Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Bad beat/Moaning/Venting thread - It's the end of the world as we know it

Collapse
This is a sticky topic.
X
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

    Genuinely can’t see Biden beating Trump. If Trump makes it I think he wins.

    a large chunk of americans have drunk the kool aid and even a large number of those who haven’t don’t really want Biden for 4 more years
    Join the IPB Fantasy Football League 19/20

    http://www.irishpokerboards.com/foru...88#post1104188

    Comment


      Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
      The Special Tenth Anniversary Cheltenham Comp is now open for entries.

      Given the momentous occasion that is the tenth anniversary, much like Willie Wonka, I will be giving FREE ENTRY to one lucky BBV dweller.

      All you have to do is write a limerick and post it here. Rules below:
      It must have some kind of horseracing theme
      It must include an IPB personality
      The more defamatory the better
      Multiple entries are allowed
      I will adjudicate the winner on 29-Feb and award the GOLDEN TICKET then.

      Good Luck.
      ’ll enter the competition but I don’t want to win yer prize, money is overrated so I’ll donate as per usual. Also I like the ol Limericks so I hope a few wags enter for the LOLS.

      IPB Comps

      A gambler\donator called ME,
      Had a pain in the hole of his Gee Gee (Gee Gee tenuous horse reference although pronounced GEI)
      As I will never get Rich,
      I am IPBs BITCH,
      In all of these comps, I’m the FISH.




      In for Chelts ta very much, etc etc.


      Comment


        Originally posted by Solksjaer! View Post
        I’m actually baffled that Trump hasn’t been knocked off by a fellow GOP . I can see why the Dems wouldn’t do it. However his comment on Russia recently and his obvious man love for Putin would surely have 90% of the 1950s & 60s GOP so enraged with their raised pitchforks seeking out his innards for a prize. It would serve both parties if he was splattered across some podium somewhere. It might start some kind of tit for tat but sure the pool needs cleansing anyway.

        Biden needs to step down to show some leadership. IE, I’m not up to it , I’m too old folks. Let’s get some younger blood in the hot seat. (a wee stab at his fellow senile dementia rival) .

        Ideally I’d like to see 2 50/60 somethings having a debate with a level of alertness a wee bit above the laziest sloth in the sloth clan.

        Reps are terrified of criticising Trump. There are only a handful that have been critical of him while not stepping down from senate/house/governor jobs. Most rep voters will happily vote for him. What Biden needs to win (assuming it is the 2 of them again) is for the most reluctant of Trump voters to stay away from the polls and the reluctant Biden voters to not stay away in the 5/6 states that will actually decide this election. There are pretty much no voters there now I'd say who will vote that don't know how they will vote. It's become so polarised.

        Comment


          Originally posted by 6starpool View Post

          I thought tiktok was the devil in terms of US politics?
          All the kids get there news form it though.

          Plus the more canvasing Biden can do on social media the more he can lean on his AI double. It is going to be such a shitshow when it all really ramps up with all this AI stuff. There was some talk from the Biden camp of having all election videos linked to the blockchain in someway to verify its whoever whenever a video appears. The Trump camp don't even believe facts most of the time and your going to start talking to them about blockchain verification of videos, good luck with that

          Comment


            5 Furlong Limerick Sprint.


            The Limerick 5 furlongs Began,

            Frontrunner Laz, a greyhound or a man ?
            He checked his behind, Courier Cock he did find
            I’ll come 1st now or I’ll get a whip ban.


            Comment


              Sky let me have €20 on Gretchen Whitmer at 125/1 for the presidency and 100/1 for the Dem nomination.

              Obviously a complete airball but I am getting vibes of the last hours of Brian Cowen here.
              "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

              Comment


                Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                Sky let me have €20 on Gretchen Whitmer at 125/1 for the presidency and 100/1 for the Dem nomination.

