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    #61
    Originally posted by SICKPUPPY View Post
    Considering our economic woes if you 3 gusy were in charge of all our finances tommorow and had free reign what would you do.?

    Why is the government so afraid to tackle waste and overpaid people in the public sector
    have friends there who take days off to play playstation etc they would enver be able to hold a job where they would have to be productive.

    With these budgets as an uneconomic mind why not get or bring in severe cuts now
    to me its like having gangrine in ones shin and just removing the toes when the leg needs to be chopped from the knee down.

    Will we continue to lose big multinationals to eastern europe and cheaper labour markets like Dell did and seeing as they seem to be our only shining light in a dim economy whats going to happen when this occurs.

    On a scale on 1 -10 how tilted do yee get when policticans say shit like the worst is over we have turned the corner soft landing with property.

    Thanks in advance
    Considering our economic woes if you 3 gusy were in charge of all our finances tommorow and had free reign what would you do.?

    Raoul


    I can't speak for the other 2 (suspect V will be similar to me) but here goes. Note that I am starting from the premise that the system is fucked and only outright radicalism will do.

    PS staffing: bring in 5% rule. Everyone gets ruthlessly graded on performance, bottom 5% get a warning. If they don't achieve the next year, they get sacked. Call this the fear-based approach to productivity.
    PS pay: benchmark all PS pay grades to the average of their Eurozone counterparts. Will realise about 30% savings off the PS pay bill. Anyone doesn't like it, they know where the door is.
    SW spending: no more cash payments for dole, childrens allowance ec. Voucher-based system for everything. Benchmark all SW payments to Eurozone averages (again saving billions).
    Education: guarantee free up to LC. Tertiary students pay their own fees. Student Loan schemes to be implemented.
    Banks: jihad, all-out fucking jihad. Everyone who was making credit decisions during the boom is sacked. Close EBS tomorrow morning. Merge AIB and ILP. Sack half the staff, close half the branches. Order the new AIBLP to be run at breakeven for the next 20 years.
    Property: new policy; "low prices good". Remove all property-based tax reliefs.
    Industry: keep doing what we're doing. Drive down costs and woo foreign firms at all costs. Do whatever it takes, fuck France, fuck the IRS.

    V

    Firstly I wouldn't be bothered at this stage. People get what they deserve imo.

    However for the sake of the thread I guess I'd do stuff like this.....

    Cut costs and encourage entrepreneurship. Shrink government by consolidating quangos and local authorities. Reduce income tax and prsi rates and cut pay to the public sector. Remove any property incentives. Bring in a decent property tax. Scale back social welfare benefits and encourage the unemployed to work in their local communities for some extra tax-free cash.

    Why is the government so afraid to tackle waste and overpaid people in the public sector
    have friends there who take days off to play playstation etc they would enver be able to hold a job where they would have to be productive.

    Raoul

    Because they're politicians. Their job is to get re-elected and that means never, ever offending anyone who might vote for you (remember the fiasco over medical cards for rich OAPs?). Especially in a small country like Ireland. We really need a Monti-like figure here.

    V

    Because those are the people who voted the govt in and that's the system the politicians know and have come up through. You can't get radical change from within.

    With these budgets as an uneconomic mind why not get or bring in severe cuts now
    to me its like having gangrine in ones shin and just removing the toes when the leg needs to be chopped from the knee down.


    Raoul

    Again, politicians.

    V

    +!,000,000,000,000,000

    Will we continue to lose big multinationals to eastern europe and cheaper labour markets like Dell did and seeing as they seem to be our only shining light in a dim economy whats going to happen when this occurs.

    Raoul

    We'll be entirely fucked if and when that happens because there sure as shit is no worthwhile policy in place for indigenous wealth creation.

    V

    When you get to zero the only way is up.

    On a scale on 1 -10 how tilted do yee get when policticans say shit like the worst is over we have turned the corner soft landing with property.

    Raoul

    about 7 now, Used to be 11 when Lenihan and Cowen were saying it.

    V

    Around Sept/October 2008 I was regularly operating at 9-10 on the tilt-o-meter but these days I find it hilarious. You couldn't pick a worse bunch of dangerous idiots to run a country...with the exception of the people before profit alliance perhaps....

    Considering our economic woes if you 3 gusy were in charge of all our finances tommorow and had free reign what would you do.? Why is the government so afraid to tackle waste and overpaid people in the public sector have friends there who take days off to play playstation etc they would enver be able to hold a job where they would have to be productive. With these budgets as an uneconomic mind why not get or bring in severe cuts now to me its like having gangrine in ones shin and just removing the toes when the leg needs to be chopped from the knee down.

    Will we continue to lose big multinationals to eastern europe and cheaper labour markets like Dell did and seeing as they seem to be our only shining light in a dim economy whats going to happen when this occurs. On a scale on 1 -10 how tilted do yee get when policticans say shit like the worst is over we have turned the corner soft landing with property


    Hitch

    I will direct you to Dr Gurdiev on this matter:

    http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/20...er-threat.html

    We should ban anyone from public life who ever uses terms like ‘fat cat’. We need to be incentivising well-educated people to earn high wages, rather than demonising them as some sort of scroungers. This attracts the jobs to the country and results in the taxes to the exchequer.

    Did a quick analysis a few weeks ago and found that Google paid something like €14m in taxes over a tax period, but their workers paid €70m in payroll taxes. Yet Google is a hero while the workers are fat cats. How bad is it that each time these people open the newspaper the discourse is on how they are not doing enough.

    On Croke Park – that clearly needs to be abolished. These universal agreements are always stupid. We need to turn government sectors into service providers who are paid for the services they actually give, and workers wages in these departments based on that. E.g. a hospital might get a standard amount per operation rather than a yearly standard grant. Wages would be linked to the efficiency of department they work in, and departments would be set to be small enough that workers could feel they have an ability to determine the efficiency of their department.

    And, yes, multinational companies like Dell will always be coming and going. People need to get used to this idea and invest in life-long learning.
    Official Head Marshall of Waterford Gay Pride Festival 2015

    Comment


      #62
      Originally posted by 5starpool View Post
      I almost never play poker drunk
      lifeban surely appropriate?
      "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

      Comment


        #63
        Originally posted by Angry-Ball View Post
        iam probably faced with unemployment in the new year.
        should i try to get another job, or should i knock up the wife anther 3-4 times and add that lot to the 3 kids i allready have and get ye poor old working saps to pay for my mortgage, holidays, food, childerns schooling, etc,
        etc,?
        V

        Short term knocking up the wife is probably the best financial option but in the long term you are going to be cut off and left twisting in the wind. Unless you are comfortable with child labour then it's all good.

        My central point is that over the long term a period on the dole or claiming benefits will result in one's skills going rusty and missing out on the most productive and lucrative period of your working life so therefore you'd really need to weigh up short term financial neutrality versus the long term financial scarring on your earnings capacity.

        Also the social welfare benefits will be cut in the long run so it's definitely not going to be a long term option for anyone imo.

        Hitch

        Hmm 4 kids equals €560 extra per month. You’d be hard put to turn a profit on that.

        There are other advantages to kids.

        A good book out this year called ‘Selfish Reasons to Have Kids’ suggests we spend way too much time on kids when they will usually turn out fine anyway. Review here: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...295724864.html So, it would probably be okay to sit on the couch scratching your balls and swilling beer while they run around educating themselves and earning you a glorious €560 a month. If you ditch the wife after she is done with the child-bearing you also get the bonus single-parent allowance.

