Originally posted by Emmet
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I.P.B Sports Betting Syndicate II
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Thing is, finding a 16/1 shot that should be 3/1 is all well and good if you're a pro gambler, but with a syndicate, results speak louder than "value".
You're effectively going on the big spin, with a high probability of failure, so in order to balance any longshots, you're gonna need plenty of sure things too.
It pretty much goes against what a lot of Poker players talk about because there's very little/no chance that you'll get near "the long run". Each round is akin to everyone sitting in a seat and playing one hand at a poker table.
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Originally posted by Flushdraw View PostIMO, if we drop lower than a balance of €60 (€4 per man), we should just split it 5 ways and only put these 5 bets on (@ €12 e.g) until we get a bankroll of at least €5 per man. We could use random.org to choose 5 people or each person could still put up their selections, and between us we choose our favourite 5 selections.
It's going to be a disaster if we're putting on a ton of €3 bets each
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Originally posted by Donk Magnet View Postdefo +1 think we should do a voting system on bets
If we are betting on the Jamican 3rd division bobsled campionship, I really won't have a clue where the value is so a vote from me is meaningless. But no doubt others will just go with the best "value", and by value i'm refering to biggest price which is apparently what people are using to judge it.
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Originally posted by connie147 View PostIf it goes belly up and we have no further winners, why dont we just reload again? If some dont want to reload and want out, so be it. I'm pretty sure we could find replacements. But hopefully the syndicate would stick together for another shot at it.
Connie
For now the problem isn't going broke. It's what to do when we have €60 to go between 15 people. What are you better off putting the €4 on? An evens or a 9/1 shot
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Originally posted by Flushdraw View PostMentioned earlier in the thread, if we go bust we should get someone else to open up a new account so that we get another €200 bonus instead of reloading into this one.
For now the problem isn't going broke. It's what to do when we have €60 to go between 15 people. What are you better off putting the €4 on? An evens or a 9/1 shot'Mental Toughness is doing the right thing for the team when it's not the best thing for you' - Bill Belichick
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Originally posted by eagle eye View PostI think if we go down to €60 or lower we should just have people put up a bet each and whichever two get the most thanks gets put on at €30 each. No use skimping when you get that low, its just no fun.
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Originally posted by shano_88 View PostR.Nadal to win wimbledon @ 11/4
M. Sharpova to win Wimbledon @ 13/8
€18 double.
Got 5/4 on Sharapova.
1 Rafael Nadal @ 11/4
2 Maria Sharapova @ 5/4
Multiple Bets
1 x 18.28 Doubles
Stake: 18.28
Potential Winnings: 135.96"I can’t find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson
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Round 2 bet
UFC 132 - Saturday 2nd July
5 match accum
Dominick Cruz v Urijah Faber
Tito Ortiz v Ryan Bader
Carlos Condit v Dong-Hyun Kim
Dennis Siver v Matt Wiman
Melvin Guillard v Shane Roller
Stake €10.00
6 match accum
Dominick Cruz v Urijah Faber
Tito Ortiz v Ryan Bader
Wanderlei Silva v Chris Leben
Carlos Condit v Dong-Hyun Kim
Dennis Siver v Matt Wiman
Melvin Guillard v Shane Roller
Stake €8.28
Dominick Cruz v Urijah Faber
Sick sick match up.
Faber, the WEC poster boy, and former 145 champ. 25-4 record, his 3 losses came losing and twice trying to reclaim the 145 belt, after which he dropped to 135.
Cruz, undefeated at batumweight, record 17-Faber. This is the rematch.
I have to go with Cruz for this. 135 is his house, he is a lot more experience than the boy who lost in 2007. A rematch with Faber has always been on his mind. Faber has had Brown, Aldo and weight class moves to think about. He prob forgot about Cruz until Cruz took the belt.
Tito Ortiz v Ryan Bader
Tito is a joke at this stage. Bader is coming off a loss to Jones. Who made him look bad, there is no shame in that. Tito is gettign manhandled here. If there was a market on will Tito get cut/retire I'd be lumping on that.
Wanderlei Silva v Chris Leben
My risky bet in the 6 man accum. Both are heavy hitters, both have a habit of just pressing on the pace until somebody drops. Very excited to see this. Silva is historically a far better fighter. But is he past it after 45 fights? I hope not
Carlos Condit v Dong-Hyun Kim
Kim is a good fighter, 14-0 (technically, he lost to Pariasian, but was rules a NC due to painkillers). But he doesn't finish guys. He goes the distance most of the time. conduit doesn't, wins by sub a lot, and lately has shown crisp strikes and knock-out power.
