AK/AQ live Irish Open sub sat

[Flushdraw]

Played a game in Blackthorn last night (it's on the boarder so it's a lot of northern players local) and with these 2 spots. Seeing as there's a bit of talk about satellite's lately, i said i'd throw this up.

Down to 6 players, and top 4 players get a £250 ticket into their Irish Open sat on April 1st. Play is generally pretty poor with a mix of fast aggroo players, and passive calling stations.

We get to the final table and i've been playing really tight due to card deadedness and have accumulated chips without really showing a hand preflop although and the last hand i played was where i raised to 3300 blind after 1 serial limper and i get a call from the BB and the limper. Flop is 3 10 10 and the BB shoves, followed by the limper. I look down and semi slowroll them both when i see pocket 3s and hold v 32s and K10 so i'm probably just seen as a luckbox!

Hand 1 , I'm in the BB with AKo and 2nd in chips. Folded to the button (5th in chips) who shoves. He's quite bad and has lost most of chips from calling pre and just folding the flop or turn to barrells. Blinds are 2k/4k and he's down to about 32k now and i've ~90k.

Other stacks are about 100k, 70k, 70k, 25k

I'm snap calling and didn't even think about it, but is it ever a fold?

Hand 2 , History with villain is that i 3bet him twice. Once pre when he opened to 3200 (blinds 400/800) and i made it 8800 and folded. Then another when he opened to 4200 and i made it 10400 and folded. Only other hand was i opened UTG to 2600 (blinds 600/1200) with KJs and he calls from the BB. Flops is 10 5 3r and he c/r my 3800 cbet to 16k. I think for about 5 seconds and shove ~60k and he folds 99. I chose to show the KJ

He's taken to shoving a few hands rather than opening for fear of being 3bet so not sure how that changes his range.

Blinds 3k/6k and i've 60k and 5th in chips. Folded around to the CO and he shoves 65k, i've AQo on the button. Call or fold?

It's obv a satellite so we're all playing for top 4. The player on my direct left is top of the clubs tournament leaderboard so he's good, but not great. The guy on his left is the best player left and both have me well covered. The other 3 are pretty fishy and probably between us for the remaining 2 tickets.

[mickste]

Tbh Tony hand 1 you wouldn't be putting up unless you lost the hand it is a call against a 9 bb shove, you said he's not great so you comfortably crush his range for shoving.

Hand 2, you elect to put up the history of previous hands and I don't get why you showed the kj, this is a big leak. You have been playing long enough to know info is key so are you trying to tilt the guy or show off to others at the table?

I'm not trying to be harsh but it is unnecessary to show your hand so why do it. The hand in question with Aq, I would lean to a fold with your stack and the ability of the other players you described. I much prefer folding then opening when you're in position to do so over the next few hands. Would be interested to hear the sat kings Doke and kowboys thoughts on this hand

[Flushdraw]

Tbh Tony hand 1 you wouldn't be putting up unless you lost the hand it is a call against a 9 bb shove, you said he's not great so you comfortably crush his range for shoving.

Hand 2, you elect to put up the history of previous hands and I don't get why you showed the kj, this is a big leak. You have been playing long enough to know info is key so are you trying to tilt the guy or show off to others at the table?

I'm not trying to be harsh but it is unnecessary to show your hand so why do it. The hand in question with Aq, I would lean to a fold with your stack and the ability of the other players you described. I much prefer folding then opening when you're in position to do so over the next few hands. Would be interested to hear the sat kings Doke and kowboys thoughts on this hand

Hey Mick,

I'm not only putting up hand 1 because i lost. I got it in ahead and lost and it put me in 5th of 6 position from a comfortable 2nd place. If i don't call, i'm still in the driving spot to pick up a ticket, and because i lost the hand, i'm now looking at calling for what's probably a flip at best with AQ to send me bust or double me up. I'm genuinely interested to hear if the AK call can actually be a fold considering it's a satellite so it's not just a bad beat story.

I never ever show hands at the table, but i was quite happy to show this one because i think it's works to my advantage. It's hopefully to stop players tangling with me because i'm just playing a straightforward ABC game, and it did tilt the other guy which is great from mine and others POV.

[Flushdraw]

Bump

[Mellor]

I think it's a bit harsh to say you only put this up because you lost the hand. You're past bad beats hands at this stage.
My initial reaction was to consider folding. There's two tickets below your spot, and two bubble places. Let them fight it out etc. But at the same time, you have to target the shorties to progress it further. The button should be shoving pretty wide. If you win, you lock up a ticket and everyone targets the shortie. Lost and you 5th, but still average enough.
I call here.

Second hand I fold. And hope one of the blinds has a calling hand. Lose that palyer and again, the group attacks the 20k stack.

