thoughts please

[sixtwo]

hand from JP masters at weekend

blinds 400-800 100 ante am playing 110k
villian is only player with a decent stack at tabel circa 70k
short stack at table moves in utg for 4200
villian calls MP
SB calls and i complete from big with 8 9 of hearts

flop 6 hearts 7 hearts and 8 spades

sb bets 2200 into dry pot i raise to 8200 and villian shoves???

whats my line here???

[MisterMonkey]

wager your car keys

[Carl_Morrissey]

Looks like two overs and a heart draw. Could be a set or possibly overpair. Whatever I'm sticking the loot in 100% of the time with this hand.

[TheImprover]

hand from JP masters at weekend

blinds 400-800 100 ante am playing 110k
villian is only player with a decent stack at tabel circa 70k
short stack at table moves in utg for 4200
villian calls MP
SB calls and i complete from big with 8 9 of hearts

flop 6 hearts 7 hearts and 8 spades

sb bets 2200 into dry pot i raise to 8200 and villian shoves???

whats my line here???

With villians shove its like hes after flopping a set or the nuts, but would he be there with 9,10, maybe on a flush draw, but i'd be thinking more on the lines of a set, so i'd be leaning more to a fold, u have a big stack so i dont think theres need to put it at risk at this stage of the tourny imo

[Mellor]

Really easy call, what hands do you fear?, top pair and an open ended straight flush draw - pretty massive amount of equity

You nearly a 2/1 fav over a bigger FD or an over pair.
A set is almost a flip. And vrs the flopped is the only bad situation and you still win a decent amount of the time

[sligoboi]

Looks like two overs and a heart draw. Could be a set or possibly overpair. Whatever I'm sticking the loot in 100% of the time with this hand.

You forgot 2 pair...

Edit: He's never bluffing at the pot much less 3 bet shoving light but given that even if we brick we still have 50 bbs in a tourney which has drawn plenty of plaudits for it's good structure.

[sixtwo]

does this hand play any differently if i only have 50k for instance???

[Carl_Morrissey]

You forgot 2 pair...

We have too many outs to need reads

[Pat Mustard]

personally can never fold these.... sounds like an overpair here.... .but then again i didnt pick my nickname just for the craic... you still have plenty behind you and a fold is defo not wrong either

[Caf]

I must be a nit in these spots, folding pre all day long.

[Mellor]

does this hand play any differently if i only have 50k for instance???

Makes it an easier call tbh, the pot is bigger reletive to your stack, you are shorter.
The fact that toy have 110k isn't really a factor, the effective stack here is 70k.
Some people might take the view that there is no need to risk almost 2/3rds of your stack with over 100bbs but that's flawed. If the spot is +EV (and this is, imo) then its a call

9T is the only hand in his rabge that has you in bad shape, and you still win 33% of he time. Which is -EV in itself, but overall, vrs everything, 2 pair, sets higher FD, you are good to call here.

[Bubbleking]

I must be a nit in these spots, folding pre all day long.

Bingo

never folding flop though

[sligoboi]

I must be a nit in these spots, folding pre all day long.

If it folds around I fold. If the sb folds I probably fold depending on caller's stack. Given our stack, the fact that we have a position on a fellow big stack and we have a hand that plays well multi way I like the call.

[thechamp87]

Edit: disregard all that, didn't read the hand properly at all.

[sixtwo]

Bingo

never folding flop though

we chatted about this hand over a pint, well i had a pint you had a baileys :O

[nicnicnic]

baileys ?? wtf

[Bubbleking]

we chatted about this hand over a pint, well i had a pint you had a baileys :O

lols I have no recollection of this conversation - does my drunken line differ to my sober line?

[Bubbleking]

baileys ??

tis the nuts

[sixtwo]

100% differrent line altogether, good laugh at desk

[sixtwo]

If it folds around I fold. If the sb folds I probably fold depending on caller's stack. Given our stack, the fact that we have a position on a fellow big stack and we have a hand that plays well multi way I like the call.

thats why i called pre it plays really well in these spots.....

how and ever in this case i pretty much snap called to be shown nut straight with no redraw, brick brick and he ships the loot

its just a hand that annoyed me thats all

[Caf]

If it folds around I fold. If the sb folds I probably fold depending on caller's stack. Given our stack, the fact that we have a position on a fellow big stack and we have a hand that plays well multi way I like the call.

