IPB Hero Our Conor Memorial Thread - (Horses Betting Obv)

[horatio1]

I tend to read way too much into these things but Willie Mullins has the second fav in the last at Dundalk and Patrick rides the fav for Adrian McGuinness.

[Silver-Tiger]

Any good Podcasts that are must listen on the lead up to the big week?

First bet for the festival was last night .Backed Noble Endeavor ew @ 14s for the Ultima HC.

[angle_grinder]

I tend to read way too much into these things but Willie Mullins has the second fav in the last at Dundalk and Patrick rides the fav for Adrian McGuinness.

I don't think Patrick would be able to get down to 11-1 to ride for his father.

[angle_grinder]

Actually he has got down to 11-1 in the last year but I would reckon it be a struggle for him.

[DeadParrot]

Betfair Preview Night

[DeadParrot]

1

SPOILER

The Ballykisteen Hotel in Tipperary was the venue for this year’s charity Cheltenham Festival preview night. A shrewd panel looked at the major races of the festival and also gave their thoughts on the festival handicaps and a fancy for the festival top jockey. The panel on the night consisted of:

Pat Healy
Pat Brennan
Enda Bolger
Tom Mullins
Tommy Lyons
Tom Hogan
We’ve put together their thoughts on the 2017 festival:

FESTIVAL DAY 1

1.30 Tuesday – Supreme Novices Hurdle

Melon, trained by Willie Mullins has been this year’s “talking horse”. He is well regarded by his trainer and by the punters and the bookmakers who have taken cover and priced him up as favourite in a wide open but ultra-competitive opening race. The panel were not convinced by Melon’s maiden victory at Leopardstown and think he is underpriced in the market. The race could fall apart as some horses toward the head of the market may be re-routed.

Enda Bolger thinks C&D winner Moon Racer is the one to be with in this race. This horse was beaten just once in his injury interrupted career and that defeat came in a bumper last season. Both Tommy Lyons and Tom Hogan think Bunk Off Early can win this race for Willie Mullins and not the favourite. Just outstayed on ground that didn’t suit last time out against a strong staying stablemate, on good ground Bunk Off Early is fancied to prevail in the first. Although he may not run, Charli Parcs could take some beating if he runs, the 4yo is entered in the Triumph H’dle and a decision won’t be made on him until closer to the race.

Cheltenham Sunday
Moon Racer For The Supreme Novices Hurdle?

2.10 Arkle Nov’ Chase

There was a unanimous verdict that Altior will win this race. The Nicky Henderson horse has beaten all before him this season and looks impossible to beat. Two horses that the panel think can outrun their big prices and finish in the money are Royal Caviar and Le Prezien. Both Enda Bolger and Pat Brennan think Royal Caviar is improving and can run a big race if getting over his fall last time out at Leopardstown. With lots of horses still to come out of the race, the panel felt at double figure prices Royal Caviar and Le Prezien can run well for e/w players.

3.30 Champion Hurdle

The feature race on day 1, the panel was split on their selections. Pat Brennan thought Irish Champion hurdle winner Petit Mouchoir is coming into the race in great shape and thinks he can take the spoils for Waterford trainer Henry de Bromhead and add to his two Grade 1s this season. Tommy Lyons thinks Yanworth can deliver for trainer Alan King and added that he felt the Champion Hurdle will be run to suit him with a strong gallop being set by Petit Mouchoir. Tom Hogan thought Buveur Dair can give Nicky Henderson a quick double on day 1. Due to the pace in the race, Tom felt that a stayer is needed to win a Champion Hurdle and fitting the same profile as previous winner Rock on Ruby, Buveur Dair looks the horse to be on for Tom Hogan.

FESTIVAL DAY 2

1.30 Neptune Nov’ H’dle

This race divided opinion and the panel argued their cases for a number of horses. A popular choice was the Harry Fry trained Neon Wolf who won impressively at Haydock. Although he has a number of entries, this looks the most likely race provided the ground is on the softer side of good. Pat Brennan and Enda Bolger felt that Bacardys is the standout bet at double figure prices. Tommy Lyons thought Let’s Dance is one of the bets of the festival whatever race she is entered in. A strong galloping horse, Let’s Dance impressed with the way she galloped away from the field on her last run under Ruby Walsh. Towards the head of the market, the panel felt that Finian’s Oscar was not impressive on his last run and is probably too short in a very competitive looking race.

2.10 RSA Nov’ Chase

The Noel Meade trained Disko proved to be quite popular with both Tom Mullins and Enda Bolger. A recent winner of a Grade 1 at Leopardstown, the bold jumping grey is fancied to run a big race at potentially double figure odds. Coney Island might line up in the JLT Nov’ Chase but he is currently second in the betting for this race and Pat Brennan spoke highly of his run at Christmas when going down by a short margin in probably the strongest Novice Chase over 3 miles to be run in both Ireland and England this season. Lots of runners will line up elsewhere so at the current prices, Disko was the most popular choice.

3.30 Champion Chase

As with Altior on day 1, Douvan is said to be unbeatable. At his current price of 1/3, this race won’t be a betting proposition for most but one horse that the panel thought could outrun his odds is God’s Own. The Tom George trained 8yo is fancied to run well on ground that will suit and the panel advised an e/w play or a bet without Douvan.

HORSE RACING
Can God’s Own Beat The Unbeatable Douvan?

4.10 Cross Country Chase

Enda Bolger saddles a number of runners but the favourite Cantlow was discussed by the panel. A short priced favourite, he is sure to be a warm order with punters who will want to side with the trainer who has such a great record in this race. Enda himself spoke highly of Auvergnat and thinks he can run well over the 3m 6f as he just a 7yo. The younger legs may just prevail over the marathon distance and may be the one to trouble Cantlow.

5.30 Champion Bumper

The panel were convinced that this race goes to an Irish horse and focused on two horses in particular. Carter Mckay was an expensive purchase but has been a very impressive winner on both his starts to date. Tom Hogan spoke highly of this horse and said he is the best bet in the race while both Tom Mullins and Enda Bolger agreed. His win over 2m 3f ensures he will stay the trip and assured stayers go well in this race. At a bigger price Red Jack was the choice of both Pat Brennan and Tommy Lyons. A winner on his debut at Naas, at a double figure price he could be a great e/w bet.

