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    Originally posted by ComradeCollie View Post
    Depp loses!
    Election is tomorrow dude
    "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

    Comment


      Originally posted by DeadParrot View Post
      https://www.irishtimes.com/news/poli...tion-1.4397093

      Here's you angle Hitch. Make a much more palatable narrative than the one you were trying.
      Nope.

      NAGP Chairman Dr Andy Jordan insisted: “It is now three weeks since the announcement of the new [GP] contract and to date there is no sign of any contract or contractual document. Until we see the contract document it is impossible to advise members.
      https://www.imt.ie/news/nagp-blames-...es-29-04-2019/

      Just read the WhatApps messages. The lads know they being naughty by having a copy of the document.
      Happiness is not a goal; it is a by-product. ~Eleanor Roosevelt

      Comment


        Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

        Election is tomorrow dude


        Comment


          The polls open for physical voting in the US in just over 24 hours.

          538 have the race at 89-10-1
          The Economist has it at 95-5
          YouGov has Biden winning 364-174

          Still no movement in the betting markets which continue to be Biden ~1.5 and Trump ~2.9....
          "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

          Comment


            Finished watching the queen's gambit yesterday. Cracking mini series on netflix which manages to make watching chess really exciting. obviously not just that but the chess scenes and the main actress are brilliant.

            Comment


              Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
              The polls open for physical voting in the US in just over 24 hours.

              538 have the race at 89-10-1
              The Economist has it at 95-5
              YouGov has Biden winning 364-174

              Still no movement in the betting markets which continue to be Biden ~1.5 and Trump ~2.9....
              8/1 about for that.

              I'm a little more bullish on a very resounding win for Biden.

              Apparently Republicans are resigned to a loss now and saying that they want the loss to be huge.

              They believe an emphatic defeat will allow a "Republican Renaissance" but a close defeat will simply perpetuate the polarisation.

              A clean death so to speak.

              Originally posted by shrapnel View Post
              Finished watching the queen's gambit yesterday. Cracking mini series on netflix which manages to make watching chess really exciting. obviously not just that but the chess scenes and the main actress are brilliant.
              Started it yesterday, really enjoyed the first couple of episodes. Apparently all the moves accurate, Kasparov and another chess master advised on it.

              Comment


                ...
                "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                Comment


                  Originally posted by Murdrum View Post

                  8/1 about for that.

                  I'm a little more bullish on a very resounding win for Biden.
                  Nailing my own colours to the wall, I think it's going to be a landslide (you can go here and produce your own one of these lads btw):

                  GXryw.png
                  "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                  Comment


                    BF market just went past €300m matched. Might well hit €500m before we get a result.
                    "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                    Comment


                      Yeat the Queens Gambit is really good. Who would have thought the cinematography on a chess series would be so impactful. Loved it. Her eyes. My god , I was transfixed .

                      Comment


                        ALSO. Trump is toast.

                        Comment


                          Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

                          Nailing my own colours to the wall, I think it's going to be a landslide (you can go here and produce your own one of these lads btw):

                          GXryw.png
                          I actually fear for Bidens life . The Trumpsters are unhinged in equal measure to their Clown in Chief

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                            BF market just went past €300m matched. Might well hit €500m before we get a result.
                            seems to be running at about a million every 10 mins
                            "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by shrapnel View Post
                              Finished watching the queen's gambit yesterday. Cracking mini series on netflix which manages to make watching chess really exciting. obviously not just that but the chess scenes and the main actress are brilliant.
                              Cool, I saw it and was intrigued. Will give it a go.

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                The polls open for physical voting in the US in just over 24 hours.

                                Still no movement in the betting markets which continue to be Biden ~1.5 and Trump ~2.9....
                                Biden eeked out to 1.58 in the TAB. So I bit the bullet. Filled my boots. Machine duely lets be know the price will change to 1.57
                                Place it at the window instead. The guy behind the windows double checks that I meant Biden.

