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AQ getting close to bubble, how should it be played?

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    AQ getting close to bubble, how should it be played?

    iPoker - <> NL - Holdem - 7 players
    Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

    MTT Tournament about 20/21 players over 3 tables payments start from 15th, so getting near bubble. I have a good chip stack siting in around the top 5 stacks.

    This is an area that I think is a weakness in my game, but I would like second opinions.

    UTG: 40.36 BB (VPIP: 29.41, PFR: 16.33, 3Bet Preflop: 12.00, Hands: 51)
    Hero (UTG+1): 45 BB
    MP: 54.48 BB
    CO: 14.56 BB
    BTN: 22.03 BB
    SB: 30.24 BB
    BB: 16.42 BB

    7 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

    Pre Flop: (pot: 2.4 BB) Hero has Q:club: A:club:

    UTG raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold

    Flop: (8.4 BB, 2 players) 2:diamond: 6:club: 9:club:
    UTG bets 4.2 BB, Hero calls 4.2 BB

    Turn: (16.79 BB, 2 players) 5:diamond:
    UTG bets 8.4 BB, Hero ?

    [spoil] fold
    UTG wins 25.19 BB
    [/spoil]

    I am not sure how to best play this hand.

    One way I think I should be more agressive and 3 bet PF, or shove the flop with 2 over cards and nut flush draw. Which I think I may not do enough at this stage.

    The other way is more conservative, that I have a good chip stack and do not want to get involved with someone who could bust me out, so calling and seeing flop, with 12 outs call cbet, turn still have 12 outs should I call again, 3bet, shove or fold and keep good stack to pick on others?

    #2
    it's really a simple math question .

    pot on turn=almost 17BB
    bet on the turn=8.4BB
    odds on offer on turn=3:1

    so you need roughly 25% equity to breakeven.
    you have 3 Aces and 3 Queens and 9 clubs as outs =15 so you have roughly 30% equity.
    even if couple of your outs are not clean,you still have odds to call but will be closer then .

    as for shoving flop,while it certainly has some merit, like possibly not getting paid when the clubs come in ,in my opinion most of the value from shoving comes from the added fold equity.however ,i don't feel like you will get many better hands to fold here and most of what u fold out,you are already ahead of.
    also tourney life preservation should play a part here i feel,so close to the money .

    i would play it same way but would call turn i think.

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