FESTIVAL DAY 3

1.30 JLT Nov’ Chase

A competitive race to begin day 3, Yorkhill was deemed to be too short in the betting and value lies elsewhere. Coney Island will carry the hopes of Pat Brennan if he runs in this race while both Tommy Lyons and Tom Hogan thought Charbel can go very well at a double figure price. This horse was formerly trained by Tom Mullins who also backed up this horses claims. A horse who goes well fresh and will see out the trip, Charbel could be the e/w play in this race.

2.50 Ryanair Chase

Former winner Uxizandre made an eye-catching comeback from injury last time out. The “bounce factor” was spoken of as a worry for the panel but Tom Hogan thinks this C&D winner will improve from his first run back after a long absence. In front of Uxizandre on his comeback was Un De Sceaux who at the current prices was the pick of Pat Brennan. A winner of the Arkle and runner up in the Champion Chase last year, Pat thought that this horse ticks all the right boxes and will go off much shorter on the day. Tom Mullins thought Empire Of Dirt is one of the horses to back for the week. Owner Michael O’Leary has made no secret of his desire to win this race and after a win at the festival last year, Gordon Elliott will have this horse trained to the minute. Just beaten in the Irish Gold Cup last time out, he is primed for a big run.

un-de-sceaux
Un De Sceaux – Pat’s Pick For The Ryanair Hurdle

3.30 Stayers H’dle

Shaneshill was the fancy of Pat Brennan for this race. A horse that boasts some great course form, the trip will be no problem and at the current prices, Pat thought this horse was the one to side with. Tommy Lyons thought Unowhatimeanharry is a worthy favourite and looks to be one of the bankers of the week. Tom Hogan agreed and called it one of his “bankers”. A winner of his last 8 races, Harry Fry’s horse has all the desired qualities one should for when trying to find a winner of this race. He is battle-hardened and can grind out a victory over the 3 miles trip. Snow Falcon was in the process of running a big race before falling 3 out against Unowhatimeanharry at Newbury in November and at the current prices he is fancied by Tommy Lyons to run well. Former Champion Hurdler Jezki looks more likely to turn up here than back over 2 miles and after a disappointing run at Gowran, Tom Mullins fancies him to improve vastly as he reckoned Jezki ran about 1 stone below his best. A return to good ground should suit and already a winner over 3 miles at Punchestown in 2015, he should run his race.

FESTIVAL DAY 4

1.30 Triumph H’dle

The panel were in agreement that this race revolves around the JP McManus owned pair Defi Du Seul and Charli Parcs. The Philip Hobbs trained Defi Du Seul has already won 3 times at the track and justifies his place at the head of the market. Charli Parcs is not certain to run here as he also has an entry in the Supreme Novices on day 1 but should he turn up in this race, Enda Bolger felt that he will be half his current price on the day. As an e/w bet at a double figure price, Pat Brennan thinks Dinaria Des Obeaux is sure to run a big race. Beaten by Mega Fortune at Leopardstown on his last run, Dinaria Des Obeaux made a very bad mistake a couple of hurdles from home before rallying strongly to finish 3rd.

2.50 Albert Bartlett Nov’ H’dle

Pat Brennan nailed his colours to the mast and made Death Duty his NAP of the week. Improving with every run, he has won his Grade 1, 2 and 3 this season and is one of the Irish bankers of the week at his current price. The Henry de Bromhead trained Monalee is a horse that Tommy Lyons thought can outrun his current double figure price. An impressive winner on terrible ground in Clonmel last time out, he will improve for the run and the better ground will suit him. The panel were in agreement that Death Duty is a worthy favourite and will take some beating.

3.30 Gold Cup

The feature race of the week sees Djakadam as the one that the panel have decided upon as the best bet in the race. He has had a better prep than last year and will arrive into the race fresh. Having been runner up in the last 2 renewals it could be a case of 3rd time lucky for Djakadam. Cue Card is deemed to be too old to win this race by the panel and current favourite Native River could turn up a tired horse according to Tom Mullins. He has been on the go since November and after some impressive performances carrying big weights, it could be that a fresher horse gets the better of him. Outlander was an impressive winner of the Lexus Chase at Christmas and he will be on many punter’s shortlist as he bids to give Gordon Elliott a second consecutive win in the race. Outlander had several of his Gold Cup rivals finish behind him at Christmas and at the current price he is seen as a solid e/w bet. After much debating, Djakadam was the majority vote by the panel.

4.10 Foxhunter Chase

On The Fringe is bidding to win this race for a 3rd time and Enda Bolger spoke highly of his horse. The yard are very pleased with how he is working and his comeback run at Leopardstown against a race fit Foxrock was very pleasing. Tom Hogan spoke highly of On the Fringe and said he felt the short priced favourite would have no problems in taking the race. Pat Brennan thought Wonderful Charm would give the favourite most to think about and rates a huge danger. Pacha Du Polder was in the headlines last year as he was ridden by Olympian Victoria Pendleton in this race. A 5th place finish was probably disappointing as he was full of running at the end and Tom Mullins rated him as having a serious chance at finishing a lot closer to the winner this year and maybe even beating him.

PANEL HANDICAP FANCIES

Pat Brennan – Diamond King – Brown Advisory Plate H’Cap Chase 4.10 Day 3

Tommy Lyons – Diamond King – Brown Advisory Plate H’Cap Chase 4.10 Day 3

Tom Hogan – The Storyteller – Coral Cup H’Cap H’dle 2.50 Day 2

Tom Mullins – Scoir Mear – Coral Cup H’cap H’dle 2.50 Day 2

CHARITY BETS

Enda Bolger – Yanworth

Tom Mullins – Empire Of Dirt

Tom Hogan – Neon Wolf

Tommy Lyons – Let’s Dance

Pat Brennan – Coney Island (JLT Nov’ Chase) /Diamond King*

(If Coney Island does not run in the JLT, Pat’s selection is Diamond King)

[DeadParrot]

2

SPOILER

Cheltenham Preview Night - Thursday 23rd February 2017 - Ormond Hotel, Nenagh, Co. Tipperary - all proceeds go to the Injured Jockeys Fund.

