Originally posted by Mellor
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UFC 133
Very tough event to predict, which should mean good prices, and maybe value. I won't be punting heavy though.
Preliminary card (Facebook)
Middleweight bout: Rafael Natal vs. Paul Bradley
I know little about either, but Natal held Jesse Bongfeldt to a draw. No info on Bradley, other than his record is 18-2-0-1, but likely fighting in low standard UK cards. I'd give this one 50/50, and go with the best price, PP have both at 5/6
Featherweight bout: Mike Brown vs. Nam Phan
Brown was the top 145er in the world 2 years ago, 2 wins over Faber, Garcia, then losing to Aldo started his bad run, has since lost 3 more times, including his last two. Nam Phan impressed on TUF, dropping to FW for the finale. He was robbed verses Garcia, so much so that he was paid the win bonus. I think he has the ability to beat an aging Brown (now 35), but he is the underdog. I think Brown wins, but Phan is value at 7/4
Welterweight bout: Johny Hendricks vs. Mike Pierce
It's close but Hendricks takes it for me, he's had the tougher fights (bar fitch)
Catchweight (138lb) bout: Ivan Menjivar vs. Nick Pace
Another close one, a few days ago I would of went for Pace on value, being 7/4, but Ivan has just missed weight, so he'll have a size advantage most likely plus he won't have had the drain from cutting. I'm assuming he pulling out of the cut and forfeited some of his purse in order to keep an advantage
Preliminary card (televised)
Featherweight bout: Chad Mendes vs. Rani Yahya
Undefeated Mendes to walk this. Mendes is somehow 1/4 Irish???
Light Heavyweight bout: Matt Hamill vs. Alexander Gustafsson
I can't stand Hamill, but he is a top wrestler. Alexander was impressive in Sydney, beating the Kiwi Te Huna, but Hamill has top class opponents for a long time, Jon Jones (his win doesn't count though), Jardine, and a loss to Rampage. Another close one, but Hamill is the value at 6/4
Main card
Welterweight bout: Mike Pyle vs. Rory MacDonald
Pyle has the experience, Rory is the rising star. I'm going with Rory, I'd like to see him get the win and get into the top 5 at 170
Middleweight bout: Jorge Rivera vs. Costantinos Philippou
Rivera is a hack. The only reason he is here on the main card is because the UFC fed him to Bisping, and there was an awful lot of shite talk to build up a fight that never was, and then the controversial knee and spit. Originally he was fighting Sakara, who was handing him his ass. But he was pulled and now Philippou is tossed n. I hate to say it, but Rivera is prob fav. Which means he'll stay around. But, I won't cheer for him so i'm taking Phillippou at 6/5 and hoping he wins and Rivera is cut.
Welterweight bout: Brian Ebersole vs. Dennis Hallman
Ebersole is a joker, also on the Sydney card, who beat Lytle with cartwheels and hitting him with his chest. But Lytle was apparently sick at the time. Hallman has an impressive 66 fights, Ebersole has 63. Both are available at 5/6, the obvious choice for me is Hallman
Middleweight bout: Vitor Belfort vs. Yoshihiro Akiyama
Belfort coming off a stunning knockout loss. Sexyami has two losses on the go. But losses to Leben and Bisping, nothing to be ashamed about. He had a concrete chin, and his last three have been fight of the night. Belfort might well get back on fort and get the TKO, but this will be a brawl and Sexyami is huge value at 11/5.
I'm also consider a punt at 10/3 for fight of the night
Light Heavyweight bout: Rashad Evans vs. Tito Ortiz
Evans should win this easy. Tito's win over Bader was a freak upset. But Tito makes a good point in interviews, he hadn't won in his previous 5 matches, but they were top class opponents, 4 out of 5 were champs, or went on to be champs.
i will thinks its Evans though.
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Not a bad set of results, never delighted in taking the underdog for value (which was the case in a lot above), but called 6 out of 9 winner right, my 50/50 went to decision, as did Pace/Menjivar which i was staying away from (had he cut all the way Pace won imo).
good card in all. But WTF at Hallman's shorts???
Ebersole actually got a $70k bonus for beating this guy and gtting him off the screen
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Originally posted by MMA Ace View PostI've been away from here for a while. Is there another MMA thread or is this it?
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Originally posted by CHD View PostGenerally just discussed in Mellors betting log.
http://www.irishpokerboards.com/foru...ad.php?t=14669
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Guest
Guys, Check out Rory Macdonald's upcoming fight against Ellenberger. I'm 98% sure that it's gonna be Rory via TKO.
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Originally posted by BIGMICKG View PostPhil Davis overpriced tonight against Machida available at 4.2, get on it! not saying hell defo win but unreal value at 4.2
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Originally posted by gavind View PostGuys, Check out Rory Macdonald's upcoming fight against Ellenberger. I'm 98% sure that it's gonna be Rory via TKO.
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Originally posted by ghostface View PostJust watched the card, had Machida winning that pretty convincingly. They must have scored the 2 take downs at end of the 1 and 2 highlyLast edited by Hatedajacks; 04-08-13, 17:19.
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Originally posted by Hatedajacks View PostAgree with you but that's why it was a decent price at 4's. Phil can Grind out results with take downs and wrestling. I wouldn't have backed him at 2/1 but I got 7/2 and am not surprised the way match went although Like I said I agree that he should not have won though but saying that Machida didn't look like a 2/7 shot.
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Originally posted by poprock View Postlike hunt tonight and shogun if he done a decent camp (anyone have any info?)
Out of the two fights I would probably back Rua as 75% of his former self should take Te Huna. On your question regards Ruas camp,He looked slightly better than last two fights but still never looks in peak condition which baffles me.
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Originally posted by Ed View PostNothing there this weekend that I'd be comfortable committing any significant amount of money to.
Think both Sanchez and Shields are capable of winning those fights so some manner of small underdog accum may get done.
Pondering a Hendricks, Condit, Shields treble
Sanchez can scrape a W through foolish ly charging forward late.
Hector Lombard is a consultant non proformer. I refuse to bet on him. Shields is also in that group though.
Undercard might bring something though.
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Brad Wheeler 10/11 to beat John Maguire this evening in Cage Warriors is a good bet. Maguires form and appetite has dropped like a stone through water since and evn before UFC dropped him. Hes lost 5 out of 6 in all competitions and his ufc history is keeping his price what it is. Watching fight his last few he seems a pale shadow of what he was at his peak.
Wheeler is on a 4 win streak and is the younger and better fighter. I see wheeler as a 4/9fav in this.
The price is pp and the bet is a 6pm cut off even though the fight wont be until closer to 9.30pm
Its on Setanta Ireland from 9pm and also streaming from 9pm on mma junkie and Daily mailLast edited by rounders123; 15-11-14, 17:18.
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