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    Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

    Yeah, I've been looking at his analysis (he seems fixated with Texas which tells me he thinks something momentous is happening there).
    I can understand why, 82% of votes cast in 2016 have been cast already in Texas. Given that 2m more Democrats than Republicans have registered for early voting in battleground states(that record voter registration) as well as 3 times more Democrats have voted than Republicans in Pennsylvania, it appears Texas might be close.

    Comment


      Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

      Yeah, I've been looking at his analysis (he seems fixated with Texas which tells me he thinks something momentous is happening there).
      He also seems to be hinting at unreleased internal polling being not very promising for Toast.

      This is coming at a time when the jokeshop pollsters like jack90210's favourites Rasmussen are coming out with ever more detached from reality 'race is tightening' stuff. With the number of early votes cast by those supporting Biden I imagine they're worried about GOP voters getting too demoralised to turn up. Bad news for the senate race from their POV I imagine.

      ​​​

      Comment


        The incumbent has pressed self destruct . No need to panic reading conspiracy theories. There is close to zero chance he gets 4 more years . The sheer weight of voter turnout will crush him if not already. I have a very posh bottle of vino on hand these past 6 months to toast out the fucker . The demos going to hit 300+ seats .

        Comment


          I just can't get that last scene from David Simon's TV adaptation of the Plot against America out of my mind.

          I'm not relaxing until I see him perp walked in a bright orange jump suit.
          Turning millions into thousands

          Comment


            Originally posted by Strewelpeter View Post
            I'm not relaxing until I see him perp walked in a bright orange jump suit.
            You can be guaranteed that will not happen.
            "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

            Comment


              Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

              You can be guaranteed that will not happen.
              It's necessary to prevent him or the daughter he is creepy about getting in again, but yeah its extremely unlikely.

              Turning millions into thousands

              Comment


                Originally posted by Strewelpeter View Post

                It's necessary to prevent him or the daughter he is creepy about getting in again, but yeah its extremely unlikely.
                I could see another 'Ford pardons Nixon' event here.

                Or some kind of deal that would see prosecutions dropped (ideally in exchange for 'fuck off out of public life for ever and don't let the door hit you in the ass in your way out'). I really can't see any way that a former Prez ends up in the clink.
                "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                Comment


                  MAGA 2.90

                  EDIT - how the fuck do you post a tweet here anymore?

                  Comment


                    Dice: Just the "Twitter" button over the digits at the end

                    Last edited by Murdrum; 27-10-20, 12:14.

                    Comment


                      Well, that seals it really. Might as well give up.
                      "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by Strewelpeter View Post
                        Ship the first marathon.

                        Ridic slow even for an oul lad at 4:49 on the watch and we won't even look at the lapsed time as it wouldn't have happened at all only I had to veer off my planned 30k route to go home and have a crap. It was only after that the plan to go the distance emerged. Last 10k was an absolute hope, one tough hour.
                        Congrats Tony. Was it a race or just a solo run.
                        Honeslty don't think I could bring myself to done that.

                        Comment


                          I've been trying since last week to cancel sky. Either get disconnected straight away as no-one is available or on indefinite hold. I've even DM'd them on twitter. It's like they've just disappeared off the face of a cliff. I understand that it's tough with WFH but this is ridiculous.

                          Satnav are ya around or able to help?

                          Comment


                            The Field playing out in Cork yesterday morning is particularly grim.
                            Details emerging are awful, and rather confusing. Dispute over land and a will. I presumed that the younger son attacked the other two due to a grievance. But IT reporting that the father and son shot the other one, and then both wound up shot themselves.

                            Gardaí say they are keeping an open mind on what triggered the tragedy but say they are inquiring whether the shootings may have been related to a dispute over a will which may have seen younger son, Diarmuid miss out on a share of the 150 acre family farm.

                            Reports suggested Diarmuid felt aggrieved at this.

                            The tragedy began on Monday morning when Tadhg and Diarmuid went into Mark’s bedroom in the house sometime after 6.30am and one or both of them shot him.

                            Ms O’Sullivan fled the house and went to neighbour to raise the alarm, telling them that her husband and son had shot her other son.

                            Comment


                              @Strewel

                              Would love to hear a trip report on the run please.
                              I know you had originally planned to do 30k and interested in how you prepare for that distance.
                              Questions like do you carry water , food, pain levels, fatigue etc. Are there thoughts where you just go "sod it I'm stopping"

                              Thoughts on tackling a marathon again?