See spoiler
SPOILER
Dennis Siver v Matt Wiman
siver should kick his way to a win here. He may be a german shot arse but he packs serious power. Expect to see some spinning back kicks here.
SPOILER
Melvin Guillard v Shane Roller
Guilard the UFC vetern will be too much for the WEC transfer. This fight is on the undercard and it could easily be a main card fight on any other event.
No betting availible for one of my favourites, the aussie, George Sotiropoulos .
Expecting a win by submission here.
tl;dr
UFC 132 on saturday will be epic
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Originally posted by Mellor View PostUFC 132 - Saturday 2nd July
5 match accum
Dominick Cruz v Urijah Faber
Tito Ortiz v Ryan Bader
Carlos Condit v Dong-Hyun Kim
Dennis Siver v Matt Wiman
Melvin Guillard v Shane Roller
Stake €10.00
6 match accum
Dominick Cruz v Urijah Faber
Tito Ortiz v Ryan Bader
Wanderlei Silva v Chris Leben
Carlos Condit v Dong-Hyun Kim
Dennis Siver v Matt Wiman
Melvin Guillard v Shane Roller
Stake €8.28"I can’t find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson
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Status:
1. AndyFatBastard - €18.28 - Lost
2. The Hurricane - €18.28 - lost
3. Luckforsome - €38.28 - lost 20 - 18.28 left
4. Eagle Eye - €38.28 - lost
5. Shano_88 - €38.28 - lost
6. Flushdraw - €18.28 - lost
7. Connie147 - €18.28 - lost
8. Donk Magnet - €18.28 - lost
9. Keane - €38.28 - €20 lost - €18.28 left
10. Mellor - €18.28 - lost
11. Bubbleking - €18.28 - lost
12. NuckChorris - €18.28 - lost
13. SuperGoonars - €18.28 - lost
14. InsanoDude - €18.28 - lost
15. healwayscallsmedonkey - €18.28 - lost
Unplaced bets:
LuckForSome - €18.28
Keane - €18.28
Account balance: €58.77
Right, Round 2 is officially over. Some people made some bad decisions but this round was mostly bad because of runbad. London won their first game in years FFS. Two upsets in the tennis finals + massive fav in the horses losing = a bad round for us.
I say for Round 3 we let the person who had the biggest winning bet* so far take a one-time shot with the remainder (€22.21 btw). LFS and Keane can take their shots whenever they like or carry them forward to Round 4.
In the meantime, Hurricane opens a new account and we all ship him another €20. If anyone wants out they can drop out. I'll ship whatever money's left from R3 to Richie when the round is done. From Round 4 onwards, only half the stake will be in play in any round, making it impossible for the syndicate to go busto due to 3 bad results. All in favour?
*This was Mellor with a €10 accum putting the rest of us to shame."I can’t find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson
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Originally posted by Flushdraw View PostNo joy in Mellor's UFC bet
I know Tito and Leben won so that's enough to bust the accums
His upset win cost us in the first bet
Leben's KO was the only other loser, but it was a good KO and Lebens a good lad so no bad words there
Originally posted by The Hurricane View PostWhen did i sign up for thisOriginally posted by AndyFatBastard View PostOriginally posted by The Hurricane View PostIf everyone puts another 20 in and let's me make all the wagers, we will have many profits and a free Christmas for allLast edited by Mellor; 04-07-11, 00:01.
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...I'm Looking to place my bet if possible...
...It's a Soccer Double...
...Its Brazil to win the Copa America, and Germany to win the womens world cup...
...Lemme know if its alright to do a bet thats kinda long term...
...Also, I'd like to continue in this, but wont be able to ship any money until I get home from vegas in 2 weeks...Hope thats ok...
...Cheers...
...Liam...
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Originally posted by luckforsome View Post...I'm Looking to place my bet if possible...
...It's a Soccer Double...
...Its Brazil to win the Copa America, and Germany to win the womens world cup...
...Lemme know if its alright to do a bet thats kinda long term...
...Also, I'd like to continue in this, but wont be able to ship any money until I get home from vegas in 2 weeks...Hope thats ok...
...Cheers...
...Liam..."I can’t find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson
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Originally posted by Keane View PostDid my bet get placed with the changeover yesterday Andy?
