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    Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
    In an attempt to one up everyone, I went for a combo bet at 7/2 of Biden to win Texas, Florida, Nevada and Arizona
    That's a terrible bet. You can get 11/4 on Texas alone!
    "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

    Comment


      Originally posted by Tar.Aldarion View Post
      I'm not sure I've ever made a bet and not sure I want the first one to be due to a tip from RD
      But he does make me want to.




      How is this? I mean, I think 538 had Clinton/trump 70:30, it's not like that was statistically infeasible etc? Really the problem is not polling (which is not an indication of results as much as people think, rather a snapshot of current thinking before some ex golf pro endorses someone) but rather peoples widespread view on the math and trusting of punditry. Things that are less likely happen.
      I totally agree, perhaps "low probability events" was a tad strong but public perception in most circles would suggest it was a relatively low probability event even though we know it wasn't that unlikely.

      The sentiment of my posts was largely in agreement with you that events such as these occur frequently and as result don't require much of a shift in thinking inside or outside it's own domain.

      Betting on political events is relatively new concept, at least at this market size. Most of us follow the general premise of "The Market Knows"/"Market decides" but generally that market sentiment is driven by people who are actually directly involved in the market to some degree.

      In this situation you have those driving a market who in many respects could not be more disconnected from those who decide the result of that market. It's a relatively strange circumstance.

      Comment


        ...
        "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

        Comment


          I think a chess analogy is better. Less of a luck factor. Joe in a strong position on rightly expected to mate but Trump could pull a stunning combination of moves out of his hole or the sleepy lad might have a meltdown. Someone might even come along and knock the board over.
          Happiness is not a goal; it is a by-product. ~Eleanor Roosevelt

          Comment


            Originally posted by Wombatman View Post
            I think a chess analogy is better. Less of a luck factor. Joe in a strong position on rightly expected to mate but Trump could pull a stunning combination of moves out of his hole or the sleepy lad might have a meltdown. Someone might even come along and knock the board over.
            Half the pieces are off the board already though.
            "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

            Comment


              Originally posted by Tar.Aldarion View Post

              Heard the IKEA ones are good, or those ones that come in the post are half decent emma etc. If no expense spared I have the tempurpedic sensation luxe and it's amazing.
              https://www.arnotts.ie/furniture/bed...NSTANDARD.html

              Definitely go and lie on the mattresses if you can.
              We got the Ikea ones for all the beds when we moved.

              they are great

              Comment


                Emma is good, as is IKEA Morgedal: https://www.ikea.com/ie/en/p/morgeda...grey-80283788/

                My only complaint about memory foam is that they're very warm compared to other options. We have the two above and one gel type.

                Our house is A1-Rated air to water so it's close to impossible to dissipate the heat in the summer time.

                A memory foam mattress, even with a low tog duvet is still very warm when compared to gel so something to consider depending on your house.

                Comment


                  Originally posted by Tar.Aldarion View Post

                  Heard the IKEA ones are good, or those ones that come in the post are half decent emma etc. If no expense spared I have the tempurpedic sensation luxe and it's amazing.
                  https://www.arnotts.ie/furniture/bed...NSTANDARD.html

                  Definitely go and lie on the mattresses if you can.
                  Wow that is a spicy meatball! I think Shrap's ones are probably more in my price range - was aiming to spend around €1k on a 6ft

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by Murdrum View Post
                    .....
                    A memory foam mattress, even with a low tog duvet is still very warm when compared to gel so something to consider depending on your house.
                    +1 on the memory foam heat issue got rid of ours as its so uncomfortable in summer

                    Comment


                      Originally posted by Strewelpeter View Post
                      Another stage win for Sam Bennett Dan Martin stays in 3rd for GC, some going.
                      Fantastic. Good to see Dan Martin back to form, the Tour must have been tough for him sounds like he was in bits. Bennett I suspect will crush everyone whenever he wants for a couple of years now that he realises he's class.