                              Comment


                                ...
                                "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                Comment


                                  Originally posted by Murdrum View Post
                                  Dice: Just the "Twitter" button over the digits at the end

                                  Thats what i always did with no bother but I dont have a "twitter" button anymore that I can find anyway

                                  Comment


                                    Originally posted by Mellor View Post
                                    The Field playing out in Cork yesterday morning is particularly grim.
                                    Details emerging are awful, and rather confusing. Dispute over land and a will. I presumed that the younger son attacked the other two due to a grievance. But IT reporting that the father and son shot the other one, and then both wound up shot themselves.
                                    I feel it's the type of situation that people should not be speculating about on social media. It seems like a situation that calls for a little bit of tact.

                                    I briefly read some of the boards thread -which has asked for no speculation- where people place the "I'm not speculating" caveat even though they are clearly speculating.

                                    It's grim enough without people speculating about the circumstances.

                                    Comment


                                      Originally posted by Murdrum View Post

                                      I feel it's the type of situation that people should not be speculating about on social media. It seems like a situation that calls for a little bit of tact.

                                      I briefly read some of the boards thread -which has asked for no speculation- where people place the "I'm not speculating" caveat even though they are clearly speculating.

                                      It's grim enough without people speculating about the circumstances.
                                      Not to add to the grimness, but none of them were professional farmers (at least as reported by RTE) so that made it even more sad and baffling if it was indeed a 'dispute over land'
                                      "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                      Comment


                                        Originally posted by Dice75 View Post

                                        Thats what i always did with no bother but I dont have a "twitter" button anymore that I can find anyway
                                        If you are missing the 2nd and 3rd lines click on the A and it will show them

                                        Person...Woman...Man......Camera..TV

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                                          Originally posted by coillcam View Post
                                          I've been trying since last week to cancel sky. Either get disconnected straight away as no-one is available or on indefinite hold. I've even DM'd them on twitter. It's like they've just disappeared off the face of a cliff. I understand that it's tough with WFH but this is ridiculous.

                                          Satnav are ya around or able to help?
                                          Pm sent
                                          Her sky-ness
                                          © 5starpool

                                          Comment


                                            Originally posted by Mellor View Post
                                            Congrats Tony. Was it a race or just a solo run.
                                            Honeslty don't think I could bring myself to done that.
                                            Originally posted by dinekes View Post
                                            @Strewel

                                            Would love to hear a trip report on the run please.
                                            Posted in the running thread
                                            Turning millions into thousands

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                                              Comment


                                                Originally posted by SatNav View Post

                                                Pm sent
                                                I expect coillcam to be on an upgraded package within 24 hours

                                                Comment


                                                  Originally posted by Kayroo View Post

                                                  Dave Wasserman is the one I'd be taking a look at RDIII.

                                                  He, along with 538, was the canary in the coalmine last time for Trump. Cook Political have been more in line with the actual campaigns in giving less weight to national and state polls and much higher weight to district polling. In 2016 Wasserman pointed out that the district polling was setting off all sorts of alarms for Clinton in the last 3 weeks. Taking the same measure this time and the advantage for Biden seems far far more stable and, if anything, some of the State polls might be underselling it.

                                                  Comes with the same caveat re: voter turnouts and election tampering but he's as bullish as I've ever seen him and this is NOT a man prone to jumping the gun.
                                                  well, your guy has made his mind up:

                                                  "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

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                                                    Some batshit crazy lineup. 2020.

                                                    Person...Woman...Man......Camera..TV

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                                                      The 'not a racist', 'stable genius' imbecile in chief is sounding increasingly desperate




                                                      Turning millions into thousands

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                                                        Originally posted by Strewelpeter View Post
                                                        The 'not a racist', 'stable genius' imbecile in chief is sounding increasingly desperate
                                                        Obama sounded scared shitless today, though maybe he just feels uncomfortable in Florida.
                                                        Person...Woman...Man......Camera..TV

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                                                          Originally posted by Emmet View Post
                                                          WTF has happened to McWilliams? Spent too much time with MMTers or something?

                                                          Every time I hear him now he's extolling the virtues of just whacking huge debts on the state and pretending that they won't need to be paid, that the money is 'free'.
                                                          He's right though. We took the hit for xxx billion for the banks last time. 8/12 minute he does in this weeks pod https://podcasts.apple.com/ie/podcas...=1000496185552 is best logic I've encountered in this whole sideshow. The EU bond buying, lets take it and fuck the repercussions.

