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Eglington mid month 5k Gtd

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    Eglington mid month 5k Gtd

    Hand came up last night playing live €150 buy in €5k Gtd in Eglington.

    Blinds 1200/2400 ante 100, 9 handed

    19 left, 4 places paid, stack approx 75K at start of hand, avg stack 31K

    I raise to 5k from hijack with KQhh

    Cut off shoves 31K ( old player, tight)

    Button, short stacked, (also tight) shoves 11k

    Action back on me, 52k in pot, 26k to call, what do you do?
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    #2
    I'd say of the top of my head it's a 0 eV call in tge long run, maybe even a small minus. Considering youare riskiny more than 1/3 of your stack, it's a fold.
    But if you have some table dynamics eg wide steals etc, you can widen the tight villains range to give your call a small plus in the lobg run. I would only do 0 or small plus eV calls vs regs, to avoid being exploited in future in these spots.

    Sorry cabt give u any calculations, im writing from my phone.

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      #3
      Its a fold for me. You describe both players as tight and they are CO and BTN. If it was a button shove with a shorty BB coming along for a gamble then it would be closer. But with SB and BB still to act after the original shove it shows super strength from a tight player imo. And KQ is too marginal, there will be better spots.

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        #4
        Reel off some intense cliche-ridden poker jargon in their general direction. If this gets you some vacant prognathous expressions then it's a Bruce Forsyth call, followed by a victory lap and a round of drinks.

        Comment


          #5
          I folded after a wee bit of tank, the considerations were:

          if I call and win I'm chippy with 17 left...

          If I lose I'm still above avg.

          is my hand dominated by the big shove or the short shove?

          As I said, I tank folded getting exactly 2:1 on the call,

          I would have won the hand V's two pocket pairs rivering a king.

          Ultimately I went out in 6th, my QQ V's KJ sent most of the chips the wrong way, shipped 3 BB from the BB with suited J and didn't get there, the rest as they say is history. . Just left wondering
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            #6
            If what you said is true of the player shoving in the cut-off I think giving him a range of AJ+ and 55s+ seems pretty accurate. Focusing on the side pot first, we have avg .433 equity against the 16 combos of aj,avg .2925 equity against his 12 combos of AQ and AK, etc etc..... .495 equity against his 6 combos of 55s, resulting in overall equity if my calculations are right, roughly 39% equity.

            We are therefore winning the side pot of 40,000 39% of the time.
            39% X 40,000 = 15600
            For our call to break even: 39% X 40,000 + x% X 38,000 = 26,000
            We need to have roughly 27.37% equity in the main pot also, which in my estimation we are getting(Calculating the exact equity in main pot would take far too long). Therefore I'd argue it's a slightly +EV call.

            That being said, it could easily be more profitable to fold and pick less marginal spots and losing QQs vs KJ is just a sick beat that late on.

            Comment


              #7
              Originally posted by Sniffer View Post
              Hand came up last night playing live €150 buy in €5k Gtd in Eglington.

              Blinds 1200/2400 ante 100, 9 handed

              19 left, 4 places paid, stack approx 75K at start of hand, avg stack 31K

              I raise to 5k from hijack with KQhh

              Cut off shoves 31K ( old player, tight)

              Button, short stacked, (also tight) shoves 11k

              Action back on me, 52k in pot, 26k to call, what do you do?
              Originally posted by EVinfiinity View Post
              If what you said is true of the player shoving in the cut-off I think giving him a range of AJ+ and 55s+ seems pretty accurate. Focusing on the side pot first, we have avg .433 equity against the 16 combos of aj,avg .2925 equity against his 12 combos of AQ and AK, etc etc..... .495 equity against his 6 combos of 55s, resulting in overall equity if my calculations are right, roughly 39% equity.

              We are therefore winning the side pot of 40,000 39% of the time.
              39% X 40,000 = 15600
              For our call to break even: 39% X 40,000 + x% X 38,000 = 26,000
              We need to have roughly 27.37% equity in the main pot also, which in my estimation we are getting(Calculating the exact equity in main pot would take far too long). Therefore I'd argue it's a slightly +EV call.

              That being said, it could easily be more profitable to fold and pick less marginal spots and losing QQs vs KJ is just a sick beat that late on.
              I'd go with a fold. You have 2 guys to your left who are tight and you have 30bb in a 15 bb average tournament. Pump it from late position and just build the chips that way seems easier. Getting a 3 way all in with KQ against tight players for a decent chunk of your stack doesn't seem like great logic to me.

              Unlucky with qq
              Redbet at the Dublin Poker Invasion FTW

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by The Aul Switcharoo View Post
                I'd go with a fold. You have 2 guys to your left who are tight and you have 30bb in a 15 bb average tournament. Pump it from late position and just build the chips that way seems easier. Getting a 3 way all in with KQ against tight players for a decent chunk of your stack doesn't seem like great logic to me.

                Unlucky with qq
                Never said he should call, just said long term it's surely a +EV call and I don't see how that's being illogical. But, I agree with you that he could definitely find better spots than this slightly +EV gamble.

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