Do we have position on a big stack? I don't think so. We're BB, villain is MP.

[Bubbleking]

100% differrent line altogether, good laugh at desk

yeah I remember talking to you just not this hand. lol at me obv I was going with the min raise pre and fold the flop. Kinda illustrates why I dont touch any alcohol until I bust

[Carl_Morrissey]

thats why i called pre it plays really well in these spots.....

how and ever in this case i pretty much snap called to be shown nut straight with no redraw, brick brick and he ships the loot

its just a hand that annoyed me thats all

Easy fold

[Mellor]

If it folds around I fold. If the sb folds I probably fold depending on caller's stack. Given our stack, the fact that we have a position on a fellow big stack and we have a hand that plays well multi way I like the call.

big stack has position on you, so fold pre for me

thats why i called pre it plays really well in these spots.....

how and ever in this case i pretty much snap called to be shown nut straight with no redraw, brick brick and he ships the loot

its just a hand that annoyed me thats all

I think we all knew that's what happened - unlucky this time
Completely right to call though



edit: What was BKs drunken line

[sixtwo]

big stack has position on you, so fold pre for me


I think we all knew that's what happened - unlucky this time
Completely right to call though



edit: What was BKs drunken line

his drunk line was pretty much trousers around the ankles snap calling
having said that at time there was a lot of drink in systems as it was around four am
all i wanted was bed but dice wouldnt allow it, terrible man
good to meet you guys that night

[sligoboi]

Oh I've misread this altogether. Thought villain was sb..wow so villain cold 3bets? Think post I call because of what I said earlier, we have a very playable stack if we lose in an event with a good structure, but pre I fold. lol at villain's call pre though

[Carl_Morrissey]

The more I think about this hand the more I like a 3 bet pre. We are OOP against the only player who can do damage to our stack and we assume will only play back with a massive hand. Both the flat calls in front of us look pretty weak. We have a really nice stack size for this too. Making it like c.11.5k. Thoughts anyone?

[sligoboi]

The more I think about this hand the more I like a 3 bet pre. We are OOP against the only player who can do damage to our stack and we assume will only play back with a massive hand. Both the flat calls in front of us look pretty weak. We have a really nice stack size for this too. Making it like c.11.5k. Thoughts anyone?

I don't mind it with A10/ KQ/ 66+ type hands as we are in good shape against the jammer's range and we get a good price if they all fold but not with the type of hand we have.

[Carl_Morrissey]

I don't mind it with A10/ KQ/ 66+ type hands as we are in good shape against the jammer's range and we get a good price if they all fold but not with the type of hand we have.

I'd rather do it with our holding as a bluff as opposed to the hands mentioned. I think its a really nice spot given the dead money and dynamic of the hand.

[sligoboi]

I'd rather do it with our holding as a bluff as opposed to the hands mentioned. I think its a really nice spot given the dead money and dynamic of the hand.

You realise the original raiser is AI yeah? When we do it with those hands we often end up HU with the jammer with 40-60% equity in the hand despite investing 3,400 to win 14,300.

Obv you have to balance that with the rare times that the original flatter jams on us and we have to fold our hand after putting in 11-13k

[shano_88]

I dont play many tournaments but I cant see why you would fold pre.

[Carl_Morrissey]

You realise the original raiser is AI yeah? When we do it with those hands we often end up HU with the jammer with 40-60% equity in the hand despite investing 3,400 to win 14,300.

Obv you have to balance that with the rare times that the original flatter jams on us and we have to fold our hand after putting in 11-13k

I'd say we're more often 40-60 with our hand than hands like A10 or KQ which are easily in bad shape tbh.

