just the wind Person B survives. We are the descendants of Person B.

                                                                                                    So the idea of probabilistic outcomes dictating our thinking is nonsense. We are hard-wired to see the world in a binary of right and wrong. And telling people who do see the world that way to cop on and think probabilistically is likely the right thing to do long-term, but in the short-term if the 90% chance doesn't come in it feeds into a hard-wired idea that the predictions were incorrect. That undermines confidence in decision making through modelling. Which, I think, is the point Lloyd is making, albeit perhaps somewhat inelegantly. (Sorry Lloyd)
                                                                                                    All I'm really saying is don't expect the average person to understand 'well we did say Trump had a slim chance' if he wins in this instance, and to be open and interested in such models next time out. Yes, a Trump win here would massively undermine confidence in the polling based political prediction industry.

                                                                                                    The polls were largely within a margin of error last time out. The 538 model gave Trump ~30% on election day. ~30% is a decent chance. We all understand that.
                                                                                                    The polls need to be way beyond margin of error today. The 538 model is giving Trump 10% today.. People aren't going to appreciate the nuance this time round if he wins, imo.
                                                                                                    "Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." - John Maynard Keynes

                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                      Originally posted by RichieM View Post

                                                                                                      There was plenty of proof of failure before tho, he was and I think still is able to claim to be a success, a risk taker and a winner takes all guy.

                                                                                                      Americans don’t hate failure as much as we do and they love a risk taking straight talker. Basically they are brash plebs stuck in the 80’s..
                                                                                                      it's actually the reason why I don't buy the 'shy Trump voter' theory.

                                                                                                      If there's one thing Americans are not, it's shy.
                                                                                                      "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                                      Comment




                                                                                                        note the author placed 1M on biden yesterday

                                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                                          Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                                                                                                          There are alternatives to straight polls by the way - designed for when you either (a) aren't sure respondents will tell you the correct answer, or (b) when respondents themselves might not know what they think
                                                                                                          I read about that being used in a somewhat ingenious way of polling people in totalitarian regimes who for fear of persecution cannot give direct answers to questions.

                                                                                                          The list experiment was what they called it and they used
                                                                                                          "Did you join a protest this year" as the substitute for your racism question.

                                                                                                          They also used another one where two cohorts got a list of affirmative questions, both identical except one group had an additional question like the protest one in order to identify how many did in fact protest.

                                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                                            Originally posted by tylerdurden94 View Post
                                                                                                            Myself the missus finished watching The West Wing last night, it was an utterly incredible watch over the course of 7 seasons and has made it into my top 5 tv shows of all time.

                                                                                                            Told you this years ago.

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                                                                                                              ...
                                                                                                              "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

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                                                                                                                Originally posted by KevIRL View Post

                                                                                                                Told you this years ago.
                                                                                                                I had you in mind as I know you were beating the drum about it for a long time, there was always so much to watch but it's nice to find a show like that which myself/missus had never seen before and both enjoy it.

                                                                                                                Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post

                                                                                                                ohhhh thats tempting to commit to as a watch. Would take how long to watch - three months maybe?
                                                                                                                Depends how much time you wanna devote to it, runs 156 episodes with a couple specials also. We had just been tipping away at it over the last couple months. Felt like an apt time to finish watching it with the upcoming election today we could definitely do with a Josiah "Jed" Bartlet in charge of The White House.
                                                                                                                "you raise, i kill you" El Tren :{)

                                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                                  Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post

                                                                                                                  ohhhh thats tempting to commit to as a watch. Would take how long to watch - three months maybe?
                                                                                                                  The first four seasons in particular will probably have you wanting to watch multiple episodes together. There is an excellent podcast called The West Wing weekly to accompany it.

                                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                                    ...
                                                                                                                    "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                                      Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

                                                                                                                      it's actually the reason why I don't buy the 'shy Trump voter' theory.

                                                                                                                      If there's one thing Americans are not, it's shy.
                                                                                                                      I’ve met alot of Americans over the last 5ish years. Not one has said they are a Trump supporter when it invariably comes up in conversation. Not one. Now i know the sample size is more than small but still. I think there is a certain merit to the theory.

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                                                                                                                        CNN really shouldn't show Joe with a megaphone in a parking lot
                                                                                                                        People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
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                                                                                                                          "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

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