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    Originally posted by TheJiggaman View Post
    I actually don’t know where to start with the above comment.

    xG isn’t expected to win you games. The most important reasoning for xG is for analysts of teams to review the chances of A) their own players and B) for scouting purposes.

    xG is completely based on shot location, so it isn’t the be all and end all, but there’s always very interesting things come from it. (xS is derived from this too - xy of the shot and goalkeeper location at time of shot)

    Can actually go into proper detail into it when I’m back from hols and have access to my laptop to screenshot stuff from work if people were interested.
    There was a small piece in this years RI Christmas Lectures where they had one of Liverpool's 'team of mathematicians' who demonstrated how they use the model. It was brief and high level overview but it was fascinating to see the level of detail they are getting and how they can use it.

    I guess that models like this are particularly effective in soccer because it is such a simple game. Over a large enough sample you simply end up with a number showing you how effective each player is.
    Turning millions into thousands

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      Originally posted by Strewelpeter View Post
      There was a small piece in this years RI Christmas Lectures where they had one of Liverpool's 'team of mathematicians' who demonstrated how they use the model. It was brief and high level overview but it was fascinating to see the level of detail they are getting and how they can use it.

      I guess that models like this are particularly effective in soccer because it is such a simple game. Over a large enough sample you simply end up with a number showing you how effective each player is.
      It's simple to a degree but it's still much more difficult than something like basketball or baseball. Both sports contained quite a lot of closed skills which are very directly involved in the outcome.
      For example baseball pricing is very much driven by the first pitcher. Their ability is somewhat easy to quantify, speed and direction of the pitch along with distance to the batsman.
      Conditions are relatively consistent too, perfect example is you often see Chicago Cubs games are last to be priced up because it has the most unpredictable weather. Similarly basketball has free throws, distance, conditions, ball, court always the same.

      Soccer on the other hand is not quite as easy outside of perhaps penalty kicks, goal kicks and free kicks. When you view it like this, you wonder how it took teams so long to realise the value of goal kicks which are often now targeted at retaining the ball over progressing the ball forward.

      As you say it is relatively simple and it's major advantage is liquidity from a gambling perspective to drive predictions overall.
      I thought about xG last night and if proximity and angle are the primary drivers, does Liverpool's faster counterattacking style allow them to get into positions whereby they have easier opportunities from those zones than most because they tend to be faced with less set opposition once they get there.
      Like Situation said, the models are more complex than simply proximity and angle but just a thought on why they're beating the easily obtained xG models.

      Comment


        What's simple about Soccer?

        Comment


          Originally posted by Hectorjelly View Post
          What's simple about Soccer?
          the players

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            More date reviews and aul fella opinions on what is fashionable please!

            My last first date I asked her what drink she would like and she asked for a whiskey, straight. I asked after any in particular, "no, whiskey is like water to me". <3

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              Jesse Lindgard broke my maths teachers heart.

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                Originally posted by shrapnel View Post
                the players
                the fans
                "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

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                  Originally posted by Tar.Aldarion View Post
                  More date reviews and aul fella opinions on what is fashionable please!

                  My last first date I asked her what drink she would like and she asked for a whiskey, straight. I asked after any in particular, "no, whiskey is like water to me". <3
                  Promising start from one perspective but almost certainly not a keeper
                  "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                  Comment



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                      Originally posted by Denny Crane View Post

                      She's no Kimberly Wilkins - Needs some music and a good remix

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                        Speaking of quantifying sport, Coco Gauff is unbelievable, not to mention she's only 15

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                          Yeah well, I'd like to see how your hair would fare in a blizzard!

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                            There may have been a bit of a snafu on the site here with the domain which expired today, even though it was set to auto renew. It seems to work from some devices, and not others, so as things stand, presumably due to different DNS propogation rates, it might disappear entirely soon! Hopefully not though and I am working on it.

                            Stupid internet.

