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Laying Correct Scores

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    Laying Correct Scores

    Hey all,

    I'm going to start laying correct scores on betfair concentrating mainly on English fixtures to start with. I used to do something like this a year ago using almost all European leagues and some South American ones allowing me to get 2 or 3 bets a day but my finger is definately off the pulse with regard to these so going to start off slowly!

    I'm going to start with a €100 bank, all-in every time and compound up withdrawing some after every 10 or 11 match streak (revising as i go along)

    I will lay scores both pre ko and in play but will not lay the current score in play just because i think another goals coming (been stung by that before!!)

    I have made a spreadsheet which will help me to track my progress and will post a link to it here, if anybody would like a copy for themselves just let me know.
    Edit: I tried to upload to google docs there but it won't allow documents with macro's (I have a macro that checks if a cells colour is red to adjust bank for losing lays) so if anyone knows anywhere else it can be uploaded to let me know.

    I will also be doing something similar with the Under 4.5 goals market starting with a bank of €50.

    So will also use this thread to track progress and hopefully profit! Will be starting this tomorrow so hopefully get off to a good start and don't get stung on my first run!
    Last edited by seklly; 04-02-10, 16:56.

    #2
    If you want a tip, don;t go all in. You'll wreck yourself.

    But lay Spurs 1-0 this weekend if you're looking for a starting point.
    Hey buddy, did ya get that thing I sent ya?

    Comment


      #3
      It's not technically all in, as i will do a few runs if the first one fails.

      First bet Newcastle v Cardiff the best home form team vs 2nd in away form. Think it'll be a tight enough affair so gonna lay the Unquoted at odds of 13.0

      1: Newcastle v Cardiff lay AU @ 13.0

      Comment


        #4
        Bad start for me! May have fallen at the first hurdle!

        Comment


          #5
          Unquoted is everything above 3-3 right? So, you just need Newcastle to park the bus, and hope any further goals are Welsh ones.
          Hey buddy, did ya get that thing I sent ya?

          Comment


            #6
            You should pay a lot more attention to betsizing. You haven't really posted bet amounts, but you make it sound like you are overbetting.

            No matter how profitable you are, or how big your roi is, if you consistently bet more than the optimum, you will go bust in the long run with near certainty. Underbetting is no problem, but betting more that

            Perhaps this would be a good place to start with a new challenge? Its easy enough to calculate optimum size if you think you can identify incorrect prices well. Can be very interesting too.
            Last edited by TommyGunne; 05-02-10, 20:32.
            Foldaramus et foldarabimus

            Comment


              #7
              Originally posted by lee_arama View Post
              Unquoted is everything above 3-3 right? So, you just need Newcastle to park the bus, and hope any further goals are Welsh ones.
              Yes unquoted is everything above 3-3

              Think it was curse of the new thread!

              I work off a €1000 bank but use ~10% of bank for this, laying mainly >10-1 shots and my best run so far has been 42 matches. Obviously the first match has to fail when i post!!

              Will have another go tomorrow, can only get better!!

              Comment


                #8
                I guess your just going to ignore my post, but you will always 100% fail with this strategy if you keep it up.

                Its not a question of how good or bad you are at spotting bad value and laying it, but just maths on overbetting.

                Anyways, you can think it over or whatever, ignore if you want, I couldn't care less if you go busto, just a bit of friendly advice.
                Foldaramus et foldarabimus

                Comment


                  #9
                  don't lay everton 2-0 this weekend anyway is my only tip. come on the toffees
                  Go big or go homeless.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Originally posted by TommyGunne View Post
                    I guess your just going to ignore my post, but you will always 100% fail with this strategy if you keep it up.

                    Its not a question of how good or bad you are at spotting bad value and laying it, but just maths on overbetting.

                    Anyways, you can think it over or whatever, ignore if you want, I couldn't care less if you go busto, just a bit of friendly advice.
                    Thanks for the kind words, didn't realise every post has to be responded to. I think for mainly laying greater than 10-1 shots 10% of bank is a reasonable amount.

                    I have 100% profited from this style of betting in the past and believe i can again, i try not to over analyse or complicate it because at the end of the day it's just gambling and i do it for a bit of fun.

                    Anyway onto bet 2, think city will win this one

                    1: Newcastle v Cardiff lay AU @ 13.0 L (100)
                    2: Hull v Man City 1-1 €13.16 @ 8.6

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Can't see next one being goaless

                      1: Newcastle v Cardiff lay AU @ 13.0 L Bank: -€100
                      2: Hull v Man City 1-1 €13.16 @ 8.6 W Bank: -€87.50
                      3: Tottenham v Aston Villa €10.71 0-0 @ 11.5 ?

                      Comment

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