The Panel;
Davy Russell (DR), National Hunt Jockey, Cheltenham Record Holder
Joseph O'Brien (JOB), Trainer, former group one winning Flat Jockey
Johnny Ward (JW), Journalist w/Irish Independent, formerly Racing Post
Dave Kenna (DK), Journalist w/The Irish Field
Kevin O'Ryan (KOR), Interviewer on At The Races, Jockey Agent

M.C. - Denis Kirwan (Racing Journalist)

Supreme;
DR – good standard of a race but thinks Melon is a disgraceful price at 3/1, will be 5/1 or 6/1 on the day. Thinks this is the race for Finian’s Oscar, made a point about him being the only G1 winner in the race.
JW – said Finian’s Oscar won’t run here!
KOR – was worried that it was a season too soon for Finian’s Oscar but Davy countered that due to the time of year he was born, he had received a full years training prior to his PTP. Likes Bunk Off Early despite being by Zebadee, stamina on the dam side and he liked the way he finished his race off at Leopardstown after running free early, and the good gallop of a Supreme will suit him.
JOB – really likes Bunk Off Early who beat a well-regarded one of theirs (Outspoken).
DK – Moon Racer has all the form, he’ll be surprised if Ruby doesn’t ride Bunk Off Early.

Arkle;
DR – thinks Yorkhill should run here as he is too keen over a distance and his jumping suffers as a result – advised taking the price in the NRNB market. If you are looking for some value, Some Plan may have been the only horse that finished the Irish Arkle (and he stressed that differing ground conditions have to be taken into account) but the time was very fast. Also mentioned Royal Caviar for the place money.
JOB – just remarked that Willie Mullins will always put the right horse in the right race. Thinks the better the race the better Yorkhill goes so this could be the race for him.
JW – doesn’t buy into the Altior hype but thinks Willie will go for the simpler option with Yorkhill (JLT)
KOR – Some Plan/Royal Caviar w/o favourite. Told a story about how Willie Mullins supplemented Wicklow Brave for the Irish Ledger two minutes before the deadline after twice denying he would run because two AOB runners were withdrawn so there was no danger of him finishing too close to the them and upsetting his mark for the Melbourne Cup. There is no grand plan and everything is fluid – Willie Mullins is going to do what he wants to do and doesn’t give a f**k about anyone else.

Champion Hurdle;
DK – likes Limini if supplemented in a very open race. Petit Mouchoir probably has the best form this year but it looks weak. Yanworth not good enough. Jessie is very happy with Jezki. Tombstone will be supplemented.
DR – thinks Nichols Canyon is the best horse in the race on form and they should make the running with him. Thinks Buveur D’Air jumping style suits a return to hurdles but would hate to see Yorkhill returned to hurdles. Would like to ride Tombstone in the race if he was supplemented.
JW – really likes Yanworth and thinks he has no holes. Rang Willie about Limini and although he didn’t get an answer, he thinks she will be supplemented. Doesn’t think Yorkhill will go Gold Cup next year and thinks he will be kept over shorter distances.
KOR – Petit Mouchoir has no chance. Thinks Yanworth is the one, feels that Barry has never gotten to the bottom of him. Will be shocked if Limini isn’t supplemented, and you can draw a line through her final run of last season. Made the point about all the excuses being made for Apples Jade when it was Limini’s first run of the season and thinks the form will stand.

Neptune;
DR – great race with great depth, thinks it is the race for Death Duty as he has class and AB runners usually need 3 miles minimum as a necessity which Death Duty doesn’t. NRNB 16/1.
JOB – thinks Augusta Kate would have given Death Duty plenty to think about if she had stood up the last day and fancies her to sneak around and pick up a few pieces.
JW – thinks Davy might be on to something here as Gigginstown are short on options here.
DK – Neon Wolf is the best horse in the race, Death Duty looks slow. If Bunk Off Early goes well in the Supreme then Bacardys would have a great chance.
KOR – Bacardys if Death Duty or Finian’s Oscar don’t show up here.

RSA;
DK – likes Coney Island for this and feels the form of the Drinmore could be the most solid with a view to Cheltenham having run on Good to Yielding ground. Doesn’t think Disko is good enough. Can’t have Alpha Des Obeaux as he bleeds.
DR – defended his ride behind Acapella Bourgois saying he couldn’t go any faster but doesn’t think the AB is good enough to win an RSA. Might Bite is nicely bred. He would be very surprised if Whisper ran or won. A proper 3 miler is require for this and he thinks an outsider will win. Mentioned Martello Tower @25/1 as his idea of the winner. Thinks it is harder than the 4 miler because of the classier opposition. Debunked the ‘myth’ about the RSA breaking horses – it might break bad horses but the good ones go on and win Gold Cups.
M.C. - last 19 winners of the Feltham have failed to win an RSA?
JOB – Might Bite needs to run half a stone better than his current mark to win.
JW – Might Bite by Scorpion and is a bit of a character – would like to see him go eye to eye with something in a tight finish and see what happens. Backed Alpha Des Obeaux and remarked that Mouse loves him.
KOR – Edwulf is like a drunk leaving a nightclub (like this one on a Saturday night)!

Champion Chase;
DK – just enjoy Douvan, can see Special Tiara chasing him home.
JOB – any decent opposition will reroute to the Ryanair.
JW – Douvan best horse he has ever seen and would run him in the Champion Hurdle on Tuesday and the Champion Chase on Wednesday since the CC would be an easy procession of a race.
KOR – Cop to f**k on!
DR – after running in a Champion Hurdle he would be walking around for a week with his head between his legs in recovery mode. He implored Johnny Ward for the sake of his journalistic career not to write such an article!

Bumper;
JOB – Carter McKay impressive at Naas but it was a farce of a race, just a sprint to the line. He rode him prior to being sold to current owners and he liked him but not overly so. Thinks the ground will be too quick for West Coast Time. Thinks there will be a big priced winner.
DK – WPM used to have 5 or 6 in this but now might have two at most. Thinks it is a very hard race on young horses.
JW – Gigginstown no interest in the bumper but they paid 300k for a horse in Samcro that had no form and that is the way the game has gone.
*this led to a debate about whether the Potts, Gigginstown and JP throwing vast quantities of money around for horses is a good thing or not?

JLT;
DR – Yorkhill far superior to the others but his keenness could make him vulnerable. Likes Disko as he jumps and travels well. Also likes Top Notch and reminded everybody that the English are going to win plenty of races and we can get too fixated on the Irish runners.
DK – between the top two in the market (Yorkhill and Top Notch).