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                              I'm in Saigon for a month. Anyone got any cultural recommendations?

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                                Domain should be sorted in the next day or so (it already has been, but takes time to fully propogate) and everything back to normal. For those still able to get here, traffic might be a bit lower for a day or so though.

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                                  Originally posted by 6starpool View Post
                                  Domain should be sorted in the next day or so (it already has been, but takes time to fully propogate) and everything back to normal. For those still able to get here, traffic might be a bit lower for a day or so though.
                                  I can access it via the Tapatalk app on the phone but can't get onto it from the laptop in work.

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                                    At least it put an end to people trying to make soccer interesting to people who have no interest in it. Next week maybe Zuutroy can try to make watering the garden exciting by giving us a refersher course in fluid dynamics.
                                    Gone full 'Glinner' since June 2022.

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                                      Me(standing) playing outside the BOI on College Green in 1985 (maybe '86)

                                      Gone full 'Glinner' since June 2022.

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                                        I'd like to see how your hair would fare in a blizzard!

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                                          Da at work in the 50s



                                          Dead brother Tom in (to my eye at least) a remarkably unchanged place in the 70s



                                          I'd like to see that hair in a blizzard.
                                          Gone full 'Glinner' since June 2022.

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                                            IPB nostalgia

                                            Gone full 'Glinner' since June 2022.

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                                              Nobody else has uploaded an HD version of this scene, so here it is. Because we really needed it.


                                              Tom Green is a comedian, actor, and filmmaker best known for "The Tom Green Show." He joins Dr. Drew on this episode of Dr. Drew After Dark. Tom discusses su...
                                              Gone full 'Glinner' since June 2022.

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                                                Lastly, the wedding of one of my sisters in '88. They had a non denominational chapel in the UN building in NY. Seemed perfectly bog standard at the time

                                                Gone full 'Glinner' since June 2022.

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                                                  Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.
                                                  Gone full 'Glinner' since June 2022.

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                                                    Originally posted by ComradeCollie View Post
                                                    IPB nostalgia

                                                    A handsome bunch!

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                                                      I nearly had a panic attack when the site was down

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                                                        Originally posted by Gimmeabreak
                                                        The world is fucked. What a tragic case in Newcastle, 3 young kids. I was driving down the N7 last night thinking about it then a few hundred yards in front of me there is a huge crash. The worst crash scene I've ever came across. I can't get my ahead around how it happened to have left such a scene. 1 young person dead. My head is still spinning trying to make sense of it all. I feel for the first responders who arrive on scenes like these.
                                                        I got caught up behind that crash for about half an hour last night too, I was one of the very first to get turned around and let drive back up to Newlands cross as I was just past where the slip road joined luckily out of sight of the carnage. Coming back to Kingswood past the Green Isle I could see a van on its side in absolute bits and what must have been dozens of people working on it. Shocking.
                                                        There had been an unusually calm and understanding atmosphere amongst drivers at that time of night compared to a rush hour delay, everyone knowing that it must have been serious.

                                                        Didn't get into bed until nearly three when I then heard about what happened in Newcastle and the little I slept after that was in some sort of half dream or imagining of someone in a van racing to try to get to Newcastle losing control of their van and ending up in that mess.
                                                        Turning millions into thousands

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                                                          Turning millions into thousands

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                                                            Things should be slowly getting back to normal now. Seems to be finally resolved.

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                                                              Originally posted by 6starpool View Post
                                                              Things should be slowly getting back to normal now. Seems to be finally resolved.
                                                              Not working still for me in the UK (using a vpn works though). Wasn't working for the Flushdraws in Malta either

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                                                                Originally posted by shrapnel View Post
                                                                Not working still for me in the UK (using a vpn works though). Wasn't working for the Flushdraws in Malta either
                                                                Ya, it is working on work mobile and home network now for me, but not personal mobile.

                                                                I should have let it all just die!

