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    Originally posted by Dice75 View Post

    You can have 500k on Biden @ 1.51 on betfair if you like
    That's an okay amount. I guess.

    Comment


      Originally posted by Dice75 View Post

      You can have 500k on Biden @ 1.51 on betfair if you like
      Somebody did! Two days ago.
      "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

      Comment


        Originally posted by hotspur View Post
        As a rule I don't really bet anymore, but if I were to go in on the election what are the kinds of limit online bookies have if any? I suppose it's the biggest betting event ever so not like a novelty political bet with low limits.
        The only site to restrict me was Betway, €999.
        "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

        Comment


          Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
          I just don't get the Biden odds. It's perplexing me no end. How is it 4/9.
          Because enough mugs are betting the other side.

          8/10 bets are still on Trump apparently.
          "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

          Comment


            I am absurdly confident that Biden wins. I think they'll carry the Senate too.

            To put it another way: if Trump wins then it would rock the fundamentals of how we analyse and predict public sentiment. Opinion polling and surveying sentiment is a foundational aspect of so much to do with politics, business, science and learning. If Trump were to win it would indicate that we aren't capable of it in the modern world anywhere near the extent we think we are. That would be quite frightening tbh - never mind four more years of this nonsense.
            "Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." - John Maynard Keynes

            Comment


              Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

              The only site to restrict me was Betway, €999.
              Alright just went in. If you ever get out of your gig there's a role in marketing for you. Wore me down with daily updates on how I would be a fool not to (but still kind of a fool taking half the price you originally were taking).

              Decided to go in and will use the winnings to fly to New York when it's possible, walk around it, and bask in the post-Trump era of a country I love.

              Comment


                Originally posted by LuckyLloyd View Post
                I am absurdly confident that Biden wins. I think they'll carry the Senate too.

                To put it another way: if Trump wins then it would rock the fundamentals of how we analyse and predict public sentiment..
                I obviously think Biden will win, part of me is funking for a Trump victory for this reason. It would be the epistemological event of a lifetime.

                Between that and the cluster fuck of models and public pronouncements about COVID. If it happened, 2020 would be a big reexamination of our confidence in our understanding.
                Last edited by Denny Crane; 28-10-20, 23:18.

                Comment


                  Originally posted by Denny Crane View Post

                  I obviously think Biden will win, part of me is funking for a Trump victory for this reason. It would be the epistemological event of a lifetime.

                  Between that and the cluster fuck of models and public pronouncements about COVID. If it happened, 2020 would be a big reexamination of our confidence in our understanding.


                  Need a GTFO emoji

                  Comment


                    It figures eh.

                     

                    Comment


                      Well there's no way that BOTH Lloyd and I could be wrong. It's just cosmically not feasible.
                      "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by Solksjaer! View Post
                        It figures eh.
                        Both undefeated

                        Comment


                          Originally posted by Denny Crane View Post

                          I obviously think Biden will win, part of me is funking for a Trump victory for this reason. It would be the epistemological event of a lifetime.

                          Between that and the cluster fuck of models and public pronouncements about COVID. If it happened, 2020 would be a big reexamination of our confidence in our understanding.
                          Why would you want that...philosophically? I do get it that smart people young (ish ) men like yourself who profess support for Trump were always partially in it for the lols over the past half decade. I also don't ignore that as much as Trump is an "imperfect instrument" (as Bannon put it) he represented the other side of societal discourse and a pushback against a culture politics consensus that had lost the run of itself (not that they've derailed that train at all, but it's another topic).

                          But what do you have to benefit from a fundamental inability to predict events like this? How could a dagger through our confidence in the fundamentals of how we interpret and analyse human preference be a good thing?

                          The Libs were "owned" the fallout and outrage was fun for a couple of years, I do appreciate that on some level. But an even deeper and more fundamental prediction error this time around would surely be well beyond funny? Or not...genuinely interested to understand your point of view here.
                          "Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." - John Maynard Keynes

                          Comment


                            ...
                            "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by LuckyLloyd View Post

                              Why would you want that...philosophically? I do get it that smart people young (ish ) men like yourself who profess support for Trump were always partially in it for the lols over the past half decade. I also don't ignore that as much as Trump is an "imperfect instrument" (as Bannon put it) he represented the other side of societal discourse and a pushback against a culture politics consensus that had lost the run of itself (not that they've derailed that train at all, but it's another topic).

                              But what do you have to benefit from a fundamental inability to predict events like this? How could a dagger through our confidence in the fundamentals of how we interpret and analyse human preference be a good thing?

