Football-betting thread

[Wesley Harms]

Back to the diamond with two up should see Pool cane the hammers

[The Situation]

Back to the diamond with two up should see Pool cane the hammers

I'm on West Ham

[6starpool]

Back to the diamond with two up should see Pool cane the hammers

If only it were that simple. I'd love to see a comfortable away victory, but I can't see it being anything other than a very competitive game which hopefully Liverpool will come through with the 3 points.

[Wesley Harms]

The force is strong.

Mignolet is the worst, he's dirt. And Gerrard is finished, every game this season he had been awful

[Wesley Harms]

Ballotelli gonna crack

[hotspur]

Ballotelli gonna crack

How much are you lumping on United tomorrow versus Leicester now that United are world beaters again?

[The Situation]

Really rate this Leicester side , one of the best promoted sides in recent years, think they'll be solid midtable no worries. But the betting lines today are very respectful of their ability, was hoping United would be shorter but looks right imo.

Two bets I really like today, evens about both teams to score in the Everton Palace game, and Roma -1 at 5/6 vs Cagliari.

[poprock]

Really rate this Leicester side , one of the best promoted sides in recent years, think they'll be solid midtable no worries. But the betting lines today are very respectful of their ability, was hoping United would be shorter but looks right imo.

Two bets I really like today, evens about both teams to score in the Everton Palace game, and Roma -1 at 5/6 vs Cagliari.

Good picks today

[conspicuous]

The force is strong.

Mignolet is the worst, he's dirt. And Gerrard is finished, every game this season he had been awful

Agreed, he's being targetted as a weakness now by the opposition

[eamonhonda]

Small punt on the 5s for forest tonight

[The Situation]

Bookies getting Roma the most wrong from any team I've seen this season. Can see them pushing Juve very close for the title. Should be odds on tonight against a very leaky Parma defence, but 11/10 available in places.

[eamonhonda]

Small punt on the 5s for forest tonight

Into 8s, easy money

[eamonhonda]

Did a hull, Newcastle forest brighton acccum also. Gonna be rich

[Percy007]

Small punt on the 5s for forest tonight

Into 8s, easy money

What do you mean by this? Prob obvious but I don't understand.

[eamonhonda]

What do you mean by this? Prob obvious but I don't understand.

Forest were 5/1 earlier today, they drifted as far as 8/1 so I had a punt. 0-0 at the moment.

[Flushdraw]

If anyone has a couple of euro to spare and wants to stick it on a long shot, then here's one to consider.

Mike Frantz to score 2 or more for Freiburg v Leverkusen on Saturday.

Freiburg aren't setting the world alight,but after a great start, Levekusen have started to falter a little (they lost 4-1 to Wolfsburg the weekend before last) so they are prone to conceding a few.

Frantz isn't a prolific goalscorer by any means, but he's playing a more advanced midfield role the last couple of weeks, and he scored 2 goals in 2 first half minutes in Freiburg's 3-3 draw away to Hoffenheim at the weekend. In that game, Darida scored a penalty to put Freiburg 3-2 up but was later sent off, so the penalty taker is up for grabs and Frantz could be a good shout for it too.

It's not a bet to lump on, and it will probably fall on it's arse, but it's a 12/1 shot with Coral and 14/1 with WilliamHill and Betfair, so the 250/1 with Bwin is worth a token bet and will be a nice little sweat imo

[dobby]

If anyone has a couple of euro to spare and wants to stick it on a long shot, then here's one to consider.

Mike Frantz to score 2 or more for Freiburg v Leverkusen on Saturday.

Freiburg aren't setting the world alight,but after a great start, Levekusen have started to falter a little (they lost 4-1 to Wolfsburg the weekend before last) so they are prone to conceding a few.