Ryanair;
DR – Empire Of Dirt will run here (claims to know this for a fact), needs a career best and probably some juice in the ground but would stay 5 miles in his opinion. Uxizandre one of his bets of the whole week – ticks every box with the headgear on. UDS too ground dependant.
JW – Empire Of Dirt has a good chance.
JOB – fancies Uxizandre and feels he will be ridden more positively with the reapplication of blinkers.
DK – Un De Sceaux is his banker of the week. Empire Of Dirt only a handicapper.
KOR – Irish Gold Cup wasn’t an end to end gallop and he feels Empire Of Dirt would have his stamina stretched in a Gold Cup and is better suited to here. Feels he has proven himself to be better than a handicapper.

Stayers;
DR – Unowhatimeanharry is the ideal stayers horse – keeps plenty to himself. Great training performance from his handlers throughout his career.
JOB – JP McManus has a strong hand in this.
JW – disappointed with Jezki the last day and felt he only beat a 2 miler in Hurricane Fly when he won over 3 miles previously.
DK – Unowhatimeanharry is a banker, may drift out a little on the day.
KOR – sees no chinks in the favourite.

Triumph;
DR – Mega Fortune doesn’t need soft ground but is more effective on it. Likes Landofhopenandglory if the ground comes up quick.
JOB – Mega Fortune has a great chance and the Irish form looks strong.
JW – although Housesofparliament is out of the festival, he feels that Merie Devie’s defeat of that horse represents good form and she ran a fast time.
DK – hard to assess the English form and feels Geraghty is the man to ask. Too much flip flopping in the Irish form. Thought Dinaria Des Obeaux and Merie Devie were the value and the ones to take out of the Spring Hurdle. Merie Devie not at her best the last day and thinks Ruby will ride her.
KOR – thinks Dinaria Des Obeaux and Mega Fortune will fight out the finish and that the latter will eat up the Cheltenham hill and is one of his bets of the festival (to which Davy responded that he needed his head examined!). Feels Elliott was forced into the application of cheek pieces earlier than he would have wanted because he is chasing the trainers title (previously would have waited until the festival to apply them).

Albert Bartlett;
DK – feels the Peregrine Run/Wholestone form is not strong enough, also questioned the strength of the Death Duty form. Feels West Approach 3rd in the Cleeve best form on the table suggesting he has improved the most and makes him the most likely winner.
JOB – thinks Bacardys was ridden last time with this distance in mind and likes him.
DR – likes West Approach and Wholestone (good hardy type) but thinks Bacardys will win. Monalee also has a good shout. Despite PTP’ers having a good profile for this race, Death Duty goes Neptune.
KOR – likes Constantine Bay form and feels he has a good each way shout.
JW – more derision directed at Ward for suggesting Penhill as a likely winner having had his form franked by Call The Taxie (a horse ridden to victory by Davy Russell who was the first to scoff at the suggestion that Penhill was good enough stating that he can’t jump and he bleeds).

Gold Cup;
DR – Don Poli very slow and doesn’t like going any quicker. He is a neat jumper but if he winged his fences he might have a better chance to win. Doesn’t think he is suited to a National as his jumping is too slow. Was all about Thistlecrack at the start of the year thinking his jumping would improve but actually felt it dis-improved – he didn’t think he would win it but felt it was a shame he wouldn’t run all the same. Native River in the same mould as Denman and the likes of those win Gold Cups. Sizing John has huge ability if he stays (more like a Kauto Star)
JOB – Don Poli good price for a place but doesn’t think he can win.
JW – Native River solid but might get outpaced at the finish. Told two stories about Alan Potts – when Sizing Europe won the Champion Chase Potts remarked, “it’s not the f**king Gold Cup now is it” and also that Potts apparently offered 3 million pounds for Thistlecrack – the point being Potts is obsessed with winning the Gold Cup.
DK – likes Djakadam in a less than vintage edition and thinks he should have won the Lexus. Feels Cue Card might have a chance with a different jockey and can’t forgive Brennan for last year.
KOR – Djakadam wasn’t made full use of in the Lexus so would be his idea of the winner, Cue Card has no chance as an 11yo, Outlander not good enough and Sizing John won’t stay (this point got a reaction from the crowd).

Questions from the audience;
I asked Davy Russell how Presenting Percy compared to Mall Dini and he said Mall Dini was a better jumper but that he has been very disappointed with Mall Dini this year and he may not even go to Cheltenham as he felt he may not handle the hustle and bustle of a big field handicap.

Just to note I found all this a bit hard to believe because Mall Dini has jumped beautifully this year for the most part and has been running over too short a distance and ground softer than ideal.

He didn’t show any enthusiasm for Presenting Percy (which is another good sign imo!) and overall there was little or no insight into the handicaps from the panel. Davy didn’t even know what horses he was riding in the handicaps apparently! He half-heartedly mentioned Diamond King but warned he was on a slightly higher mark than last year.

Charity Bets;
DR – Uxizandre Ryanair / Unowhatimeanharry Stayers
JOB - Uxizandre Ryanair (mentioned Ivanovich Gorbatov would have an each way chance in the County Hurdle)
JW – Penhill AB / Movewiththetimes Supreme
DK – Coney Island RSA
KOR – Mega Fortune Triumph / Cause Of Causes X Country
M.C. Denis Kirwan – Bunk Off Early Supreme

[DeadParrot]

3

SPOILER

Cheltenham preview night Larry Tomkins Sports Bar Cork

Panel : Enda Bolger (EB), Nina Carberry (NC) , Tony Mullins (TM)

Supreme Novices
TM -> Has a friend that does sectionals and said Bunk Off Early’s sectionals were ‘amazing’. Melon too inexperienced. Moon Racer the reliable one
NC -> Very negative about Melons jumping
EB -> Very sweet on Moon Racer (Mentions course form not for the only time tonight) will get up the hill

Arkle
All the panel select Altior, Tony Mullins gives an each-way shout for Charbel then goes off on a tangent defending Nico De Boinville as a jockey re ride he gave Coneygree…

Champion Hurdle
EB -> Yanworth a funny horse to get a handle on but has been laid out for this race
NC -> Likes Petit Mouchoir but sees the value at 14/1 about Tombstone
TM -> Absolutely says Limini wins!! equates her to Faugheen!!!! BUT says she’s at her best fresh and is not sure that the race against Apples Jade isn’t too close to the festival. Says Yanworth won’t beat the ambulance home, ran like a piebald the last day !!!