[Mellor]

Also, I ran them through Nash/ICM.
First hand its says call most pairs and decent aces. It assumes that the button shove about 35-40% of hands.

Second it give TT+, and the same range for the blinds.

[Flushdraw]

Cheers Mellor

I don't think he shoves as wide as that tho. It's the first button i remember him raising. He's open limped K7 and Q9 from the CO/Button. He hasn't been this short tho, but i'd imagine he still has to find a strong hand before he shoves. The 2nd guy definetly has a wider showing range than the first guy as he can actually play the game!

[Mellor]

Yeah, based on the description. I didn't think the first guy shoves optimally. So i'd tighten up the nash range a bit. AQ+ and maybe AJs.
And even though the 2nd guy is shoving very wide. We can't call given the field.
In that hand, had it been folded to you, the push charts said to push any two.

[Flushdraw]

Cheers Mellor

I actually called both which i didn't like looking back on it. The first one looks like a snap call, and it all but locks up a ticket if i win the hand, but it puts me in a position that i genuinely don't like if i lose the hand which is why i asked about it.

Really didn't like my call with the AQ, but again it locks up a ticket if i win it and i think the the villians hand can include a lot of hands that i dominate

[LAPPIN]

fold and fold...

in fact, these are the clearest folds imaginable...

nash is irrelevant here.

the only relevant calculation is what % u are to win the hand versus his range and whether that is better than your % likelihood of winning the tourney given the stacks...

[Mellor]

Nash is irrelevant here.

the only relevant calculation is what % u are to win the hand versus his range and whether that is better than your % likelihood of winning the tourney given the stacks...

Thats the same thing as Nash. Nash just translates it to a +EV range.
I said essentially the same thing in my AK sat thread. Except I used %chance of busting (same thing win + lose = 100%).

But it only applies when you are the smaller stack. The bigger stack does't drop to zero equity so it can sometime still be the right call.

[Lplated]

Hand 1 Stacks 100,90,70,70,32,25 = 324k chips in play, Av. 54k

You're in 2nd, 4 to win ticket - Av. when bubble bursts (324/4) = 81k

Not unlike the other hand we both disagreed on, I think this is a fold. Your hand doesn't matter, his range doesn't matter - its not your job to knock him out or to move the tournament on - as it stands your place is fairly comfortable, the two very short stacks have a lot of work to do and the the two 70k stacks may also have work to do.

Your only task is to maintain your own position and stay in the top four. If either of the low stacks doubles up against the 100k stack, it puts you in chip lead. If either of them double up against the 70k stacks it just reinforces your 2nd position [ ie one goes say 25 to 50, the other goes 70 down to 45].

In these situations the equity you can win is never equal to the equity you can lose. Personally, I wouldn't be making another move of any kind unless I get chipped down to fourth or borderline 5th position. You have a ticket more or less, why risk it? Force the others to do the work, they'll either do it correctly [ie know the sort of ranges they should push or call with, or they won't], but there is no need for you to anything until they have all being forced to do the work and [important bit imo] whatever work they do results in you then being at risk.

Imagine for a minute that you sit out the next three rounds - 6 players at the table thats 18 hands, cost to you is 2k + 4k X 3 = 18k off your 90k. At that point you have 72k [which is less than the 80k average with four left].

BUT - the 72k you will then have less the total number of chips in play [324k - 72k = 252k] still puts you ahead of the average, whether there are still 6 players left [252/5 (i.e. the five others versus your holding) = 50k], or 5 players if one has been knocked out in the meantime [252/4 (i.e the four others versus your holding) = 63k].

Obv the above assumes blinds don't go up in the course of the three rounds which assumption I'm making so the example is clearer.

The point being, that for 18 hands, 3 rounds, you force the others to act because you fold [unless you get a real premium hand obv], and even if after that time, no one is knocked out, or just one is knocked out, you are still ahead of the average remaining, albeit a bit behind the average needed to ensure a ticket.

For those reasons I think its a fold everything bar premium pairs.

[gocall01]

I'm not a maths guru on this and would be interested in the opinion of the Sat Gods too.

My initial feelings on:
Hand 1: high % chance ahead with some dominating positions & worst case a race = CALL.
(still in ok position even if you lose the hand even if you don't like the position)

Hand 2: I am a lot slower to call, preferring to be the aggressor with 10bbs however, the voice in my head is saying "Call, do it now". I think I make a crying fold.
(I believe this is much more a 50/50 and am interested in the other opinions)

After reading the other replies I am still not sure but would still go CALL and FOLD (without crying).

Waiver - my 2 cents may be only worth a cent, in fact I am pretty sure of it.

