Bad beat/Moaning/Venting thread - Mammy told me not to come.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

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[Goodluck2me]

Cliff Taylor says in his IT article today there only around 100,000 individuals or jointly assessed couples earning over 100k pa - what proportion of the workforce would that be?

I would have been off by several multiples if I had to guess how many there would be on that kind of money.

People >€100k make up 7.4% of the income tax payers, and generate 28% of the wages earned, but pay 53% of the overall tax. Shows the social transfers already in place in Ireland.

A bit like if I was having a discussion about the banking crisis and someone uttered the phrase "fat cats", i'd probably puck them in the face and walk away for insulting my intelligence.

I’d add vulture funds to that too!

In light of the spending required in health , childcare and housing. Where will that money magically appear from. Whilst on the subject where did the promissory notes money magically from ?

The promissory notes weren’t money, they were IOUs.

I work with some a lot of bat shit crazy people but two of the best lines I've heard in the last few days are


'I'm cold, don't know why, it's like 12 degrees outside and the Air Con is set to 22 degrees in the office, don't know how I can be cold at almost 35 degrees!'

AND


'When I eat out, I always pick something I couldn't cook at home myself, like steak'

Remove that last comma and it makes sense.

Yes, me too.

But it’s not so good for general elections, certainly not when combined with Harris, Coveney and Leo. With the benefit of hindsight it seems obvious now that such a lineup would really struggle to resonate with the Plain People of Ireland.

Yeah it’s a shame, lots of things that resonate with the plain people of Ireland are quite bad for them, they just don’t know it yet.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

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[Goodluck2me]

I know we see a lot of “The top 10% in Ireland make 10x more than than bottom 10%”, but I thought it was interested to note in the context of SF’s proposed 5% levy on incomes over €140k to run some numbers.

Those making €150k+ in that chart, make up 2.9% of the people, and pay the same amount of tax as the bottom 88% of people!

By comparison.Those 2.9% of people generate 18.3% of the income, the same as the bottom 52% of people.

[Raoul Duke III]

I know we see a lot of “The top 10% in Ireland make 10x more than than bottom 10%”, but I thought it was interested to note in the context of SF’s proposed 5% levy on incomes over €140k to run some numbers.

Those making €150k+ in that chart, make up 2.9% of the people, and pay the same amount of tax as the bottom 88% of people!

By comparison.Those 2.9% of people generate 18.3% of the income, the same as the bottom 52% of people.

Most progressive income tax system in the OECD.

Another thing you don't hear very often: "Irish people on low incomes get an amazing deal on tax".

[Raoul Duke III]

52% of every extra € you make over ~75k goes to the Revenue.

That seems immoral.

[Guest]

I know we see a lot of “The top 10% in Ireland make 10x more than than bottom 10%”, but I thought it was interested to note in the context of SF’s proposed 5% levy on incomes over €140k to run some numbers.

Those making €150k+ in that chart, make up 2.9% of the people, and pay the same amount of tax as the bottom 88% of people!

By comparison.Those 2.9% of people generate 18.3% of the income, the same as the bottom 52% of people.

Ireland does very well when compared to the rest of the EU on social transfer. The EU median of reducing those at risk of poverty as a result of social transfer is approx 32%.

Finland do the best at almost 54%. Norway & Ireland pretty much joint 2nd at just shy of 52%.

As much as people like to sell FF/FG policies as right of center, they are quite good in this regard.

[balfejohn]

Yeah, they moved the borders and shifted constituencies so have gone from historically strong (like 'em or not) TD's like Brennan, Kitt, Shatter, Liz O'Donnell, Olivia Mitchell, Ryan & Ross to Sean Crowe & Paul Murphy.

U would be a Paul Murphy fan I would say

[balfejohn]

Think an FG-Green-Lab coalition would be class tbh. The modernising politics perspective of FG, great new ideas for how to live in society from greens, and labs old-school practical leftist credentials to even out the madder elements of FG.