Mares Hurdle
First all NO mention of Limini!!
NC -> Willie wins bu Vroum Vroum not at 100% after last race
TM -> Backed up what Nina said re last time out saying Vroom Vroom and a bad blood count. Says at her age Apples Jade has had too many hard races this season
EB - > Vroom Vroom Mag

NH Chase
NC -> If she could ride one in it - Alpha Des Obeaux. Agenieinabottle a leary lazy type but has been aimed at this
TM -> Mouse always has then ready
EB -> Edwulf the pick of JP’s and Derek O’Connor rides

Neptune
Not much was discussed about the Neptune, Tony Mullins liked Bacardys and then went off on a tangent about how people were doubting how successful Willie would be this year, he reckoned he will have a ‘savage year’

Champion Chase
Douvan has to fall twice to lose this. Not a whole lot of time spent.

Cross Country
EB -> Cantlow was 18lbs worse off last time out against the French horse meets on level weights. Gave Cause Of Causes as a dark horse, Mark Walsh has the choice (Cantlow/Auvergnat) Adrian Heskin rides the other and Derek O’Connor definitely rides Colour Squadron
NC -> Cantlow a worthy fave but very competitive, gave Usuel Smurfer as a big price that won’t be far away.
TM -> Enda wins

Bumper
EB -> Connections very sweet on Western Ryder
TM -> Says Carter McKay is Willie’s best but questioned its tail-carriage last time out.
NC -> Mentioned a horse of Jonjo’s that won at Chepstow last time out… have to google that one
It was mentioned that of all the horses Willie lost to Gigginstown, Blow By Blow was the one he would miss most

JLT
TM -> Yorkhill the bet of the meeting
NC -> likes Disko but not good enough here
EB -> Yorkhill loves going left, Ruby hugs the rail the whole way round

Ryanair
At this point Un De Sceaux’s owner came up to the stage. Waxed lyrical about UDS but!!!! said he will NOT WIN IF THE GROUND IS GOOD!!!! Also said forecast is for rain for the next 10 days there so was optimistic BUT when he said about the ground you could hear a pin drop!!
NC -> Said that that owners run Empire Of Dirt here could be a tip in itself
TM -> Dismissed bounce factor with Uxizandre said its been trained with race in mind

Stayers
All of the panel keen on Uknowhatimeanharry
TM-> commented that he reckons Nichols Canyon is gone at the game,
NC -> Not much of an Irish threat in this
EB -> Said Barry Geraghty holds UNWIMH in highest regard

Mares Novice
Panel split here
NC -> No faults in Airlie Beach and can’t see it beaten
TM -> Lets Dance has the proven class and Airlie Beach is just an improver so far
EB -> Would love to see Airlie Beach win as a shout out to Kilbeggan
TM -> Never underestimate the strength of a second season novice

Triumph
TM -> No fxxxing interest!! can never work it out !! move on
NC -> Master Blueness impressed her last time out.
EB -> Loves Defi as a course and distance winner and said Barry Geraghty was very sweet
Take this with a pinch a salt but someone on the panel said that Charles Byrnes had said that Defi Du seuil was a BANKER!!

Albert Barlett
Got the panels interest big time as a great race!!
TM -> Hopes Death Duty wins, also gave Penhill as a horse that bled at Killarney and then came out next time and won by half the track
NC -> Thinks the world of Death Duty
EB -> Knows Death Duty well. Best of Irish staying novices, ticks all the boxes

Gold Cup
NC -> An open Gold Cup but very keen on Native River but it has had a hard season
TM -> Native River a bit to find on ratings!! Couldn’t believe what Paddy Brennan did with Cue Card last year, to have him switched off most of the way around and then pull him out and set him alight 3 from home!! No for Outlander. Don Poli to finish 3rd, 4th or 5th
EB -> Likes Native River but really fancies Djakadam

Fox hunters
EB -> On The Fringe like a pet to him, is there to be shot at but is spot on after the blow-out at Leopardstown last time out.
Panel -> Huge negative for Wonderful Charm on account of its wind problem…
End gave Staker Wallace as a hunter to watch for the future..

Handicap Bets
EB -> Whatever Jamie Codd rides in the Kim Muir
NC -> Southfield Royale

NAPS
TM -> Yorkhill
NC -> Death Duty
EB -> Death Duty

Value Bet
TM -> Bunk Off Early
EB -> Whatever Jamie Codd rides in the Kim Muir

Charity Bets
Came after questions and all the panel agreed how quick Cheltenham dries out so pay special attention to going and weather
TM -> Yorkhill
NC -> Death Duty
EB -> Djakadam

It was amazing tonight how every time Enda Bolger spoke the bar quietened down!! Was very humble re getting last years Cross Country after Any Currency was DQ’ed, said they were beaten by the better horse

[DeadParrot]

4

SPOILER

Lismore Cheltenham Preview Night

Panel :
Tony McCoy (TM)
Davy Russell (DR)
David Casey (DC)
Alan King (AK)
Noel Cummins (NC)
Henry De Bromhead (HD)
Carl Llewellyn (CL)

Night started off with Richard Phillips doing MC, as Mike Cattermole & Alan king were late arriving “Got stuck in UK”, Phillips was very good at MC & got all the panel messing & slagging each other.
McCoy hinted at numerous times during the night that he will be riding at the festival, to which DR replied “He’ll definitely do 11st 12Lb”, David Casey said McCoy could ride there alright, but he won’t get colours big enough to fit him !

Tuesday
Supreme Novice :
TM – Defi Du Seuil & Charlie Parcs will defo not run here. He likes Moon Racer, if he gets there he is the one he would be backing, as he has the form. He has beaten Ballyandy. And he also has course form.
DR – Melon being fav for this is an absolute joke. He is a lovely looking horse, but being fav after 1 run, this shouldn’t be. He thinks Finian’s Oscar should run in this. Said he has no ride in this yet, then said “We have nothing going in this have we Henry” (to De Bromhead). HD replied, he has Capital Force entered in this but the reason Davy has no ride in this is because he made a balls on him the last day ! Said he will ask David Mullins & if he can’t then Davy has a chance !!!!
DC – Melon is very good, they really like him, but he beat little in Leopardstown the last day. He has heard that they are struggling to get Moon Racer fit & ready for the day & thinks he will miss the festival. Bunk Off Early is better Value @ 8/1.
NC – Melon won’t be fav on the day, said his owners are very lucky & will be 5/1 on the day. Ballyandy will go off fav & he would be his choice.
HD – He runs Capital Force, needs good ground & a good gallop. EW chance. Ballyandy is his choice as winner.
CL – Melon is inexperienced. Ballyandy very solid.