I posted it in here but it's disappeared..."I can’t find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson
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Originally posted by Keane View PostArmagh
Kildare
Tyrone
Meath
Dublin
Mayo
Down
Tipperary (Hurling)
8-fold accumulator.
1 Armagh @ 1/8
2 Kildare @ 5/11
3 Tyrone @ 2/7
4 Meath @ 8/15
5 Down @ 1/20
6 Dublin @ 2/11
7 Mayo @ 8/11
8 Tipperary @ 1/4
Multiple Bets
1 x 18.18 8 Folds
Stake: 18.18
Potential Winnings: 138.95"I can’t find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson
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Originally posted by luckforsome View Post...It was there, i think its there when the matches are not being played..I couldnt tell you the exact time though sadly, I've very little access to it...
they were odds on afaik, but its great value...
...cheers...
...Liam...
1 Germany Women @ 10/11
2 Brazil @ 12/5
Multiple Bets
1 x 18.28 Doubles
Stake: 18.28
Potential Winnings: 100.37
***BET PLACED***"I can’t find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson
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Originally posted by Donk Magnet View Posti cant help already have a bet365 acc . could get the gf to set one up and u keep control of it if u want andy"I can’t find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson
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Originally posted by AndyFatBastard View PostGot it.
1 Germany Women @ 10/11
2 Brazil @ 12/5
Multiple Bets
1 x 18.28 Doubles
Stake: 18.28
Potential Winnings: 100.37
***BET PLACED***
Not sure about Keane's bet."I can’t find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson
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Originally posted by AndyFatBastard View PostGermany are out, lost to Japan in the QF. LOL wimmins football.
Not sure about Keane's bet.
1 Armagh @ 1/8
2 Kildare @ 5/11
3 Tyrone @ 2/7
4 Meath @ 8/15
5 Down @ 1/20
6 Dublin @ 2/11
7 Mayo @ 8/11
8 Tipperary @ 1/4
Multiple Bets
1 x 18.18 8 Folds
Stake: 18.18
Potential Winnings: 138.95
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We've €22.21 left.
We are putting it on a single bet to get out of the hole and start the spin up.
I've been chosen to make the pick as I had the best profit. Or rather the smallest loss.
I've decided to go with the Copa America
Bear Grills-esque survival bet
Copa America
Chile v Peru 8/13
Uruguay v Mexico 4/9
Paraguay v Venezuela 4/7
Brazil v Ecuador 1/4
Should just return over €100
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Not that it matters but that bet seems just awful to me. You are backing against two teams who are unbeaten so far in the Copa America. Not only that but the other two teams you are backing haven't won a game yet.'Mental Toughness is doing the right thing for the team when it's not the best thing for you' - Bill Belichick
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Originally posted by eagle eye View PostNot that it matters but that bet seems just awful to me. You are backing against two teams who are unbeaten so far in the Copa America. Not only that but the other two teams you are backing haven't won a game yet.
Uruguay v Mexico - Uraguay have two draws against both Chile and Peru. Which isn't a bad result in either considering the above. Mexico have no points so far.
Paraguay v Venezuela - Again both unbeaten, Paraguay have 2 draws, Venezula have a draw and a win again equador (the worst team in the group imo)
Brazil v Ecuador - Brazil have two draws and equador have 1 loss and a draw/ Brazil need the win to go through, and I am confidant they turn up here.
So while your comment above is not untrue, its pretty misleading.
It could also be described as betting on 2 unbeaten teams and the other two teams I am betting against have only 1 point between them. Quite a different picture to the one you painted above. Yet just as accurate.
I've no problem with you or anyone commenting on the bet. But if you are going to do so, at least give the full story. Posting something deliberately misleading is pointless.
Most importantly, the whole lot is based on a sample of 2 games per team. Hardly significant.Last edited by Mellor; 13-07-11, 01:07.
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Originally posted by Mellor View PostChile v Peru - Both are unbeaten with 1Win and 1 Draw, so your point doesn't mean much really. I did consider a draw here for a bit.
Uruguay v Mexico - Uraguay have two draws against both Chile and Peru. Which isn't a bad result in either considering the above. Mexico have no points so far.
Paraguay v Venezuela - Again both unbeaten, Paraguay have 2 draws, Venezula have a draw and a win again equador (the worst team in the group imo)
Brazil v Ecuador - Brazil have two draws and equador have 1 win and a draw/ Brazil need the win to go through, and I am confidant they turn up here.
So while your comment above is not untrue, its pretty misleading.