U might need 20 seats from your kitchen to get to 80

[Goodluck2me]

52% of every extra € you make over ~75k goes to the Revenue.

That seems immoral.

I think anything over half is harsh.

[DeadParrot]

Is this intended as a prime exhibit of #chartcrime ? I really hope it is.

Its completely incomprehensible.

Starts with "What political parties have to say about:"

And to take an example of the first column for NAPAR (wtf is NAPAR?), it gives a tick or an x.

But how can the answer to "What political parties have to say about:" be a tick or an x? I guess this means yes or no, but what does that mean in the context of the opener?

A chart is meant to be readable by itself.

I also highly doubt many of the categorisations as they seem quite subjective.

I thought you might get a kick out of it

[DeadParrot]

Think an FG-Green-Lab coalition would be class tbh. The modernising politics perspective of FG, great new ideas for how to live in society from greens, and labs old-school practical leftist credentials to even out the madder elements of FG.

no way those numbers work unfortunately

[gorrrr72]

Not sure whether to complimented or disturbed that one of your choices is my Ma

My Granny worked there around that time, I'll check with my family to see if she's in the pic.

[Silver-Tiger]

Dublin SW - bit of a pain since they moved around the constituencies

Also here.

Sean Crowe 1/40. The Shinners certainly would have gotten 2 over the line in my opinion. Mental they are only running one horse.

Where Crowe's 2/3/4/5 go will be interesting. 3 FF and 2 FG won't be getting them. Murphy might need them to get over the line. He's stock is low and now odds against.

Carly Bailey of Social Democrats is interesting. If people didn't fancy going as far left as Murphy. She could gobble up quite a few.
She got in the last local elections and has been canvassing forever.
Gone from 20s to 8s so value probably gone but should be interesting to watch.

Think Zappone is gone.

It's been a Labour Stronghold in the past with Rabbitte and Kearns. The new Labour kid is 15/8. His stock is high and could get in.

[Dice75]

Also here.

Sean Crowe 1/40. The Shinners certainly would have gotten 2 over the line in my opinion. Mental they are only running one horse.

Where Crowe's 2/3/4/5 go will be interesting. 3 FF and 2 FG won't be getting them. Murphy might need them to get over the line. He's stock is low and now odds against.

Carly Bailey of Social Democrats is interesting. If people didn't fancy going as far left as Murphy. She could gobble up quite a few.
She got in the last local elections and has been canvassing forever.
Gone from 20s to 8s so value probably gone but should be interesting to watch.

Think Zappone is gone.

It's been a Labour Stronghold in the past with Rabbitte and Kearns. The new Labour kid is 15/8. His stock is high and could get in.

Not sure i'd like to be putting the farm on the Green lad to get in @ 1/3. Labour lad might be from the wrong end of the constituency to get the max votes he needs too.

[ComradeCollie]

But yeah I'd imagine Dice has a poster up in the garage of Posh-boy Murphy.

His rhyming of Paul with Dáil grinds my gears more than I'd expect.

[Lazare]

Question for SP and Raoul, and anyone else.

Similar to those 'what do you admire most about your opponent' type questions.

Assume SF lead a left coalition and their people are lined up for top portfolios.

Who would you grudgingly prefer in which brief?

O'Broin in housing?

Pearse Doherty in finance?

Dessie Ellis in justice?

[Lazare]

Paging Lloyd, would like to read a glimpse into his current thinking.

[Strewelpeter]

Question for SP and Raoul, and anyone else.

Similar to those 'what do you admire most about your opponent' type questions.

Assume SF lead a left coalition and their people are lined up for top portfolios.

Who would you grudgingly prefer in which brief?

O'Broin in housing?

Pearse ?

Dessie Ellis in justice?

O'Broin in housing will do more short and medium term harm than the others. His housing policies are childish fantasies that they will not be able to renege on. They will reverse much of what is happening now and we will end up building far less houses. But it won't matter because with Doherty in finance FDI will dry up and most of the existing ones will be winding down so the housing crisis will be solved by mass emigration.