                                "Yes, correct. Biden"
                                "Just checking, as so far, everyone else has been going Trump"
                                ""

                                Comment


                                  Originally posted by Mellor View Post

                                  Biden eeked out to 1.58 in the TAB. So I bit the bullet. Filled my boots. Machine duely lets be know the price will change to 1.57
                                  Place it at the window instead. The guy behind the windows double checks that I meant Biden.

                                  "Yes, correct. Biden"
                                  "Just checking, as so far, everyone else has been going Trump"
                                  ""
                                  The wisdom of crowds.

                                  "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                  Comment


                                    According to Oddschecker, 60% of bets are on Trump, 30% on Biden and, er, 10% split between Pence and Harris.
                                    "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                    Comment


                                      Originally posted by Murdrum View Post

                                      8/1 about for that.

                                      I'm a little more bullish on a very resounding win for Biden.

                                      Apparently Republicans are resigned to a loss now and saying that they want the loss to be huge.

                                      They believe an emphatic defeat will allow a "Republican Renaissance" but a close defeat will simply perpetuate the polarisation.

                                      A clean death so to speak.



                                      Started it yesterday, really enjoyed the first couple of episodes. Apparently all the moves accurate, Kasparov and another chess master advised on it.
                                      I wonder is that a return to where they were placed pre-trump, pre-tea party or a move further towards the middle - well the US version of the middle at least.

                                      Comment


                                        Originally posted by RichieM View Post

                                        I wonder is that a return to where they were placed pre-trump, pre-tea party or a move further towards the middle - well the US version of the middle at least.
                                        The Republicans have been moving rightward since Goldwater in 1964. Trump is just a more idiosyncratic iteration.
                                        "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                        Comment


                                          Prediction
                                          People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
                                          Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner!
                                          https://revolut.com/referral/jamesb8!G10D21

                                          Comment


                                            Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post

                                            you're getting caught up in the minutae. was the contract, if implemented, going to help you and yours or harm you and yours? it was clearly intended to help expand access to free healthcare, so why are you seeing something wrong with Leo going out on a limb to help you?
                                            Results orientated thinking. In a poker forum. Really?

                                            Why are you ignoring the point that the information wasn't used to help get buy in from the NAGP?

                                            40% of GPs to be encompassed by the agreement weren't in a union. Where was their copy published?
                                            Happiness is not a goal; it is a by-product. ~Eleanor Roosevelt

                                            Comment



                                              I used American Truck Simulator to try and predict the US election -- https://www.wired.co.uk/article/us-e...ruck-simulator

                                              Comment


                                                Originally posted by shrapnel View Post
                                                Finished watching the queen's gambit yesterday. Cracking mini series on netflix which manages to make watching chess really exciting. obviously not just that but the chess scenes and the main actress are brilliant.
                                                Very enjoyable. Looks great, good use of music and an inspiring rags to riches tale with a main protagonist that’s easy to root for. The chess context really worked for me also. It’s a bit slight and a bit easy by times and who knows whether the chess stuff is actually presented well or not - but I really enjoyed it which is all that matters at the moment really.
                                                "Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." - John Maynard Keynes

                                                Comment


                                                  Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

                                                  seems to be running at about a million every 10 mins

                                                  Comment


                                                    Originally posted by RichieM View Post

                                                    I wonder is that a return to where they were placed pre-trump, pre-tea party or a move further towards the middle - well the US version of the middle at least.
                                                    I think The Republicans are stuck in a spot now where they are trying to please their corporate donors through regressive tax cuts and at the same time, a populist base which is probably in greater need than ever of the things Republicans don't value, such as free healthcare and social security.

                                                    You expect regressive tax cuts by a Republican President so you can't really complain when they deliver there. The issue for Republcan donors is that Trump didn't really deliver that much in relative terms.

                                                    I read something like his tax cuts will result in a revenue gain of 150bn -0.7% of GDP- over 10 years while George W's was 1.5% and Reagan was 2.6%.