                Obviously a complete airball but I am getting vibes of the last hours of Brian Cowen here.
                Cheap shot at a decent dinner

                I may also have sipped some kool aid but I’ve started thinking that maybe Trump is so unhinged about 20 because he knows they stole 16

                Though if Biden does drop out, maybe the dem voters who won’t get out for him will galvanise themselves for a different candidate. Hate and revenge is always likely to motivate more than a simple ‘keep the other guy out’

                i especially think there will be a % of dem voters who are thinking if the reps win it gives them a better shot at getting 8 years afterwards behind a different candidate whereas if Biden gets in now they’ll likely lose the next 1 maybe 2 elections.

                mind you, in a country where having a net worth of $450 sees you better off than 10% of households it’s hardly a surprise that voters are disenfranchised.
                Join the IPB Fantasy Football League 19/20

                http://www.irishpokerboards.com/foru...88#post1104188

                Comment


                  Originally posted by Iago View Post

                  mind you, in a country where having a net worth of $450 sees you better off than 10% of households it’s hardly a surprise that voters are disenfranchised.
                  Thats the flaw with Oxfam stats. That group mainly captures students with big debt who have negative net worth, but who will go on to be the BIG earners in society. Its why people get so annoyed by the Oxfam stuff - that this has been pointed out to them many times yet they consistently get fake stories from it every year.

                  "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post

                    Thats the flaw with Oxfam stats. That group mainly captures students with big debt who have negative net worth, but who will go on to be the BIG earners in society. Its why people get so annoyed by the Oxfam stuff - that this has been pointed out to them many times yet they consistently get fake stories from it every year.
                    I don’t know about Oxfam stats, maybe your point is correct overall but I didn”t take the number from Oxfam.

                    i read a blogpost yesterday that referenced the numbers based on the federal reserve ‘survey of consumer finances’ it may well have the same flaws as you mention above, i’ve no idea. Seems plausible enough that if you have a broad enough cross-section that it would include students with high debts that are a ‘temporal’ issue I suppose.

                    the aim of the post was to review asset over-accumulation in retirement (to dennys point from the other day) rather than exploring wealth inequality as such.

                    Originally posted by blogpost
                    https://earlyretirementnow.com/2023/...es/#more-76139

                    While the average household net worth is above $1m, the median is only $192,700 (all figures rounded to the nearest $100). The Gini coefficient, a measure of inequality (0 means all wealth is equally distributed, while 1.0 would imply one person owns everything and everyone else has zero), is notoriously high in the USA at 0.83, higher than in most other developed nations. Surprisingly, though, Sweden ranked higher, at 0.881 in 2020. Mean and Median net worth and Gini coefficient. Source: Federal Reserve
                    We can also study the distribution in more detail. I calculated the net worth at different percentiles of the distribution. Here are the cutoffs you’d need to make it into the bottom or top 1%, 5%, 10%, and 25%. The bottom 1% and even 5% of households have negative net worth numbers. If you own only $450, you’re already better off than the bottom 10%. Meanwhile, to belong to the top 10%, you’ll need almost $2m. Just under $4m puts you in the top 5%, and you’ll need to reach the “eight-figure club” at over $13m to get into the top 1%. Source: Federal Reserve​
                    it’s a much bigger article with what seemed like a deep dive on the statistics/details behind the report. I follow that guys blog anyway as I think he generally has an interesting viewpoint on things.

                    he alos references your point directly here

                    Originally posted by blogpost

                    The lower end of the net worth distribution in the aggregate number will always look so poor due to the never-ending supply of “poor” people, a.k.a., people in their 20s with low-to-no wealth and a pile of student loan debt. But the path of actual Americans over their lifecycle will look much better!
                    so maybe I should scan less and deep-dive more
                    Last edited by Iago; 12-02-24, 18:45.
                    Join the IPB Fantasy Football League 19/20

                    http://www.irishpokerboards.com/foru...88#post1104188

                    Comment


                      You can obv only get pennies on but another €25 on Whitmer @100s with Bet 365. Hopefully Sleepy Joe turns up to his next presser in his pyjamas.
                      "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by Denny Crane View Post
                        I think there's two main groups of people when it comes to this. People who save nothing, and people who save too much.

                        The stats on people's spending in retirement are eye opening. People who save diligently during their life find it very difficult to actually draw down. They end up spending a fraction of what they planned to. You get get lucky too, a couple of early years of over performance and you'll left with multiples of what you expected.