        Longer-term, the downside is that studies suggest that your kid’s willingness to look after you in your old age is highly dependent on you having inheritance to leave them, and that aforesaid couch ball-scratching is probably going to reduce your chances of having an inheritance. Can’t immediately find any of the research papers that found this though, but its quite well-established.
        Last edited by Icarus152; 15-12-11, 10:05. Reason: additional info added
        Official Head Marshall of Waterford Gay Pride Festival 2015

        Comment


          #64
          Originally posted by Icarus152 View Post
          Short term knocking up the wife is probably the best financial option .
          trust me, once the consultant fee invoices start appearing, you will soon alter your views on this one!

          do give my regards to Mrs V
          "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

          Comment


            #65
            Originally posted by RichieM View Post
            What is the likely fallout for us with the UK not signing up to the new treaty for us?
            Is their non inclusion a big deal or on the whole are we still getting what we need?

            Why wont the ECB print more euro's for quant easing as the crisis is now effecting most of Europe in a real way now?

            With so few projects now going ahead how has supply and demand not reduced the cost of building large capital projects that we can afford to build stuff again? Is it a poor tender process, a lack of reality on behalf of the contractors who still maintain the same boom margins or just that the government dont really want to sanction big builds at the moment in case it looks like we are flashing the cash we dont have?

            Thanks

            Richie
            What is the likely fallout for us with the UK not signing up to the new treaty for us?
            Is their non inclusion a big deal or on the whole are we still getting what we need?


            Raoul

            I mentioned earlier that Cameron's move looks like a phyrric victory, Sure, he got to play the big man to the braying mobs on the Tory back benches but in the aftermath of that, there's a definite sense of 'what the fuck have I done?'. There's a sense of a major strategic miscalculation here and nobody really knows what the consequences will be of the UK being out in the cold as regards decision making in Europe.

            In a way, that's their problem but now it's also ours. They're our biggest trading partner and our closest ally in Europe (forget the '800 years of oppression' shit, we are far closer to London than any other EurVopean capital). Now they've placed themselves in a strange 'in Europe but outside the room' place and we have to try and work out what that means for us practically. I think the political consequences are more important than the economic ones but one economic fallout area might be the IFSC. If the City (of London) is exempt from transaction taxes, CT harmonisation and whatever else Merkozy can dream up, well then you might see Dublin's docklands reverting to their original inhabitants fairly soon.

            V

            It's all a load of aul shite. This thing will be dragging on for years. If the UK get a big competitive advantage versus other european financial centres then it will be repealed sharpish. Tbh I can't see a tobin tax happening any time soon. It's just stupid to do it and let the rest of the world pick up all the business.

            Hitch

            Couldn’t possibly have any effect on us. I can’t even see how it will have any effect on the UK even. In fact no-one has really convincingly pointed out how it could make any difference to anyone at all.

            Why wont the ECB print more euro's for quant easing as the crisis is now effecting most of Europe in a real way now?

            Raoul

            Because of the Germans. They remember Weimar like it was yesterday and have this fixed notion that saver's deposits must be protected at all costs. Of course, they don't realise that German banks onlent those deposits to the periphery and they're already gone.

            V

            There are no votes in solving a crisis before it reaches it zenith. Don't forget that. The german public has to perceive the problems in a real way before the printing press gets turned on. That will eventually happen imo.

            Hitch

            Don’t think they can just print money, but they are essentially doing this anyway by buying bonds. Not really my area tbh and gives me brain hurt to think about it. The main issue though is that quant easing only works if it causes increased bank lending – and that’s just not going to happen. The US have engaged in quant easing on a massive scale and all it has done is result in increased deposits by banks in the Federal Reserve i.e. banks have given back the central bank their money. A far better solution would be to just send everyone in Europe a check for €2,000 – at least then the bulk of the money would be spent.

            With so few projects now going ahead how has supply and demand not reduced the cost of building large capital projects that we can afford to build stuff again? Is it a poor tender process, a lack of reality on behalf of the contractors who still maintain the same boom margins or just that the government dont really want to sanction big builds at the moment in case it looks like we are flashing the cash we dont have?

            Raoul

            NoRiverRequired's answer noted.

            Personally, I think the answer to this question is again more political than financial. If you're Indakinny and you need to shave billions off your cost base, do you (a) start with real cuts to the current budget that will directly hurt people (that you hope will vote for you in the future) or do you (b), slash the capital budget where people won't notice the cutbacks (or, even they do they won't punish you at the ballot box for it)?

            A politician will always choose B. I would always choose A as it offers the abaility to generate economic advantage in the future

            V

            We have another healthy round of wage deflation to go. Plus once the chinese slowdown kicks in then the materials costs will reduce. 2013 -2014 feels like the cheapest time in real terms to me.

            Hitch

            It’s a mixture of (a) they are idiots. I mean, that last budget was painfully bad in terms of the lack of long-term planning. And (b) the returns to government capital investment are quite opaque. For example, the Metro North was estimated to generate about 2.5 times its cost in terms of created benefits to the economy. But nothing near that would return to the government pockets.
            Official Head Marshall of Waterford Gay Pride Festival 2015

            Comment


              #66
              I have a Consensous life Series 2 savings fund with IL&P, I started paying into it about 3.5 years ago and after 5 years you get a bonus. So I am going to Sydney (12 months +) in January and I am wondering should I just cash in this investment now and bring the money to Oz with me and possibly diverse my risk by splitting it as you have said above or just let it ride as it is and cash it in in 18 months time were I will get 5% added to it as a bonus.

              At the moment if I cashed it in I would be down a very tiny amount, like 1% or something but this varies day to day I guess and there has being some pretty wild swings in it in the last while. Performance so far since I started it:



              Any thoughts/recommendations on such investments? I basically was a fish when I took this out and knew nothing really about it other than I wanted to save some money each month but now it would basically be my savings as I don't really have anything else other than a pension that I also took out with ILF which has done considerably worse but seeing as I get quite good tax relief on it its not actually costing me all that much.

              Comment


                #67
                Originally posted by Icarus152 View Post
                V
                studies suggest that your kid’s willingness to look after you in your old age is highly dependent on you having inheritance to leave them
                THE most depressing thing I have ever read!

                Comment


                  #68
                  Originally posted by Emmet View Post
                  Do you think that emigration of many of the country's brightest is an unfortunate but necessary evil?

                  How long do you imagine it will take before we are to regain some form of competitiveness in attracting foreign investment? What sort of a re-adjustment of "average wage" will be necessary before we can start ticking through?

                  Do you reckon an Irish economy sans Euro-Rule could self correct less harmfully than with Brussels in charge?

                  What would you name the new Irish Currency?

                  list these evils in order of evil, a) Overt Capitalism, b)Overt Socialism, c) Bureaucracy, d) Nepotism, e) Laziness
                  quantify your top and bottom picks if possible please.

                  Thanks
                  Do you think that emigration of many of the country's brightest is an unfortunate but necessary evil?

                  Raoul


                  I take it you include yourself in that category.

                  The best thing that could happen is that the various leeches on society here emigrate but that's not going to happen so yes, we're stuck with a situation where people with talent, ambition and guts will take an objective look at the situation here and make a rational decision to seek their fortune elsewhere. And who could blame them?

                  It might be something I'll have to face up to myself at some point, I've been spending lots of working time in London lately and the amount of familiar faces commuting over on Monday mornings is quite sad. Only enlivened by V for Vendetta stalking me around Terminal 2!


                  V

                  Evil?? Cheap frequent flights, huge market that people can go working in without a requirement for a visa and a gamed education system that makes us all appear smarter then we are. Tis hardly even worthy of the name hardship imo.

                  Hitch

                  We need to get out of this mindset of emigration being bad.