Frantz isn't a prolific goalscorer by any means, but he's playing a more advanced midfield role the last couple of weeks, and he scored 2 goals in 2 first half minutes in Freiburg's 3-3 draw away to Hoffenheim at the weekend. In that game, Darida scored a penalty to put Freiburg 3-2 up but was later sent off, so the penalty taker is up for grabs and Frantz could be a good shout for it too.

It's not a bet to lump on, and it will probably fall on it's arse, but it's a 12/1 shot with Coral and 14/1 with WilliamHill and Betfair, so the 250/1 with Bwin is worth a token bet and will be a nice little sweat imo

Only 22/1 with bwin now. Best price I can see is 75/1 PP.

[hotspur]

I'm on Arsenal @ 4/5 versus Spurs tomorrow. Pretty good chance it will be a 3 or 4 goal hammering.

[Percy007]

I'm on Arsenal @ 4/5 versus Spurs tomorrow. Pretty good chance it will be a 3 or 4 goal hammering.

Very tempted with Arsenal-1

Any other fancies today?

[The Situation]

I'm with both to score in the Palace Leicester game at 5/6 and Sunderland win at 2/1. Can see this Swansea side plummet down the table, don't really bother with season long bets anymore but they're def the value for relegation currently.

[Percy007]

I'm with both to score in the Palace Leicester game at 5/6 and Sunderland win at 2/1. Can see this Swansea side plummet down the table, don't really bother with season long bets anymore but they're def the value for relegation currently.

Was looking at Sunderland and btts @9/2 but is Bony suspended today?

[Aya14]

Was looking at Sunderland and btts @9/2 but is Bony suspended today?

Served his suspension in the Capitol One Cup afaik he's available.

[Percy007]

Anyone find a price on Hibbert to be booked?

[Percy007]

Found it!!! 6/4 with Skybet, all aboard!!!!

[darwinatemyhamster]

Ballotelli hatrick 40/1. Let's go Mario.

[Wesley Harms]

Found it!!! 6/4 with Skybet, all aboard!!!!

7/4 with powers

[PEACEBROTHER]

If anyone has a couple of euro to spare and wants to stick it on a long shot, then here's one to consider.

Mike Frantz to score 2 or more for Freiburg v Leverkusen on Saturday.

Freiburg aren't setting the world alight,but after a great start, Levekusen have started to falter a little (they lost 4-1 to Wolfsburg the weekend before last) so they are prone to conceding a few.

Frantz isn't a prolific goalscorer by any means, but he's playing a more advanced midfield role the last couple of weeks, and he scored 2 goals in 2 first half minutes in Freiburg's 3-3 draw away to Hoffenheim at the weekend. In that game, Darida scored a penalty to put Freiburg 3-2 up but was later sent off, so the penalty taker is up for grabs and Frantz could be a good shout for it too.

It's not a bet to lump on, and it will probably fall on it's arse, but it's a 12/1 shot with Coral and 14/1 with WilliamHill and Betfair, so the 250/1 with Bwin is worth a token bet and will be a nice little sweat imo

Backed this but no sign of him on team on live scores
Is he on bench ?

[Flushdraw]

Backed this but no sign of him on team on live scores
Is he on bench ?

Yeah, he's not even on the bench ffs. Ah well, no harm done as it will be refunded.

[mdoug]

I'm with both to score in the Palace Leicester game at 5/6 and Sunderland win at 2/1. Can see this Swansea side plummet down the table, don't really bother with season long bets anymore but they're def the value for relegation currently.

lol

[Percy007]

Arsenal just topped off another bad Saturday

[The Situation]

Roma ludicrously big in whatever market you decide to back them in tonight, maintain they're the most underrated side in Europe, my biggest asain handicap play of the season thus far. Gervinho gonna prove the premier league fans how good he actually is tonight.

[eamonhonda]

Are Chelsea good enough for -1 @ 11/5?

[FeetMagic]

Are Chelsea good enough for -1 @ 11/5?

Would prefer to back them to win by exactly 1

[dobby]

City, Barca, Schalke, Chelsea.