                        I've no dependents, so perhaps a lack of understand or empathy on my part, but I don't get the idea of sacrificing years to build up an inheritance or paying for private schools. Fuck them .

                        I'm aiming for 45-50. Obv that could easily change.
                        How much would you want to have in the pot at 50 to pull the plug?

                        Comment


                          I am a save nothing, punt everything pension guy at the moment.

                          My life is a series of lottery tickets.
                          All of which are looooooooooooooooooooong shots.

                          I think though that given current skill set, network of investors, things I like doing, and general lifestyle, a mortgage free house is really the goal. Not being beholden is the goal. After thats its all gravy.

                          If I start to introduce kids the complexity increases exponentially however.
                          This may or may not be an original thought of my own.
                          All efforts were made to make this thought original but with the abundance of thoughts in the world the originality of this thought cannot be guaranteed.
                          The author is not liable for any issue arising from the platitudinous nature of this post.

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by Keane View Post
                            How much would you want to have in the pot at 50 to pull the plug?
                            25x your annual lifestyle expenses at 50.

                            Annual expenses are probably not as high as might first assume. Starting with salary, less tax and any money you were punting into mortgage/savings/pension for the final years.
                            If somebody was retiring today at 50. I’d say €1 to 1.25m feels good.

                            Comment


                              That was a great pension discussion going back the last few days. Have been crazy busy with a few things, so haven't been on in a while.
                              "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                How much would you want to have in the pot at 50 to pull the plug?
                                25x your annual lifestyle expenses at 50.

                                Annual expenses are probably not as high as might first assume. Starting with salary, less tax and any money you were punting into mortgage/savings/pension for the final years.
                                If somebody was retiring today at 50. I’d say €1 to 1.25m is a good position. ($50k draw down year 1)

                                Comment


                                  I see Hitch's entire field is completely fraudulent
                                  "I can’t find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson

                                  Comment


                                    Originally posted by Mellor View Post
                                    25x your annual lifestyle expenses at 50.

                                    Annual expenses are probably not as high as might first assume. Starting with salary, less tax and any money you were punting into mortgage/savings/pension for the final years.
                                    If somebody was retiring today at 50. I’d say €1 to 1.25m is a good position. ($50k draw down year 1)
                                    I'd say someone would need closer to 2m in a pension pot to retire comfortably at 50, especially if there are kids/mortgage. People who are in a position to have that much in a pension pot by then would probably have more in the way of expenses typically (tar probably an exception to this rule).

                                    Comment


                                      Happy Mistress Day

                                      Comment


                                        If one were to invest some moneys for 2/3 years what would be a good route via middle to high risk .

                                        Comment


                                          Originally posted by Mellor View Post
                                          25x your annual lifestyle expenses at 50.

                                          Annual expenses are probably not as high as might first assume. Starting with salary, less tax and any money you were punting into mortgage/savings/pension for the final years.
                                          If somebody was retiring today at 50. I’d say €1 to 1.25m is a good position. ($50k draw down year 1)
                                          The way I have thought of going about it is to pack work in at (say) 50 with X in the pension pot & some other chunky amount in some accessible investment, say ETFs, and let the pension grow as long as possible while chewing through the other money. I'm 37 at the moment, and what's in my pot now should grow to ~€1M at 60 assuming 4% growth rate and current contributions to 50, and then leaving it trundle along unassisted (4%) between 50 & 60.

                                          We have a mortgage with ~€244k outstanding & 2 more years fixed at 2.85% so will have to try to start smashing into that from early 2026. Have one child of 2.5 years & probably will look to have another in the next 12-18 months, that would be it then from a family POV more than likely.

                                          I switched from a technical engineering role into a management position in the middle of last year. I make good money but find the work pretty stressful at the moment so have regular thoughts about the exit strategy. Ideally need to figure out how to mentally cope with it a bit better, because other than not enjoying work everything else is going very well.

                                          I had this all worked out a few years ago but haven't revisited it in a while.