                  Emigration is a necessary part of a currency union – sometimes some countries in the union will need labour, and sometimes some countries will have too much labour. People need to be willing to move countries in an economic union. That’s not me saying this – that’s Nobel prize winning Robert Mundell (the so-called grandfather of monetary union) Have a look here for some of his writings: http://robertmundell.net/

                  How long do you imagine it will take before we are to regain some form of competitiveness in attracting foreign investment? What sort of a re-adjustment of "average wage" will be necessary before we can start ticking through?

                  Raoul

                  We have actually demonstrated impressive wage flexibility in this regard vis a vis other European nations. The main driver, as ever, is our CT rate.

                  The IDA are still attracting bits and pieces of new investment, the problem is that there's a world recession so huge new capital investment projects are extremely thin on the ground.


                  V

                  5-10 years to get truly competitive.
                  About a 25% reduction versus the euro average.

                  Hitch

                  We attracted $26bn of FDI in 2010 – unchanged from 2009 – and are the 13th highest recipient of FDI worldwide. That’s more than Canada, India, Mexico. Source: http://www.unctad.org/Templates/Meet...r=2011&month=6

                  Do we have a problem attracting FDI? Unemployment for those with a degree is 6% in Ireland and those without a degree is 20%. The problem isn’t the wages of the educated – which are those overwhelmingly recruited following FDI – the problem is the unrealistic wage demands and labour inflexibility of the uneducated.

                  Do you reckon an Irish economy sans Euro-Rule could self correct less harmfully than with Brussels in charge?

                  Raoul

                  No. We'd have to make a 30 billion adjustment in our budget, literally overnight. How do you think that would go down?

                  V

                  No. Too many idiots thinking they know what they are doing. Dangerous.

                  Hitch

                  No, I personally think the Euro-crats are better able to run an economy than the fools we elect with a few thousand votes. All we are going through at the moment is some teething problems. Having said that they might be terminal teething problems, but I think returning full economic power to the Irish government would be disastrous.

                  What would you name the new Irish Currency?

                  Raoul


                  The Bertie (begging) Bowl.

                  V

                  A Bertie. Worth fuck all and I wish it would kill itself rather than listening to the moaning about how worthless it would be.

                  Hitch

                  The JFK – just to keep the dollar FDI coming.

                  list these evils in order of evil, a) Overt Capitalism, b)Overt Socialism, c) Bureaucracy, d) Nepotism, e) Laziness
                  quantify your top and bottom picks if possible please.



                  Raoul

                  b - don't ask me, ask the citizens of North Korea, the DDR, the USSR, Poland, Bulgaria, Cuba, Romania etc etc
                  Even better, check the stats for new inward migration to those countries when they were under the rule of socialist rulers.
                  e
                  d
                  c
                  a - reverso of my answer above. Everyone wants to emigrate to successful capitalist countries. It's the least worst system of ordering economic affairs that has ever been invented. Remove the profit motive from people's economic behaviour and you're left with Gulags and secret police as the only tools to achieve economic objectives. Not much fun.

                  V

                  Most evil to least evil.

                  b,d,e,c,a


                  Hitch


                  Definitely bureaucracy as the top one!
                  Official Head Marshall of Waterford Gay Pride Festival 2015

                  Comment


                    #69
                    Originally posted by Loopz View Post
                    cheers for doing this

                    we've spent most of our savings extending the house but have a lump maturing in May and are planing on reinvesting most of it again for about 5 years. could you give us a high risk and a safe option for it.
                    We also have a collage fund going for our kids, Its going about 4 years with another 6 left its @ about 75% of the starting capital. It is spread out between Irish, English and european Commercial property what are the chances of this breaking even by the end of the term?

                    thanks
                    We've spent most of our savings extending the house but have a lump maturing in May and are planing on reinvesting most of it again for about 5 years. could you give us a high risk and a safe option for it.

                    Raoul

                    High risk: this may sound utterly nuts but I would buy European bank shares. The sector has been hammered so hard that I see serious value in those banks that emerge the far side of all this with their ownership structures intact. Santander, BBVA, SocGen, Unicredit etc. Stay clear of Deutsche, I cannot say why.

                    Low risk; Bunds.

                    Stay clear of all Irish asset classes for now. There will be value at some point but we are not at the nadir yet.

                    V

                    What is High risk and Low risk in the current climate??

                    Personally for the longer term I like high yielding equities in diversified global companies if you are prepared to ride things out for at least 5 years.

                    In my mind that's safer then cash sitting in an irish bank account. That doesn't answer your question the way you might like but risk ratings can be very misleading in my opinion.

                    Hitch

                    I just wouldn’t know the risky investment options due to being personally cash destitute. But if its for five years then I wouldn’t pop it in a cash account unless you really need the money. An equity fund of some sort would surely be your best bet – although one of those Vanguard funds with low transaction costs.

                    We also have a collage fund going for our kids, Its going about 4 years with another 6 left its @ about 75% of the starting capital. It is spread out between Irish, English and european Commercial property what are the chances of this breaking even by the end of the term?

                    Raoul

                    Fucking hell , talk about bad timing! Unlucky Loopz. I must start up funds for my kids soon, luckily by being a lazy bastard I managed to protect the capital I had earmarked for this.

                    Well the good news is that Irish CP can't really go any lower! I really doubt you will get close to breakeven over the ten years which of course means that you eaten a large loss in inflation-adjusted terms. V is the expert in this area though, no doubt he will try to sell you a fund that will sort you out.

                    V

                    I know nothing about european property but they do seem to be trading at a good yield and a lot of bad news is already out there. If any recession over the next few years was shallow given the severe reduction in new supply and the demand for quality if you are invested in a good property fund then you might do reasonably well. I wouldn't be rushing out to put new money in though. Probably a hold for me.

                    Hitch


                    Well, I’d imagine the damage is done to the property fund at this stage! May as well stick with it, but in future stay away from the fcker that advised you to invest in it in the first place.
                    Official Head Marshall of Waterford Gay Pride Festival 2015

                    Comment


                      #70
                      Originally posted by Icarus152 View Post


                      Raoul


                      The Bertie (begging) Bowl.

                      V

                      A Bertie. Worth fuck all and I wish it would kill itself rather than listening to the moaning about how worthless it would be.

                      This sh1t is getting kinda scary!!
                      ‘IF YOU had not committed great sins, God would not have sent a punishment like me upon you.” Genghis Khan

                      Comment


                        #71
                        Originally posted by Icarus152 View Post
                        V

                        Short term knocking up the wife is probably the best financial option but in the long term you are going to be cut off and left twisting in the wind. Unless you are comfortable with child labour then it's all good.
                        I'm pretty sure I had another 2 paragraphs qualifying the longer term financial scarring a spell on the dole would have and in the end came down against it? Can you post that up as well Icky if I didn't dream that up

                        [
                        Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                        trust me, once the consultant fee invoices start appearing, you will soon alter your views on this one!

                        do give my regards to Mrs V

                        lol. I'm pretty sure I did cover myself somewhat on this one.
                        ‘IF YOU had not committed great sins, God would not have sent a punishment like me upon you.” Genghis Khan

                        Comment


                          #72
                          Originally posted by V for Vendetta View Post
                          I'm pretty sure I had another 2 paragraphs qualifying the longer term financial scarring a spell on the dole would have and in the end came down against it? Can you post that up as well Icky if I didn't dream that up
                          PM sent.

                          Good idea for contributors to proof read everything please and keep up the good work.
                          Official Head Marshall of Waterford Gay Pride Festival 2015

                          Comment


                            #73
                            Originally posted by Icarus152 View Post
                            PM sent.

