Bad beat/Moaning/Venting thread - Mammy told me not to come.

[Keane]

Nuanced. Forget about USC in particular and just think of income tax as 'the % of my pay that gets taken away as PAYE + USC + PRSI'

So for Ireland in the year 2020, it looks like this:

If you're trying to convince me that everyone should pay tax on income I'm 100% on board with that. I have this (unresearched) notion that it has to be good for respect for public services and general social cohesion if we all contribute something however small.

[Raoul Duke III]

Now: compare to Germany (a country generally agreed to have its shit together)

[Raoul Duke III]

and....putting the two on top of each other

Look at the two extremes of the salary range:

[Raoul Duke III]

If you're trying to convince me that everyone should pay tax on income I'm 100% on board with that. I have this (unresearched) notion that it has to be good for respect for public services and general social cohesion if we all contribute something however small.

My point is that we have overly distorted the curve. This obsession with 'taking people out of the tax net' is actually dangerous.

[Raoul Duke III]

It’s much harder to avoid USC though, moving income tax down 1% wouldn’t be as bad as moving USC down 1%.

USC is a great tax for that very reason

[Keane]

My point is that we have overly distorted the curve. This obsession with 'taking people out of the tax net' is actually dangerous.

Yeah I'm comfortable with that position. Particularly the bit in bold. As an aside most evidence I see is that politicans are more obsessed with tax cuts at the low end than the population is.

Also with the point above that USC is the best tax we have.

[hotspur]

No bother imo. I can't see why a hotel in rural France would be able to get by on €15 an hour, but an Irish one is only viable at €10 an hour. We shouldn't compromise on paying people a decent living wage.

Social Democrat Gary Gannon got elected to the Dail for the first time. Here he is fighting in the council against selling off the Magdalene laundry site on Sean McDermott Street for a hotel:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NRY2pCiXWPU

[ionapaul]

You are right that FG shouldn't have included 'removing USC' as part of an earlier manifesto - firstly a stupid thing to do from a fiscal standpoint and secondly a monumentally stupid thing to fail to deliver on from a political standpoint.

For me, FG's main faults are when they succumb to populism, I don't think their core support thanks them for it and they don't win enough floating support to make the eventual consequences worthwhile. Leo saying that they were the party to represent those 'who get up early in the morning' and then immediately crumbling to the attacks of critics outraged by this apparent attack on 'the vunerable' just gave everyone a rod to beat FG with. Just stick with your principles FFS.

Seems the likelihood of a FF/FG and one other government is increasing. I'm not sure it will be much of a success if that's the case! I can't see how any government with FF as the biggest party will be a success.

[Raoul Duke III]

Just make USC 20% for everybody.

and get rid of all other forms of income tax and social charges

for anyone earning 35k+, it's a no-brainer

[Keane]

You are right that FG shouldn't have included 'removing USC' as part of an earlier manifesto - firstly a stupid thing to do from a fiscal standpoint and secondly a monumentally stupid thing to fail to deliver on from a political standpoint.

For me, FG's main faults are when they succumb to populism, I don't think their core support thanks them for it and they don't win enough floating support to make the eventual consequences worthwhile. Leo saying that they were the party to represent those 'who get up early in the morning' and then immediately crumbling to the attacks of critics outraged by this apparent attack on 'the vunerable' just gave everyone a rod to beat FG with. Just stick with your principles FFS.

Seems the likelihood of a FF/FG and one other government is increasing. I'm not sure it will be much of a success if that's the case! I can't see how any government with FF as the biggest party will be a success.

I kind of think having FG as a brake on the worst excesses of FF would be a decent outcome all things considered.

EDIT: Just to note that Leo spent the first debate with Micheal Martin promising to remove the USC once again this time around, whether or not it was slated in their manifesto to do it in full in the lifetime of this gov. It's not an old promise consigned to the dustbin of history.