                                          Comment


                                            Originally posted by Keane View Post

                                            The way I have thought of going about it is to pack work in at (say) 50 with X in the pension pot & some other chunky amount in some accessible investment, say ETFs, and let the pension grow as long as possible while chewing through the other money. I'm 37 at the moment, and what's in my pot now should grow to ~€1M at 60 assuming 4% growth rate and current contributions to 50, and then leaving it trundle along unassisted (4%) between 50 & 60.
                                            Those are the years though where the tax incentives for making pension contributions are greatest.
                                            "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                            Comment


                                              Originally posted by Solksjaer! View Post
                                              If one were to invest some moneys for 2/3 years what would be a good route via middle to high risk .
                                              I know relatively little about this, but investing something in the riskier end of things for 2/3 years is increasing the risk massively. Stock markets and riskier funds are longer term prospects (10 years probably). If you need the money in a couple of years, stay away from the stock market. Also, if investing outside of a pension fund (or similar tax free vehicle) then you are subject to capital gains tax. For 3 years specifically if you want the money to be safe, go for the government bond. Only 4% but it's tax free and safe (so very low risk). I don't think high risk sounds like a good option unless I'm missing something. If you don't care if you lose 20% of it to risk gaining 20% or more, then someone will have advice I can't give.

                                              Comment


                                                Originally posted by Solksjaer! View Post
                                                If one were to invest some moneys for 2/3 years what would be a good route via middle to high risk .
                                                The IPB Cheltenham Tipping Comp offers tax-free guaranteed* returns.

                                                *0 in your case.
                                                "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                Comment


                                                  Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

                                                  Those are the years though where the tax incentives for making pension contributions are greatest.
                                                  Probably makes more sense to smash the mortgage asap from that POV as I'll be able to catch up on pension contributions later, since I have a good pot compounding away as it is already.

                                                  Comment


                                                    Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

                                                    That would have been useful advice 24 hours ago.

                                                    Meh, it should have been paid so I have no problem paying the dues.
                                                    Why pay now when Scum Fein are reaching out to their core vote from the 'can't pay, won't pay' crowd, offering an amnesty for anyone who hasn't paid their dues on the basis that it's too expensive to pursue them for the money they owe.
                                                    Turning millions into thousands

                                                    Comment


                                                      Originally posted by Keane View Post

                                                      Probably makes more sense to smash the mortgage asap from that POV as I'll be able to catch up on pension contributions later, since I have a good pot compounding away as it is already.
                                                      At that interest rate, I actually think you should be maxing your pension contributions i.e. 20% up to the 115k ceiling
                                                      "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                      Comment


                                                        Originally posted by 6starpool View Post

                                                        I'd say someone would need closer to 2m in a pension pot to retire comfortably at 50, especially if there are kids/mortgage. People who are in a position to have that much in a pension pot by then would probably have more in the way of expenses typically (tar probably an exception to this rule).
                                                        The pension pot amount would be net-equity rather than account balance. If you have 1.5m pension, but a 500k you really only have 1m in the pot (granted a simplification, as pension +EV > mortgage -EV). But I’d rather not carry too much debt post retirement unless rate locked.
                                                        You be surprised how low living expenses are only you remove, income taxes, rent/mortgage, savings, pension contributions.
                                                        A 2m pot would be 80k year 1(4% / 25x)

                                                        Comment


                                                          Originally posted by Solksjaer! View Post
                                                          If one were to invest some moneys for 2/3 years what would be a good route via middle to high risk .
                                                          Cantlay EW at The Riv

                                                          Comment


                                                            Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                                            The way I have thought of going about it is to pack work in at (say) 50 with X in the pension pot & some other chunky amount in some accessible investment, say ETFs, and let the pension grow as long as possible while chewing through the other money. I'm 37 at the moment, and what's in my pot now should grow to ~€1M at 60 assuming 4% growth rate and current contributions to 50, and then leaving it trundle along unassisted (4%) between 50 & 60.
                                                            In that case you’d want to have 1m+ at 50 between the EFTs and pension. As you drawing down the EFTs, the pension is growing to replace it. I’d say 700k in the PP abd 400k in EFTs (which would be subject to CGT).

                                                            Comment


                                                              Originally posted by Dice75 View Post

                                                              Cantlay EW at The Riv
                                                              Have him backed already - did well last year behind Rahm. Horses for courses.