[The Situation]

That'll do Roma, not sure if their lack of ambition last 30 mins helped me win or nearly cost me

[eamonhonda]

That'll do Roma, not sure if their lack of ambition last 30 mins helped me win or nearly cost me

Aftertiming imo, should be dealt with.

[The Situation]

Aftertiming imo, should be dealt with.

Posted before the match.

[eamonhonda]

Posted before the match.

Assumed win bet - aftertiming, was just busting balls.

I also didn't read post correctly, carry on

[FeetMagic]

Very impressed by Roma tonight so having a small bet on the 50/1 available on them outright. Also really like the 28/1 about Athletico.

[Percy007]

I know it's not a BIG price but I'm just waiting for the team news and if Immobile starts for Italy he is 8/11 anytime vs Malta tonight. All aboard.


He starts alright, might double him with Mandzukic for Croatia.

[Flushdraw]

There's nothing like a nice early Iceland goal to kill your 'win to nil' 3 team accum that included Netherlands ffs!

[Blip]

Last Man Standing - English Premier

Thoughts on last man standing starting this weekend? Any strat ie using best/ easiest fixture team from start (say Chelsea) or take a slight gamble with a weaker team and hold off until more difficult future fixtures then use your nap.

Or just pick a team....also there's over 50 in it at €10 a skull.

[Flushdraw]

Don't know anything about these teams, but was looking at the game between Waalwijk and Telstar in the Dutch Jupiler League.

Waalwik are bottom of the league with a record of 1-1-7
Their last 6 games record is 0-0-6 F3 A14
They've lost all 4 home games this season F2 A13 in total
You have to go back 12 home matches (2/2/14) to find their last home win. That was during a spell where they only lost once in 10 games. It's all gone wrong since then.

Telstar are 11/20 in the league with a 4-1-4 F15 A15 record
They have only one once away from home this season though, and that was against the team 2nd from bottom. They are on the back of a 4-3 win over 5th place Sparta to put an end to their 3 game winning streak (F7 A0 for those 3 games)

As said, i know nothing about either team, but kinda like the 3/1 on Telstar for a bit of a punt tbh!

[TheJiggaman]

Don't know anything about these teams, but was looking at the game between Waalwijk and Telstar in the Dutch Jupiler League.

Waalwik are bottom of the league with a record of 1-1-7
Their last 6 games record is 0-0-6 F3 A14
They've lost all 4 home games this season F2 A13 in total
You have to go back 12 home matches (2/2/14) to find their last home win. That was during a spell where they only lost once in 10 games. It's all gone wrong since then.

Telstar are 11/20 in the league with a 4-1-4 F15 A15 record
They have only one once away from home this season though, and that was against the team 2nd from bottom. They are on the back of a 4-3 win over 5th place Sparta to put an end to their 3 game winning streak (F7 A0 for those 3 games)

As said, i know nothing about either team, but kinda like the 3/1 on Telstar for a bit of a punt tbh!

Where can this be backed?

[Flushdraw]

Where can this be backed?

Everywhere.

It's 59/20 in places and 29/10 in BetVictor now

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/other/netherlands/eerste-divisie

Edit - It's 2/1 with WH draw no bet

[Flushdraw]

Waste of money ffs! Stupid form guide!

[Blip]

Thoughts on last man standing starting this weekend? Any strat ie using best/ easiest fixture team from start (say Chelsea) or take a slight gamble with a weaker team and hold off until more difficult future fixtures then use your nap.

Or just pick a team....also there's over 50 in it at €10 a skull.

Went with West Ham

[elbows]

Went with West Ham

Are you mad. They may win but west ham have easier fixtures than Burnley away

[Lplated]

Waste of money ffs! Stupid form guide!

Something that might interest you.

I've been working on rating system for football matches, basically a combination of well known systems like Elo, Markov etc... which I've adjusted in different ways to test for best combined methods of prediction. I'm using about 30k matches across top two leagues in 8 countries. Still not a finished product but anyway.