[Denny Crane]

Social Democrat Gary Gannon got elected to the Dail for the first time. Here he is fighting in the council against selling off the Magdalene laundry site on Sean McDermott Street for a hotel:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NRY2pCiXWPU

Moore Street is a mess. It's a travesty that redevelopment of such a huge site in the centre of town has been held up over those buildings.

Maybe if we had higher local taxes, and gave councillors more power they'd be more amenable to supporting local development.

[ionapaul]

I think FG would be a better mudguard on both SF and FF than those two would be on each other (I think a FF/SF government will be dreadful!) but can't see them sticking with either arrangement for too long, would be politically too unpalatable I think.

I think enough people voted for 'change', whatever that means, that the focus should be giving SF a chance at their turn at the wheel, for good or ill. I think a FF/FG government will enrage a big % of the voters in this country and lead to further polarisation, I can't see it being worth it. I'd rather a failed FF/SF experiment (depending on how big a failure it is I suppose) than our political discourse sinking to the level of the US or the UK, we're already well on our way there!

[hotspur]

Are there figures around how much income tax comes in from these different income brackets?

[Raoul Duke III]

Are there figures around how much income tax comes in from these different income brackets?

before I supply them (), it would be interesting to see what you think they would be

[Raoul Duke III]

I think FG would be a better mudguard on both SF and FF than those two would be on each other (I think a FF/SF government will be dreadful!) but can't see them sticking with either arrangement for too long, would be politically too unpalatable I think.

I think enough people voted for 'change', whatever that means, that the focus should be giving SF a chance at their turn at the wheel, for good or ill. I think a FF/FG government will enrage a big % of the voters in this country and lead to further polarisation, I can't see it being worth it. I'd rather a failed FF/SF experiment (depending on how big a failure it is I suppose) than our political discourse sinking to the level of the US or the UK, we're already well on our way there!

I think, no matter what the composition of the next government is, that SF have to be a part of it.

• They need to be in government. In fairness, they seem very much to want this too.
• People need to see what they are like in government.

[Raoul Duke III]

Another thing to chew on as we debate the weighty issues of the day:

[Hectorjelly]

Debating is a pretty generous term.

[Dice75]

Always gonna happen, she did alright from the back page of the Sindo tbf...

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/courts/sean-dunne-threat-to-claw-back-millions-if-he-fails-to-block-ex-wifes-move-38952507.html

[hotspur]

before I supply them (), it would be interesting to see what you think they would be

That the lower earners contribute very little as there is very little to tax and the rates are low. I note that the table jumps from €20K-40K where a lot of people would be earning between that.

I'd guess that the % of revenue from <€20k is negligible, 1% maybe?

I also assume that the highest income bracket contributes between 25-33%.

So I'll guess...
20k 1%
40k 14%
60k 17%
80k 19%
100k 22%
150+K 27%

[Raoul Duke III]

Amazing how a man who is flat broke can issue all these expensive lawsuits....

[Raoul Duke III]

That the lower earners contribute very little as there is very little to tax and the rates are low. I note that the table jumps from €20K-40K where a lot of people would be earning between that.

I'd guess that the % of revenue from <€20k is negligible, 1% maybe?

I also assume that the highest income bracket contributes between 25-33%.

So I'll guess...
20k 1%
40k 14%
60k 17%
80k 19%
100k 22%
150+K 27%

You're probably close enough. The headline number from Revenue is that the top 5% of earners pay 55%+ of all income taxes.

[hotspur]

You're probably close enough. The headline number from Revenue is that the top 5% of earners pay 55%+ of all income taxes.

What percentage do you imagine the top 5% of earners would pay in a totally flat system?

[Strewelpeter]

Another thing to chew on as we debate the weighty issues of the day:

what is the rationale for that?

[Raoul Duke III]

what is the rationale for that?

Well, take an open economy where the tax base is heavily weighted towards Corporation Tax and Income Tax.

Apply one large economic shock.

Observe results.

Sound familiar?