                                                              Comment


                                                                Originally posted by Mellor View Post
                                                                The pension pot amount would be net-equity rather than account balance. If you have 1.5m pension, but a 500k you really only have 1m in the pot (granted a simplification, as pension +EV > mortgage -EV). But I’d rather not carry too much debt post retirement unless rate locked.
                                                                You be surprised how low living expenses are only you remove, income taxes, rent/mortgage, savings, pension contributions.
                                                                A 2m pot would be 80k year 1(4% / 25x)
                                                                I know people will generally stay invested these days with a pension pot, but at 50, there is a reasonable expectation that you'd be around until at least 85. I know expenses will generally dwindle as you get older (as long as medical covered by medical card, etc) but still. At 50, many people will still have dependents too, I know I certainly will.

                                                                What I won;t have at 50 is a pension pot worth close to a million, never mind 2m, so not my problem to contemplate.

                                                                Comment


                                                                  Originally posted by 6starpool View Post

                                                                  I know people will generally stay invested these days with a pension pot, but at 50, there is a reasonable expectation that you'd be around until at least 85. I know expenses will generally dwindle as you get older (as long as medical covered by medical card, etc) but still. At 50, many people will still have dependents too, I know I certainly will.

                                                                  What I won;t have at 50 is a pension pot worth close to a million, never mind 2m, so not my problem to contemplate.
                                                                  my dad recently retired. The amount of holidays they have been on and are planning on going on is definitely not reducing their outgoings.

                                                                  They have lived in the same house for 25 years in Sligo so I can only imagine the mortgage was tiny compared to the semi d we live in Maynooth before hand so even factoring in not needing to pay that one bill I would say they are spending more than previous years.

                                                                  I am possibly missing some major expenses that reduce but I would say the average age of people become to old/infirm to travel / spend money must be 80’s now.


                                                                  Comment


                                                                    Jon Stewart is back doing The Daily Show.

                                                                    Attached Files

                                                                    Comment


                                                                      I know a few people who retired in and around age 50. Not one of them had kids still in education. So aiming for that if you still have a young-ish family strikes me as highly optimistic.
                                                                      "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                      Comment


                                                                        One interesting angle to consider is this. You don’t have to ‘retire’at any age, just transition to something you enjoy doing. Something that in all likelihood will earn you far less money but something you are motivated to do. As RDIII pointed out before, for most, with luck, there will be a couple or throuple (the world is changing) and so it’s possible that up to 50% of earning power will be maintained.

                                                                        with 13 years to plan you have a lot of time to figure out what that might look like and train/develop the skills or whatever to be ready to move.

                                                                        https://www.firecalc.com separately you can play around with numbers here to get a feel for what might be needed. Spend is always the key factor in retirement. What you spend dictates what you need. mellor has mentioned it already but 25/30* annual spend is highly unlikely to run out.

                                                                        if your annual spend is €30k then it’s much easier to find work that will cover that (in an emergency) than if your annual spend is €80k for example.

                                                                        you also have to consider whether you’re looking to essentially go to 0 or leave an inheritance behind you and consider that at some point you may want to trade down/ move abroad which will free up additional cash.

                                                                        I said it before, everyones ‘number’ will be different because the needs, wants and situations are all unique.


                                                                        Join the IPB Fantasy Football League 19/20

                                                                        http://www.irishpokerboards.com/foru...88#post1104188

                                                                        Comment


                                                                          Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                                          The Special Tenth Anniversary Cheltenham Comp is now open for entries.

                                                                          Given the momentous occasion that is the tenth anniversary, much like Willie Wonka, I will be giving FREE ENTRY to one lucky BBV dweller.

                                                                          All you have to do is write a limerick and post it here. Rules below:
                                                                          It must have some kind of horseracing theme
                                                                          It must include an IPB personality
                                                                          The more defamatory the better
                                                                          Multiple entries are allowed
                                                                          I will adjudicate the winner on 29-Feb and award the GOLDEN TICKET then.

                                                                          Good Luck.