                      Comment


                        ...
                        "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                        Comment


                          ...
                          "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                          Comment


                            ...
                            "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                            Comment


                              The good thing about simba and eve is that you get to try them for 100 nights no questions asked (I imagine it's the same in Ireland), so if they're not for you, send them back.

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by shrapnel View Post
                                The good thing about simba and eve is that you get to try them for 100 nights no questions asked (I imagine it's the same in Ireland), so if they're not for you, send them back.
                                Simba no longer operating in Ireland unfortunately it seems. Might try the Eve one and see how that goes.

                                Comment


                                  Originally posted by shrapnel View Post
                                  The good thing about simba and eve is that you get to try them for 100 nights no questions asked (I imagine it's the same in Ireland), so if they're not for you, send them back.
                                  Alright that's it. I didn't want to be indelicate on possible marital difficulties but what's with you having two mattresses?

                                  Comment


                                    Did everyone else know 'Czechia' and 'The Czech Republic' are the same place?
                                    Person...Woman...Man......Camera..TV

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                                      Originally posted by ComradeCollie View Post
                                      Did everyone else know 'Czechia' and 'The Czech Republic' are the same place?
                                      Yes, they rebranded a few years back.

                                      Seems to be a mitteleuropa equivalent of Mumbai-Bombay, Chennai-Madras or Kolkata-Calcutta. Very confusing for people with old atlases. Although I am guessing yours still firmly confirms the existence of the USSR and the DDR.
                                      "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                      Comment


                                        @Raoul, have you spotted any value in any Senate races?

                                        Or, more importantly, any good sweats.
                                        ​​​​​​
                                        I hold silver in tit for tat, and I love you for that

                                        Comment


                                          Originally posted by hotspur View Post

                                          Alright that's it. I didn't want to be indelicate on possible marital difficulties but what's with you having two mattresses?
                                          It's in the spare room. I don't sleep that well and am usually up reading and listening to music between 1 and 4, so that's where I go, then fall asleep again round 4 or 5 till 7.

                                          Basically I spend more time in that one than the other one so was tired of having a shitty mattress and bought an eve.

                                          Comment


                                            Originally posted by Lazare View Post
                                            @Raoul, have you spotted any value in any Senate races?

                                            Or, more importantly, any good sweats.
                                            ​​​​​​
                                            Haven't been looking really but it seems probable to me that Biden's margin of victory will be enough to engineer a Senate majority.

                                            The South Carolina race is a fun one: would be wonderful if that shitbag Lindsay Graham could get beat.
                                            "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                            Comment


                                              Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

                                              Yes, they rebranded a few years back.

                                              Seems to be a mitteleuropa equivalent of Mumbai-Bombay, Chennai-Madras or Kolkata-Calcutta. Very confusing for people with old atlases. Although I am guessing yours still firmly confirms the existence of the USSR and the DDR.
                                              Think I still have some Yugoslav dinar that isn't worth the paper it was printed on.
                                              Person...Woman...Man......Camera..TV

                                              Comment


                                                Originally posted by Keane View Post

                                                Wow that is a spicy meatball! I think Shrap's ones are probably more in my price range - was aiming to spend around €1k on a 6ft
                                                It's for the best or you are trapped for life no longer able to go back to lesser mattressi. I couldn't really tell any difference between the mail ones when researching them and you can't trust reviews online.

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                                                  So they had Belle Delphine on the H3 podcast. Didn't expect that to ever happen

                                                  Person...Woman...Man......Camera..TV

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                                                    Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

                                                    Haven't been looking really but it seems probable to me that Biden's margin of victory will be enough to engineer a Senate majority.

                                                    The South Carolina race is a fun one: would be wonderful if that shitbag Lindsay Graham could get beat.
                                                    Haven't looked at markets at all so no idea if it's value but I'd like a bet on Hegar in TX.