[Raoul Duke III]

What percentage do you imagine the top 5% of earners would pay in a totally flat system?

Maybe 20-25%? Would need to see the distributions.

You can see from the German numbers i posted that you get more reward\less pain from the tax system there for being a high earner. Which is quite extraordinary really when you consider how we are constantly being told we are closer to Boston than Berlin...

[Goodluck2me]

Maybe 20-25%? Would need to see the distributions.

You can see from the German numbers i posted that you get more reward\less pain from the tax system there for being a high earner. Which is quite extraordinary really when you consider how we are constantly being told we are closer to Boston than Berlin...

Hitch posted the exact distribution a few pages back.

[Raoul Duke III]

Hitch posted the exact distribution a few pages back.

well, what's stopping you? Let's have it!

[ComradeCollie]

At least everything is going smoothly in London https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/13/w...s-johnson.html https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/n...ings-96bwkf962

[LuckyLloyd]

Another thing to chew on as we debate the weighty issues of the day:

Left wing parties here (including SF) being against property taxes will always be maddening to me. It’s such a bad look and completely indefensible and counter productive. Obviously it’s borne of our specific national psychosis with regards to property. But yes, increased property taxes, increased vacant site / land hoarding levies are urgently needed. It should also not be a flat fee, but graded and progressive based on size / time factors.

The issue with consumption tax is that it is squarely regressive. That’s where the debate starts I’d say, and it continues up the chain.

[Kayroo]

Left wing parties here (including SF) being against property taxes will always be maddening to me. It’s such a bad look and completely indefensible and counter productive. Obviously it’s borne of our specific national psychosis with regards to property. But yes, increased property taxes, increased vacant site / land hoarding levies are urgently needed. It should also not be a flat fee, but graded and progressive based on size / time factors.

The issue with consumption tax is that it is squarely regressive. That’s where the debate starts I’d say, and it continues up the chain.

I literally just wanted to quote this because I agree with you 100% and lately I know I've appeared to be somewhat combative with you Lloyd. I think it's good to remember that we have a lot more we agree on that not, and that ultimately our disagreements come from an earnest desire to see things done in the right way for the greatest benefit to all.

[Guest]

I couldn't agree more and as much as I might disagree with some LL politics as of late, he knows his bball better than 99% of fans which is the true test of a man.

Back to the politics though, I assume this FF announcement effectively means a 2nd GE given FG signaled an interest in taking up a role in opposition. FF minoirty with FG C& S either?

[Denny Crane]

Funny too considering that SF are courting the can't afford to buy vote.

[Guest]

Find basketball very hard to watch nowadays when they're hauling up 60 3-pointers a game.

[Guest]

Find basketball very hard to watch nowadays when they're hauling up 60 3-pointers a game.

I can understand that, the game has become so analytical that it's effectively a case that if you can shoot 40% from 3, you take the shot unless someone has a 2pt shot that is a 60%+ chance which people only shoot within 5 feet.

There are a few teams that play a little slower and their distribution isn't as polarised between dunks/lay-ups and 3pt shots.
Quin Snyder does a good job with the Utah Jazz for example and tbf the game slows down in the playoffs so you see a slightly older style.

The days of throwing it down low to bigger players is largely dead though, if you can't shoot from range, you'll have a much harder time plying your trade in today's game.

[Guest]

Imagine the pearl clutching orgy if this stuff happened in a GAA or soccer schools match.
The ex pupils going back year after year is just sad- fkn losers
‘Your father works for my father’: Schools rugby turning toxic in the stands
via The Irish Times

https://www.irishtimes.com/sport/rugby/your-father-works-for-my-father-schools-rugby-turning-toxic-in-the-stands-1.4172843

[Raoul Duke III]

Back to the politics though, I assume this FF announcement effectively means a 2nd GE given FG signaled an interest in taking up a role in opposition. FF minoirty with FG C& S either?

they still don't have the numbers?

