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Old 30-08-19, 10:58   #21
Mellor
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Originally Posted by Murdrum View Post
In simplistic terms if we assume for arguments that the villains best sizing will be pot size on the flop then all we need is 33% equity to make a call break even, while only needing 25% in the case of half pot.

For example if we give the villain what I would call a pretty nutted range on this board A2s+, A5o+, Ks6s-KsJs, 66, 44 the hero still comes out with 34.2% equity so I can't understand how someone can advocate a c/f unless as I said that the bet sizing is quite unusual ie > 100% pot
Im guessing thatís our all-in equity. Not our turn equity. Big difference. Verses 2 streets of betting we need 40% (I think) for a double PSB.
From the discription, villain doesnít sound like heíd be inclined to bluff a checked flop.

Maybe Iím misjudging the player current players in the Fitz tourneys. But in a past life Iíd have tried to avoid multistreet bluffs agaist players who love to call down. Itís much easier to wait and get paid.
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Old 30-08-19, 11:18   #22
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Originally Posted by Mellor View Post
Im guessing thatís our all-in equity. Not our turn equity. Big difference. Verses 2 streets of betting we need 40% (I think) for a double PSB.
What's the calculation behind the 40%?
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Old 31-08-19, 00:46   #23
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Originally Posted by tiago View Post
Used to play a lot when I was younger, probably only break even player at best, very rarely play these days but played a 70 quid Freezeout on the Fitz the other day, always struggle with these spots OOP.

Blinds 500/1000 Ante 1000

I've 60k ish

CO, button and sb Limp.

I've Kd Qs in BB and make it 5k, co calls and others fold. CO is an old guy who doesn't really know what he's doing, raises with big hands, limps with mediocre and only really pays attention to what he has, doesn't think about opponents hand. We've roughly around the same stack.

Pot 13k
FLOP A 6 4 all spades, I've the Q of Spades, I bet 7000, CO calls.

Pot 27k
Turn As 6s 4s 10h I bet 15k, CO calls.

River
As 6s 4s 10h 2d

Hero?

Apologies if this is in the wrong format or not info given. Haven't posted for years.

Cheers.
versus fish i would probably x pre here instead of making it 5bb, possibly raising our kqs combos instead. i can get behind a x/c on the flop instead of making it 7bb,pretty big bet imo,if we decide to bet i think we can make it like 4bb. as played im bombing the river and hoping not to be snapped off by a stubborn ole guy with a9hh
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Old 31-08-19, 00:53   #24
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Originally Posted by Hectorjelly View Post
That's if villain is nice enough to promise not to bet for the rest of the hand.

The hand is clearly a bet on the flop - you have a huge range advantage, good equity and lowish showdown value. Everything points towards a bet being profitable as long as you follow through on later streets. Check call is ok but much tougher to play optimally. HOWEVER, that said these tournaments are not like real poker. I played hundreds of them over the years I worked there. The players are so likely to gift you their chips easily the best players should avoid all marginal spots, whatever you do don't run large bluffs against any but the tightest of the regs. They all overcall to a ridiculous degree, on every street.
these villians are not thinking about ranges,they are only looking at their own hand and whats on the board. i really dont know why you think it is clearly a bet on the flop when you also said not to run bluffs v these guys and they overcall if this is the case should we not only be betting our value hands.?
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Old 31-08-19, 06:01   #25
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Originally Posted by Murdrum View Post
What's the calculation behind the 40%?
Rough number based on calling multiple streets. Could be higher. If we going to look at our showdown equity, you need to consider cost to get there.

For example, you need 33% vrs a PSB. But 44% verses back to back PSBs.
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Old 31-08-19, 06:19   #26
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Originally Posted by Mellor View Post
Rough number based on calling multiple streets. Could be higher. If we going to look at our showdown equity, you need to consider cost to get there.

For example, you need 33% vrs a PSB. But 44% verses back to back PSBs.
That's fair enough but I think it's very presumptuous to expect a limper to barrel multiple pot size bets irrespective of range not to mention the fact that the range I gave is extremely nutted. Even if we extended that range to include Ks-9x to Ks-Qx then our hot/cold equity jumps to 36.2% without including any hands we dominate significantly. I expect we get to low 40% with few added combos.

Although I agree that assigning a more "balanced" range to villains like this is impossible, we can't really assume they're as nutted as the range I gave let alone that they're likely to 2 PSBs.

As I said, pre flop imo it's a clear check, post flop I'm close between bet & check but c/f seems poor to me unless as mentioned the bet sizing is non-standard.
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Old 31-08-19, 07:12   #27
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Originally Posted by Murdrum View Post
That's fair enough but I think it's very presumptuous to expect a limper to barrel multiple pot size bets irrespective of range.....
multiple PSBs would be excessive, but thatís why I dropped the required equity back to 40 from 44/45.

I wouldnít expect villain to pot it with many of those hands in the range.
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