                                                    Might make a few small punts based on timezones to sweat the night out.
                                                    I hold silver in tit for tat, and I love you for that

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                                                      Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

                                                      Haven't been looking really but it seems probable to me that Biden's margin of victory will be enough to engineer a Senate majority.

                                                      The South Carolina race is a fun one: would be wonderful if that shitbag Lindsay Graham could get beat.
                                                      That was my outsideish shout. If Jaime Harrison beats him then I could see Harrison as a potential Presidential candidate come 2028.

                                                      Similar middle of the road views to Biden that people could get behind. Against Medicare for all, against packing the Supreme Court & against ending filibuster.

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                                                        TIPS for smuggling out worn out manky mattress so as to avoid the neighbours judging ..

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                                                          Originally posted by Solksjaer! View Post
                                                          TIPS for smuggling out worn out manky mattress so as to avoid the neighbours judging ..
                                                          Wait until Saturday and cut out 4x holes.

                                                          Go trick or treating as Trump toast. Come home without it.

                                                          It's probably brownish already.
                                                          I hold silver in tit for tat, and I love you for that

                                                          Comment


                                                            I stuck enough on Biden to cover a nice one anyway

                                                            Comment


                                                              Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                                              I stuck enough on Biden to cover a nice one anyway
                                                              Feeling some pressure now that you have all lumped on.

                                                              May have to stage a freak yachting accident if Trump binks.
                                                              "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                              Comment


                                                                It’s smashing BF records too. I imagine it’ll be close to €300m by Nov 3rd which would be almost a 50% bump on the last time.

                                                                Comment


                                                                  As Halloween approaches and SP has expounded on his love of Brownie McGhee, anyone with any kind of love of blues, psych horror, Alan Parker,. Mickey Rourke, Lisa Bonet etc can dig this...

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                                                                    Just the €250m matched on the Election on BF so far, nice few loots for Flutter

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                                                                      Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

                                                                      Feeling some pressure now that you have all lumped on.

                                                                      May have to stage a freak yachting accident if Trump binks.
                                                                      Ah, don't be worried on my account anyway I've been hemming and hawing about it for ages. Pretty sure it's my first and likely only bet this year. Brings up a nice memory of last year's only bet actually


                                                                      Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                                                      Should probably say nothing but I'm excited, I'll be up about 30k if the goalie wins the gong


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                                                                        Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

                                                                        Feeling some pressure now that you have all lumped on.

                                                                        May have to stage a freak yachting accident if Trump binks.
                                                                        You'll give yourself an ulcer . It's already over . I ran the numbers 8 months ago.

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                                                                          Originally posted by Lazare View Post

                                                                          Wait until Saturday and cut out 4x holes.

                                                                          Go trick or treating as Trump toast. Come home without it.

                                                                          It's probably brownish already.
                                                                          Not sure what colour it is. I think I've invented a new colour .
                                                                          actually Benny has it covered . Lisabonet

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                                                                            all this talk of mattresses - you spend such a % of your life in them - best to overspend - don't skimp

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                                                                              Originally posted by ComradeCollie View Post
                                                                              So they had Belle Delphine on the H3 podcast. Didn't expect that to ever happen

                                                                              Am I the only one who has been getting a diminishingly smaller percentage of your references over the past while?

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                                                                                On the principle of "crack them up before they crack you up" I think I'm going to be one of those cunts who puts up the Christmas tree in early November this year.

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                                                                                  No intention of getting involved but RD3 wore down another.

                                                                                  I decided that I don’t have the stomach for a big bet at 1.5 but I’m bullish on Biden so having played around with 538s map which shows average electoral college votes if candidate wins certain states: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...p/?cid=abcnews I landed on Biden 390-419 votes.

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                                                                                    This thread was a tough read today.

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                                                                                      Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

                                                                                      fair bit of 8/15 out there if you shop around.