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                                                                  Originally posted by Strewelpeter View Post
                                                                  Pretty surprised with myself I recognise all 6 of you

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                                                                    Back for me (Dublin, UPC if that matters) in the last 20 mins.

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                                                                      Originally posted by ArmaniJeans View Post
                                                                      Back for me (Dublin, UPC if that matters) in the last 20 mins.
                                                                      Bet you still call it Switzers too.

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                                                                        Originally posted by Murdrum View Post
                                                                        I suspect like Situation said that some are more complex than simple Poisson but this type of calculation is very easy to use.
                                                                        I wasn't really asking for an explanation of Poisson distribution. I was more wondering how it directly is being used to forecast money lines in games and that it seems a little crude. Just as a very simple example. If after a team scores they tend to sit back, control games and don't over commit to creating chances then this will negatively affect xG. If another team continually attacks and creating chances without much regard for the state of the game then this will positively affect xG. The two teams, when weighted in a more complex system, could have the same EV but looking at pricing the money line with only regard for xG will price them differently?

                                                                        Opr
                                                                        Last edited by Opr; 25-01-20, 15:09.

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                                                                          Originally posted by Strewelpeter View Post
                                                                          3,5,1
                                                                          Gone full 'Glinner' since June 2022.

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                                                                            ...
                                                                            "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

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                                                                              Originally posted by TheJiggaman View Post
                                                                              I actually don’t know where to start with the above comment.

                                                                              xG isn’t expected to win you games. The most important reasoning for xG is for analysts of teams to review the chances of A) their own players and B) for scouting purposes.

                                                                              xG is completely based on shot location, so it isn’t the be all and end all, but there’s always very interesting things come from it. (xS is derived from this too - xy of the shot and goalkeeper location at time of shot)

                                                                              Can actually go into proper detail into it when I’m back from hols and have access to my laptop to screenshot stuff from work if people were interested.
                                                                              Best example of this is the new heatmap for shots in the NBA. the midrange 2 point shot has all but disappeared, either in the paint close to basket or 3 point range. Just look at the differences over time.

                                                                              Running out the door now and cant find the graphic but this is a good explanation of it.

                                                                              By charting the location on the court of events, the crew at 82games.com are able to assess the league wide value of having the ball at certain points of the floor and more.

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                                                                                Originally posted by Trippie View Post
                                                                                Best example of this is the new heatmap for shots in the NBA. the midrange 2 point shot has all but disappeared, either in the paint close to basket or 3 point range. Just look at the differences over time.

                                                                                Running out the door now and cant find the graphic but this is a good explanation of it.

                                                                                https://www.82games.com/locations.htm
                                                                                3pt shot has completely changed the game, not too many guys can shoot 60% from 2pt range to account for the 40% quite a few can shoot from three. It's interesting as you have begun to see a reduction in the average size of NBA players. Also what's interesting is that ability to shoot a high 3pt % in college/HS is not as highly correlated with NBA 3pt shooting as Free throw shooting at that level. Free throw shooting is a better representation of sound fundamentals which can be extended, the 3pt shoot often contains idiosyncratic behaviours that are hard to break which work against lower calibre players who are less athletic and give you more space.
                                                                                The positioning of LeBrons passes this year as he leads the league in assists is effectively a mirror image of the graphic you're referencing.

                                                                                Just to answer OPR, I just gave the background of poisson to show how basic a measurement it is and to highlight it's not used for very low probability events but actual used for discrete independent theoretically infinite events.
                                                                                You're completely right on the example you gave which is where you're getting into conditional probability, the infamous goat behind the door Kevin Spacey used as an example in 21(famous US TV show originally I believe).

                                                                                Basically the probability A occurs ie 2nd goal given probability B occured ie 1st goal is equal to the probability of the intersection of A&B divided by B. I dont know how to work it out but that would be the basic idea. They're not independent events, what could be independent though is the probability in a given zone which is how I expect xG may be done.