                                                                          Defamatory eh..hmmm


                                                                          Our Conor was hard to defeat
                                                                          Backed by the horsehead elite
                                                                          Some say they're snobs
                                                                          Most claim they're knobs
                                                                          All agree though that they're effete​!

                                                                          Comment


                                                                            Originally posted by dinekes View Post



                                                                            Defamatory eh..hmmm


                                                                            Our Conor was hard to defeat
                                                                            Backed by the horsehead elite
                                                                            Some say they're snobs
                                                                            Most claim they're knobs
                                                                            All agree though that they're effete​!

                                                                            Current runaway leader
                                                                            "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                            Comment


                                                                              Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

                                                                              Current runaway leader
                                                                              I can't take that type of pressure

                                                                              ​​​​

                                                                              Comment


                                                                                Originally posted by dinekes View Post

                                                                                I can't take that type of pressure

                                                                                ​​​​
                                                                                There once was a gambler called Duke
                                                                                Who inscribed all his bets in a buke
                                                                                When he summed up his ledger
                                                                                He found he'd no treasure
                                                                                The losses would make ye puke

                                                                                "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                Comment


                                                                                  Originally posted by dinekes View Post

                                                                                  I can't take that type of pressure,
                                                                                  I prefer to Rhyme at my leisure

                                                                                  ​​​​
                                                                                  Ok 3 different poster do the next 3 lines and this supergroup will surely get a tenner each.

                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                    Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

                                                                                    There once was a gambler called Dukedacunt
                                                                                    Who inscribed all his bets in a bukedafuck
                                                                                    When he summed up his ledgerdachrist
                                                                                    He found he'd no treasuredafeck
                                                                                    The losses would make ye pukedabollix

                                                                                    What gambling does to a poet.

                                                                                    Fixed it for you.

                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                      Originally posted by Iago View Post
                                                                                      One interesting angle to consider is this. You don’t have to ‘retire’at any age, just transition to something you enjoy doing. Something that in all likelihood will earn you far less money but something you are motivated to do. As RDIII pointed out before, for most, with luck, there will be a couple or throuple (the world is changing) and so it’s possible that up to 50% of earning power will be maintained.

                                                                                      with 13 years to plan you have a lot of time to figure out what that might look like and train/develop the skills or whatever to be ready to move.

                                                                                      https://www.firecalc.com separately you can play around with numbers here to get a feel for what might be needed. Spend is always the key factor in retirement. What you spend dictates what you need. mellor has mentioned it already but 25/30* annual spend is highly unlikely to run out.

                                                                                      if your annual spend is €30k then it’s much easier to find work that will cover that (in an emergency) than if your annual spend is €80k for example.

                                                                                      you also have to consider whether you’re looking to essentially go to 0 or leave an inheritance behind you and consider that at some point you may want to trade down/ move abroad which will free up additional cash.

                                                                                      I said it before, everyones ‘number’ will be different because the needs, wants and situations are all unique.

                                                                                      Ah yer wasted in retirement, yer brain wants game .

                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                        Originally posted by Solksjaer! View Post

                                                                                        Ok 3 different poster do the next 3 lines and this supergroup will surely get a tenner each.


                                                                                        I can't take that type of pressure
                                                                                        I prefer to rhyme at my leisure
                                                                                        Ridin bareback I'm creative
                                                                                        Last edited by dinekes; 13-02-24, 21:45.

                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                          [QUOTE=dinekes;n1745061]


                                                                                          I can't take that type of pressure
                                                                                          I prefer to rhyme at my leisure
                                                                                          Ridin bareback I'm creative
                                                                                          So if u roll the Dice
                                                                                          it might turn out nice

                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                            Originally posted by 6starpool View Post

                                                                                            I know people will generally stay invested these days with a pension pot, but at 50, there is a reasonable expectation that you'd be around until at least 85. I know expenses will generally dwindle as you get older (as long as medical covered by medical card, etc) but still. At 50, many people will still have dependents too, I know I certainly will.