It could also be described as betting on 2 unbeaten teams and the other two teams I am betting against have only 1 point between them. Quite a different picture to the one you painted above. Yet just as accurate.
I've no problem with you or anyone commenting on the bet. But if you are going to do so, at least give the full story. Posting something deliberately misleading is pointless.
Most importantly, the whole lot is based on a sample of 2 games per team. Hardly significant.
Retarded bets like this one have to be avoided at all costs. And just to clarify, even if it comes up its still a ridic bet.'Mental Toughness is doing the right thing for the team when it's not the best thing for you' - Bill Belichick
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Regardless whether some bets are +EV or not and lets admit most are not its the structure of some of the bets that it letting down the syndicate. Yankee with odds on shots and doubles from 3 selections as well as betting on tennis because the bettor thinks their selection should win with no thought as to the odds offered. Also why have their been times when one event has had an effect on more than half the accumulators? Thats always going to end bad in the medium term.
It seems people want to put on 10/1 accumulators so if they bink they get congratulated knowing they are more than likely going to lose any profit they made in the next two rounds.
Someone that is more knowagable that the average punter should do a write up and explain that its the ROI that is important more so than trying to squeeze out a 10/1 bet when the only bet you are sure of being +EV in the accumulator is an even money bet. You should only bet the even money shot in this case.
It would be good to have a syndicate where you can only bet singles and you have to do a write up to explain why you are choosing that bet and why you think its value at the odds offered.
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Originally posted by Mellor View PostWe've €22.21 left.
We are putting it on a single bet to get out of the hole and start the spin up.
I've been chosen to make the pick as I had the best profit. Or rather the smallest loss.
I've decided to go with the Copa America
Bear Grills-esque survival bet
Copa America
Chile v Peru 8/13
Uruguay v Mexico 4/9
Paraguay v Venezuela 4/7
Brazil v Ecuador 1/4
Should just return over €100"I can’t find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson
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Originally posted by eagle eye View PostAs I said it doesn't matter much but you are on a four team accum. each with three possible results and based on the 8 game sample its highly unlikely to come up. Only reason I'm pointing this out is for when we reload.
Retarded bets like this one have to be avoided at all costs. And just to clarify, even if it comes up its still a ridic bet.
Just because an accum is 10/1 is will more than likely not come up doesn't make it a bad bet.
Weather it's likely or not to come up has zero effect on the value. Do you understand that?
The fact that there 3 options isn't an issue. I'm fully aware that its more likely to miss than hit, that's a given. But based on the odds of each match, and how I feel they'll play, I think each team I picked is +EV. I wouldn't have made the choice if I didn't
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Like CheckRaise said there is no point betting without considering the odds. I rarely do football accums as I think the likes of the EPL are too tightly priced. I picked this one because I think each match is +EV.
Didn't you put all your stake on one pretty similar accum, in Super 15?
There is nothing wrong with that, as long as each option is +EV.
It's fine if you disagree with the bet, but explain why? As it stands you haven't done so.
The unbeaten/no win comment above is pretty retarded.
Going on W/D/L stats (which isn't even that sensible) 2 picks are ahead, 1 is even and one is behind.
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And Eagle Eye, I fully agree that people have to start being smarter with their bets. I jsut don't feel the likes of the bet above are the issue.
Originally posted by AndyFatBastard View PostNo inplay betting so it's a treble I'm afraid. Sorry Mellor I was a mess this morning and didn't put it on then. Bet placed anyway.
For the sake of it they won 1-0
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Originally posted by Mellor View Post
It's fine if you disagree with the bet, but explain why? As it stands you haven't done so.
Uruguay vs Mexico Cavani was out for the game, they had been stuggling to score. Mexico are poor. Prob the best bet of the four games tbf. As if turned out Uruguay were all over Mexico but failed to convert all but one of their chances while Mexico had one disallowed. No complaints about the price though as a win here always looked on the cards tbf.
Paraguay vs Venezuela Paraguay have looked ok but Venezuela are a good side. They have played well in the tournament and are well known for holding top teams. You have players like da Silva, Veron, Vera and Santa Cruz who will suffer from so many games in a short space of time. I think a draw is on the cards here. Venezuela just need a point to top be certain of topping the group. They are well versed and good at shutting up shop. I'd want to be getting 6/4 here at the very worst. 4/7 is an awful price imo.