                                                    Now he has done serious harm to renewable energy sector -which will please donors, something like 30% of his deregulation measures were made in fossil fuels so probably a mammoth task to rein that back in.

                                                    I think that the idea of a Republican Renaissance that moves them to something more centrist is possible. The Democrats made big changes in their philosophy, hard to think of a more fitting time for a shift than Trump/Covid.

                                                    Comment


                                                      Originally posted by thechamp87 View Post

                                                      is that the biggest ever bet on BF, full stop?
                                                      "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                      Comment


                                                        Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

                                                        is that the biggest ever bet on BF, full stop?
                                                        Someone on that thread said it was the biggest ever. It would almost certainly be a binary event so that rules out Horse Racing & Soccer unless it was "To Win Champions League" but they're never as liquid as match odds.

                                                        The only events I can think of outside of Brexit and US election 2016 would be maybe a Wimbledon Final or a Superbowl.

                                                        If I recall correctly, I think both of them are in and around the 100m mark.

                                                        Comment


                                                          ...
                                                          "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                          Comment


                                                            Anyone any insights/advice good or bad on sticking a flat roof extension on back of house (30sqm)

                                                            Comment


                                                              ...
                                                              "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                              Comment


                                                                Originally posted by Dice75 View Post
                                                                2.98 Save the Second Ammendment, MAGA.
                                                                2.92 Euros4Trump

                                                                Comment


                                                                  Originally posted by Dice75 View Post
                                                                  Anyone any insights/advice good or bad on sticking a flat roof extension on back of house (30sqm)
                                                                  Not an expert and haven't been in that game for years but my 2c..Would try and avoid a flat roof in the Irish climate, can't insulate as well as pitched, more prone to leaks.. lot of debris, leaves etc likely to be lying on it for large parts of the year. You'll probably have to get someone back to repair, part replace in about 10 years. Its 12 years since I worked on one (shit I'm getting old) so I'm sure there are better materials and practices now.
                                                                  Jayzus, Sheila! I forgot me feckin' trousers

                                                                  Comment


                                                                    Looking to get a clock for the bedroom that is illuminated/viewable instead of reaching for my phone in the middle of the night to check the time, opinions/options? Stayed in a hotel on a poker trip and there was a clock like THIS in the room which was perfect for the clock viewing but I don't need something as fancy as it for music etc.
                                                                    Last edited by tylerdurden94; 02-11-20, 15:28.
                                                                    "you raise, i kill you" El Tren :{)

                                                                    Comment


                                                                      Originally posted by Dice75 View Post
                                                                      Anyone any insights/advice good or bad on sticking a flat roof extension on back of house (30sqm)
                                                                      Make it a bit bigger than you think you need. If the plan is to have an open plan extension, its gets kinda small when you have to fit everything in, kitchen dining room , couch etc.

                                                                      I wouldn't worry about flat roof, they are a different deal now than a few years ago.
                                                                      sigpic
                                                                      Longshotvalue.com

                                                                      Comment


                                                                        I use one of these, very nice! https://ie-lumie.glopalstore.com/col...wake-up-lights

                                                                        Though sounds like any aul clock will do ya

                                                                        Comment


                                                                          Originally posted by Wombatman View Post

                                                                          Just got it. 8.5. Was 11. A bit skewed because I only renewed handicap last year, after letting it lapse ,and only have 9 counting scores. I think they take average of top three scores in my case.

                                                                          At least I can say I played off single figures at one time in my life .
                                                                          Handicap completely different now. 7.3 showing today. Only home scores counting and only very back tees counting. Updated with recent scores. What's going on?
                                                                          Last edited by Wombatman; 02-11-20, 17:20.
                                                                          Happiness is not a goal; it is a by-product. ~Eleanor Roosevelt

                                                                          Comment


                                                                            Comment



                                                                              Anybody any good recommendations for picking up a cheapish bike, preferably in a B&M shop

                                                                              I'm just looking for something as a run around, not looking to compete in the Tour De France and it will be housed out doors so was hoping to pick something up for around 100-200 quid mark?