                            Good idea for contributors to proof read everything please and keep up the good work.
                            It would appear I misremembered! I expanded on my answer anyway. Thanks Icarus.
                            ‘IF YOU had not committed great sins, God would not have sent a punishment like me upon you.” Genghis Khan

                            Comment


                              #74
                              Ok,edited.

                              I've also edited earlier posts to include Hitch's answers.
                              Official Head Marshall of Waterford Gay Pride Festival 2015

                              Comment


                                #75
                                Originally posted by Icarus152 View Post
                                V

                                Short term knocking up the wife is probably the best financial option but in the long term you are going to be cut off and left twisting in the wind. Unless you are comfortable with child labour then it's all good.

                                My central point is that over the long term a period on the dole or claiming benefits will result in one's skills going rusty and missing out on the most productive and lucrative period of your working life so therefore you'd really need to weigh up short term financial neutrality versus the long term financial scarring on your earnings capacity.

                                Also the social welfare benefits will be cut in the long run so it's definitely not going to be a long term option for anyone imo.

                                Hitch

                                Hmm 4 kids equals €560 extra per month. You’d be hard put to turn a profit on that.

                                There are other advantages to kids.

                                A good book out this year called ‘Selfish Reasons to Have Kids’ suggests we spend way too much time on kids when they will usually turn out fine anyway. Review here: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...295724864.html So, it would probably be okay to sit on the couch scratching your balls and swilling beer while they run around educating themselves and earning you a glorious €560 a month. If you ditch the wife after she is done with the child-bearing you also get the bonus single-parent allowance.

                                Longer-term, the downside is that studies suggest that your kid’s willingness to look after you in your old age is highly dependent on you having inheritance to leave them, and that aforesaid couch ball-scratching is probably going to reduce your chances of having an inheritance. Can’t immediately find any of the research papers that found this though, but its quite well-established.


                                sigh



                                "Remember the time he ate my goldfish? And you lied and said I never had goldfish. Then why did I have the bowl, Bart? Why did I have the bowl?"

                                Comment


                                  #76
                                  Isnt buying gold pretty much a scam. You get a piece of paper saying some nice men in Switzerland? or somewhwere are going to look after it for you. Of course when the shit hits the fan they are going to be very diligent in making sure you get your gold. And theres no way a government could seize that shit. And theres no way people would have issued more Paper gold then physically exists? Financial types wouldt try that would they?

                                  Is the fact that every taxi driver i seem to encounter these days is telling me to get my euro out of the country a sign that people should be doing the opposite? You dont think taht there isnt going to be some kind of "repatriation tax" ie looting going on by governments on both ends when people try to get their money home? It all sounds too Canny McSavvy (as they say on the pin) A lot of people plan seems to be. 1. Move savings into Bunds/German Banks. 2. Wait for us to get booted from the euro. 3.>>>>>>>>>>> 4. Profit

                                  Comment


                                    #77
                                    Originally posted by Winning! View Post
                                    Brief thoughts on the pros and cons of opening a Swiss bank account and keeping the majority of ones savings in CHF rather than €, $, any other currency?
                                    Raoul

                                    Well they have set a ceiling on their EUR rate so it's only a stability play as opposed to a return one. So you'd be switching to it out of fear of Euro collapse rather than any other reason.

                                    CHF is intrinsically a 'stronger' currency than either GBP or USD (which have both been greatly devalued by QE). So if protection of your roll is your overriding priority, then being in CHF is probably a decent idea.

                                    V

                                    I'm not sure I like a single specific currency risk against a central bank which can print all the swiss francs it likes and has previously shown a willingness to do this. If the euro gets fucked this will hurt the Swiss big time and they will likely devalue their own currency as well in time.

                                    I'd spread the currency exposure around personally.

                                    Hitch


                                    I’d say Norway would be better. They have a gigantic national savings fund that will ensure their long-term high living standards and economic safety. Switzerland is a bit overdone as everyone wants to invest there and its entirely possible they could revert to negative interest rate accounts in order to make their currency depreciate, which would fck you over badly.

                                    Its worth bearing in mind that this week Switzerland reduced their economic forecasts for growth next year to 0.5% so they are highly linked to the euro even if not directly. (source: http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...y-in-2013.html) They also desperately want to lower their currency, which would make your savings worth less.
                                    Official Head Marshall of Waterford Gay Pride Festival 2015

                                    Comment


                                      #78
                                      Originally posted by CheckRaise View Post
                                      Is it better to be on the dole these days?

                                      Will SLV be up or down in 12 months?
                                      Is it better to be on the dole these days?

                                      Raoul

                                      Fuck no. It must be soul destroying (have never been on the dole myself) to be on the dole if you're genuinely ready and willing to work. There are people for whom it's a lifestyle choice but it's not one I can empathise with. In any case, when the cuts get serious the dole is going to be cut to the bone.

                                      V

                                      For any single year this really depends on your earning capacity and the levels of benefits you are likely to receive etc.

                                      In the longer term I think the financial scarring of an extended period on the dole will hurt your long term earning potential no matter where you go. Letting your skills age doesn't look good to a future employer and you will come back into the labour market lower in the pecking order. In my mind the big earning years are liekly to be your 30's and 40's (and maybe 50's depending on what industry you are in).

                                      Starting on a lower rung coming into that peak earning period has got to hurt a lot as you'll be overlooked for the rest of your life once people see you as a guy who is on the lower earning echelons.

                                      Hitch

                                      How did the argument even start about whether it is better to be on the dole? Most of us aren’t on the minimum wage, and its only around those margins where its even remotely possible to be better off on the dole.

                                      Will SLV be up or down in 12 months?

                                      Raoul

                                      Down imo. Where's the underlying demand?

                                      V

                                      SLV??? If the question is will future social welfare benefits be cut? Then my answer is Yes.

                                      Hitch


                                      No idea what SLV is! Do you mean silver? I’d imagine down if the main drivers of its purchase are for use in manufactured products. Surely it would be better to invest in a product with proper long-term growth potential e.g. pork bellies, orange juice futures etc. Don’t know anything about those tbh, but there’s too much emotion caught up in silver pricing and that leads to price instability.
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                                      Comment


                                        #79
                                        Excellent stuff lads. I will look so knowledgeable over Christmas but glad to see my ideas on this whole debacle are roughly in line with sense.

                                        Also why do Sinn Fein want us to leave the Euro and build stronger relations with Westminster. Irony is beautiful sometimes but to think if they had polled stronger and had a majority in the Dail we would now have a currency pegged against sterling and be in big Dave's pocket.

                                        Comment


                                          #80
                                          Purely from a recruitment side and seeking employment in the future I would say Check Raise being on the dole long term is definitely not a good way to be.

                                          Employers understand that it is tough on the market but unless you are filling your time doing courses and volunteering it looks terrible on the CV.

                                          Basically why take a risk on a guy who has not been working or up to much rather than a guy who has shown a good work ethic and drive to better himself, his community and generally pushing to keep going.

                                          It may sound harsh but it is the reality that the longer people are out the harder it is to get back in.

                                          Comment


                                            #81
                                            Originally posted by RichieM View Post
                                            Excellent stuff lads. I will look so knowledgeable over Christmas but glad to see my ideas on this whole debacle are roughly in line with sense.
                                            The problem with this stuff is no one wants to hear it! Don't be The Grinch.
                                            "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                            Comment


                                              #82
                                              Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                              The problem with this stuff is no one wants to hear it! Don't be The Grinch.
                                              Definitely the best advice that will be given out on this thread. lol

                                              Comment


                                                #83
                                                I have a approx 1k outgoings on loans per month.