                              The Libs were "owned" the fallout and outrage was fun for a couple of years, I do appreciate that on some level. But an even deeper and more fundamental prediction error this time around would surely be well beyond funny? Or not...genuinely interested to understand your point of view here.
                              It's more about an illumination of our over-confidence, rather than hoping for an inability to predict.

                              The light remains the light, even though a blind man cannot see it.

                              Does putting Trump on a 3% chance seem realistic?

                              SPOILER

                              https://i.ibb.co/LvG8q1c/Chmy20p-XIAAt-LKY-1.jpg

                              https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/03/u...nton-lead.html



                              It's only a few months since the FT published this study from Cambridge. Things are bonkers.

                              Coronavirus may have infected half of UK population — Oxford study
                              Last edited by Denny Crane; 29-10-20, 01:06.

                              Comment


                                If it was such a sure thing, ye boys should be remortaging...ill be keeping well enough away, scary thought its not even nailed on with secret polls.
                                This too shall pass.

                                Comment


                                  Originally posted by oleras View Post
                                  If it was such a sure thing, ye boys should be remortaging...ill be keeping well enough away, scary thought its not even nailed on with secret polls.
                                  The man held a rally last night for seniors on an air field, bussed them in, then in an effort to get cars away, they made the access road outbound only - so the buses could only make one trip - and couldn't get back to the site. Leaving 100s of oaps to walk 4 miles in frigid conditions back to their cars.
                                  A few ended up in hospital.
                                  In any normal world, that would be a terminal gaffe. Its probably not the dumbest thing in the last 24 hours. From next week he'll be a lame duck hawking trump branded pardons on ebay or whatever dwindling TV airtime he gets in a last desperate grab for cash before the vultures descend.
                                  People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
                                  Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner!
                                  https://revolut.com/referral/jamesb8!G10D21

                                  Comment


                                    Originally posted by hotspur View Post

                                    Alright just went in. If you ever get out of your gig there's a role in marketing for you. Wore me down with daily updates on how I would be a fool not to (but still kind of a fool taking half the price you originally were taking).

                                    Decided to go in and will use the winnings to fly to New York when it's possible, walk around it, and bask in the post-Trump era of a country I love.
                                    His ability to apply pressure to gamble by sheer attrition is otherworldly.

                                    The ability is most evident during the US Election and Cheltenham tipping contest.

                                    He'd do great in marketing but I think RD3 would truly shine as a late night host for FoxyBingo or virtual roulette.

                                    Comment


                                      Originally posted by Denny Crane View Post

                                      It's more about an illumination of our over-confidence, rather than hoping for an inability to predict.

                                      The light remains the light, even though a blind man cannot see it.

                                      ]
                                      Precisely this

                                      Although I feel low probability events happen frequently and I don't think this fundamentally alters our understanding of much in a particularly profound manner.
                                      It should certainly raise additional inquiry regarding certain predictive blindspots.

                                      I read a great piece by Tetlock on structuring US foreign policy using a combination of scenario analysis and probabilistic reasoning.

                                      No mention of Trump but FWIW his prediction experts have a 68% probability assigned to a vaccine for Covid by March 31st 2021.

                                      Comment


                                        2.86, Red wave is coming

                                        Comment


                                          Originally posted by Murdrum View Post

                                          His ability to apply pressure to gamble by sheer attrition is otherworldly.

                                          The ability is most evident during the US Election and Cheltenham tipping contest.

                                          He'd do great in marketing but I think RD3 would truly shine as a late night host for FoxyBingo or virtual roulette.
                                          In fairness to him for Cheltenham, he is looking for mug money ..eg ME .

                                          For the US election. Hes is trying to give money back to the mugs

                                          Method .

                                          Comment


                                            Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                                            Man, imagine waking up to Trump winning, and he cost you your case loots.
                                            Silence man!
                                            "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                            Comment


                                              Originally posted by Murdrum View Post
                                              He'd do great in marketing but I think RD3 would truly shine as a late night host for FoxyBingo or virtual roulette.
                                              Excellent idea for the second job I'll need if Trump wins this sucker.
                                              "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                              Comment


                                                Been a while since i logged on here, but i had a feeling there would be chat about the great money giveaway. I such a betting nit re prices, its knowing when to pull the trigger. 1.54 on betfair now. Trigger finger is getting itchy now.
                                                sigpic
                                                Longshotvalue.com

                                                Comment


                                                  Originally posted by Dice75 View Post
                                                  2.86, Red wave is coming
                                                  2.82....
                                                  "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                  Comment


                                                    Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

                                                    Excellent idea for the second job I'll need if Trump wins this sucker.
                                                    I mentioned the Pennsylvania ruling a couple of days ago. It seems Barrett didn't have time to review the ruling so its stand at 4-4 ergo votes posted by Nov 3rd-even non postmarked- are eligible to be counted for up to 3 days afterwards.