The idea of Ellis getting a job isn't even funny

[Raoul Duke III]

Question for SP and Raoul, and anyone else.

Similar to those 'what do you admire most about your opponent' type questions.

Assume SF lead a left coalition and their people are lined up for top portfolios.

Who would you grudgingly prefer in which brief?

O'Broin in housing?

Pearse Doherty in finance?

Dessie Ellis in justice?

Dessie Ellis has probably personally killed more people than the entire Irish army so clearly a shoe-in for defence.

Mary Loo is a shining example to the nation for keeping herself in tip-top shape so Health obviously.

And seeing as Gerry Adams has three gaffs, he's clearly well equipped to tackle Housing.

Then pull any of them that's never had a real job and give them Social Affairs.

And Conor Murphy for Communications.

[Lazare]

Seriously tho

[balfejohn]

Dessie Ellis has probably personally killed more people than the entire Irish army so clearly a shoe-in for defence.

Mary Loo is a shining example to the nation for keeping herself in tip-top shape so Health obviously.

And seeing as Gerry Adams has three gaffs, he's clearly well equipped to tackle Housing.

Then pull any of them that's never had a real job and give them Social Affairs.

And Conor Murphy for Communications.

Question for SP and Raoul, and anyone else.

Similar to those 'what do you admire most about your opponent' type questions.

Assume SF lead a left coalition and their people are lined up for top portfolios.

Who would you grudgingly prefer in which brief?

O'Broin in housing?

Pearse Doherty in finance?

Dessie Ellis in justice?

Doherty would be a frugal finance man

Dessie would have to be foreign secretary and overseeing brexit (if he’s let into any country)

Louise o Reilly might be one for housing

[Strewelpeter]

Coppinger like a rabbit in the headlights having to answer questions for the first time since her leaving cert.
She can't even make up shit
We'll privatise the entire building industry except for builders

[Guest]

They're all hopeless imo.

[Silver-Tiger]

They're all hopeless imo.

Thought Shorthall looked good in that company. Was useless against the A players though.

[Raoul Duke III]

Seriously tho

Ask stupid questions, get stupid answers.

Had my first election bet. Lisa Chambers for Tanaiste @10s.

[ArmaniJeans]

One for the political ner aficionados. No googling or wiki-ing.

Last time we simultaneously had the evil triumvirate of a Republican President, Tory PM and FF Taoiseach?

[Raoul Duke III]

One for the political ner aficionados. No googling or wiki-ing.

Last time we simultaneously had the evil triumvirate of a Republican President, Tory PM and FF Taoiseach?

Ohhhhh, that's a good 'un.

Not Trump.
Not W.

Bush Senior\Thatcher\Charles J Haughey

Edit: probably Major instead of Maggie

[nicnicnic]

Also here.

Sean Crowe 1/40. The Shinners certainly would have gotten 2 over the line in my opinion. Mental they are only running one horse.

Exact same for Waterford. 1/33 Cullinane. Halligans first preference vote up for grabs and John Herne a popular city based councillor would have taken a chunk of them.

Cullinane was getting in on first count whether they ran one or two.

Some move on Pearse Doherty in the "Most 1st preference votes in the country" market on PP over the last week. Was around the 5/1 mark for weeks, with Healy-Rae 1/3, out to 7/4 now.

[ArmaniJeans]

Ohhhhh, that's a good 'un.

Not Trump.
Not W.

Bush Senior\Thatcher\Charles J Haughey

Edit: probably Major instead of Maggie

SPOILER

Pretty good.
From what I can see Albert Reynolds sneaked it after Haughey for a few months in 1992. John Major and Bush Snr are correct. Bush left in Jan 93 and it hasn't happened since.
Obviously I wiki-ed it before asking.
UK
USA
Ireland

[balfejohn]

Ask stupid questions, get stupid answers.

Had my first election bet. Lisa Chambers for Tanaiste @10s.