                                                I checked my credit score about 2 yrs ago and it was good. (no payments missed before or since) Is there anyway of reducing these without losing my credit score. I did get in touch with a company who said they would cut it in half but it would take 6/8 weeks and that would ruin my score and im not in any real difficulty but hey if there was a way to save a 2/300 a month and keep my score Id take it.
                                                http://www.sitnpoker.com/?amigosid=18

                                                Comment


                                                  #84
                                                  Originally posted by smoothcall View Post
                                                  Cheers for doing this lads, should be an interesting read.

                                                  I've just been wondering about where I should keep my savings, at the moment there all in one place, AIB savings acc. Now I'm not happy keeping em all in there, with the chance of Ireland leaving the euro or the euro going tits up completely.

                                                  What would your suggestions be? I don't really have any interest in making interest! Just want it to be safe, Do safety deposit boxs still exist, and would I be able to keep money in them without having to declare how much or whatever, so I couldn't be forced to change it to a new irish currency should that happen?

                                                  Another plan is just put a lot onto gambling sites, get it into Dollars basically, assume then when I'm cashing out they would have to give me the current rate...

                                                  Any insight would be appreciated from you wise financialististorists!
                                                  I've just been wondering about where I should keep my savings, at the moment there all in one place, AIB savings acc. Now I'm not happy keeping em all in there, with the chance of Ireland leaving the euro or the euro going tits up completely.

                                                  Raoul

                                                  You've kind of answered your own question here; diversification is key and that equally applies to savings accounts as any other form of financial asset.
                                                  Open an account in Germany and get some funds over there; there's your hedge against Euro implosion. Put some money in USD, CHF or NOK as well.
                                                  If you want to lock some money away; buy some blue chip shares, do it via an ETF and then you don't even have to think about it.

                                                  Personally I would have no money in AIB, especially given the open contempt they display for their customers.


                                                  V

                                                  I don't have any ready made answer for you but given your profession and your need for a bank roll I would be taking some cash out and getting it into other currencies just to spread the risks and to allow you to keep working as a poker pro.

                                                  Hitch


                                                  Depends how much you have saved, but I’d say less than maybe €10k then just let it ride in AIB. Can't imagine its worth the hassle otherwise for what is quite an extreme scenario.

                                                  What would your suggestions be? I don't really have any interest in making interest! Just want it to be safe, Do safety deposit boxs still exist, and would I be able to keep money in them without having to declare how much or whatever, so I couldn't be forced to change it to a new irish currency should that happen?


                                                  Raoul

                                                  See the above. Wouldn't be a big fan of putting actual currency in safety deposit boxes, probably more useful for jewels, gold bars, legal papers etc. Also, you need complete faith in the bank holding the box itself so none of the Irish banks would apply. If you really wanted to go down this road, I'd say just get a safe installed yourself.

                                                  Another plan is just put a lot onto gambling sites, get it into Dollars basically, assume then when I'm cashing out they would have to give me the current rate...

                                                  Fucking hell, people still trust gambling sites after FT and Absolute? I'd have slightly more trust in intermediaries like Neteller or Moneybookers.

                                                  V

                                                  If something was to happen the euro credit controls would be put in place so I'm not sure if a poker account would be fully accessible by you. Plus I don't trust online poker companies over the long term. If you can't trust highly regulated entities then how can you trust an online poker company with significant cash?

                                                  It probably would remain accessible but you couldn't be sure. I'd be inclined to open a US and canadian bank account just to keep myself afloat in a time of crisis if I was in your situation

                                                  Hitch


                                                  Do you mean to keep euros in a safety deposit box? There would probably be restrictions on currency conversion for at least a few months after a new currency was implemented, so you’d be talking about having to smuggle it out of the country!

                                                  Why not just invest it in company shares that are unlikely to be affected by a currency implosion – e.g. Tesco? That might sound riskier, but it would probably be safer than keeping it in a safety deposit account. Steady dividend, guaranteed future. That’s proper risk aversion imo.

                                                  Might be an idea to keep some on gambling websites. But as we saw from Full Tilt - gambling sites are a bit riskier than banks. Ladbrokes might be handy though as could withdraw sterling in their UK shops.
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                                                  Comment


                                                    #85
                                                    Just a simple question. If the safety of your cash is priority over returns etc, would leaving deposits with the likes of paddy power or ladbrokes not be one of the safest options? They are large quoted companies who would not be exposed to lending risk like regular banks. Obviously nil interest but instant access.
                                                    Should the euro break up, how would any deposits with the likes of these be treated? Would it depend on where the company is based or what?

                                                    Comment


                                                      #86
                                                      Quick one if you dont mind guys,
                                                      Im plannin on going to Canada should i just keep my money in AiB for when i need to apply for the visa or is it possible to start putting it in a Canadian/Online account til i get there (So i cant touch it just seems like it would be easier to save that way)

                                                      Thanks & cool idea for a thread

                                                      Comment


                                                        #87
                                                        e.g. pork bellies, orange juice futures etc
                                                        I was fucking waiting on that
                                                        [IMG][/IMG]
                                                        People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
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                                                          #88
                                                          Note the prevalence of Fear over Greed in this thread

                                                          very interesting
                                                          "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                          Comment


                                                            #89
                                                            Cheers lads,

                                                            You are saying put money into other currencys, I have a USD account with AIB, would that be safe ? Assume they'll give me a shit rate but it would be easily accessed which is pretty important too. As for opening account in Germany, would you have to go there or can it be done online?

                                                            Ye I guess it's strange my faith in gambling sites, I just don't have much faith in anywhere at the minute, Irish Banks included. I've always been careful which sites I pick though, Generally go for ones with a bookie, generally theyre a lot safer.

                                                            Comment


                                                              #90
                                                              In credit but should'nt be

                                                              Hows it goin guys,

                                                              I tried to deposit to my pokerstars account there sat nite through my moneybookers account which deposits through my laser card. Twice the transaction failed. the third time it worked.

                                                              When i was depositing i knew i was overdrawing by a few quid, but for some odd reason the transactions that failed are comin up as reversal tx on my statement and my account is in credit from them.

                                                              my question is should i just not touch the money in case they realize there was some mistake, which i am sure they will at some stage.

                                                              Thanks

                                                              Comment


                                                                #91
                                                                Has this died a death? (hopefully not)

                                                                Comment


                                                                  #92
                                                                  Originally posted by Fullof..It View Post
                                                                  Has this died a death? (hopefully not)
                                                                  Hopefully not aswell,I have answers from Raoul and V.Just waiting on the Hitchmeister.
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                                                                  Comment


                                                                    #93
                                                                    I don't know what a tracker mortgage is. Can ye help?

                                                                    Comment


                                                                      #94
                                                                      Originally posted by Lplated View Post
                                                                      1. a) What are the chances that the current crisis will eventually be resolved by a total write off of all State debt of all countries in the World?
                                                                      b) If A above were to happen, do you think this would be a good outcome for Ireland, and generally?

                                                                      2. [No offence meant here] How did the financial gurus get it so bloody wrong on so many counts over the last number of years?
                                                                      [[ Specifically thinking of things like non-related advisors putting money into subprime bonds without understanding what they were;
                                                                      like pension funds and other professional money managers failing to sell out their clients shares in Irish Banks until the banks were actually effectively bankrupt;
                                                                      etc etc]]

                                                                      3.If, as seems likely/possible, a combination of Euro problems and non-soft landing from China together with America's failure to get its State in order leads to global armagedeon, is there really any truely safe place for money?
                                                                      V,did you send me an answer for this? I dont seem to be able to find it?

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                                                                        #95
                                                                        Originally posted by RichieM View Post
                                                                        I know I asked a few earlier but I have another for you guys.

                                                                        How close are we to being credible enough to go back to global markets? Are we doing enough to become credible within the length of time in our bailout package or is it looking like we will need more?