Arkle :
TM – Altior is a good thing.
DR – Yorkhill should run here. He rides Ordinary World, will ride him for a place. Altior is the best in it without Yorkhill.
DC – Yorkhill will go to the JLT. Royal Caviar will run in this, but will be running for a place. The hill might not suit him.
HD – Will run 3 in it. Identity Thief will not run. Ordinary World would probably be his pick of his 3, but they are very hard to choose between as they are all rated pretty much the same. Altior is the winner.
CL – Altior wins if he jumps. Ordinary World EW.

Champion Hurdle :
TM – Yanworth is best on official rating, but his jumping isn’t the best at times. My Tent Or Yours very good EW bet. Will defo beat The New One.
DR – Impressed by Yanworth & Buveur Dair. Brain Power not good enough for this. Petit Mouchoir very solid.
DC – They have until 8th March to supplement Limini & will wait until then to make decision. VVM is a lot better now than when she returned from Doncaster, and coming back to herself.
AK – King & Cattermole arrived just at this point. Cattermole said that on the 6hr journey acros King was constantly on about Yanworth to him. King said he is really looking forward to him running.
NC – VVM is the form horse.
HD – He is completely focused on Petit Mouchoir at the moment & he is really happy with him.
CL – Yanworth isn’t a great jumper & Buveur Dair is his choice to win this.

Wednesday
Neptune Hurdle :
TM – Neon Wolf impressed him a lot. Said Harry Fry is constantly on about this horse & thinks he is the best he has had. Bacardys EW.
DR – Death duty would defo win this, but they gonna go for AB with him. Thinks Lets Dance is being overlooked for this & has a chance.
AK – Big Neon Wolf fan. Thinks Finian’s Oscar is one to take on. Thinks his form is not good enough. He runs Messire Des Obeaux here and has an EW chance.
After discussing the race a bit and just before moving on, King then says that he is just after remembering something he had heard earlier & Neon Wolf was entered on Friday & Might skip Cheltenham in favour of Aintree. Said the owners don’t care too much for Cheltenham. Said he had a horse a few yrs ago for the same owners & he had to beg them to run it at Cheltenham.
NC – Impressed with how Bacardys won the last day. Patrick gave him a great ride. Rode him patiently.
HD – He has Monalee entered and he really likes him. Said he will avoid Death Duty wherever he runs. If DD turns up here Monalee will go for the AB. Russell also ploughed in with his liking for Monalee. Most likely run here as he is surprised they are leaning towards the AB for Death Duty as he thinks he would defo win this as he has the class.

RSA Chase :
TM – Coney Island has impressed him a lot. Said he had an issue LTO & prob the reason he was beaten. Said he is better again now. Said if he owned American, he would run him in the 4 miler. Likes Mite Bite also.
DR – Will ride Whisper providing they avoid Yorkhill by running here. Said whisper likes a bit of juice in the ground. But he isn’t overly ground dependent. Likes the course. Said Mite Bite is by Scorpion, Cattermole asked what does that mean – Davy made the puking sound, like he won’t like the hill !
DC – Was asked what do they think of this race. He said, not a lot. They will run Bellshill, but he has been to Cheltenham twice and hasn’t run his best. Thinks the track might not suit him. Said he likes Whisper if he runs.
HD – Likes Bellshill. Said they ground will be in his favour. Said the soft ground he has been running on doesn’t suit him. Said trip is ideal & doesn’t think it is the track that is the issue. Said the 2 times he has run at Cheltenham the trip was too short & that’s why he didn’t show his best. Has Herons Heights entered in this, but most likely will run him in a handicap, depending on the mark he gets (Seems to fancy him for a handicap IMO).
CL – Thinks the top 2 are very short. Likes Whisper & also thinks Disko is very tough & consistent.


Champion Chase :
TM – Douvan is exceptional & jumps like a champion chaser should. Low & fast over fences.
DR – No Contest. Absolutely loves Douvan. Thinks he is exceptional.
NC – Asked “Who rides Douvan” gave a grin, suggesting Ruby will knock him !
AK – Thinks there is a disconnection between Ruby & Douvan. Said if you look at his last run, he came out of Ruby’s hands a few times.
HD – Special Tiara will go a good lick, prob set it up for Douvan. But he is good value to be 2nd to him.

Bumper :
TM – Daphne Du Clos is best of British. But is only a 4YO.
DC – Will only run 3 in it. Ballyward will not run. Patrick will ride Carter Makay. Start of the yr they thought their bumper horses weren’t too good, but as they all started to run they realised they aren’t too bad after all.

Thursday
JLT Novice Chase :
TM – Cannot see Top Notch beating Yorkhill. Yorkhill very impressive last yr to win in Aintree. Never seen a horse to pull so hard all the way through a race and still win the way he did.
DR – Yorkhill
DC – Yorkhill is very good. Trip suits. He is top quality, has huge ability & will take a lot of beating.
AK – Top Notch fan & surprised if he is not in shake-up.
NC – Yorkhill the one to beat. Disko has a chance if he runs.
HD – Yorkhill hard to beat.
CL – Sam Twiston-Davis is a poor judge and he thinks Politologue is a good thing. Said to completely rule this lad out.

Ryanair Chase :
TM – Would love to ride Uxizandre in this. Said the last time he rode him, the speed he shown was unreal. Thinks UDS is a slow horse & wouldn’t have him.
DR – Could ride Zabana in this race. He is entered in 2 at festival (Casey said, make sure you face him the right way this year!). Uxizandre is the best value bet of the meeting.
DC – UDS likes a bit of cut in the ground, said a bit of juice in the ground will help him. Said he is in good form & the trip is ideal for him.
AK – Uxizandre is very well in himself at the moment. He needs to go left handed. He exceeded his expectations the way he ran the last day & he worked very well on Saturday last.
NC – Likes Empire of Dirt & is a big UDS fan.
HD – Will run Sub Lieutenant in this. Didn’t say anything on him, just that he runs. There was a big cheer suggesting this has a big chance – Gigginstown in Ryanair !
CL – Joses Hill is a big girls blouse. Likes both UDS & Uxizandre. Uxi is good value.