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                                                                                  Good to see RDIII getting the most out of the Christmas jumper.

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                                                                                    Not sure if anyone is familiar with Anna Meredith, did the music for that Netflix series Living With Yourself. Best music I've heard in years and years and years:

                                                                                    [WARNING: Flashing lights throughout]Anna Meredith headlines The Scala in London on 23rd November: http://smarturl.it/AnnaMeredithScala. The Vapours is taken...

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                                                                                      Originally posted by zuutroy View Post
                                                                                      Not sure if anyone is familiar with Anna Meredith, did the music for that Netflix series Living With Yourself. Best music I've heard in years and years and years:

                                                                                      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=92o2Qci6ozo
                                                                                      This is a classic indeed.

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                                                                                        Originally posted by Murdrum View Post
                                                                                        Just to answer OPR, I just gave the background of poisson to show how basic a measurement it is and to highlight it's not used for very low probability events but actually used for discrete independent theoretically infinite events.
                                                                                        It is generally used for discrete independent theoretically infinite events where each event has a low probability of success.

                                                                                        Poisson and Binomial aren't that much different because Poisson distribution is essential when you use the binomial distribution and take it to the limit as the number of trials go to infinity. That is all that is meant by discrete independent theoretically infinite events. N is large and P is small for this approximation to work.



                                                                                        Opr

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                                                                                          Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                                                                                          Three letters in a row today from the hospital. One for an appointment for the pre-op heart scan, one with the surgeon, and one with aneasteologist. Why for the love of god would I need a meeting with an aneasteologist?
                                                                                          Pretty standard before any operation.

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                                                                                            Originally posted by ComradeCollie View Post
                                                                                            3,5,1
                                                                                            GFYC
                                                                                            Turning millions into thousands

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                                                                                              Was invited to a party tonight that a Scottish friend and his Chinese wife are having to celebrate Burns Night and the lunar new year, a Chinese-Burns party.
                                                                                              I didn't want to go but they twisted my arm
                                                                                              Turning millions into thousands

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                                                                                                Originally posted by shrapnel View Post
                                                                                                Pretty standard before any operation.
                                                                                                I only remember them asking if I was allergic to various things (seconds before they dosed you). It's probably a trade union thing, where the anesthesiologist wanted parity of some relative payment with the surgeon.
                                                                                                Gone full 'Glinner' since June 2022.

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                                                                                                  Originally posted by Strewelpeter View Post
                                                                                                  GFYC
                                                                                                  Ah shure maybe I was counting from the RHS
                                                                                                  Gone full 'Glinner' since June 2022.

                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                    Originally posted by Opr View Post
                                                                                                    It is generally used for discrete independent theoretically infinite events where each event has a low probability of success.

                                                                                                    Poisson and Binomial aren't that much different because Poisson distribution is essential when you use the binomial distribution and take it to the limit as the number of trials go to infinity. That is all that is meant by discrete independent theoretically infinite events. N is large and P is small for this approximation to work.



                                                                                                    Opr
                                                                                                    I'm not quite sure why you're sharing that to be honest. I was just offering my understanding of why it was used in soccer. Not sure if this is meant as some quick google rebuff but from what I can see it does nothing much but reinforce my point that although not that much difference exists in some outcomes, they are in fact different theoretically.

                                                                                                    Your assertion that poisson is used to model low probability events is wrong as it is not the reason it's employed in soccer. It's fundamentally employed because it's the correct calculation over an above a binomial but even in that case, it's wrong because events-as you anecdotally highlighted- are not independent.

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                                                                                                      Originally posted by Murdrum View Post
                                                                                                      I'm not quite sure why you're sharing that to be honest. I was just offering my understanding of why it was used in soccer. Not sure if this is meant as some quick google rebuff but from what I can see it does nothing much but reinforce my point that although not that much difference exists in some outcomes, they are in fact different theoretically.