                                                                                            What I won;t have at 50 is a pension pot worth close to a million, never mind 2m, so not my problem to contemplate.
                                                                                            When I first heard of the 4% “rule”. I felt that was way too low. Assuming that 4% would need to be 8% (of starting) in 20 years, and it’d last ~20yrs. But I know now that I was underestimating growth of the pot verses draw downs.
                                                                                            But calculations, based on historic performance over time that 4% (25x) is unlikely to run out as Iago mentioned above. Certainly 35 years would be the intended application. People following FI/RE to retire in 30s might want to be more conservative.

                                                                                            The kids being adults/out of college is big personal variable of course. I don’t think anyone would be looking to retire with teens about to go to college.

                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                              Yizzer all would be much better off figuring out how to get the kids through education without saddling them with debt than worrying about pensions in your 40's. IMO

                                                                                              Turning millions into thousands

                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                Defo as Richie said need to factor in an ever growing list of class looking holidays that are 10k+ per person.

                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                  There is a French chap named shrap
                                                                                                  His absence was noted in chat
                                                                                                  We all can agree
                                                                                                  Hopefully, just the knee
                                                                                                  He'll be back on his feet in a clap.

                                                                                                  Defamatory and derogatory later...
                                                                                                  This too shall pass.

                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                    RD3 He lives in Killester….
                                                                                                    His rival it seems, had broken his dreams,By stealing the girl of his fancy.Her name was Magill, and she called herself Lil,But everyone knew her as Nancy.

                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                      Originally posted by Strewelpeter View Post
                                                                                                      Yizzer all would be much better off figuring out how to get the kids through education without saddling them with debt than worrying about pensions in your 40's. IMO
                                                                                                      Agree but that one seems reasonable to achieve without too much effort.
                                                                                                      Assuming you’re fortunate enough not to need the 140e children’s allowance(assuming it’s inflation adj) you can let that sit in a 3% savings account and it’ll be worth approx 37K by the time college rolls around.

                                                                                                      It won’t cover it all but it’ll go a long way. I’m adding a little extra each month and putting ours in something which hopefully results in a higher return but it works out around 70K by the time college arrives.
                                                                                                      Last edited by Murdrum; 14-02-24, 10:44.

                                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                                        HH loves Putin, Denny loves Trump,
                                                                                                        One is a midget, the other is plump,
                                                                                                        Mystery hates Rugby ,
                                                                                                        But watches Ireland with Tissues
                                                                                                        CC has movie cock abandonment issues

                                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                                          Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                                                                                          How much would you want to have in the pot at 50 to pull the plug?


                                                                                                          It's more a range than a number, and it constantly evolves. I'm very different at 35 than I was at 25. I presume I'll be very different again at 45 or 50.

                                                                                                          Right now, my spending is probably 60% of what it was in my late 20s (cohabiting and not being on a first name basis with the barman is the local early house would do that) But maybe that will change again. Maybe I'll have dependents (younger or older).

                                                                                                          The real answer is, I don't know. All I can do is continue to max my pension contributions and give myself as many options as possible.



                                                                                                          I think it depends on what sort of retirement you want. I've read stories on AskAboutMoney about people who have retired early. Their day-to-day life involves getting up, reading the news, pottering around the house, garden, and watching some TV in the evening. Which to me, sounds like purgatory.

                                                                                                          On the other end of the scale, there's golfing and cruises. I'm just seeking to go back to what my life was like when I was playing poker, having complete control of my time without being bound to a wage or a job.

                                                                                                          And the number for that is probably a lot lower than some of the numbers mentioned.

                                                                                                          The max I'd be waiting to hit is 800k, (to get the max 25% tax-free), with the mortgage paid off, and some money outside of the pensions.

                                                                                                          But there's also a question of whether it makes sense to take some time off in your 40s and work a bit more in your 50s+. Maybe that's a better use of your time, particularly if you have young children. It's also a chance at a test run. So there are just so many variables at play. It's not just money, it's health and sociability too.

                                                                                                          I think the main thing is that I wouldn't see it as a hard stop - and having enough money never to work again.

                                                                                                          I think it'd be quite tax advantageous to do some short-term contract work. You would pay a lower rate of tax, or if you did it through your own company, there are quite generous allowances for what you can put into your pension. So, that could be an efficient way to earn money. There's probably a few people here already in that bucket.

                                                                                                          So it's my plan for the next few years to look into what I can do to get myself in that kind of position.