Looks a decent bet alrite

[Guest]

Exact same for Waterford. 1/33 Cullinane. Halligans first preference vote up for grabs and John Herne a popular city based councillor would have taken a chunk of them.

Cullinane was getting in on first count whether they ran one or two.

Some move on Pearse Doherty in the "Most 1st preference votes in the country" market on PP over the last week. Was around the 5/1 mark for weeks, with Healy-Rae 1/3, out to 7/4 now.

Thoughts on Waterford Nic? Cullinane, Butler, Cummins and between Marc o Cathasaigh and Pratt for the last?

[KevIRL]

Geoghean more likely than Cummins.

Mary Butler is a horrible wretched yoke. She gets the FF rural vote but hopefully her idiocy in having Brendan Kenneally (former TD and cousin of peadophile bill Kenneally) canvas for her comes back to bite her. The Bill Kenneally scandal was a big one down here and the victims who have come out are well supported. In her canvassing the cousin of Kenneally went to one of their houses and it's all over social media last night and today. Could change things up down here

[Guest]

Geoghean more likely than Cummins.

Mary Butler is a horrible wretched yoke. She gets the FF rural vote but hopefully her idiocy in having Brendan Kenneally (former TD and cousin of peadophile bill Kenneally) canvas for her comes back to bite her. The Bill Kenneally scandal was a big one down here and the victims who have come out are well supported. In her canvassing the cousin of Kenneally went to one of their houses and it's all over social media last night and today. Could change things up down here

Is Cummins not No1 though? Perhaps it won't matter but I thought they were pushing him as No1 and Geoghean as No2.

Similarly Butler No1 and Mulligan as No2

[Raoul Duke III]

Do they still have that stupid moratorium yoke where the media are forced to pretend there isn't an election tomorrow?

[Kayroo]

Ask stupid questions, get stupid answers.

Had my first election bet. Lisa Chambers for Tanaiste @10s.

There's pretty much zero chance of that happening.

[Raoul Duke III]

There's pretty much zero chance of that happening.

Minority government is the only scenario and if it was good enough for FG with mid 50s seats...

[ComradeCollie]

Do they still have that stupid moratorium yoke where the media are forced to pretend there isn't an election tomorrow?

Yup https://www.bai.ie/en/broadcasting-a...on-coverage-2/

[DeadParrot]

Oof.... Full blooded thread that

[Dice75]

Do they still have that stupid moratorium yoke where the media are forced to pretend there isn't an election tomorrow?

Doesn't affect print media who today reckon the main Election issue is that Gerry Adams now should apologise

[Raoul Duke III]

Doesn't affect print media who today reckon the main Election issue is that Gerry Adams now should apologise

That would take a week if the bould Gerry had to publicly atone for every murder he ordered

[Dice75]

That would take a week if the bould Gerry had to publicly atone for every murder he ordered

He was never a member of the IRA

[Raoul Duke III]

He was never a member of the IRA

and I have never gambled or drank alcohol in my life

(actually rather amusingly, that just reminded me of my father who grew up in a small rural town where his mother was quite a puritan Christian of the old school. Despite being fully acquainted with the delights of punting, drinking and smoking he successfully managed to keep this concealed from my granny until she died when he was well into middle age himself. Or, equally likely, she tactically decided to ignore this in her ongoing game of 'none of my children ever smoked or drank' oneupmanship with her like-minded buddies.
Still don't think any of the family dared to enter a pub in that town until after she passed on)

[Raoul Duke III]

Not a bet available with PP but does anyone fancy offering odds on 'no Green candidate to be elected outside of Dublin'?