                                                    However Alito said that he thinks the original decision violates the constitution and the case may be reexamined post election.

                                                    In some ways-especially as punter, I think that might be a worse outcome than simply ruling against because it may open up a pandoras box post election.

                                                    Comment


                                                      Originally posted by Murdrum View Post

                                                      I mentioned the Pennsylvania ruling a couple of days ago. It seems Barrett didn't have time to review the ruling so its stand at 4-4 ergo votes posted by Nov 3rd-even non postmarked- are eligible to be counted for up to 3 days afterwards.

                                                      However Alito said that he thinks the original decision violates the constitution and the case may be reexamined post election.

                                                      In some ways-especially as punter, I think that might be a worse outcome than simply ruling against because it may open up a pandoras box post election.
                                                      The race needs to be (a) really close (like, a gap of a few hundred votes) in PA, and (b) for PA to be the tipping point for any of this to be relevant.
                                                      "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                      Comment


                                                        Originally posted by Denny Crane View Post

                                                        I obviously think Biden will win, part of me is funking for a Trump victory for this reason. It would be the epistemological event of a lifetime.

                                                        Between that and the cluster fuck of models and public pronouncements about COVID. If it happened, 2020 would be a big reexamination of our confidence in our understanding.
                                                        What? According to the most reasonable models, Trump's chances of winning are roughly equivalent to hitting an inside straight.

                                                        Now, if you were sitting at a poker table and someone bet the case loots on their hand v someone drawing to an inside straight, and that inside straight hit, would you consider that to be a fundamental challenge to our understanding of risk and predictive modelling?
                                                        You are technically correct...the best kind of correct
                                                        World Record Holder for Long Distance Soul Reads: May 7th 2011

                                                        Comment


                                                          Originally posted by Denny Crane View Post

                                                          It's more about an illumination of our over-confidence, rather than hoping for an inability to predict.
                                                          Things sure are are full on bonkers but after a Trump win it will not be a question of how wrong the polling was but how the fix was put in.
                                                          Turning millions into thousands

                                                          Comment


                                                            Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

                                                            The race needs to be (a) really close (like, a gap of a few hundred votes) in PA, and (b) for PA to be the tipping point for any of this to be relevant.
                                                            Well on B, according to 538 and The Economist, PA is the most important state in relation to changes in the probability of the result.

                                                            On A, I don't know if it simply means a few hundred votes but given it's just outside the margin of error, it's not non-zero.

                                                            Nevertheless, that wasn't as much my point as was the idea that it indicates the willingness of the Supreme Court to investigate results post election which could potentially delay an official result. Unlikely yes but not off the table.

                                                            As I said, I'd be hesitant as a punter so I'd be exiting the market early and not waiting for an official result.

                                                            Comment


                                                              Originally posted by Kayroo View Post

                                                              What? According to the most reasonable models, Trump's chances of winning are roughly equivalent to hitting an inside straight.

                                                              Now, if you were sitting at a poker table and someone bet the case loots on their hand v someone drawing to an inside straight, and that inside straight hit, would you consider that to be a fundamental challenge to our understanding of risk and predictive modelling?
                                                              If I saw the other guy doing a victory lap before the river was dealt I'd suspect he hadn't played much poker.

                                                              Economist is 4%? A large selection of the population is treating it as 1%. There were models that had Clinton at 99%. I think claiming probabilities that are smaller than the error bars shows a lack of understanding of risk and predictive modeling.

                                                              Even just reconciling the betting market versus polling & models is going to take some doing.
                                                              Last edited by Denny Crane; 29-10-20, 10:42.

                                                              Comment


                                                                Originally posted by Denny Crane View Post

                                                                Economist is 4%? A large selection of the population is treating it as 1%. There were models that had Clinton at 99%. I think claiming probabilities that are smaller than the error bars shows a lack of understanding of risk and predictive modeling.