                                                                                      The way things are going, I wouldn't be surprised if we can back Biden at 4/6-ish some time over the next 3 days.
                                                                                      Currently 1.56 on the TAB here...I may get my boots

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                                                                                        Originally posted by ComradeCollie View Post
                                                                                        So they had Belle Delphine on the H3 podcast. Didn't expect that to ever happen

                                                                                        She didn't really come across as you'd expect either.

                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                          Absolute nightmare fuel

                                                                                          https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...e_iOSApp_Other

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                                                                                            2.86 Holding firm..... #BidenCrimeFamily

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                                                                                              Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                                                                              Any mattress recommendations?
                                                                                              If you have revolut, Emma is doing up to 45% off
                                                                                              People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
                                                                                              Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner!
                                                                                              https://revolut.com/referral/jamesb8!G10D21

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                                                                                                Person...Woman...Man......Camera..TV

                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                  ...
                                                                                                  "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

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                                                                                                    Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                                                                                                    It seems when we write the story of this election the story will be that Trump was probably odds-on to be reelected until (1) he fucked up corona so bad, and became intimately identified with that fuck up by fueling so many conspiracy theories and demands to reopen the economy early, and (2) on a practical note that he allowed so much early voting to happen. The Republicans, fundamentally, require that not many people vote in order to be able to stay in office. But his hubris and vanity maybe felt that more votes equals more votes for him.
                                                                                                    I think he was going down anyway. The electorate were waiting in the bushes . He still had his base but the mood for contending with his shenanigans for the broader voters was lost. He wasnt repeating 2016 imo

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                                                                                                      My fear is less about his re-election and more about whether some of his decisions will have a very lasting impact even when he's gone.

                                                                                                      It feels as though some of his not so evident mismanagements may become far more evident during a 2nd term. One would hope Biden can steady the ship to avoid any long term issues.

                                                                                                      Arms embargo ends on Iran this month and having soured relationships further there via sanctions, more issues may arise.

                                                                                                      Massive underfunding of US state department and general greater militarisation of government. One crazy stat, US defense department has more military grocery packers than US state department has Foreign Service officers.

                                                                                                      Obamacare up for debate with Supreme Court next month which looks in worse shape now due Barrett.

                                                                                                      Obvious lots of other with Paris accords, deregulation of fossil fuel sector and relations with China.

                                                                                                      It's hard to imagine some of his decisions won't be quite painful long term even if he's not reelected.

                                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                                        Texas had gone over 9m votes cast i.e. beyond the total votes cast in 2016 and is looking at monster overall turnout. This likely to be replicated in Georgia, North Carolina, Florida.
                                                                                                        "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                                          Originally posted by PSV58 View Post
                                                                                                          Yesterday I was face to face with a huge rat dying a slow death from poison and too fucked to run away from me, I don't have a gun and wasn't up for hitting him with a spade. Nasty.
                                                                                                          Dirty little fucker revisited me a couple of times during the night with his beady little eyes pleading to me to finish him off.
                                                                                                          Turning millions into thousands

                                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                                            Originally posted by Murdrum View Post
                                                                                                            My fear is less about his re-election and more about whether some of his decisions will have a very lasting impact even when he's gone.

                                                                                                            It feels as though some of his not so evident mismanagements may become far more evident during a 2nd term. One would hope Biden can steady the ship to avoid any long term issues.

                                                                                                            Arms embargo ends on Iran this month and having soured relationships further there via sanctions, more issues may arise.

                                                                                                            Massive underfunding of US state department and general greater militarisation of government. One crazy stat, US defense department has more military grocery packers than US state department has Foreign Service officers.

                                                                                                            Obamacare up for debate with Supreme Court next month which looks in worse shape now due Barrett.

                                                                                                            Obvious lots of other with Paris accords, deregulation of fossil fuel sector and relations with China.

                                                                                                            It's hard to imagine some of his decisions won't be quite painful long term even if he's not reelected.
                                                                                                            Great points, for some reason here the actual human impact of his presidency tends to be overlooked in favour of betting odds (understandable) and arcane philosophical arguments (less so).