World Hurdle :
TM – Unowhatimeanharry impressed LTO. Jezki definitely runs in this & great EW bet.
DR – Unowhatimeanharry is the bet of the meeting. Cole Harden EW.
DC – Nichols Canyon will probably wait for Punchestown. VVM could run in this but more than likely run in the mares. Thinks Jezki is the one.
AK – Cole Harden EW
NC – Shaneshill
CL – Cole Harden EW – Has had a wind op & the good ground will suit him. Unowhatimeanharry is no value. Jezki great value.



Friday
Triumph Hurdle :
TM – Defi Du Seuil is a very good jumper & fears Mega Fortune the most.
DR – Rides Mega Fortune. He stays the distance, soft ground would be better but not very ground dependent.
DC – Defi will be hard to beat. Irish form isn’t strong. They are all beating each other. Meri Devie ran well the last day & is the best of Mullins’.
AK – Master Blueyes has a huge chance. He wants it dry. Very sweet on him. Said he was always a Triumph horse & don’t mind Tom ? He knows **** all & was never gonna run in Fred Winter. Has been working unreal well the last month.

Albert Bartlett Hurdle :
TM – West Approach, his run the last day was very good form. Death Duty should go for the Neptune, thinks trip will catch him out.
DR – West Approach, Wholestone lacks the class for this race.
NC – Agusta Kate. Monalee was very good LTO in Clonmel.
HD – Monalee has a great chance if he runs in this – Depends on where Death Duty goes ( Avoiding him).
CL – Wholestone lacks the class for this race. He has had a problem since his last run.

Gold Cup :
TM – More Of That is ok after his fall the LTO. He is back running to his best form from 2 yrs ago lately. Has an ew chance. Outlander is improving all the time & is his choice. Thinks Djakadam is a big player too and his prep this yr is a lot better.
DR – Worries about Cue Card. Sizing John is an unknown quantity & dunno about the trip. Djakadam has been freshened up & great decision not to go to Leopardstown with him & prep this yr is spot on. Don Poli is slow & he gave him a lot to do last yr in it. Outlander probably just gets the nod in front of Djak.
DC – Djakadam has a huge chance this yr. Doensn’t like Cue Card. Thinks Native River hasn’t improved enough. He won off 150 & ran off 150 again & only beat Raz De Maree by 1.5l. Thinks More Of That will run a big race.
NC – Cue Card won’t stay the trip. Emptied out very quickly in Ireland last yr. He is on the Djakadam bandwagon, but it is a poor renewal.
AK – Native River rock solid, but Cue Card coule be the class act in the field. Fancies CC.
HD – Champagne West is in great order. Will love a test of stamina. Won well off 154 in Thyestes. Djakadam won Thyestes off 145 and has run well in GC, so thinks he has a great chance.
CL – Bristol De Mai has no chance unless it rains. Fancies Djakadam.


Handicap Tips :
TM – Beauvreuil & Bloody Mary
DR – Diamond King (Brown & Advisory) – Good Ground
DC – The Storyteller (Martin Pipe)
AK – Dino Velvet (Fred Winter) & Label Des Obeaux (Ultima)
NC – Ballyandy (Coral) – King & Cattermole started to skit at this.
HD – The Storyteller (Martin Pipe)
CL – Foxtail Hill (Close Brothers Novice Handicap – Tue)

Charity Tips :
There were stipulations here. McCoy had to pick JP handicap horse. Russell had to pick something he was riding. Casey had to pick a Mullins horse & De Bromhead had to pick one of his own.
TM – Said €50 ew on Jezki – World hurdle. Paddy Power representative said it had to be a handicap horse. McCoy said he didn’t know what was goin in handicaps & after a few minutes he stood up & took out money out of his own pocket & said he will have €100ew of his own money with William Hill on Jezki.
DR – Had his €50 ew on Ordinary World in Arkle. Said he will creep around on him & finish 3rd @ 50/1.
DC – Had his €50 ew on Agusta Kate in Albert Bartlett.
AK – Had €50 win on Master Blueyes – Triumph
NC – A Genie In Abottle - €50 win – 4 miler
HD - €50ew – Petit Mouchoir – Champ Hurdle
CL - €50 win Defi Du Seuil - Triumph

[NoRiverRequired]

The amount of shite that gets talked at these preview nights is outrageous.There a bit of craic most of the time but best thing you could do is ignore them completely.

[careca]

The amount of shite that gets talked at these preview nights is outrageous.There a bit of craic most of the time but best thing you could do is ignore them completely.

depends who is at them. Tony Mullins was very good at one I was at and Willie gave a very good 40/1 shot (ew - was placed) at another. But ya, you have to go through a load of shite to get that small bit of info alright.

[DeadParrot]

Let's Dance into 11/8 for the Mares Novices....
regret not getting more on now


Write up in the indo to stoke the flames higher too

http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/cheltenham/stablestaff-bonus-holds-key-to-lets-dance-festival-plans-35497835.html

[angle_grinder]

Let's Dance into 11/8 for the Mares Novices....
regret not getting more on now


Write up in the indo to stoke the flames higher too
http://www.independent.ie/sport/hors...-35497835.html

I was listening to a Final Furlong podcast and Kevin Blake reckons the vibe about Airlie Beach is not very positive so looks like she will get shorter as well.

Appreciate that summary on the preview nights.

[rounders123]

The amount of shite that gets talked at these preview nights is outrageous.There a bit of craic most of the time but best thing you could do is ignore them completely.

Not for any type of organised cheltenham talk either, sport isnt for discussing its just for punting. A bet on a sporting event speaks more than words for me. ''I think such and such has a good chance''...... ''Fcuk you show me your betting docket!''

[NoRiverRequired]

Not for any type of organised cheltenham talk either, sport isnt for discussing its just for punting. A bet on a sporting event speaks more than words for me. ''I think such and such has a good chance''...... ''Fcuk you show me your betting docket!''

ya get some skin in the game fuckers

[Dice75]

Is there no racing on ITV/TV3 today

Nvm i see its on ITV1 - no much use for those of us with Virgin.

[DeadParrot]

Two bets for today
Le Mercurey @4pm in kelso
and stowaway forever in the last in navan

[horatio1]

Got a tip for a hedgehopper from a mate who was doing some work for a friend of the trainer.

Late date last race Kelso around 3/1. Also gave him knocknamona at Newcastle Tuesday.

[rounders123]

Willie Mullins has a snazzy new jacket.

[TonyCascarino]

Do any of the horse aficionados here have any information/calculated guesses as to which race Flintham is most likely to line up for next week?