                                                                Even just reconciling the betting market versus polling & models is going to take some doing.
                                                                If Trump 2020 occurs then we have 3 low probability events in a similar domain-Brexit & Trump 2016- which certainly call into question the validity of the current methodologies used to predict political events.

                                                                However the idea of it being the epistemological event of our lifetime or that it fundamentally changes the way in which we look at business, science & education is a little histrionic to me.

                                                                If it occurs given the general sentiment then of course it is worthy of further review but I don't believe it's that big of a shock or that the fundamentals of qualitative research across all domains need investigation as a result.

                                                                Comment


                                                                  is a little histrionic to me
                                                                  Not for solskjaer


                                                                  Comment


                                                                    Nothing wrong with histrionics, it get’s you many an unwarranted penalty J

                                                                    Irrespective of the attitude of looking this via probability models and shake ups , most of Denny’s Trump posts over the past 4 years have been that of an ‘admirer’ . Ok, for someone with such an obvious lack of emotional and intellectual nous, TRUMP is a MAJOR overachiever in becoming president. I’ll give him that. However there is very little to admire. In fact he is a dangerous threat to all the progress made over the past 30/40 years. He is a man for the 50s, where he would no doubt been shot. The past few months he has been campaigning for the democrats unbeknownst to himself and his questionable enablers. A TRUMP victory will defy logic itself. All the signs are there of a landslide defeat. There is no need to
                                                                    project figures , or look too much into this. The electorate are out in droves , there Isn’t a snowballs chance in hell they have come out to ensure he says in power. The only route he has back in is disruption and chaos and NOT the actual election itself. He is already TOAST.


                                                                    Comment




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                                                                        Always said Tiger was the GOAT

                                                                        I wonder what Jack has in common with Trump

                                                                        Never read your heros tweets .

                                                                        Comment


                                                                          Originally posted by Solksjaer! View Post
                                                                          Always said Tiger was the GOAT

                                                                          I wonder what Jack has in common with Trump

                                                                          Never read your heros tweets .
                                                                          Unfollowed Hitch a long time ago

                                                                          Comment


                                                                            Originally posted by Denny Crane View Post

                                                                            If I saw the other guy doing a victory lap before the river was dealt I'd suspect he hadn't played much poker.

                                                                            Economist is 4%? A large selection of the population is treating it as 1%. There were models that had Clinton at 99%. I think claiming probabilities that are smaller than the error bars shows a lack of understanding of risk and predictive modeling.

                                                                            Even just reconciling the betting market versus polling & models is going to take some doing.
                                                                            It's going to be a lot of fun watching the betting market over the the next week. It basically hasn't moved for about 10 days with Biden hovering in around 1.5 and Trump around 2.9.

                                                                            At some point, we're going to see a severe tightening as facts on the ground become solidified. One thing we do see is that the betting market appears to be pretty impervious to polling news. For example, there's a great poll out for Biden this morning; A+ rated Marist have him +4 in Florida. Not a flicker in the betting.

                                                                            So far, 77m Americans have voted. We're probably looking at record turnout - that is never, ever good for an unpopular incumbent. The signs seem to be that the Dems are mobilising their vote much more efficiently than four years ago, when Trump won by a whisker in a fluke result. As I have posted ad nauseum, the circumstances of this election are light years removed from that fluke - this is a referendum on Trump.

                                                                            So, for our predictions competition, I predict the following EC result: Biden 413, Trump 125.
                                                                            "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                            Comment


                                                                              Looking at early voting trends:
                                                                              1. Texas now at 94% of the 2016 vote total
                                                                              2. North Carolina at 82%
                                                                              3. Georgia at 83%
                                                                              so we'll see record-breaking turnout in all of these swing states - guaranteed and will probably have happened before E-Day. If you had told me 12 months ago that any of these would be in play, I would have said you were nuts. Now I think they're all going Blue.
                                                                              "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                              Comment


                                                                                Originally posted by DeadParrot View Post

                                                                                The man held a rally last night for seniors on an air field, bussed them in, then in an effort to get cars away, they made the access road outbound only - so the buses could only make one trip - and couldn't get back to the site. Leaving 100s of oaps to walk 4 miles in frigid conditions back to their cars.
                                                                                A few ended up in hospital.
                                                                                In any normal world, that would be a terminal gaffe. Its probably not the dumbest thing in the last 24 hours. From next week he'll be a lame duck hawking trump branded pardons on ebay or whatever dwindling TV airtime he gets in a last desperate grab for cash before the vultures descend.
                                                                                Elf2Z4aVgAI7E1O?format=png&name=small.png
                                                                                Turning millions into thousands

                                                                                Comment


                                                                                  Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                                                  Looking at early voting trends:
                                                                                  1. Texas now at 94% of the 2016 vote total
                                                                                  2. North Carolina at 82%
                                                                                  3. Georgia at 83%
                                                                                  so we'll see record-breaking turnout in all of these swing states - guaranteed and will probably have happened before E-Day. If you had told me 12 months ago that any of these would be in play, I would have said you were nuts. Now I think they're all going Blue.