                                                                        How far are we from not being considered a contagious and crappy country? Relative to Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy I think we look like the best of a bad bunch but is that just media spin and wishfulll thinking or a pointless distinction?

                                                                        If the euro was to split into good euro and bad euro have we done enough to move into the good euro camp? If not where do you think we would need to be or would it ever happen?
                                                                        How close are we to being credible enough to go back to global markets? Are we doing enough to become credible within the length of time in our bailout package or is it looking like we will need more?


                                                                        Raoul

                                                                        Nowhere near it I'm afraid. There's no way we'll be back in the markets in 2013.
                                                                        Anyway, take the Irish banks as a proxy for the country (which is quite a logical thing to do); their access to market finance is gone, if it wasn't for the ECB emergency funding - they'd be gonzo. Extend that to 'Ireland, the country'.


                                                                        V


                                                                        Seriously? You can spin it any way you like but the people with money don't buy the politicians spin. We aren't credible and won't be credible for a long time. Would you trust us to get things right?

                                                                        The eurozone is going to limp fromone crisis to another for about two years and in the end the weaklings like Ireland will have been completely fucked.

                                                                        Hitch

                                                                        It’s difficult to say given that the ECB is hugely involved in depressing bond yields through market purchases, so its not clear whether our bond yield falls are credible or not. As long as ECB continues to provide us with cheap credit, why would we want to go near the market? We are sticking to the bailout package though and should be fine enough even after the cuts in the last budget which will further depress spending next year.

                                                                        How far are we from not being considered a contagious and crappy country? Relative to Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy I think we look like the best of a bad bunch but is that just media spin and wishfulll thinking or a pointless distinction?

                                                                        Raoul

                                                                        It's pure media spin. We haven't even started on the hard work yet. In fairness to Kenny, he has been a lucky general thus far.


                                                                        V


                                                                        Just spin imo. When they come looking to put together a strong core we will be on the outside no matter what miracle we produce. Our best hope is lashing ourselves to the Brits.

                                                                        Hitch


                                                                        IMF/ECB are looking for a role model country to be able to say ‘this is how you do it’, and we are in prime position to be the good kid. One of the advantages of being the good kid is that IMF/ECB will do everything they can to make our story have a happy ending as it preaches the gospel of austerity – which is what they want to teach Italy / Spain. A few billion to us to teach the trillion euro economies of Italy and Spain is a small price for them to pay. So that’s our advantage – the key organisations want us to not be the contagious and crappy country that we could so easily be.


                                                                        If the euro was to split into good euro and bad euro have we done enough to move into the good euro camp? If not where do you think we would need to be or would it ever happen?

                                                                        Raoul

                                                                        No chance I'm afraid. We are a corruscating pimple on the arse of Europe.

                                                                        V


                                                                        It won't happen imo.

                                                                        Hitch

                                                                        If the euro is split then we hopefully won’t want to be in the good euro. Why would we want to tie ourselves to fundamentally sound economies that are going to have very different interest rate and currency value requirements to our own? It would be a disaster. We would hopefully re-launch our own currency, devalue a bit, then trade in a narrow band with the good euro (but with the option of devaluation / revaluation when the need arises).
                                                                        Last edited by Icarus152; 22-12-11, 13:29.
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                                                                          #96
                                                                          Originally posted by Fullof..It View Post
                                                                          How much of an impact will the interest relief mentioned in the budget have on house prices in 2012 (dead cat bounce?).

                                                                          What should Ireland's game plan be. Hopefully get referendum, vote no, gives us some leverage?

                                                                          According to the moneygame we are the most likely country to default - do you agree?
                                                                          How much of an impact will the interest relief mentioned in the budget have on house prices in 2012 (dead cat bounce?).

                                                                          Raoul

                                                                          You would hope 'none' in that if people sit down logically and work it out over the life of a mortgage, they would understand that stalling their purchase would be better. That said, we've been proven to be a nation of fucking imbeciles so no doubt some will get suckered in by it.

                                                                          V


                                                                          I think the interest relief will have a minimal impact. I would wager good money that house prices will be lower at the end of 2012 then they are at the start.
                                                                          It might result in more people looking at houses but capital will be scarcer then ever next year. It might slow the fall in specific areas where people still have jobs and feel reasonably secure but that won't be most places...

                                                                          Hitch

                                                                          Just as tax changes didn’t slow down the inflating of the bubble, neither is tax going to change the current deflation. We’re talking about a mindset, not a set of economic criteria. Have a read of this from Robert Shiller – talks in a good way about how sentiment affects prices: Link


                                                                          What should Ireland's game plan be. Hopefully get referendum, vote no, gives us some leverage?

                                                                          Raoul

                                                                          You really think there's a 'game plan'?
                                                                          Absolutely we should use whatever leverage we can to get shot of as much of the bank debt as we can. Will we do that? I very much doubt it.


                                                                          V


                                                                          I'd say we'll get offered a sweetner on any vote alright. Probably in advance of a vote rather than waiting for a no vote and going again.

                                                                          According to the moneygame we are the most likely country to default - do you agree?

                                                                          Raoul


                                                                          Yes (assuming Greece isn't in that list as they've effectively already defaulted), the debt dynamics are awful and there's no sign of stabilisation any time soon.

                                                                          V

                                                                          I think at the end of all this we will default on some debt. I also think that other countires will do the same.
                                                                          Last edited by Icarus152; 22-12-11, 23:38.
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                                                                            #97
                                                                            Originally posted by ArmaniJeans View Post
                                                                            How would you price up the Yes/No vote in an Irish referendum on an EU treaty change if it happened in the next 3 months? (Assume the text of the change is broadly in line with what is currently being discussed at the moment).

                                                                            Is there any purchase or act you look back on and say 'wow, that was Celtic Tiger madness I got caught up in back then' ?
                                                                            How would you price up the Yes/No vote in an Irish referendum on an EU treaty change if it happened in the next 3 months? (Assume the text of the change is broadly in line with what is currently being discussed at the moment).

                                                                            Raoul

                                                                            I think the government will do all it can to avoid getting stitched into a corner where it has to hold a referendum. It would almost certainly be voted down, despite the fact that this would be akin to self-harming. Yes, the bailout terms are harsh but without the EU we'd be another Albania, without the Mediterranean climate.

                                                                            In fact, I don't think it would matter what the conditions of any referendum pertaining to EU matters would be at the moment - Enda could instigate an EU referendum to guarantee topless Estonian barmaids in every pub in Ireland and it would be voted down, such is the depth of unthinking and irrational anti-EU sentiment at the moment. It's basic human nature; we're casting about looking for external villains to blame for our predicament when we should really be looking inwards.

                                                                            So I'd make it 1/5 the No vote.

                                                                            V

                                                                            Probably a 70% chance of rejection as it currently stands but I'm sure an inducement will be offered to ensure Paddy gets over the line.


                                                                            Hitch

                                                                            Yes to win – 4/9 – subject to debt forgiveness for Ireland obv, otherwise there’s no chance of it passing. Polls show Irish people have a huge faith in the European institutions – one of the highest in Europe. Providing we are given a clear debt sop there shouldn’t be a problem.

                                                                            Is there any purchase or act you look back on and say 'wow, that was Celtic Tiger madness I got caught up in back then' ?

                                                                            Raoul

                                                                            It would be easy to say 'my house' but we did buy a modest gaff on terms we could easily afford, with a large deposit.
                                                                            7 years on and our mortgage is now 40% of the original purchase price, not bad. It's still a lot of money down the drain when you consider today's prices though but it made Mrs Duke happy and you can't put a price on that.