                                                                              Comment


                                                                                Person...Woman...Man......Camera..TV

                                                                                Comment


                                                                                  Originally posted by Lao Lao View Post
                                                                                  Anybody any good recommendations for picking up a cheapish bike, preferably in a B&M shop

                                                                                  I'm just looking for something as a run around, not looking to compete in the Tour De France and it will be housed out doors so was hoping to pick something up for around 100-200 quid mark?
                                                                                  2nd hand ones on advert.ie, or a btwin from decathlon. Very decent bikes

                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                      Originally posted by Wombatman View Post

                                                                                      Handicap completely different now. 7.3 showing today. Only home scores counting and only very back tees counting. Updated with recent scores. What's going on?
                                                                                      Could be a few things?

                                                                                      They have changed the way caps are calc’d in most countries to bring them all in line? Did that just happen at home?

                                                                                      Was the course/a course you play on re rated?

                                                                                      Did you get any PCC on your recent scores?
                                                                                      This may or may not be an original thought of my own.
                                                                                      All efforts were made to make this thought original but with the abundance of thoughts in the world the originality of this thought cannot be guaranteed.
                                                                                      The author is not liable for any issue arising from the platitudinous nature of this post.

                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                        Originally posted by Opr View Post
                                                                                        Between this and mellor's story I'm finding it very hard not to double my stake

                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                          Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

                                                                                          The wisdom of crowds.
                                                                                          Certainly not wisdom, but goes some what to explain the current price on Biden being a bit a bit silly.
                                                                                          If Trump if the market action is that lobsided, the line moves.
                                                                                          Reminds me of the McGregor v Mayweather betting line.

                                                                                          Originally posted by Keane View Post

                                                                                          Between this and mellor's story I'm finding it very hard not to double my stake
                                                                                          Ditto. I'll let the Melbourne Cup play out. Hopefully millions of boozed up Aussies around betting terminals will be a few more Trump bets and push the line out to 1.6

                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                            RDIII on the biggest reverso in IPB history?
                                                                                            Happiness is not a goal; it is a by-product. ~Eleanor Roosevelt

                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                              Either the models are wrong or the markets are wrong. As somebody said the fact that 1.5 is available in the most traded market in the history of the XE is probably enough reason not to back him when the models are suggesting he should be 1.15 or w/e. I am not suggesting Biden won't win. I am just wondering if the 1.5 is the gift it's made out to be.

                                                                                              Comment




                                                                                                Hitch & Raoul - sleep well tonight my friends. All is good. Claire Byrne just spoke to Brendan O'Carroll in Florida and he's called it for Biden in a landslide victory.

                                                                                                What could possibly go wrong now?

                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                  Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

                                                                                                  I'm going to put up a long-ish post here explaining my rationale for why I think Biden is such a great price at the current odds. This is more for my own benefit but please feel free to rip me a new one where my thinking is fuzzy or just plain wrong. Or feel free to suggest a wager.

                                                                                                  My position is based on two primary factors - data and politics.

                                                                                                  Data:
                                                                                                  1. There is a huge gap between what the polls say and what the betting market says. The polls have consistently given Biden a 7-8 point+ national lead and (crucially) a consistent lead in most of the battleground states. Trump has not gotten a bounce anywhere in the electoral cycle - these numbers are locked in and it is very hard to see Trump turning them around in the volume that he requires.
                                                                                                  2. Polling methodology...."but the polls were wrong in 2016." Yes they were - but the pollsters have adjusted their methodology since 2016 and are, if anything, likely to be overweighting the Trump vote. The 2018 mid-terms used new methodology and were consistently correct. I believe we'll see the same in the Presidential election.
                                                                                                  3. Popularity. Trump has a very high net unfavourable rating. Consistently more than 10%. You cannot win a Presidential election with those numbers.
                                                                                                  4. The most reputable predictive sites are 538 and The Economist\YouGov. 538 has consistently being putting Biden at ~75%. The Economist\YouGov have Biden at over 80% for months now.
                                                                                                  Simply put, if we believe the data - which is telling a very consistent story (few undecided voters, Trump unpopular President, Biden well ahead) - Biden should be 1.25 (1\4) and Trump about 4.00 (3/1). This betting market is irrational with Biden available at ~1.85 and Trump only 2.25.