Yeah I know he is AI. I think the stack size of the SB is important too but all things considered I think the original flatter (villain) will be folding enough to justify the 3 bet.

[sligoboi]

I'd say we're more often 40-60 with our hand than hands like A10 or KQ which are easily in bad shape tbh.

Yeah I know he is AI. I think the stack size of the SB is important too but all things considered I think the original flatter (villain) will be folding enough to justify the 3 bet.

He's shoved for just over 5bbs. If he wakes up with a big ace or pair which dominates our hand he's been extremely lucky. Even if he has, by raising with these hands, assuming the 2 flatters fold, we are manipulating our pot odds to make it profitable.

This is my belief but am open to midnitekowby/doke/someone else who's more adept at the math side of the game than I to tell me I'm wrong

[markc]

If I read the info right there is approx 94k in the pot after Villain ships ( Assuming the SB folds before it gets to you you). You have approx 13k in the pot already and need another 57k to call approx so you are getting 1.6:1 pot odds on the call.

Not sure what I'd do tbh. Very situation dependent and how I would feel at the table. If I was very confident of my position at the table I have plenty of chips behind to fold and pick a better spot. I also have approx 40k behind if I call and lose so I'm not in desperate shape there either. Hard to think the villian is shoving light here I'm obv worried about a set of 7's or 6's. Think two pair is unlikely though possible. Over pair also possible. Made straight also possible. I'm not sure of the math but I'd say you just about have the odds to call and the out's to justify it so it comes down to a tournament management decision I think.

I don't think that just because a call might be slightly +EV you have to call when you are that deep. I think this is a spot where I might be a nit and fold but I think it's a really close decision. I'd also be interested to see what one of the pros might think of this spot...

Think the call pre is fine. Even though u are OOP on a big stack you have a nice hand for it and getting nearly 4/1..

[Mellor]

If I read the info right there is approx 94k in the pot after Villain ships ( Assuming the SB folds before it gets to you you). You have approx 13k in the pot already and need another 57k to call approx so you are getting 1.6:1 pot odds on the call.

That looks about right. Means that 38% is about where we need to be to breakeven

Not sure what I'd do tbh. Very situation dependent and how I would feel at the table. If I was very confident of my position at the table I have plenty of chips behind to fold and pick a better spot. I also have approx 40k behind if I call and lose so I'm not in desperate shape there either.

Looking for a better spot is often cited as the reason for folding but its very bad logic.
Either this spot is a sufficiently good spot or it isn't. If it is we should call.
Calling here doesn't affect the chances of a better spot coming up down the line. Assuming that one comes up, the most +EV thing to do is to take bother spots. We should maximise our stack, not minimise our chances of busting out.

Hard to think the villian is shoving light here I'm obv worried about a set of 7's or 6's. Think two pair is unlikely though possible. Over pair also possible. Made straight also possible. I'm not sure of the math but I'd say you just about have the odds to call and the out's to justify it so it comes down to a tournament management decision I think.

Why are you worried about a set? or two pair? I'd love it if he hand an over pair tbh.
The only hand I am concerned with is a straight. Out of the 3 possible straights, only one is potentially in his hand imo.

What's tournament management?
You have a big stack and are comfortable, but you can't use this as a reason to avoid big pots. If anything, you should feel more comfortable taking them and you can at least ride out some of the variance.

I don't think that just because a call might be slightly +EV you have to call when you are that deep. I think this is a spot where I might be a nit and fold but I think it's a really close decision. I'd also be interested to see what one of the pros might think of this spot...

There are times where its correct to pass a +EV situation in terms of chips as surving is worth more in terms of cashing. But, given the current level, we are too far off the bubble to be worrying about that.
Obviously, I'm not suggesting that its worth taking a tiny edge here. But I expect this to be significantly +EV. In general, the more I am risking (in terms of BBs) I need to be more sure about my advantage in EV.
If we win we'll have over 190k - that's almost 240bbs. We eliminate two players, including the only stack that can hurt us. We'll end up being in a very dominant position.




tl;dr
We mave more than enough against his range. Call. And ship the chiplead