                                                          Worst case scenario, we end up with bacon and cabbage for a few year. After Goodman has been guillotined obv!

                                                          Emmet post opp to vent, nothing personal... AIB email I've just read about charging negative interest steamed;



                                                          Dear Nicholas,
                                                          We're writing to let you know about some changes we are making to our terms and conditions. You can see what changes we've made in the attached document.
                                                          For customers who are Microenterprises, we would like to draw your attention to the removal of the clause which excludes Microenterprises from the application of negative interest rates. These changes are due to the current extraordinary negative interest rate environment which we are continuing to insulate the vast majority of our customers against.
                                                          We must keep our interest rate policy under review and if a decision is taken in the future to apply negative interest that will affect you as a Microenterprise, then we will write to you in advance and let you know your options and what it means for you.
                                                          You can see what changes we've made to the terms and conditions for all the products listed in the attached document. We've included a table for each of our accounts that shows what the terms and conditions were and what they will change to.
                                                          We do appreciate your business but at the same time we understand that you may not want to accept these changes, you have the right to close your account free of charge by contacting your local AIB branch.
                                                          If we do not hear from you before 12 January 2021 we will take it to mean that you have accepted these changes.
                                                          If you're not sure you understand these changes or what they mean for you, you can contact us on 0818 300 092 from 9am - 5pm Monday to Friday except for bank holidays.
                                                          Thank you for banking with us.
                                                          Yours sincerely,
                                                          Helen Carbery

                                                          Comment


                                                            I got that letter as well for an account that is definitely not a microenterprise whatever the fuck a microenterprise is
                                                            Turning millions into thousands

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                                                              Carried it off fairly well tbf


                                                              Turning millions into thousands

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                                                                What sort of hour would one expect to go to bed next Tue night if one was sitting up eating popcorn?
                                                                I hold silver in tit for tat, and I love you for that

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                                                                  Related to Nicky's post. What are the best options in Ireland around banking at the moment?

                                                                  I have been using Revolut for a while, currently use this for all day-to-day transactions, and I have recently opened N26 as well. Of the Irish banks, KBC appear best from a current account perspective but my initial impressions on trying to open an account are extremely negative. Have literally zero patience for inept customer service.

                                                                  Is there any reason to keep my AIB and BOI accounts open or should I just close them? Appears to be zero value in keeping them.

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                                                                    Originally posted by Lazare View Post
                                                                    What sort of hour would one expect to go to bed next Tue night if one was sitting up eating popcorn?
                                                                    From the Irish Times, the timetable (irish time) of results being 'called' in the last election.
                                                                    Though obviously before a state is called there'll be returns from districts and lots of trends. And even the early states, whilst being locks, will give a useful percentage guide.
                                                                    Bed at 10pm, popcorn breakfast at 4.30AM might be best, but difficult to do.

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                                                                      Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

                                                                      well, your guy has made his mind up:

                                                                      Not to be pessimistic at all but having read both 538 and Wasserman this morning, a couple of things piqued my interest just a little

                                                                      Wasserman notes that polling in recent years have shown to undershoot Republicans in the Midwest while subsequently undershoot Democrats in the Southwest.

                                                                      The regional divergence was striking: In the Midwest and Great Lakes states, polls undershot Republicans' final margin in 28 of 33 cases, including by an average of 4.4 points in the "Trump triumph" of 2016 and 2.5 points in the "blue wave" of 2018.

                                                                      But in the Southwest, polls undershot Democrats' final margin in 17 of 19 cases, including by an average of 1.4 points in 2016 and 4.2 points in 2018.
                                                                      This leads me to what Silver noted in that if Biden loses Pennsylvania, the probability he wins the election reduces to 30%-obv undershooting works both way. Given Biden is polling approx 5 points better than Trump in Pennsylvania, it puts Biden's position within touching distance of the margin of error highlighted by Wasserman in Pennsylvania.

                                                                      Additionally in light of the ruling regarding naked ballots in Pennsylvania and Barrett likely to rule in favour of not extending the acceptance time of mailed votes in the state, I just thought his position felt a tad more precarious.