37 FF, that's less than a quarter of 160. How do you cobble together C&S from there?

[Kayroo]

Imagine the pearl clutching orgy if this stuff happened in a GAA or soccer schools match.
The ex pupils going back year after year is just sad- fkn losers
‘Your father works for my father’: Schools rugby turning toxic in the stands
via The Irish Times
https://www.irishtimes.com/sport/rug...ands-1.4172843

The seriousness with which we treat the Leinster Senior Schools Cup is an absolute joke. The fact that its descending into loutish thuggery is at least being reflected in the same pages of the Irish Times where a tiny school sports competition is grossly over-represented.

[Guest]

they still don't have the numbers?

37 FF, that's less than a quarter of 160. How do you cobble together C&S from there?

I thought something around FF/Green with FG effectively doing C&S, obviously messy but I just can't see FG/FF being willing to officially go into government. I think if SF do it across multiple elections its inevitable but just not yet.

[Raoul Duke III]

Lloyd, thoughts on on our income tax system being too progressive?

[Raoul Duke III]

I thought something around FF/Green with FG effectively doing C&S, obviously messy but I just can't see FG/FF being willing to officially go into government. I think if SF do it across multiple elections its inevitable but just not yet.

That's 49 in
35 abstaining

Opposition is still 75!

[Wombatman]

In true old white man fashion, I have just finished a script that runs for me every Wednesday, Saturday and Sunday and books my tee times for me at my golf course as soon as the tee sheet opens.

Summer sorted.

You using something like Selenium?

[Guest]

That's 49 in
35 abstaining

Opposition is still 75!

Yeah didnt fully think through what a C&S actually means from a voting perspective.

I suspect we're going back then because I don't see a FF/FG coalition yet

[Solksjaer!]

McGregor takes the Luas red line I'd say.

https://www.facebook.com/276355499079976/posts/1707563522625826/

[Solksjaer!]

And of course Celtic

[eamonhonda]

And of course Celtic

One of the finest lines (and associated hand gesture) in internet video history

[Raoul Duke III]

Mehole closing the door pretty firmly on SF today.

FFFGGP or bust?

[Lao Lao]

Just the man I was hoping would respond. I guess I mean anyway possible become the de facto gateway to Europe for all trade or business. Even start with tourism. Ireland not being part of Schengen means Chinese tourists have an extra hurdle to jump to visit.

Is it the obvious geographic reasons why you know it’ll never happen from a physical goods perspective?

It's partly geographic but more economies of scale.

All container ships coming out of Asia will travel up through the Suez canal, across the Med, swing a right at Portugal and up into Northern Europe. The main north Europe base ports of call are Le Havre, Rotterdam, Antwerp, Hamburg, Bremerhaven, Felixstowe and Southampton.

When vessels get to the north west of France, there isn't a huge distance between Cork/Dublin and Rotterdam/Antwerp but Cork & Dublin are known as outports. The large ocean vessels (15,000 - 23,000 TEU size) don't call into outports as the volume coming off them at these places just doesn't warrant it (we also couldn't deal with the size of them, either on the draught or the length - Dublin would proably need to dredge about 5+ metres and add a minimum of 100m turning room. Ringaskiddy may be able to handle some of the non mega sized ones as their draft is deeper)

Instead, the containers bound for Ireland discharge at one of the above mentioned base ports and are then transferred onto much smaller vessels (1,000 - 2,000TEU vessel) for sending to places like Ireland, Scotland, the Baltics and the Scandi's.

Add in that Rotterdam/Antwerp/Hambug in particular all have excellent barge and rail networks to get containers cheaply all across Benelux, Germany, Poland, Austria, etc and we will never be a hub location

Air freight is simialr, in that the vast majority of freight travels on passenger planes. While we have some direct flights to/from China, the main EU hubs (London, Amster, Frankfurt, Paris) will have considerablly more capacity due to more people flying each way. A lot of Irish freight would come off the planes in one of these hubs and is then trucked into ireland.