                                                                                                  Now onto:

                                                                                                  Politics:
                                                                                                  1. As I've said repeatedly, there is a massive difference between 2016 and 2020; 2016 was a referendum on Clinton. 2020 is a referendum on Trump. Trump cannot win a referendum on himself - he is a uniquely divisive figure who is even now doubling down on that divisiveness at a point when he should be trying to pivot to the centre and pull in some of the (few) undecided voters.
                                                                                                  2. Trump is trapped in a negative news cycle - covid, the economy, bad-mouthing the military, Woodward tapes etc. He is stuck playing defence and is doing it so ineptly that it almost looks like he is trying to sabotage his own campaign.
                                                                                                  3. Trump is no longer an unknown, exciting quantity - the American electorate know him well now and they don't like what they see. See point 3 in the Data section.
                                                                                                  4. Biden is not Hilary Clinton. She was just a terrible candidate who managed to demotivate her own supporters to such an extent that she depressed her own turnout. She also had a whiff of scandal about her that the Trump campaign exploited to the max. Biden by contrast has no real skeletons for Trump to seize on.
                                                                                                  5. There is no signficant third party candidate this time. Last time, third party candidates took ~5% of the vote and this (the Green candidate especially) was key to Trump narrowly winning states like PA, MI and WI.
                                                                                                  6. The Dems have a significant fundraising advantage.
                                                                                                  7. There will be significantly higher youth and minority voting this time, this heavily favours Biden.

                                                                                                  Overall, I think this is a crazy market and have taken a big position at average odds of ~1.87. I'll continue to add to it while the betting markets remain stable.

                                                                                                  I'm also looking at a few bets on the Biden margin of victory, which I expect to be large and potentially >150 EC votes as the Trump negative momentum grows.
                                                                                                  Read back over my original post 8 weeks back and still happy with my reasoning.

                                                                                                  My only real fear is that Hitch came to the same conclusion.
                                                                                                  "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                    Originally posted by Gimmeabreak View Post
                                                                                                    Either the models are wrong or the markets are wrong. As somebody said the fact that 1.5 is available in the most traded market in the history of the XE is probably enough reason not to back him when the models are suggesting he should be 1.15 or w/e. I am not suggesting Biden won't win. I am just wondering if the 1.5 is the gift it's made out to be.
                                                                                                    Seems to be the case that the recreational money is hugely for Trump.

                                                                                                    Any thoughts on this?
                                                                                                    "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                      Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

                                                                                                      Seems to be the case that the recreational money is hugely for Trump.

                                                                                                      Any thoughts on this?
                                                                                                      US casuals aren't betting into that market. But that doesn't mean it isn't feeding back somehow.

                                                                                                      Every sharp says Biden is a gift. Why haven't they been able to knock the market into shape.

                                                                                                      The polls were wrong last time, we've yet to see proof that they are right this time. Thats my concern.

                                                                                                      We are also in an anti trump echo chamber over here, but the fact that the popular vote is going to be an essential coin toss should be a warning as to how much we have been influenced by our media/twitter.

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                                                                                                        My biggest fear is if you ask a racist is he a racist he will more than likely deny it, ask a trump voter will he vote for trump, a similar shame becomes him.
                                                                                                        This too shall pass.