                                                                            I've never been one for bling of any kind and drive a modest car. I have spent plenty of cash on nice holidays and eating out etc, don't regret a penny of that though.

                                                                            Bank of Ireland shares at €10, there's one! Think I got out at €4.

                                                                            V

                                                                            My biggest purchases in life outside of investing would be paying for my wedding, taking an 8 week dream holiday and buying a car. I don't regret any of these purchases. In general I lead a very comfortable lifestyle and don't suffer any hardships or economic wants. I could definitely tighten my belt and live a little more frugally but my plan in life is to live it to the max I can afford and die with very little left. So far I'm on track but it's a tricky balancing act!!

                                                                            Maybe when I'm 80 I'll regret this approach.



                                                                            Hitch


                                                                            Didn’t have any money during the Celtic Tiger as was doing my PhD. If I’d stayed in my investment job would have been right up there with the madness. Love bubbles. Did have money during the tech bubble and was highly involved in tech stocks. First rule of bubbles is ‘jump right in’ – they are great fun. Just be conscious that you are in a bubble. I’d hate to be the dude down the pub warning everyone ‘doom is nigh’.
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                                                                              #98
                                                                              Originally posted by mocata View Post
                                                                              Any advice on indicators for good spread bets/shorts?
                                                                              Raoul

                                                                              Not really, I have only ever dabbled a tiny bit in financial spread trading. An awful lot of the dealers in our place are mad into it (on their own behalf obv.).

                                                                              Next time I'm in London (not until January thankfully), I'll chat to the guy who takes it very seriously and see if he could give us some tips. Says he doubles his annual earnings through it (which would probably be 150k+).

                                                                              V

                                                                              I'd be lying if I said I did.


                                                                              My only advice is trade what you know, and remember that the markets can stay irrational longer then you can stay solvent when it comes to deciding the quantum of your bet.

                                                                              Also I think betting too frequently and trying to beat the spread is like voluntarily paying extra rake.

                                                                              Hitch


                                                                              Sentiment indicators are the key here. Have a look at the VIX index and that extended family of indicators. http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5EVIX Some really interesting sentiment indicators being developed at the moment, but not yet publically available.
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                                                                                #99
                                                                                ...
                                                                                "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                                                Comment


                                                                                  Originally posted by digiman View Post
                                                                                  I have a Consensous life Series 2 savings fund with IL&P, I started paying into it about 3.5 years ago and after 5 years you get a bonus. So I am going to Sydney (12 months +) in January and I am wondering should I just cash in this investment now and bring the money to Oz with me and possibly diverse my risk by splitting it as you have said above or just let it ride as it is and cash it in in 18 months time were I will get 5% added to it as a bonus.

                                                                                  At the moment if I cashed it in I would be down a very tiny amount, like 1% or something but this varies day to day I guess and there has being some pretty wild swings in it in the last while. Performance so far since I started it:



                                                                                  Any thoughts/recommendations on such investments? I basically was a fish when I took this out and knew nothing really about it other than I wanted to save some money each month but now it would basically be my savings as I don't really have anything else other than a pension that I also took out with ILF which has done considerably worse but seeing as I get quite good tax relief on it its not actually costing me all that much.
                                                                                  I have a Consensous life Series 2 savings fund with IL&P, I started paying into it about 3.5 years ago and after 5 years you get a bonus. So I am going to Sydney (12 months +) in January and I am wondering should I just cash in this investment now and bring the money to Oz with me and possibly diverse my risk by splitting it as you have said above or just let it ride as it is and cash it in in 18 months time were I will get 5% added to it as a bonus.
                                                                                  Any thoughts/recommendations on such investments?

                                                                                  Raoul

                                                                                  Ask yourself this; why the hell would you (effectively an Australian, for the purposes of argument) want to hold an investment based in a small European country with a fund manager with a dismal performance history? You're taking on currency risk for no good reason. The 5% is too small to compensate.

                                                                                  Seriously, why? Dump it, take the money and bring it to Oz. Buy yourself a campervan. Or re-invest it in Oz - an economy with far more potential for upside.

                                                                                  Hitch

                                                                                  If there wasn’t the 5% bonus, then it’s a no brainer to cash this in. This is a pure mug investment due to the fees they charge and the fact that they can’t possibly offer superior performance. However you are probably priced in to continue the investment at this stage. In any case wouldn’t bring the money to Oz – Oz is ridic bubbly at the moment due to the natural resources boom, even after some of the price falls.
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                                                                                    Originally posted by PSV58 View Post
                                                                                    Isnt buying gold pretty much a scam. You get a piece of paper saying some nice men in Switzerland? or somewhwere are going to look after it for you. Of course when the shit hits the fan they are going to be very diligent in making sure you get your gold. And theres no way a government could seize that shit. And theres no way people would have issued more Paper gold then physically exists? Financial types wouldt try that would they?

                                                                                    Is the fact that every taxi driver i seem to encounter these days is telling me to get my euro out of the country a sign that people should be doing the opposite? You dont think taht there isnt going to be some kind of "repatriation tax" ie looting going on by governments on both ends when people try to get their money home? It all sounds too Canny McSavvy (as they say on the pin) A lot of people plan seems to be. 1. Move savings into Bunds/German Banks. 2. Wait for us to get booted from the euro. 3.>>>>>>>>>>> 4. Profit
                                                                                    Isnt buying gold pretty much a scam. You get a piece of paper saying some nice men in Switzerland? or somewhwere are going to look after it for you. Of course when the shit hits the fan they are going to be very diligent in making sure you get your gold. And theres no way a government could seize that shit. And theres no way people would have issued more Paper gold then physically exists? Financial types wouldt try that would they?


                                                                                    Raoul

                                                                                    No. Research the Perth Mint for example.

                                                                                    If you really are this paranoid, then there are umpteen places you can buy real gold (coins or bullion). Stick it under your mattress and wait for the four horsemen to come riding by!

                                                                                    Hitch

                                                                                    Switzerland has protected the money of Nazis and genocidal dictators around the world. Believe me, your money or investment is about as safe as it could possibly be there. Their entire reputation is based on protecting money no matter what.
                                                                                    Having said that, consider me earlier answer re the value of a gold investment.

                                                                                    Is the fact that every taxi driver i seem to encounter these days is telling me to get my euro out of the country a sign that people should be doing the opposite? You dont think taht there isnt going to be some kind of "repatriation tax" ie looting going on by governments on both ends when people try to get their money home? It all sounds too Canny McSavvy (as they say on the pin) A lot of people plan seems to be. 1. Move savings into Bunds/German Banks. 2. Wait for us to get booted from the euro. 3.>>>>>>>>>>> 4. Profit

                                                                                    Raoul

                                                                                    Heh, that is quite a Pin-ish attitude alright!

                                                                                    No, I don't think there will be 'some kind of repatriation tax' - remember that thing called the EU (as opposed to the Eurozone) where there's free movement of capital between member states?

                                                                                    You seem pretty paranoid. Just sayin' like.
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                                                                                      Originally posted by RichieM View Post
                                                                                      Excellent stuff lads. I will look so knowledgeable over Christmas but glad to see my ideas on this whole debacle are roughly in line with sense.

                                                                                      Also why do Sinn Fein want us to leave the Euro and build stronger relations with Westminster. Irony is beautiful sometimes but to think if they had polled stronger and had a majority in the Dail we would now have a currency pegged against sterling and be in big Dave's pocket.
                                                                                      Raoul

                                                                                      Because they're a bunch of populist idiots who are slowly transitioning from 'shoot your opponents' to 'say anything that might play well with the masses'. Remember the absolute fool that Adams looked when he was quizzed on economic issues during the GE campaign?

                                                                                      Pearse Doherty is dangerous though. Watch him.