[careca]

got a text there to say Cue Card out. Haven't seen anything about it though. Anyone hear anything ?

[careca]

Got a tip for a hedgehopper from a mate who was doing some work for a friend of the trainer.

Late date last race Kelso around 3/1. Also gave him knocknamona at Newcastle Tuesday.

good shout, was 2s earlier this morning. Cheers

got a text there to say Cue Card out. Haven't seen anything about it though. Anyone hear anything ?

Obv this was a load of bollix.

[DeadParrot]

Got a tip for a hedgehopper from a mate who was doing some work for a friend of the trainer.

Late date last race Kelso around 3/1. Also gave him knocknamona at Newcastle Tuesday.

knocknamona winner

[horatio1]

knocknamona winner

Yeah got a bit of 9/2 last night but was hard to have confidence after Saturday. He must have done the work half right��.

[Pat Mustard]

Paul Townend trixie 1st, 2nd & 5th race Thurles today for me.

[rounders123]

[Pat Mustard]

Cristys call the last in Dundalk. Big chance.

[kaiser soze]

Cristys call the last in Dundalk. Big chance.

Got that myself good luck us

[DeadParrot]

Song of love and purple party also of interest to me tonight.

[Johnny Tightlips]

Modern tutor 7.30 dundalk 25/1. ive been told it will come close.

Sent from my EVA-L09 using Tapatalk

[DeadParrot]

Have the marten Julian Cheltenham book to go through tonight

90 pages!!

[horatio1]

Decent card at Wolverhampton today.

Steel train EW 14:05

Keystroke win 15:15

[Raoul Duke III]

Keystroke win 15:15

Cat kicked all over the house there I'd imagine!

vul

[rounders123]

Just watching a few old youtube Cheltenham videos to get the juices flowing, think i spotted a young Rich Ricci 30 seconds in!?. 1998 Champion Hurdle

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8dKQW7KP8go

[NoRiverRequired]

Getting a bit giddy now, week off work, morning flight to Birmingham tomorrow and a nice leisurely day in the pub to acclimatise

[horatio1]

Was the 3:45 at Naas today the first time that the same owner has owned all the runners in a race ? A grade 3 into the bargain.

[jazzyfish]

Day 1 Cheltenham
Race 1 race I like to just watch but like ballyandy and have backed ciloas emery for ew value

Race2 --------

Race 3 singlefarmpayment ,noble endeavour

Race4 footpad

Race5-----

Race 6 agenie IN a bottle

[DeadParrot]

Moon Racer pulling out the supreme has upset several of my applecarts.
I'll have to sit down later and see how my NRNB doubles and specials are affected.


So I've done
Supreme Bunk off early
Arkle Altior
Ultima Un Temps Pour Tout
Champion Yanworth
Mares Limini
National Hunt Edwulf

10ew for the house deposit

[SatNav]

Just done mine
A yankee
Champers on ice
Bunk off early ( mother got a tip for that)
Brain power
Single farm payment.

Getting full face lift if they all win

[DeadParrot]

Offers...

https://m.oddschecker.com/t/cheltenham-festival/free-bets

[Jibzzzz]

Any decent sign up offers or existing specail for Cheltenham?

Have 365, PP, Boyles, BetBright.

[poprock]

Any decent sign up offers or existing specail for Cheltenham?

Have 365, PP, Boyles, BetBright.

[Jibzzzz]

My apologies deadly parrot. Ty.

[TonyCascarino]

Why are PP 1/5 all the races whilst Boyles have 1/4 odds where you'd expect them?

[Strewelpeter]

Anyone care to speculate what price Labaik trades at if he gets over the first with the field?

[DeadParrot]

Anyone care to speculate what price Labaik trades at if he gets over the first with the field?

you aren't the first I've heard say that

[mdoug]

I'll be having a flutter on him and high bridge e/w anyway

[Pat Mustard]

Can't sleep...too excited..flying over in the morning and can't wait..pretty much all of ante post single bets fell by the way side this year. But still have a nice little bet on singlefarmpayment @ 20's. Need Melon to win to get any of my accum and luckys off the ground (if Djakadam loses as well I might as well give them up) GL me

[Jibzzzz]

Divin Bere, Yanworth, Bunk off early and Neon Wolf going to be my festival lucky 15 this year.

[Dice75]

Anyone care to speculate what price Labaik trades at if he gets over the first with the field?

Saw PP were going 16s with cash back if it refuses to start.

[Strewelpeter]

He won't be winning anyway .

I know you can't ignore what's happened since but that Navan win stands out for me.

[Silver-Tiger]

Is Melon going to go off shorter or bigger than the current 11/4.

Also. Why no Vroum Vroum love in here?

[Pat Mustard]

Is Melon going to go off shorter or bigger than the current 11/4.

Also. Why no Vroum Vroum love in here?

I'm going to back her. Absolutely love her. But Ruby switching off her is huge. Apples Jade will be better for the run in Punchestown and will appreciate the better ground. Limini will probably win but couldn't have her at the current price.

[Raoul Duke III]

Backed Townend for top jock @ 40s

[Strewelpeter]

I expect him to win the CH so that will be a nice bonus for your bet

Wickla Brave, Rock on the moor ew double IMO

[Strewelpeter]

Even a 1c accum here busts the daily limit

1 Cheltenham 14th Mar - 13:30 Backing: Labaik @ SP
2 Cheltenham 14th Mar - 14:50 Backing: The Druids Nephew @ SP
3 Cheltenham 14th Mar - 15:30 Backing: Wicklow Brave @ SP
4 Cheltenham 14th Mar - 16:10 Backing: Rock On The Moor @ SP
5 Cheltenham 14th Mar - 16:50 Backing: Martello Tower @ SP
6 Cheltenham 14th Mar - 17:30 Backing: Bun Doran @ SP

[angle_grinder]

Backed Townend for top jock @ 40s

Can you get each way terms anywhere? I could only find win only in this market so bought him in the top jockey market on sporting index.

[Mellor]

BALLYANDY Single

ALTIOR, YANWORTH, VROUM VROUM MAG in my daily treble

Currently scouting a longer shot in race 6 or 7

[novak]

come on the melon!

Sent from my F5321 using Tapatalk

[DeadParrot]

Has

SPOILER

Let's Dance been declared for the Neptune?

SPOILER

No

yeah have seen declarations....goodbye sweet bet