                                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                                          ...
                                                                                                          "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                                            ...
                                                                                                            "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                                              The fix is in.
                                                                                                              The only way this doesn't end up messy is if its an unambiguous landslide.

                                                                                                              Turning millions into thousands

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                                                                                                                Besides the future of USA, just on you guys alone heavy on Sleepy Joe...I 100% hope he smashes it out of the park.

                                                                                                                Since i love value, like a hendrick FGS bet, I have to put 50 on The Donald...
                                                                                                                This too shall pass.

                                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                                  The polls weren't really that wrong last time, they got the winner wrong in only 2 states and only another 3 were outside the margin of error of 3%. I think this year more people need to go from Biden to Trump. In 2016, hit was the undecideds that mattered more, a lot more people say they are decided. Polling at 51-47 seems amazingly better than polling at 43-39 like clinton. I know nothing about betting so can't really tell you anything about it apart from my view is that it is based on public perception for elections rather than actual polls etc, so why would it be as accurate as normal? I can definitely see that a betting market should call the winner of something well but would put elections at the bottom of the reliability list.
                                                                                                                  Last edited by Tar.Aldarion; 02-11-20, 22:47.

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                                                                                                                    Sleep well Bidenites. The HUGE turnout says ONE thing. Happy Christmas. The Whitehouse putting up perimeter fencing right now . It could get rough out there in the next while. Meanwhile putin is pulling the red helmet off himself.

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                                                                                                                      Originally posted by Tar.Aldarion View Post
                                                                                                                      The polls weren't really that wrong last time, they got the winner wrong in only 2 states and only another 3 were outside the margin of error of 3%. I think this year more people need to go from Biden to Trump. In 2016, hit was the undecideds that mattered more, a lot more people say they are decided. Polling at 51-47 seems amazingly better than polling at 43-39 like clinton. I know nothing about betting so can't really tell you anything about it apart from my view is that it is based on public perception for elections rather than actual polls etc, so why would it be as accurate as normal? I can definitely see that a betting market should call the winner of something well but would put elections at the bottom of the reliability list.
                                                                                                                      Because normally the sharp money will pull a market into line. So if lots of dumb money exists in a market then people who know better will bet that line until it reflects the actual data.

                                                                                                                      Like for instance in the last market, He was (Thanks Ole) 5.0 going into Election day despite as you point out him being far more statistically unlikely this time and priced at 3.0 which doesn't make much sense. Why isn't the smart money flooding in to take this price on the other side? I guess one could argue the market is just so big. I don't know the size of the BF market now but it was £200m a few days back when I read it was breaking records, What is that likely to be as a % of the world market, 10%? Takes a huge amount of money to move a market that size.

                                                                                                                      Edit - Wrong side of the odds.
                                                                                                                      Last edited by Opr; 02-11-20, 23:37.

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                                                                                                                        PP knows me well, logged in and flashing before my eyes was a Brady 300+passing and 3+ TD passes @6/1...the 50 went on that...
                                                                                                                        This too shall pass.

                                                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                                                          Originally posted by Opr View Post

                                                                                                                          Because normally the sharp money will pull a market into line. So if lots of dumb money exists in a market then people who know better will bet that line until it reflects the actual data.

                                                                                                                          Like for instance in the last market, I think Trump was 1.25 going into Election day despite as you point out him being far more statically unlikely this time and priced at 1.5 which doesn't make much sense. Why isn't the smart money flooding in to take this price down? I guess one could argue the market is just so big. I don't know the size of the BF market now but it was £200m a few days back when I read it was breaking records, What is that likely to be as a % of the world market, 10%? Takes a huge amount of money to move a market that size.
                                                                                                                          I found a bet i had 4 years ago and i had him at 4/1, think it was placed the night before.

                                                                                                                          Screenshot_20201103-002439.png
                                                                                                                          Last edited by oleras; 02-11-20, 23:26.
                                                                                                                          This too shall pass.

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