Hand Analysis - Maths based

[budbundy07]

Hi, Id love if someone could give me some opinons of my analysis of this hand

I just played this hand http://www.pokerhand.org/?5149658 . Utg was a fish opening 54% utg and folding 29% over 270 hands. Villian was 24/25 , 3 bet 10% who had only called once in position over 400 hands, 3% overall.No history I recall

He had never check raised over 2 samples but had raised c bet 3/4.

I was confused at how to work out if I was correct to shove. I assume his range is pockets pairs, never JJ+ and maybe only mid 77-TT. So I worked out the fold equity I needed with the formula EV= [EV(fold)]*x+[EV(call)]*(1-x) and came up with 33.7%, If he has only 4 value hands beating us 99/TT then he only has to be bluffing with 2 out of the 12 of these-77/88 to be breakeven assuming he folds these to a shove. What do you think of this?

I also wanted to know for every extra time he had 77/88 and folded would I profit, any Idea how to work this out?

Thanks

[TommyGunne]

Hmmmmm. I've no problems doing the sums, but I think you have a couple of assumptions very wrong.

Firstly, when it is a huge fish (54% pfr UTG is enormous (or do you mean VPIP perhaps?)) that opens UTG, even though he has called very rarely IP, he should be much more prone to doing it. So I would put a very small weighting on some suited connectors or the likes that have binked a good hand or a good draw here. They are not there very often, but they certainly are a small part of his range.

Secondly, why in god's name are you looking at fold equity here??!!! This is a spot where he fold pretty much never. He has put over 60% of his stack in. Its not like he's folding anything. Why would you think he raises 77/88 here either? That'd be awful. I know you assume he has only 77-TT in his preflop range here, but even so, he's not bluff raising 77-88. He really does have other stuff in his range thats unpaired, and sometimes he will show up with JJ+ here too, but that weighting would depend on a few reads.

Thirdly, you look at a lot of stats, but have no reads? Unless the hands are mined, you really should have a bit more info than the basic numbers. You need to know where you think he leaks the most, where he's best, where he plays aggro, passive, weak, and hopefully even how he thinks. Some gameflow might have an influence too, as would your own image, and the history between you two.

I'd just jam it in as well though if I have an any way aggro image. If I'm a huge nit I might fold.

[budbundy07]

Hey, thanks for taking the time to reply

Just to clarify the fish was raising 54% utg. The hands were mostly mined, Ive no reads on him , dont know how much Ive played with him but I had nothing noted.

With the villians call raise frequency do you think he is going to call my 3b oop w suited connectors? I thought it was hugely unlikely thus I came up with his range being mid pocket pairs.

I very much doubt he has JJ+ because he was 3b 9% IP and the fish was folding 29% to 3 bets, therefore I think its safe to assume he would 3b these hands near 100%

The folding eq calc is probably not fully subtible thats why I said I was confused at how to solve this. I wanted to find out how often he would have to be bluffing with the other parts of his range for it to be profitable to get it in.

If you think he never has 77/88 when doing this then I guess its a fold.

Thanks