[ComradeCollie]

Still don't think any of the family dared to enter a pub in that town until after she passed on)

I thought your ancestors were from Terenure

[Raoul Duke III]

I thought your ancestors were from Terenure

on the maternal side

[Strewelpeter]

and I have never gambled or drank alcohol in my life

(actually rather amusingly, that just reminded me of my father who grew up in a small rural town where his mother was quite a puritan Christian of the old school. Despite being fully acquainted with the delights of punting, drinking and smoking he successfully managed to keep this concealed from my granny until she died when he was well into middle age himself. Or, equally likely, she tactically decided to ignore this in her ongoing game of 'none of my children ever smoked or drank' oneupmanship with her like-minded buddies.
Still don't think any of the family dared to enter a pub in that town until after she passed on)

The level of stubborn denial I saw my Father achieve a few weeks ago after my Nephew had called into him with his boyfriend and was telling him that they are getting married was something to behold. Top class performance.

[Strewelpeter]

Not a bet available with PP but does anyone fancy offering odds on 'no Green candidate to be elected outside of Dublin'?

Whats your bid?

[Raoul Duke III]

Whats your bid?

I want to back it, sorry if not clear.

PP have a 5/4 shot in Wickla
5/4 in Waaaaherford
Evs in Louth
2/1 in Limerick City
Evs in your own place
5/6 Galway West
9/4 Cork SC
7/4 Carlow

[Raoul Duke III]

The level of stubborn denial I saw my Father achieve a few weeks ago after my Nephew had called into him with his boyfriend and was telling him that they are getting married was something to behold. Top class performance.

'Confirmed bachelor' was always the codeword in our family.

[Strewelpeter]

I want to back it, sorry if not clear.

PP have a 5/4 shot in Wickla
5/4 in Waaaaherford
Evs in Louth
2/1 in Limerick City
Evs in your own place
5/6 Galway West
9/4 Cork SC
7/4 Carlow

So what price would you back it at?

Unfortunately I'm in KE South rather than north which is a more interesting constituency.

I like to try make my vote work to block SF/FF as much as possible, usually that means giving a 1 to Labour, Greens or some nutjob but if the polls are to believed its possible that the FG lad, party chairman Martin Headon who is a decent national level performer might need all the No1's he can get.

[Raoul Duke III]

So what price would you back it at?.

you would want double figures anyway

[DeadParrot]

Phillip Schofield just came out on air.

https://news.sky.com/story/phillip-schofield-comes-out-as-gay-11928156

Didn't know he had wife and kids
I kinda already thought he was out?

[Strewelpeter]

you would want double figures anyway

LOL
You say that as if it was an accum of the candidates and there was no contingency

Its c. 5/2 IMO

[DeadParrot]

you would want double figures anyway

surely they'd price it for you if you degen called?

[Raoul Duke III]

LOL
You say that as if it was an accum of the candidates and there was no contingency

Its c. 5/2 IMO

couldn't be a backer at that price

What about 'Number of Green candidates to get elected in Dublin'?

[ComradeCollie]

'Confirmed bachelor' was always the codeword in our family.

Marriage equality has ruined that lovely phrase though.

[Strewelpeter]

couldn't be a backer at that price

What about 'Number of Green candidates to get elected in Dublin'?

Too complicated but I'd imagine it should look something like this

<8 35%
8 30%
9 30 %
>9 5%

[Solksjaer!]

Marriage equality has ruined that lovely phrase though.

Philip Scofield on the market .

[pokerhand]

Even where people confess you can’t be certain they did it. If you have 100 eye witnesses and CCTV footage, you can’t be certain the person didn’t commit the crime under duress, or by reason of automatism or mental issues or 100 other reasons. You might be absolutely certain of the action but not the motivation and if you can’t prove both, you can’t be certain of the crime as we require both a guilty act AND a guilty mind for almost any crime for which capital punishment could conceivably be used.

We cannot ever be 100% sure. In the absence of that, how can we ever risk being wrong?

Hi kayroo, was reading about the Jonty Bravery case on BBC and that made me think of this arguement. There can be situations you can be 100% sure? I laude the the sentiment but there can be situations where we can be 100% sure, think Hitler, ted Bundy, Andrei Chikatilo, Jeffrey Dahmer, etc...