Sorry, bit of a rushed answer but have to leg it.

[Strewelpeter]

Imagine the pearl clutching orgy if this stuff happened in a GAA or soccer schools match.
The ex pupils going back year after year is just sad- fkn losers
‘Your father works for my father’: Schools rugby turning toxic in the stands
via The Irish Times
https://www.irishtimes.com/sport/rug...ands-1.4172843

Clearly you have never been to any club GAA match.

[Guest]

I've a friend working in shipping in Shanghai the last 10 odd years. Sounds like there's a good chance you'd know him.

[Raoul Duke III]

Clearly you have never been to any club GAA match.

You're bringing back memories of my late father in law blithely giving the wide signal to a shot that sailed over the middle of the crossbar in the hotly contested Glenamaddy-Williamstown local derby. This nearly sparked off a riot, all of which he greatly enjoyed.

[Opr]

It's a completely moot question as he won't win the primary but yes, absolutely unelectable.

Opr

[Raoul Duke III]

Opr

Two states in my friend. NH is next door to Vermont.

[Opr]

Two states in my friend. NH is next door to Vermont.

Agreed but no longer a moot point.

Did you pick Germany as the trailblazing example because it most heavily supports your point of view or because they have 'their shit together'? Surely an average or comparing to a number of countries would have been better. FWIW, a recent study suggests the Irish tax system does most in Europe to reduce inequality which in my book seems a good thing.

Opr

[Raoul Duke III]

Agreed but no longer a moot point.

Did you pick Germany as the trailblazing example because it most heavily supports your point of view or because they have 'their shit together'? Surely an average or comparing to a number of countries would have been better. FWIW, a recent study suggests the Irish tax system does most in Europe to reduce inequality which in my book seems a good thing.

Opr

Feel free to produce some numbers yourself! Germany is generally reckoned to be prudently managed.

[Opr]

Feel free to produce some numbers yourself! Germany is generally reckoned to be prudently managed.

I don't think we have have been un-prudently(Don't know if I can do that) managed over the last government so I don't really want to go digging into numbers. They also generally underlie a whole host of other factors that aren't taken into consideration making the comparison not really worthwhile unless you are picking specific examples of numbers you like to make a point.

Opr

[Raoul Duke III]

I don't think we have have been un-prudently(Don't know if I can do that) managed over the last government so I don't really want to go digging into numbers. They also generally underlie a whole host of other factors that aren't taken into consideration making the comparison not really worthwhile unless you are picking specific examples of numbers you like to make a point.

Opr

So, let me get that straight.

I post numbers. Actual facts. You take issue with numbers.

Did you pick Germany as the trailblazing example because it most heavily supports your point of view or because they have 'their shit together'? Surely an average or comparing to a number of countries would have been better.

But, when asked to produce some numbers yourself:

I don't think we have have been un-prudently(Don't know if I can do that) managed over the last government so I don't really want to go digging into numbers.

Solid.

[Opr]

Actual Numbers = Facts. Mmmmm OK. You took a sample of one other country that is heavily weighted towards your point of view. Do you not see how that is troublesome? You think me also playing silly beggars and putting up silly numbers to support the counter side is, what? Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

Opr

[Raoul Duke III]

Actual Numbers = Facts. Mmmmm OK. You took a sample of one other country that is heavily weighted towards your point of view. Do you not see how that is troublesome? You think me also playing silly beggars and putting up silly numbers to support the counter side is, what? Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

Opr

Posting more data points adds to our store of knowledge. Knowledge leads to informed discussion.

All I see here is you nitpicking but refusing to make any actual contribution yourself. Find the numbers for Sweden, France, Netherlands, wherever. The fact that you dismiss such things as 'silly numbers' indicates an entrenched mindset. Persuade us. Enlighten us.

[dobby]

[Solksjaer!]

An old spitting image clip from 20 plus years ago. Whatever are they suggesting about Scofield.

https://youtu.be/P9zHqx-Hoz8