                                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                                              Something I've been thinking about recently is what would happen in the States if one of the parties imploded. Would the other one naturally split in two? It seems like they are only a couple of disasters away from becoming a one-party democracy, which obviously isn't really a democracy.

                                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                                Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                                                                                                                It seems when we write the story of this election the story will be that Trump was probably odds-on to be reelected until (1) he fucked up corona so bad, and became intimately identified with that fuck up by fueling so many conspiracy theories and demands to reopen the economy early, and (2) on a practical note that he allowed so much early voting to happen. The Republicans, fundamentally, require that not many people vote in order to be able to stay in office. But his hubris and vanity maybe felt that more votes equals more votes for him.
                                                                                                                Perhaps people realised that his infantile self obsession was not a good thing for them or the USA and found the reserves of humanity to get out and vote to relieve themselves of him.
                                                                                                                He made this election a headcount of racists, there is no argument about this; anyone who puts a tick in a box that allows Trump to stay in power is knowingly or unknowingly a racist. I'm optimistic but the stakes are so high I won't believe until there has been a smooth transition of power

                                                                                                                Despite all the gerrymandering and voter suppression pre election day turnout does appear to add some validity to your point about how much easier it is to vote there than here. Making it much easier to vote probably over a few days and much easier postal voting is something we should look at.
                                                                                                                Turning millions into thousands

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                                                                                                                    Two scumbag birds of a feather.
                                                                                                                    This may or may not be an original thought of my own.
                                                                                                                    All efforts were made to make this thought original but with the abundance of thoughts in the world the originality of this thought cannot be guaranteed.
                                                                                                                    The author is not liable for any issue arising from the platitudinous nature of this post.

                                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                                      He would likely have won if it wasn’t for Covid 19. That’s an awfully negative conclusion to make, but I don’t see how it’s avoided. An incumbent with the economy doing well has a massive default advantage.

                                                                                                                      The public health crisis exposed his lack of leadership but also the fundamental governance gaps created by his administration.

                                                                                                                      As to human impacts - it might not be discussed in the same way we don’t discuss the sky being blue. He’s stuffed the courts with a particularly extreme slate of judges. He’s put things like abortion and LGBTQ+ rights back in play judicially. He had no effective health plan so he’s fuelled destructive attempts to tear down the ACA. And he pushed through a particularly mad tax plan that makes Biden’s work all the more difficult.

                                                                                                                      And all of that pales in comparison to his desperate contribution to societal discourse; polarisation; accountability and confidence in the democratic process. A racist misogynistic lying scumbag fuck head who you wouldn’t give the time of day to in your ordinary life in one of the most prominent and powerful positions there are.

                                                                                                                      Therein lies the real problem: he probably would have been re elected if it wasn’t for an unlikely public health crisis and his incompetent handling of it. The trenchant defenses you read of him and his hateful agenda online are puzzling and repulsive. I mean over on boards I can only hope the likes of outlaw Pete are trolling or maybe paid or something for their daily contributions. But I know that many people are just long enveloped in social media rabbit holes that poison the mind. Biden winning doesn’t solve all of that. It’s a small victory though.
                                                                                                                      Last edited by LuckyLloyd; 30-10-20, 15:04.
                                                                                                                      "Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." - John Maynard Keynes

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                                                                                                                        I agree re the corona thing, when I first heard of it I thought well at least Trump is probably out. I don't think anybody on here (or most :P) need to be reminded of Trumps flaws on the daily, so I see no harm in people discussing odds or whatever the fuck. How can you talk of mattresses when children are starving etc.

                                                                                                                        I probably wouldn't attribute malice where narcissism fits the bill. For instance I doubt he cares about race or anything like that, he cares about himself.
                                                                                                                        Reminds me of my friends narcissistic mother, who only fed her or clothed her because of how she herself would be perceived by others.
                                                                                                                        Last edited by Tar.Aldarion; 30-10-20, 15:10.

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