On my 'system' if I can call it that, the match rating would have been -320 [I use categories from -700 to + 700]. If I look at all matches rated -200 to -700, the Away team should win or draw about 70% of the time, BUT, there are two exceptions and one is the category -300 to -325 that your Telstar game fits into. In both those categories the result is reversed, i.e the Home team wins or draws about 70% of the time.

I don't have concrete explanation for it but I think the answer is somewhere in applying the Bill James Pythagorean theorem to Soccer - i.e a formula along the lines of Rsquared/Rsquared + 1 = Winning %. [Where R is the scoring ratio]

His baseball theorem can be adapted for other sports but you need to change the exponent, i.e instead of squaring the scoring ratio you find the exponent that best reduces the error for a particular sport in a particular tournament. When you find the exponent that best fits [think its 2.7 for American football, 14 for basketball etc], it changes your match prediction figures hugely, basically you have to adapt you standard match rating by the probability of the underdog causing an upset. In short, in most sports even the worst teams will win sometimes.

So, the answer to the '-320' problem I think, but I haven't finished my 'system' yet, is going to be that the time most likely for an underdog upset occurs more frequently when the match rating is one of the two unexplainable categories in the overall rankings. Or so I hope ....

[Blip]

Are you mad. They may win but west ham have easier fixtures than Burnley away

WHs next 3 fixtures are
MC at home
Stoke away
AV at home

Wouldn't rate any of those as an easier fixture than today's.
Anyway they did win and with Arsenal drawing that kicks lots out of the comp so a good pick in the end.

[Flushdraw]

Something that might interest you.

I've been working on rating system for football matches, basically a combination of well known systems like Elo, Markov etc... which I've adjusted in different ways to test for best combined methods of prediction. I'm using about 30k matches across top two leagues in 8 countries. Still not a finished product but anyway.

On my 'system' if I can call it that, the match rating would have been -320 [I use categories from -700 to + 700]. If I look at all matches rated -200 to -700, the Away team should win or draw about 70% of the time, BUT, there are two exceptions and one is the category -300 to -325 that your Telstar game fits into. In both those categories the result is reversed, i.e the Home team wins or draws about 70% of the time.

I don't have concrete explanation for it but I think the answer is somewhere in applying the Bill James Pythagorean theorem to Soccer - i.e a formula along the lines of Rsquared/Rsquared + 1 = Winning %. [Where R is the scoring ratio]

His baseball theorem can be adapted for other sports but you need to change the exponent, i.e instead of squaring the scoring ratio you find the exponent that best reduces the error for a particular sport in a particular tournament. When you find the exponent that best fits [think its 2.7 for American football, 14 for basketball etc], it changes your match prediction figures hugely, basically you have to adapt you standard match rating by the probability of the underdog causing an upset. In short, in most sports even the worst teams will win sometimes.

So, the answer to the '-320' problem I think, but I haven't finished my 'system' yet, is going to be that the time most likely for an underdog upset occurs more frequently when the match rating is one of the two unexplainable categories in the overall rankings. Or so I hope ....

How does the game between Videoton and Debrecen in the Hungarian League fit into your system?

Videoton have won all 10 games this season scoring 27 and conceding 3. This will be their 8th home game this season (won other 7 obviously). They're unbeaten in the last 17 league games, winning 14 of them.

Debrecen's record after 10 games is 3-3-4, with their away record reading 0-2-3 F3 A6

Videoton at 20/21 looks tempting, but as usual, it would be a bit of a blind punt by knowing nothing about the teams other than form.

[White Knight]

Videoton at 20/21 looks tempting, but as usual, it would be a bit of a blind punt by knowing nothing about the teams other than form.

