Bad beat/Moaning/Venting thread - Mammy told me not to come.

[dobby]

I'm disappointed with the draw there .

I'm not

[Raoul Duke III]

Still can't quite believe we're going to replace our ethnically-mixed, gay Taoiseach who has managed a booming economy, a decent Brexit deal and the two most socially progressive pieces of legislation in the history of the country with a conservative relic of a disastrous government.

The old adage of 'the people have spoken, the bastards' seems apt.

Exit poll at 10

[KevIRL]

A grim 24 hrs ahead I fear. Shinners going to get in the region of 38 seats. This vote left thing going on is going to mean they will transfer heavily to the PBPs of this world and carry some of them over the line.

Doom doom doom

[KevIRL]

Still can't quite believe we're going to replace our ethnically-mixed, gay Taoiseach who has managed a booming economy, a decent Brexit deal and the two most socially progressive pieces of legislation in the history of the country with a conservative relic of a disastrous government.

The old adage of 'the people have spoken, the bastards' seems apt.

Exit poll at 10

Could be worse, don't rule out a shinner led govt

[DeadParrot]

The fact Leo lasted less time than Cowen at the helm boggles the mind

[Raoul Duke III]

Could be worse, don't rule out a shinner led govt

They're only running 42 candidates Kev.

And, key point, they really, really don't want to be in government.

[ComradeCollie]

And, key point, they really, really don't want to be in government.

I sometimes wonder if any of you have ever been a member of a political party. Decisions can be reached democratically that nobody individually wants, but can be seen by a majority as the best compromise available at the time.

[Kayroo]

Respect for the couple of thousand Dublin fans on the Hill.
Utter insanity, but respect.
Dubs 7 points down, this year could be the end of the miracle run.

The three Kilmacud lads were shite in the first half but it was brutal out there. Found the warm embrace of the premium section tonight. Promised myself I’d never do the Hill on a night like that again after Derry a few years ago (yes, they were in Division 1 once).

Dublin’s grit is ridiculous. Deserved nothing from that game. Referee stole it from Monaghan when he pulled back that free near the end. The game winning goal was on. No idea why anyone could argue about the additional time, Monaghan were wasting time from the moment of the black card.

Anyway, Bugler looks class. Byrne is a really good player but needs to learn how to play in those conditions better. Felt so sorry for Paddy Andrews, looked like he pulled a calf.

[ComradeCollie]

Thinking of political parties. Just had a flashback to phoning Michael D on his home landline in Galway back in the 1980s. Different times.

[Raoul Duke III]

I sometimes wonder if any of you have ever been a member of a political party. Decisions can be reached democratically that nobody individually wants, but can be seen by a majority as the best compromise available at the time.

I'm basing my opinion on their track record, North and South.

Which party were you a member of?

[Strewelpeter]

A grim 24 hrs ahead I fear. Shinners going to get in the region of 38 seats. This vote left thing going on is going to mean they will transfer heavily to the PBPs of this world and carry some of them over the line.

Doom doom doom

I'm going to hold on to some hope yet on the basis of Twitter is not any real reflection of the electorate.
But the LGBT activists using the referenda as a stick to beat FG can just fuck off

[ComradeCollie]

I'm basing my opinion on their track record, North and South.

Which party were you a member of?

Labour.

[Lazare]

I'm going to hold on to some hope yet on the basis of Twitter is not any real reflection of the electorate.
But the LGBT activists using the referenda as a stick to beat FG can just fuck off

Twitter had Boris toasted.

There's hope.

[Lazare]

Exit poll in 1 min

[Strewelpeter]

Hmmmm
!

[Guest]

Omg

[ArmaniJeans]

Wow.
Dead heat stuff.

[Lazare]

Wow. Fuck yeah.

[Raoul Duke III]

Bejaykers.

[Raoul Duke III]

Labour.

I'm slightly disappointed in you. Would have thought some obscure Maoist offshoot of an obscure Communist offshoot.

[Guest]

FF/FG coalition not even a majority, that's incredible.

[ArmaniJeans]

[eamonhonda]

Where? What?

[Guest]

SF only running 42 candidates looks like an awful decision now

[Raoul Duke III]

Where? What?

FG, SF, FF all on 22% of first preferences.

[Kayroo]

That’s the maddest exit poll I’ve ever seen. SF with a HUGE tactical error in under-nominating.

How this plays out in seats is anyone’s guess.

[Raoul Duke III]

FF seem to have underperformed.

If you have a lot of SF candidates getting in near the first count, where their transfers go could be key.

[Strewelpeter]

The more Shinners get elected the less their votes transfer, it will be only the places where they have fckd up by wasting a spare quota where they will be transferring back to the indo / nutjob left vote they have moved from anyway.

[Guest]

Looking at the distribution by age, I think the Greens could go well on transfers.

I think they'll do better than 1st preference indicate, overestimating PBP

[Strewelpeter]

How this plays out in seats is anyone’s guess.

Other than FG FF its hard to see how a government gets formed.
the 6/1 is looking value now.