                                                                                                      Your assertion that poisson is used to model low probability events is wrong as it is not the reason it's employed in soccer. It's fundamentally employed because it's the correct calculation over an above a binomial but even in that case, it's wrong because events-as you anecdotally highlighted- are not independent.
                                                                                                      I posted the link because it was the first one I found with a mathematical explanation. It is my understanding of how and why it is used in modeling these things. I kinda wish my understanding was based on a quick google to rebuff your point but unfortunately its also from many modules mired in this stuff.

                                                                                                      This isn't a race to the botton but just a discussion on maths which I find interesting hence me pushing you for some more information to see if my understanding is wrong.

                                                                                                      Opr

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                                                                                                        ...
                                                                                                        Last edited by Hitchhiker's Guide To...; 25-01-20, 22:54.
                                                                                                        "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                                          ...
                                                                                                          "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                                            Tommy Tiernan just did an excellent interview with Mollly Bloom, her that ran the big game in NY and had a film made about it.
                                                                                                            Quality interview where he let her tell her story and was smart enough to understand what it was about.

                                                                                                            The show is generally very good, he has even managed to have me watch Brendan O'Carroll and Glen Hansard without throwing things at the TV!
                                                                                                            The show has improved a lot now that they only pretend he doesn't know who is coming on and he has some research done.
                                                                                                            Turning millions into thousands

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                                                                                                              Who is that sitting between Strewl and V in the pic again?

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                                                                                                                Originally posted by hotspur View Post
                                                                                                                Who is that sitting between Strewl and V in the pic again?
                                                                                                                ionapaul
                                                                                                                I hold silver in tit for tat, and I love you for that

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                                                                                                                  Originally posted by Lazare View Post
                                                                                                                  ionapaul
                                                                                                                  Now I can name 3 people in that pic

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                                                                                                                    Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                                                                                                                    I'd imagine poisson is much preferable to negative binomial, as the latter afair weights zeros a bit more than poisson do? That's just from a vaguely remembered research paper we did where the reviewers said don't do poisson as you need negative binomial as your data has more zeros. We just said okeliy dokily and did it. While for goal scoring presumably 1 is a more common score than 0 goals, so poisson suits it better.

                                                                                                                    Is there a dataset made available that these probabilities are calculated from?
                                                                                                                    That type of question is beyond my understanding anyway.
                                                                                                                    I believe you and Hotspur had a somewhat similar discussion before around fishing and some type of zeros model.

                                                                                                                    I suspect someone like Tony Bloom has the answers we actually seek on the topic.

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                                                                                                                      Originally posted by zuutroy View Post
                                                                                                                      Good to see RDIII getting the most out of the Christmas jumper.
                                                                                                                      Took some abuse out of V for that!

                                                                                                                      Fair play to Lao, brought a bottle of wine, went home with a bottle of brandy and a port. Best party organiser ever.
                                                                                                                      "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

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                                                                                                                        Originally posted by shrapnel View Post
                                                                                                                        1917

                                                                                                                        Very underwhelming. the one shot frame ends up being boring. Cinematography is spectacular at times. Story is meh.

                                                                                                                        5/10
                                                                                                                        Correct. Total cinematography circle jerk.

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                                                                                                                          Originally posted by Gimmeabreak
                                                                                                                          The world is fucked. What a tragic case in Newcastle, 3 young kids. I was driving down the N7 last night thinking about it then a few hundred yards in front of me there is a huge crash. The worst crash scene I've ever came across. I can't get my ahead around how it happened to have left such a scene. 1 young person dead. My head is still spinning trying to make sense of it all. I feel for the first responders who arrive on scenes like these.
                                                                                                                          The guy I work the most with in the States is a volunteer fireman. They ended up being among the first responders to the Sandy Hook school shooting. Most of them still not right.

                                                                                                                          He's still out there pulling people out of car crashes, burning buildings etc. An everyday hero.
                                                                                                                          "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

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