                                                                                                          The main thing is just the freedom of not relying on one single source.

                                                                                                          It's about how your frame things too. Pensions are a boring topic that people avoid, but I see it as a fun ticket out. The money going out isn't a cost, it's a path to something else.




                                                                                                          Last edited by Denny Crane; 14-02-24, 11:05.

                                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                                            Originally posted by oleras View Post
                                                                                                            There is a French chap named shrap
                                                                                                            His absence was noted in chat
                                                                                                            We all can agree
                                                                                                            Hopefully, just the knee
                                                                                                            He'll be back on his feet in a clap.

                                                                                                            Defamatory and derogatory later...
                                                                                                            There was a froggy jockey called Shrap
                                                                                                            While in the saddle he needed a crap
                                                                                                            So he shat in his britches
                                                                                                            Which caused savage itches
                                                                                                            Until he wiped himself off with his cap
                                                                                                            "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                                              Originally posted by Mellor View Post
                                                                                                              When I first heard of the 4% “rule”. I felt that was way too low. Assuming that 4% would need to be 8% (of starting) in 20 years, and it’d last ~20yrs. But I know now that I was underestimating growth of the pot verses draw downs.
                                                                                                              But calculations, based on historic performance over time that 4% (25x) is unlikely to run out as Iago mentioned above. Certainly 35 years would be the intended application. People following FI/RE to retire in 30s might want to be more conservative.

                                                                                                              The kids being adults/out of college is big personal variable of course. I don’t think anyone would be looking to retire with teens about to go to college.
                                                                                                              The 4% rule should be more like 2.7%, less if you retire early. The main thing is variable withdrawal rate.

                                                                                                              Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3pIs the 4% rule really 2-3%?Referenced in this video:- Determining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical ...






                                                                                                              I would see me wanting to spend more in retirement than now tbh, just all free time and people should have better health than previous generations.
                                                                                                              Last edited by Tar.Aldarion; 14-02-24, 13:24.

                                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                                Good post DC and I think you nailed it. It's all about creating options and choices for your future self.
                                                                                                                "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                                  Originally posted by elbows View Post
                                                                                                                  RD3 He lives in Killester
                                                                                                                  Young fillies he did pester
                                                                                                                  "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                                    Originally posted by Solksjaer! View Post
                                                                                                                    If one were to invest some moneys for 2/3 years what would be a good route via middle to high risk .

                                                                                                                    Bitcoin to the moon and back baby!


                                                                                                                    *This is not actual financial advice

                                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                                      Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

                                                                                                                      RD3 He lives in Killester
                                                                                                                      Young fillies he did pester​
                                                                                                                      What looked like olivia holt
                                                                                                                      Turned out to be a colt
                                                                                                                      now it doesnt get even a mention
                                                                                                                      This too shall pass.

                                                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                                                        Originally posted by Lao Lao View Post


                                                                                                                        Bitcoin to the moon and back baby!


                                                                                                                        *This is not actual financial advice
                                                                                                                        Yep, it's the 'back' part of that thats worrying

                                                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                                                          Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                                                                                          The Special Tenth Anniversary Cheltenham Comp is now open for entries.

                                                                                                                          Given the momentous occasion that is the tenth anniversary, much like Willie Wonka, I will be giving FREE ENTRY to one lucky BBV dweller.

                                                                                                                          All you have to do is write a limerick and post it here. Rules below:
                                                                                                                          It must have some kind of horseracing theme
                                                                                                                          It must include an IPB personality
                                                                                                                          The more defamatory the better
                                                                                                                          Multiple entries are allowed
                                                                                                                          I will adjudicate the winner on 29-Feb and award the GOLDEN TICKET then.



                                                                                                                          Good Luck.
                                                                                                                          There once was a horse called Raoul Duke,
                                                                                                                          Whose wins were regarded a fluke.
                                                                                                                          He came to fruition,
                                                                                                                          on the last day of the competition,
                                                                                                                          and made Carlin Rose want to puke.

                                                                                                                          In again this year, still gutted after last year's final day mugging.

                                                                                                                          Comment

                                                                                                                          Working...
                                                                                                                          X