[Lazare]

SF's surge aside, that poll looks good for FG, yes?

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[Strewelpeter]

FF/FG coalition not even a majority, that's incredible.

They will have mid 90's between them Shinners will have late 20's early 30's

[KevIRL]

Another general election in 2020 is 9/1 on PP. That's a bet imo

2/1 now....

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[Lazare]

Yeah I think a load of SF votes could go to Greens based on age profile.

Shocking from FF.

I mean it's really bad from FG, but the shocking bit is that FF were absolutely rejected as the alternative.

FG the strongest. Albeit slightly, but from reading twitter I had them annihilated.

[Raoul Duke III]

They will have mid 90's between them Shinners will have late 20's early 30's

Mid 90s? No chance.

I can't see any putative government emerging here. The electorate have spoken and delivered a clear message of 'eh, no idea'.

[Wombatman]

FF SF more likely to happen than FF FG.

[Kayroo]

FG the strongest. Albeit slightly, but from reading twitter I had them annihilated.

If only twitter voted we would be living in the People’s Socialist Republic of Ireland and have reinstated the Comintern.

[Lazare]

Guess it depends on how many seats they get. But they would have an obvious legitimacy to form the next gov, the same as FF.

They don't really have many natural partners though as they just can't do a deal with SF. Whereas FF can.

FG/FF seems a chance. Not sure it would be great though as would have Martin as a leader. Nothing particularly wrong with him, but wow is he unconvincing about anything. Suppose he's going to be the leader in any case. Which is mad given the disaster he has presided over.

Why do you have MM leading based on the exit poll when it has FG marginally the larger party?

I'm starting to believe in a Leo Taoiseach.

[Kayroo]

Mid 90s? No chance.

I can't see any putative government emerging here. The electorate have spoken and delivered a clear message of 'eh, no idea'.

Idea for a drinking game:

For every mention over the next week or so of the quote “The people have spoken and now we just have to figure out what they have said” - drink.

You’ll be dead of alcohol poisoning in about 4 hours.

[Raoul Duke III]

Idea for a drinking game:

For every mention over the next week or so of the quote “The people have spoken and now we just have to figure out what they have said” - drink.

You’ll be dead of alcohol poisoning in about 4 hours.

D'Hondt de Bollix

[Lazare]

If only twitter voted we would be living in the People’s Socialist Republic of Ireland and have reinstated the Comintern.

True.

Boris was toast according to twitter.

[Raoul Duke III]

Mehole was 1/20 to be next Taoiseach yesterday.

Now he still might be but that's a serious beat-down. Might actually lose seats on 2016.

[KevIRL]

SF lead the age breakdown in the exit poll in the first four age groups 18-24 and 24-34 (both significantly), 35-49 and 59-64 (narrowly). Something not adding up unless the strewel cohort have saved us.....

[Strewelpeter]

Mid 90s? No chance.

I can't see any putative government emerging here. The electorate have spoken and delivered a clear message of 'eh, no idea'.

There are going to be a lot of last seat battles but they will certainly have a working majority between them.

FF SF will need at least Greens and and a few Healy Rae types to make a majority.

FF and FG will have to choose between a quick return to the electorate where the shinners might get >40 seats without increasing their vote or biting the bullet and creating a government together.

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[LuckyLloyd]

SF only running 42 candidates looks like an awful decision now

Just as FF running 84 looks wrong? Can't be results based analysing those decisions imo. SF got 10% in the locals, I wondered if 42 was too many tbh.

[LuckyLloyd]

Anyway, the FFG government will be robust and stable. Enough of a majority to get legislation through, only two cooks and obviously aligned on policy. So a good outcome for everyone concerned.

[Strewelpeter]

Could see Leo stepping down as presumably he wouldn't want to be underdog to Martin as he seems like a born leader (imo and clearly not the view of the wider electorate!) and stepping into a nothing-Tanaiste role would be too much of a step back.

He would be capable of standing back without standing down probably taking a lead on Brexit as long as Pascal stays in finance.

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[Lazare]

lol

[Guest]

Suggestion seems to be that based upon what happened with Labour in 92 and assuming relative consistency across constituencies SF will end up with 32 seats.

PBP and SD suggested as most likely benefactors of surplus, most importantly of all, I'm pretty happy with my position in the Political Ascendancy comp

[Solksjaer!]

[Lazare]

Is it possible to rock up to a count centre?

[KevIRL]

Suggestion seems to be that based upon what happened with Labour in 92 and assuming relative consistency across constituencies SF will end up with 32 seats.

PBP and SD suggested as most likely benefactors of surplus, most importantly of all, I'm pretty happy with my position in the Political Ascendancy comp

Solidarity/PBP with 31% of SF transfers according to exit poll

[balfejohn]

Is it possible to rock up to a count centre?

Yes

Don’t wear a balaclava or they might ask a few questions

[BennyHiFi]

Lol Eilis O'Hanlon. As out of touch (and bitter) as it's possible to be.

https://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/so-why-didnt-younger-voters-care-about-sinn-fein-crimes-38937972.html