my so called edge or bust!

[amberleaf]

Im with the lads its like a way of hiding that your losing. Id follow it if the record was kept normal.

not sure about the hiding part,as all bets are here to see before the event takes place.also the amount placed is there as well as some of the thinking behind it.most of the 10/11s or the 5/6s have come in,but all the bigger priced ones have fallen by the way side so far,in other words any few quid i've made,i'm reinvesting back in the bigger priced offers.what i would say to anyone looking in is to read the whole thrend and also keep an eye on the bet sizeing,its a simple stratergy.it may or may not work,only one way to find out!and thanks for the responce

[Emmet]

not sure about the hiding part,as all bets are here to see before the event takes place.also the amount placed is there as well as some of the thinking behind it.most of the 10/11s or the 5/6s have come in,but all the bigger priced ones have fallen by the way side so far,in other words any few quid i've made,i'm reinvesting back in the bigger priced offers.what i would say to anyone looking in is to read the whole thrend and also keep an eye on the bet sizeing,its a simple stratergy.it may or may not work,only one way to find out!and thanks for the responce

Just have something like

Bank - 100points
At risk - .5points
Potential profit - 1 point

with your posts imo

[amberleaf]

Just have something like

Bank - 100points
At risk - .5points
Potential profit - 1 point

with your posts imo

ok perhaps something like that might work,i'll have a think about it a sort it out over the next few days,thanks lad

[amberleaf]

bet 15,france to reach the final,max bet 5 pts win@2/1

[TommyGunne]

bet 15,france to reach the final,max bet 5 pts win@2/1

If you think thats good, Laddies have it at 11/4. Always shop around. Its one of the key skills of punting well. 2/1 is literally the worst price available.

Not meaning to be harsh, but I would be delighted to take the opposite side of this bet. Do try and quantify things, it helps you know exactly what edge you think you have as well, and I think this one clearly has negative edge.

[Emmet]

there is absolutely no value in that bet imo. I reckon you'd actually get better value on match bets leading to the final (essentially the exact same bet with a bit more work) than 2/1.

[amberleaf]

If you think thats good, Laddies have it at 11/4. Always shop around. Its one of the key skills of punting well. 2/1 is literally the worst price available.

Not meaning to be harsh, but I would be delighted to take the opposite side of this bet. Do try and quantify things, it helps you know exactly what edge you think you have as well, and I think this one clearly has negative edge.

thanks for the reply tommy,some very good points there,i didnt put up the thinking behind this bet with hope it might provoke a responce thus a meaningful debate!all replys are very welcome,but i would hope that people would at least read the whole trend,give the thing a chance,try and see where i'm comeing from,and then make a judgement.

agree 100% with the laddies price,of course thats just basic stuff and was a mistake on my part.as of now i'm just useing 2 books(boyles.powers)but hopefully as time goes on i'll expand into others,including the exchanges,very good call tho!

as the title says my SO CALLED EDGE or bust,i think i have a edge,i'm not sure,maybe i just remember the winning days,with the loseing days tucked away in the back of my head somewhere, but i'm laying it all out here for everyone to see,if i fall flat on my face,so be it,time will tell!

i already have a max bet on this which is 5% of the bank,and theres a fair chance i'll make a balls out of this one,so wont be risking any more,thanks for the offer tho!
dont worry about being harsh'i'm a big boy,and at this lark long nuff and keep the replys comeing,i'll do the thinking behind this one on the reply below,all the best and keep the replys comeing

[amberleaf]

there is absolutely no value in that bet imo. I reckon you'd actually get better value on match bets leading to the final (essentially the exact same bet with a bit more work) than 2/1.

hows it going lad,tbh this bet has nothing to do with france being in the final,but has everything to do with,france beating england in the 1/4 finals,the way i see it if things go to plan,i will be able to lay off before or during the semi final,thus giveing myself a little freeroll with a chance of winning 5 pts,or a max bet.england imo are a poor nuff with their discipline,and in my view might just cost them.the french on the other hand are in my view not killing themselfs by any means for far,and imo have no intrest in winning v nz,a 5 pt win @ 2/1 gives me a 10 point profit margin,which i hopefully can lay off at some point @ evenish,it may work, it may not,
keep the replys comeing lad!

looks like my 2nd max bet is foooooked, 45 pts to beat

[thechamp87]

agree 100% with the laddies price,of course thats just basic stuff and was a mistake on my part.as of now i'm just useing 2 books(boyles.powers)but hopefully as time goes on i'll expand into others,including the exchanges,very good call tho!