After looking at the league table I would have thought Videoton should be a 1/3 shot.
Checking out the last 6 games for each overall and Home/Away I can see why it may be judged a little closer to the current odds but in the figures are 2 easy away wins to lower league oppositions for Debrecen and 1 away loss in Uefa League also.
They would be a team expected to be higher in the league having won 7 of the last 10 league titles as well as being defending champions.
Videoton form in general has been amazing. They did lose their first match in 17 (W16 L1) midweek but they were missing a few players due to international window and it was a league cup match they are topping the table in.


I'll now be having an interest bet in Videoton!

[White Knight]

QPR have played very positively in the 1st 10 mins here. 6/1 looking like value against a Sturridge-less pool.

[Lplated]

How does the game between Videoton and Debrecen in the Hungarian League fit into your system?

Videoton have won all 10 games this season scoring 27 and conceding 3. This will be their 8th home game this season (won other 7 obviously). They're unbeaten in the last 17 league games, winning 14 of them.

Debrecen's record after 10 games is 3-3-4, with their away record reading 0-2-3 F3 A6

Videoton at 20/21 looks tempting, but as usual, it would be a bit of a blind punt by knowing nothing about the teams other than form.

Haven't got round to adding in Hungary yet, and while there are similarities across Leagues in different countries, one of the interesting things [to me anyway] is that there are pointed differences also.

The point I was making earlier about the James theorem may well apply here - if Videoton have won all ten games the % by which they will be due to experience an upset [draw or loss] increases significantly, all the more so with a team that look to have a decent away record.

[Lplated]

How does the game between Videoton and Debrecen in the Hungarian League fit into your system?

Videoton have won all 10 games this season scoring 27 and conceding 3. This will be their 8th home game this season (won other 7 obviously). They're unbeaten in the last 17 league games, winning 14 of them.

Debrecen's record after 10 games is 3-3-4, with their away record reading 0-2-3 F3 A6

Videoton at 20/21 looks tempting, but as usual, it would be a bit of a blind punt by knowing nothing about the teams other than form.

Would add that the basis of Elo [and other systems], and the basis of my 'adjusted' version is not the absolute level of wins/draws/losses, rather a team picks up and loses points for each encounter based on the strength of the oppostion. Stating the obvious but wins against 10 very poor teams [relatively speaking] is worth less than wins against 5 good teams and 5 poor teams etc...

[dobby]

Small fun bet on Di Maria fgs and 4-0 at 100/1. Should probably back 5-5 for the lols too.

[Dice75]

Small fun bet on Di Maria fgs and 4-0 at 100/1. Should probably back 5-5 for the lols too.

Jaysus hopefully not. This is arguably the Back 4 going forward for the next few years with Blind sitting in front. Cleanie please.

[dobby]

Jaysus hopefully not. This is arguably the Back 4 going forward for the next few years with Blind sitting in front. Cleanie please.

I was thinking more of Fergies last game at West Brom. I don't want to see them conceding either. Need to start putting teams like this away.

Anyway, win 4-0. Be a grand richer. Easy game.

[mdoug]

I was thinking more of Fergies last game at West Brom. I don't want to see them conceding either. Need to start putting teams like this away.

Anyway, win 4-0. Be a grand richer. Easy game.

You put a tenner on that forecast at only 100/1... :/

SPOILER

175/1 on the first site I checked so probably 200+ available, for shame!


Have an accum from a few weeks ago relying on this game tonight, united -2 I think is it(possibly -1 but 95% sure it's -2). If it win's I'll treat myself to a trip to america next week

[dobby]

You put a tenner on that forecast at only 100/1... :/

SPOILER

175/1 on the first site I checked so probably 200+ available, for shame!


Have an accum from a few weeks ago relying on this game tonight, united -2 I think is it(possibly -1 but 95% sure it's -2). If it win's I'll treat myself to a trip to america next week

I only have an account with Boyles. Nobody else. Don't gamble much anyway so it's just for a bit of fun. Watching the game on my tod so need some entertainment and hopefully a sweat.