                                                                                  When they all wake up maybe the price will change. Ive went with the 1.54 on betfair , hoping its the max or near it. Ive added 2 zeros to my normal bet so sweat time.
                                                                                  sigpic
                                                                                  Longshotvalue.com

                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                    In other news, the Johnny Depp libel trial ruling is due on Monday https://news.sky.com/story/johnny-de...-week-12115862
                                                                                    Person...Woman...Man......Camera..TV

                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                      Corbyn suspended by labour

                                                                                      Twitter and popcorn for the afternoon
                                                                                      Turning millions into thousands

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                                                                                        Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                                                        Looking at early voting trends:
                                                                                        1. Texas now at 94% of the 2016 vote total
                                                                                        2. North Carolina at 82%
                                                                                        3. Georgia at 83%
                                                                                        so we'll see record-breaking turnout in all of these swing states - guaranteed and will probably have happened before E-Day. If you had told me 12 months ago that any of these would be in play, I would have said you were nuts. Now I think they're all going Blue.
                                                                                        Goddamn you. Your bloody nonstop posting sucked me in to betting on this election. 1st time I bet on politics.

                                                                                        No beast so fierce but knows some touch of pity, but I know none, therefore am no beast.

                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                          Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                                                          Looking at early voting trends:
                                                                                          1. Texas now at 94% of the 2016 vote total
                                                                                          2. North Carolina at 82%
                                                                                          3. Georgia at 83%
                                                                                          so we'll see record-breaking turnout in all of these swing states - guaranteed and will probably have happened before E-Day. If you had told me 12 months ago that any of these would be in play, I would have said you were nuts. Now I think they're all going Blue.
                                                                                          Is blue the colour for team Kanye.

                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                            I bought my first cookbook in effort not to fall off the wagon during the current situation: https://www.easons.com/eat-up-raise-...SABEgLxFPD_BwE

                                                                                            Nutritionist for the Dubs and Leinster Rugby

                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                              https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sour...Li5CLd&ampcf=1

                                                                                              Prime suspect IMO

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                                                                                                Any mattress recommendations?

                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                  Originally posted by Murdrum View Post

                                                                                                  Well on B, according to 538 and The Economist, PA is the most important state in relation to changes in the probability of the result.

                                                                                                  On A, I don't know if it simply means a few hundred votes but given it's just outside the margin of error, it's not non-zero.

                                                                                                  Nevertheless, that wasn't as much my point as was the idea that it indicates the willingness of the Supreme Court to investigate results post election which could potentially delay an official result. Unlikely yes but not off the table.

                                                                                                  As I said, I'd be hesitant as a punter so I'd be exiting the market early and not waiting for an official result.
                                                                                                  Bookies pay out if Biden becomes president. Do these models take into account external factors, like him dying or a disputed result, or are they only looking at his chance of winning based polling trends?
                                                                                                  Happiness is not a goal; it is a by-product. ~Eleanor Roosevelt

                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                    Originally posted by Wombatman View Post

                                                                                                    Bookies pay out if Biden becomes president. Do these models take into account external factors, like him dying or a disputed result, or are they only looking at his chance of winning based polling trends?
                                                                                                    It's based on EC results.

                                                                                                    Things like faithless electors are thus n/a.
                                                                                                    "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                      Originally posted by Wombatman View Post

                                                                                                      Bookies pay out if Biden becomes president. Do these models take into account external factors, like him dying or a disputed result, or are they only looking at his chance of winning based polling trends?
                                                                                                      I listened to a podcast with Silver(538) a while ago and he said in it that their models they don't consider Covid death(around time Trump diagnosed) or disputed results.

                                                                                                      He describes the models here: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...e-of-covid-19/

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                                                                                                        Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                                                                                        Any mattress recommendations?
                                                                                                        Heard the IKEA ones are good, or those ones that come in the post are half decent emma etc. If no expense spared I have the tempurpedic sensation luxe and it's amazing.
                                                                                                        https://www.arnotts.ie/furniture/bed...NSTANDARD.html

                                                                                                        Definitely go and lie on the mattresses if you can.