Jesus this is tilting. You can't claim to be proficient and have an edge at sports betting and then say you only work off 2 books. Anyone who takes sports betting seriously at all has to have access to the best price available at all times. I'd be shocked if you weren't a pretty big lifetime $ loser at sports betting after reading your evident lack of very basic fundamentals of sports betting.

[Arazi]

Jesus this is tilting. You can't claim to be proficient and have an edge at sports betting and then say you only work off 2 books. Anyone who takes sports betting seriously at all has to have access to the best price available at all times. I'd be shocked if you weren't a pretty big lifetime $ loser at sports betting after reading your evident lack of very basic fundamentals of sports betting.

We're worse to be reading it.

[CheckRaise]

You are taking the lowest prices available.

You are reporting your results as the percentage of bets won instead of ROI.

You are not giving any insight into your bets and what you have mentioned is a poor way to evaluate a bet.

You say you are going to have a few hundred bets in this thread over the next year and then you will do up a P&L/ROI report then because you have so few bets now it is not worth your while to report them in any meaningful way, it doesn't matter if you have 10 bets or 1000, its the only way to report them.


Are you a profitable gambler over your last 100 bets? Last 500 bets?


what is your most profitable market?


what sports do you bet on?


what resources do you use to select your bets?


how do you price up your bets?


why do you only use two bookies?


Good Luck.

[Angry-Ball]

[amberleaf]

bet 16,japan v tonga total match points under 51.5 @5/6 (b)

dont think there will be a massive amount of trys in this one with the team the tongo lads have named,with the forwards on show,on the jap side they went well v france but with all their scores come from just one player james arlidge would think he would be the target man for the tongons

2 point win under 51.5 points

[JackBurton]

Seriously mate are u having a laugh. The lads on here have tried in the most subtle way to to tell u to cop on on but ur obviously not listening and to be honest this tread is starting to piss me off seriously.

Start keeping a proper record, serioiusly its not that hard. U started with €1000 bank, fair enough. If ur bet is 5% win on something at say evens then ur return bank is either €950 or €1050 and go from there.


Start keeping a proper record, serioiusly its not that hard. U started with €1000 bank, fair enough. If ur bet is 5% win on something at say evens then ur return bank is either €950 or €1050 and go from there.

I don't mean to sound harsh but is that too hard to understand.


And when someone gives u a meaningful piece of advice ur answer seems to always be something like ' sound boy but read my earlier trends' well i've read ur earlier posts and to be honest u don't make a blind bit of sense.

I don't mean to be nasty since u started the thread yourself but you've tilted me into writing this.

[amberleaf]

Seriously mate are u having a laugh. The lads on here have tried in the most subtle way to to tell u to cop on on but ur obviously not listening and to be honest this tread is starting to piss me off seriously.

Start keeping a proper record, serioiusly its not that hard. U started with €1000 bank, fair enough. If ur bet is 5% win on something at say evens then ur return bank is either €950 or €1050 and go from there.


Start keeping a proper record, serioiusly its not that hard. U started with €1000 bank, fair enough. If ur bet is 5% win on something at say evens then ur return bank is either €950 or €1050 and go from there.

I don't mean to sound harsh but is that too hard to understand.


And when someone gives u a meaningful piece of advice ur answer seems to always be something like ' sound boy but read my earlier trends' well i've read ur earlier posts and to be honest u don't make a blind bit of sense.

I don't mean to be nasty since u started the thread yourself but you've tilted me into writing this.

ok lad,you what your dead right, think the best thing is to start again,and keep a proper record,that is very good advice thank you

the first line in the first post has the words i think i have a edge over the book,now i'm going to try to prove it (to myself),no-one else,i dont know if i have or not,guess by keeping a proper log/record then i'll know

not sure about "the trends" thing is about

one last thing,if this bothers,annoys anyone,than apologies as it was not my intention
its my choice to post here,its your choice to read,please make the right choice that suits you best,thanks again for the advice

[JackBurton]

Apologies Amberleaf, was out last night on a staff night out and wrote that piss drunk when i got in this morning. I don't even remember writing it tbh. I was out of line with my wording and I over exaggerated how i was feeling. There was no need for it and for that I apologise. Anyway good luck with your quest and apologies again

[KK82]

*thread