[mickste]

Good post lplated

[Lplated]

Hand 2
Hope you won't me observing that your history with the villian is mainly irrelevant, for two reasons - first the history relates to hands where he raises you reraise etc..., but by this stage in tournament, where he is on your right and is only shoving his whole stack, then his image of you doesn't matter, your decision is fold or call all in pre flop. It may make some difference in a blind versus blind situation but otherwise not.
Secondly, he is not only shoving against you, he is shoving against two blinds who have both you and villian 'well covered' - whether his motivation is to pick up chips or not to be bluffed again or any combination of those doesn't matter, by his actions he is putting his whole tournament on the line against any of the three of you.

FWIW, I mostly agree with Mickste - I don't think bluffs should ever be shown, without exception - but I do think there is a case for showing strong hands now and then to reinforce the image of being a tight/solid player, and to make it less likely people will bluff againt you, but thats a different topic than this hand.

Your position has obvisiously worsened since hand 1, but I think there are still 6 of you left {?}. Even though you're 5th in chips, the guy who is marginally in 4th still elects to put his tournament on the line and you say he has taken to pushing, so in other words he's not playing correct bubble strategy, at least some of the time. He may have good to strong hands some of the time, but hes still risking his ticket when both you and the real shortie have less chips than him.

The other factor here is that both blinds have you and he 'well covered' - so firstly, one or other of them might have a hand they're willing to call him with, and second they may view the risk of losing 65k of their chips as being worth it to knock the villian out, especially since he has been pushing all in quite a bit.

If you call behind, with your AQ, you force the blinds to have a much stronger hand than they would otherwise need to call the villian, because they will take it that at least one of you has a very strong hand [and more likely you than him], in addition because you and villian are so closely stacked 60k v 65k, its not like that either blind can call and only have to beat one of you to break even [as in if there were a big discrepancy between you and villian].

So, for much different reasons than hand 1, i'm folding all but premium hands here.

Obv, because you're now in 5th, with only 4 tickets, you have work to do. If villian gets called here and loses he's effectively gifting you a ticket, but you can't rely on that, so you are going to have to get busy.

In a situation like this, I would prefer to be pushing/3 betting to calling, every push that gets through, given the blinds, will put you equal or ahead of the villian in 4th, so thats what i'd be looking to do.

[Flushdraw]

At the time, i thought the first hand through and made the call expecting to be in good shape the vast majority of the time. The button had AQ and hit leaving me shortish in chips. It's only after the hand that i really thought it should have been a fold due to the position it put me in which probably clouded my judgement in the 2nd hand. If i fold the AK, i think it's a really easy fold with the AQ but because of the chip position i was in (blinds were due to go up to 2.5k/5k shortly as it's only a 20 min clock) i probably took a really bad risk by getting it in versus what i thought was a wide range. He had 88

Disappointed with both calls because i've played enough poker to have been able to make better judgement on these 2 hands and posting it here confirms that. Cheers lads

[Flushdraw]

^^^ Posted before i read your 2nd post lplated. Cheers for the in depth posts

[Lplated]

^^^ Posted before i read your 2nd post lplated. Cheers for the in depth posts

No problem ... not sure i'd have said 'in depth', the phrase 'long-winded' comes to mind, probably is a shorter way of saying what i'm trying to get across but no matter ...

[newbie2]

I must say - I'm a bit chuffed at myself and how far I've come over the past year. I read the OP and was going to post my thoughts straight away - of which I would advocate a fold both hands. But I elected to read other posts and I was happy to see, that my thinking is pretty much in line with Lplated here. I'm pretty sure that this is the cottect line. UL FD

[LAPPIN]

Thats the same thing as Nash. Nash just translates it to a +EV range.
I said essentially the same thing in my AK sat thread. Except I used %chance of busting (same thing win + lose = 100%).

But it only applies when you are the smaller stack. The bigger stack does't drop to zero equity so it can sometime still be the right call.

hence, "given the stacks" in my original post.

anyhow, i just realised that i misread hand 1. i wrongly assumed 5 players left owing to the bit where the hero puts in the 4 other stacks (not inc the villain) - my bad...

with 6 left, hand 1 looks close and worthy of crunching the numbers:

122k of the 390k in play with 5 left gives us 31.5% of the chips in play which translates as about 94% to lock up a seat.

58k of the 390k in play with 6 left gives us 15% of the chips in play which translates as about 64% to lock up a seat.

the villain could be shoving ATC but lets make it top40%...

AKo is 64% versus the top40 range so...

by calling:
64% of the time, you will end the hand with a 92% shot at locking up the seat and 36% of the time, you will end the hand with a 64% shot of locking up the seat.

64x92=58.9%
36x64=23%
total=81.9%

By folding, you will end the hand with 88k of the 390k in play which translates as 23% of the chips in play and about 81% shot of locking up seat.

so, yes, it is correct to call in the first example as you should increase your chances of winning a seat by about 1%


apologies again for my initial misread