                                                                      Comment


                                                                        Originally posted by ArmaniJeans View Post

                                                                        From the Irish Times, the timetable (irish time) of results being 'called' in the last election.
                                                                        Though obviously before a state is called there'll be returns from districts and lots of trends. And even the early states, whilst being locks, will give a useful percentage guide.
                                                                        Bed at 10pm, popcorn breakfast at 4.30AM might be best, but difficult to do.
                                                                        Cheers AJ.
                                                                        Reading that I'm thinking more, bed at 8pm, up at 1am. Texas declared at 2.30. Can't miss that.
                                                                        I hold silver in tit for tat, and I love you for that

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                                                                          Originally posted by Lazare View Post
                                                                          Cheers AJ.
                                                                          Reading that I'm thinking more, bed at 8pm, up at 1am. Texas declared at 2.30. Can't miss that.
                                                                          It's just a bit sick that they have it on a Tuesday. Weekend would be awesome, even Thursday like the UK would be acceptable as a late night doesn't seem as bad when the week is nearly over anyway.
                                                                          Annoyed me so much thinking about it yesterday that I asked on boards/google why its a Tuesday in November.
                                                                          Very 19th century reasons to do with farming (for November) and religion (for Tuesday).

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                                                                            Selfish cunce not having it on a Friday
                                                                            I hold silver in tit for tat, and I love you for that

                                                                            Comment


                                                                              Originally posted by Murdrum View Post
                                                                              This leads me to what Silver noted in that if Biden loses Pennsylvania, the probability he wins the election reduces to 30%-obv undershooting works both way. Given Biden is polling approx 5 points better than Trump in Pennsylvania, it puts Biden's position within touching distance of the margin of error highlighted by Wasserman in Pennsylvania.

                                                                              Additionally in light of the ruling regarding naked ballots in Pennsylvania and Barrett likely to rule in favour of not extending the acceptance time of mailed votes in the state, I just thought his position felt a tad more precarious.
                                                                              So they only need to fix Pennsylvania and maybe Florida



                                                                              Turning millions into thousands

                                                                              Comment


                                                                                Originally posted by Murdrum View Post

                                                                                I feel it's the type of situation that people should not be speculating about on social media. It seems like a situation that calls for a little bit of tact.

                                                                                I briefly read some of the boards thread -which has asked for no speculation- where people place the "I'm not speculating" caveat even though they are clearly speculating.

                                                                                It's grim enough without people speculating about the circumstances.
                                                                                People definitely shouldn't be speculating. That that thread there was a lot of people posting vague suggestions of being local, personally knew - that could have just as easily been "I heard on Whatsapp".
                                                                                Wasn't trying to encourage speculation btw. Was more so slightly surprised by the level of detail the IT were printing. Very specific to be assuming, guessing a garda had a worth.

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                                                                                  I took the Weds off.
                                                                                  "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                    Originally posted by ArmaniJeans View Post

                                                                                    It's just a bit sick that they have it on a Tuesday. Weekend would be awesome, even Thursday like the UK would be acceptable as a late night doesn't seem as bad when the week is nearly over anyway.
                                                                                    Annoyed me so much thinking about it yesterday that I asked on boards/google why its a Tuesday in November.
                                                                                    Very 19th century reasons to do with farming (for November) and religion (for Tuesday).
                                                                                    I think the real question is 'what channel are you going to watch it on?'

                                                                                    I'm on Virgin and I get CNN and CNBC. So guess it's CNN, or BBC as my choices really (lol, RTE obvs).
                                                                                    Or I could just watch Fox online, I can see that definitely being best for dream-crushing purposes.
                                                                                    "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                      Was thinking of flicking between CNN and Fox. Don't fancy BBC, rather the insider perspective.

                                                                                      Just booked Wed off

                                                                                      I hold silver in tit for tat, and I love you for that

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                                                                                        I regularly stay up for basketball and could have this on in the background but NBA schedules changed due to Covid. Normally games would be on Nov 3rd.

                                                                                        Is it enough of an show during the broadcast to justify?

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                                                                                          I have already booked Weds off for the now cancelled golf . I shall uncork a bottle at 7am with some cheese and Trump toast . Then watch WW3 unravel on the telly box.

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                                                                                            Originally posted by Murdrum View Post
                                                                                            I regularly stay up for basketball and could have this on in the background but NBA schedules changed due to Covid. Normally games would be on Nov 3rd.