Brazil vs Ecuador Brazil have been a major disappointment in this tournament. They really have suffered in midfield and they have found it difficult to break down teams in a lot of their recent games not just at this Copa America. No doubt they have talent but they just seem to be missing the link man. Ecuador are the draw specialists. In their last 11 games they have 1 win 2 losses and 8 draws. The last time they met Brazil was in the WC qualifiers where they drew with them at home and thats not part of their last 11 games btw. At 1/4 I don't like it. I do think they will win it but I'm not hugely confident. I can understand why they are that price(its because they are Brazil) but I don't think this team is even close to what we normally expect the standard of Brazilian football to be.'Mental Toughness is doing the right thing for the team when it's not the best thing for you' - Bill Belichick
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Originally posted by Mellor View PostDidn't you put all your stake on one pretty similar accum, in Super 15?
There is nothing wrong with that, as long as each option is +EV.
Now I understand when you are doing MMA that the prices can be really short and that outcomes are a lot more certain in a lot of instances.
I realise now that my comments might come across as having a go at you and I wasn't doing that tbh or I didn't mean to. I'm just trying to put it out there that we should do this when we reload. People have to think about things a bit more than was done on our first attempt.
I think we should have a chat about things before we start betting again. I think a proposed bet should have to get thanked by a couple of the members before its placed. I think people should put up their reasons why they think something is a worthwhile bet. I think everybody should pick what they think are their 10 best sports, rank them in order and then not bet outside those and bet less the further down that list they go. I'm open to having a chat online with anybody whenever I'm available about a bet I might want to make or that somebody else wants to make. Myself and Connie had a chat about a few bets a couple of weeks ago and we came to a pretty good conclusion after it.
I know at the end of the day its only a bit of fun but we should still take it very seriously imo.'Mental Toughness is doing the right thing for the team when it's not the best thing for you' - Bill Belichick
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Peru were guaranteed to go through on 5 pts, Chilli were on 4 and could of been caught by Uruguay (via GD), which is one reason I felt they were going to press it more.
I think para and brazil should paly well under pressure.
The important thing is we have a sweat to tomorrow.
Originally posted by eagle eye View PostNow I understand when you are doing MMA that the prices can be really short and that outcomes are a lot more certain in a lot of instances.
I think we should have a chat about things before we start betting again. I think a proposed bet should have to get thanked by a couple of the members before its placed. I think people should put up their reasons why they think something is a worthwhile bet. I think everybody should pick what they think are their 10 best sports, rank them in order and then not bet outside those and bet less the further down that list they go. I'm open to having a chat online with anybody whenever I'm available about a bet I might want to make or that somebody else wants to make. Myself and Connie had a chat about a few bets a couple of weeks ago and we came to a pretty good conclusion after it.
Chatting about bets, either on thread or via pm or MSN is also a good idea. Only good can come from it
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@ EE, Chile also had an man sent off. Talk about post performance/result based thinking, they were definitely value before the game giving line ups.
@Mellor. Chile and Peru were both on four points and both already through. How could a team ever get to 5pts after two games.
FWIW as accums go, I like it.Last edited by The Situation; 13-07-11, 12:55.Profit before people.
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Im not sure if I agree that members have to put their bets up here for the approval of others, but maybe I am misunderstanding whats being said.
Having said that, I'm fuly committed to this syndicate and it going forward. I 100% agree with the above poster who said that when a bet is being put up, the poster has to give reasoned explanation as to why he chose that bet. I dont think its too much to expect for a member to explain why he is chosing the bet he is placing.
Being involved in a syndicate like this should (in theory anyway) make us all better sports betters!
Connie
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Originally posted by The Situation View Post@ EE, Chile also had an man sent off. Talk about post performance/result based thinking, they were definitely value before the game giving line ups.'Mental Toughness is doing the right thing for the team when it's not the best thing for you' - Bill Belichick
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Originally posted by AndyFatBastard View PostActually I could do this... I'll check with her if it's ok first obv."I can’t find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson
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Originally posted by The Situation View Post@Mellor. Chile and Peru were both on four points and both already through. How could a team ever get to 5pts after two games.
I meant to say Peru were top and Uruguay could of made it to 5pts.
I don't know what everyone keeps saying they were both already through? They had 4 pts, Uruguay had 2. Neither was safe.
The fact that Peru didn't go through kinda highlights this.
Originally posted by Live updatesParaguay 2 - 1 Venezuela
70' Venezuela are now second to every ball and look likely to concede another before the night is out.
82' Paraguay still the stronger side, Venezuela hanging in there but have lost much of their early impetus. Rondon's threat has been nullified.
5 yellows given out in 10mins
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