                                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                                          Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                                                                                          Any mattress recommendations?
                                                                                                          we have a simba and an eve, and can't recommend them highly enough. they suit us perfectly. Eve slightly softer than simba but love them both. definitely a step up from Ikea ones

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                                                                                                            I just put a rather large bet on Biden at 4 / 9. I think the price is absolutely ridiculous given the data we have to hand.
                                                                                                            "Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." - John Maynard Keynes

                                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                                              Originally posted by Solksjaer! View Post

                                                                                                              In fairness to him for Cheltenham, he is looking for mug money ..eg ME .

                                                                                                              For the US election. Hes is trying to give money back to the mugs

                                                                                                              Method .
                                                                                                              Speaking of Cheltenham, I see my hero from the tipping competition running in a Listed Stakes at Lingiled today. No good but any excuse to post this to annoy nicnicnic & DP

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                                                                                                                I'm not sure I've ever made a bet and not sure I want the first one to be due to a tip from RD
                                                                                                                But he does make me want to.


                                                                                                                Originally posted by Murdrum View Post

                                                                                                                If Trump 2020 occurs then we have 3 low probability events in a similar domain-Brexit & Trump 2016- which certainly call into question the validity of the current methodologies used to predict political events.

                                                                                                                However the idea of it being the epistemological event of our lifetime or that it fundamentally changes the way in which we look at business, science & education is a little histrionic to me.

                                                                                                                If it occurs given the general sentiment then of course it is worthy of further review but I don't believe it's that big of a shock or that the fundamentals of qualitative research across all domains need investigation as a result.
                                                                                                                How is this? I mean, I think 538 had Clinton/trump 70:30, it's not like that was statistically infeasible etc? Really the problem is not polling (which is not an indication of results as much as people think, rather a snapshot of current thinking before some ex golf pro endorses someone) but rather peoples widespread view on the math and trusting of punditry. Things that are less likely happen.

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                                                                                                                  Originally posted by LuckyLloyd View Post
                                                                                                                  I just put a rather large bet on Biden at 4 / 9. I think the price is absolutely ridiculous given the data we have to hand.
                                                                                                                  fair bit of 8/15 out there if you shop around.

                                                                                                                  The way things are going, I wouldn't be surprised if we can back Biden at 4/6-ish some time over the next 3 days.
                                                                                                                  "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                                    Another stage win for Sam Bennett Dan Martin stays in 3rd for GC, some going.
                                                                                                                    Turning millions into thousands

                                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                                      Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

                                                                                                                      fair bit of 8/15 out there if you shop around.

                                                                                                                      The way things are going, I wouldn't be surprised if we can back Biden at 4/6-ish some time over the next 3 days.
                                                                                                                      jumped in as well at that price, now we're bound to lose

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                                                                                                                        ...
                                                                                                                        "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

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                                                                                                                          It does become a bit tone deaf at a certain point to say 'well it's a one outer on the river' or 'it's an inside straight on the river' - therefore 'if you think this is seismic you just don't understand probability'. Trump hit an Ace after being all in preflop with Ax vs KK last time out. That definitely happens. But this time he comes in with nothing near as strong as Ax and a massive amount of effort has gone into reworking predictive models to better understand state variations, the nature and composition of likely voters, how certain popular vote margins nationally don't take away electoral college outs as much as we expect etc, etc. So whatever Trump is drawing to, it isn't 2016 and we don't or shouldn't have 5 unknown cards that can help him get there.

                                                                                                                          If he does it again. Against much more overwhelming odds. With an actual political record. During a public health crisis which has created a weak economy. With the approval rates he holds. Then it truly is a massive repudiation of all that we thought we knew.

                                                                                                                          And this is not a good place or one we should want to be in. A candidate like Trump in a context like 2020 really shouldn't be re elected. And if he is to be re elected, we really should be able to predict it. Or, at least, we shouldn't deduce a <5% chance of it happening. We need to be able to predict things (and a political election is hardly the most complex thing to analyse and predict) and we need to have some public confidence in those predictions and we need enough people interacting with the system so that prediction is possible. This is all tightly coupled to the implications of a Trump presidency in terms of the policies it might pursue, etc. If he wins now and goes another four years the "post truth" #fakenews destabilisation of societal discourse will take us places we really don't want to go imo.
                                                                                                                          "Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." - John Maynard Keynes

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