                                                                                            Is it enough of an show during the broadcast to justify?
                                                                                            Definitely. There are pockets of time where it's just repetitive analysis, but plenty of action.
                                                                                            I hold silver in tit for tat, and I love you for that

                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                              More grim news . Balinteer deaths

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                                                                                                Anyone sitting up watching election results on US TV when they could be in bed listening BBC radio needs their head examined.
                                                                                                Turning millions into thousands

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                                                                                                  Originally posted by Solksjaer! View Post
                                                                                                  More grim news . Balinteer deaths
                                                                                                  Ugh, no mention of which estate yet is there? NVM see it there.
                                                                                                  Last edited by Dice75; 28-10-20, 14:44.

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                                                                                                    The Economist now has Trump as a 3% chance to win, 538 are more generous and make him 11%.

                                                                                                    73 million Americans have already voted and we're heading for record turnout.

                                                                                                    Any interest in a prediction competition of some sort? I suggest everyone throws in whatever sum suits and person who gets closest to the EC result by state scoops.
                                                                                                    "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

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                                                                                                      Lidl finally cancelling some of the crazy aisle, due to covid restrictions

                                                                                                      Person...Woman...Man......Camera..TV

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                                                                                                        Got a little office setup in the house as I started a Photoshop course and I'm looking to get an external monitor for my Macbook Pro any recommendations on something that won't break the bank?
                                                                                                        "you raise, i kill you" El Tren :{)

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                                                                                                          Originally posted by Strewelpeter View Post
                                                                                                          Anyone sitting up watching election results on US TV when they could be in bed
                                                                                                          needs their head examined.
                                                                                                          .

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                                                                                                            Balsy move by the asti to throw in pay restoration with the rest of their strike demands

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                                                                                                              Originally posted by tylerdurden94 View Post
                                                                                                              Got a little office setup in the house as I started a Photoshop course and I'm looking to get an external monitor for my Macbook Pro any recommendations on something that won't break the bank?
                                                                                                              I got this one a few weeks ago and am very happy with it. Regardless of which one you choose I think it's worth looking at the 'used, amazon warehouse' offerings too, as it usually just means someone returned it without any usage. This was £98 four weeks go, though their prices fluctuate a lot. https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/...0?ie=UTF8&th=1 https://uk.camelcamelcamel.com/product/B01BCF06LE
                                                                                                              Person...Woman...Man......Camera..TV

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                                                                                                                So, if the expected happens and Trump loses next week does Biden take office straight away or is it January? If it's January is Trump still president till then? Is there scope for shenanigans of sorts if so? Or maybe he could just throw his toys out of the pram and quit?

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                                                                                                                  Originally posted by RichieM View Post
                                                                                                                  Balsy move by the asti to throw in pay restoration with the rest of their strike demands
                                                                                                                  I'm assuming they also got the 2% Brucie bonus raise of the civil servants this month too on top of their normal increment
                                                                                                                  ﴾͡๏̯͡๏﴿

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                                                                                                                    Originally posted by Degag View Post
                                                                                                                    So, if the expected happens and Trump loses next week does Biden take office straight away or is it January? If it's January is Trump still president till then? Is there scope for shenanigans of sorts if so? Or maybe he could just throw his toys out of the pram and quit?
                                                                                                                    Biden doesn't take office until mid-January, that is the same process as always for US presidential elections. I believe they have until mid-Dec to certify the result anyway and then the Biden transition team will be working to ensure a smooth handover process - he'll get all the NSA, CIA, covid briefings etc that Trump gets.

                                                                                                                    I read an interesting article that deals with your question today. Personally I think 'he'll pardon the fuck out of all his crooked buddies and family members' will be about it. Probably mostly play golf down in Florida while tens of thousands die from covid, why change a winning formula and now he doesn't even have to pretend to give a shit
                                                                                                                    "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                                      ...
                                                                                                                      "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

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                                                                                                                        As a rule I don't really bet anymore, but if I were to go in on the election what are the kinds of limit online bookies have if any? I suppose it's the biggest betting event ever so not like a novelty political bet with low limits.

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                                                                                                                          Originally posted by hotspur View Post
                                                                                                                          As a rule I don't really bet anymore, but if I were to go in on the election what are the kinds of limit online bookies have if any? I suppose it's the biggest betting event ever so not like a novelty political bet with low limits.
                                                                                                                          You can have 500k on Biden @ 1.51 on betfair if you like

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