                                                                                      Hitch

                                                                                      Sinn Fein shouldn’t be listened to on economic matters. Under no circumstances. They are like a university socialist society full of spotty 18-year olds that has just finished reading The Ragged Trouser Philanthropist
                                                                                      Official Head Marshall of Waterford Gay Pride Festival 2015

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                                                                                        Originally posted by Ziggin&Zaggin View Post
                                                                                        I have a approx 1k outgoings on loans per month.

                                                                                        I checked my credit score about 2 yrs ago and it was good. (no payments missed before or since) Is there anyway of reducing these without losing my credit score. I did get in touch with a company who said they would cut it in half but it would take 6/8 weeks and that would ruin my score and im not in any real difficulty but hey if there was a way to save a 2/300 a month and keep my score Id take it.
                                                                                        Raoul

                                                                                        I really don't know, sorry. I know virtually nothing about retail banking.
                                                                                        Official Head Marshall of Waterford Gay Pride Festival 2015

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                                                                                          Originally posted by NewApproach View Post
                                                                                          Just a simple question. If the safety of your cash is priority over returns etc, would leaving deposits with the likes of paddy power or ladbrokes not be one of the safest options? They are large quoted companies who would not be exposed to lending risk like regular banks. Obviously nil interest but instant access.
                                                                                          Should the euro break up, how would any deposits with the likes of these be treated? Would it depend on where the company is based or what?
                                                                                          Raoul

                                                                                          If the shit really hits the fan, shouldn't you be asking yourself where PP keeps their cash? Counterparty risk goes two ways.
                                                                                          Official Head Marshall of Waterford Gay Pride Festival 2015

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                                                                                            Originally posted by Laois Hammer View Post
                                                                                            Quick one if you dont mind guys,
                                                                                            Im plannin on going to Canada should i just keep my money in AiB for when i need to apply for the visa or is it possible to start putting it in a Canadian/Online account til i get there (So i cant touch it just seems like it would be easier to save that way)

                                                                                            Thanks & cool idea for a thread
                                                                                            Raoul

                                                                                            Dunno.

                                                                                            Most of the Canadian banks would have operations in Dublin (Toronto Dominion, CIBC, Bank of Montreal etc). Ring them up, explain your situation and ask if it's possible to open a CAD account with them now. You'll find that banks are very eager to help when you're giving them money, especially these days.
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                                                                                              Originally posted by smoothcall View Post
                                                                                              Cheers lads,

                                                                                              You are saying put money into other currencys, I have a USD account with AIB, would that be safe ? Assume they'll give me a shit rate but it would be easily accessed which is pretty important too. As for opening account in Germany, would you have to go there or can it be done online?

                                                                                              Ye I guess it's strange my faith in gambling sites, I just don't have much faith in anywhere at the minute, Irish Banks included. I've always been careful which sites I pick though, Generally go for ones with a bookie, generally theyre a lot safer.

                                                                                              Raoul

                                                                                              A USD account with AIB would not be safe in my opinion; you are exposed to specific AIB risk and, should things get out of hand in Euroland, AIB would be one of the first to go busto. You'd be far better off opening a USD account with one of the American majors. (Wells Fargo would be my personal choice)

                                                                                              Germany: you have to go there. Ze Germans do love their bureacracy!
                                                                                              Official Head Marshall of Waterford Gay Pride Festival 2015

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                                                                                                Originally posted by Lplated View Post
                                                                                                1. a) What are the chances that the current crisis will eventually be resolved by a total write off of all State debt of all countries in the World?
                                                                                                b) If A above were to happen, do you think this would be a good outcome for Ireland, and generally?

                                                                                                2. [No offence meant here] How did the financial gurus get it so bloody wrong on so many counts over the last number of years?
                                                                                                [[ Specifically thinking of things like non-related advisors putting money into subprime bonds without understanding what they were;
                                                                                                like pension funds and other professional money managers failing to sell out their clients shares in Irish Banks until the banks were actually effectively bankrupt;
                                                                                                etc etc]]

                                                                                                3.If, as seems likely/possible, a combination of Euro problems and non-soft landing from China together with America's failure to get its State in order leads to global armagedeon, is there really any truely safe place for money?
                                                                                                Raoul

                                                                                                a) What are the chances that the current crisis will eventually be resolved by a total write off of all State debt of all countries in the World?

                                                                                                0.00000000000000000000000000001%

                                                                                                b) If A above were to happen, do you think this would be a good outcome for Ireland, and generally?

                                                                                                It won't happen. Not unless the green lizard monsters take control.

                                                                                                2. [No offence meant here] How did the financial gurus get it so bloody wrong on so many counts over the last number of years?
                                                                                                [[ Specifically thinking of things like non-related advisors putting money into subprime bonds without understanding what they were;
                                                                                                like pension funds and other professional money managers failing to sell out their clients shares in Irish Banks until the banks were actually effectively bankrupt;
                                                                                                etc etc]]


                                                                                                Well there's two very separate things in the above question; Ireland's own specific situation and then the worldwide credit crunch.

                                                                                                Let's take Ireland first; a classic case of groupthink. The Regling report nailed this (one of the few things it did nail).
                                                                                                A combination of vested interests managed to persuade ~95% of the population that a classic case of property bubble was, in fact, a good thing. The government and media bought this shite hook, line and sinker. The various 'experts' then became cheerleaders for the bubble - think of all the bank 'economists' like Austin Power and Dan McLaughlin who got vast amounts of press coverage for spouting utter nonsense. Critical analysis went out the window, notable exceptions being David McWilliams and Morgan Kelly. I claim some credit here myself. The public loved it as, being fuckwits generally speaking, they thought property was a free lunch and the path to everlasting prosperity. Without actually having to work for it. Well, we know how that one played out.

                                                                                                The credit crunch was a different beast altogether and was basically the result of a scam perpetrated by the Wall Street banks. Most people 'analysing' the junk that was securitised and repackaged as CDOs\CMOs didn't have the knowledge to do this effectively and the wide boys took full advantage of this. And, similar to here, the wider public loved the myth of forever increasing property prices. Money for nothing, what a great narrative! It's hard to be the guy who stands up and tells the emperor he's wearing no clothes. Analysts who tried to do this got sacked for their troubles.

                                                                                                tldr; people are greedy idiots.

                                                                                                3.If, as seems likely/possible, a combination of Euro problems and non-soft landing from China together with America's failure to get its State in order leads to global armagedeon, is there really any truely safe place for money?

                                                                                                No, if you believe in this sort of doomsday nonsense. Buy beans and shotguns imo.
                                                                                                Official Head Marshall of Waterford Gay Pride Festival 2015

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                                                                                                  Originally posted by Zosma View Post
                                                                                                  Why can't countries write off their debt to one another? E.g. from here Franke owe UK 227bn and UK owe France 210bn. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15748696
                                                                                                  Raoul

                                                                                                  Because it's not as simple as saying that 'France owes England x'. Those are cross-border holdings of myriad financial instruments between myriad banks, corporations and individuals (and that's before even getting into the derivatives). It's not country-to-country debt, it means pretty much nothing.

                                                                                                  If you tried this, every bank in both England and France would close its doors in the morning. Not good.
                                                                                                  Official Head Marshall of Waterford Gay Pride Festival 2015

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                                                                                                    Originally posted by Icarus152 View Post
                                                                                                    Raoul
                                                                                                    No, if you believe in this sort of doomsday nonsense. Buy beans and shotguns imo.
                                                                                                    reading between the lines are you advising me to buy shares in colt, armalite and heinz?

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                                                                                                      Originally posted by RichieM View Post
                                                                                                      reading between the lines are you advising me to buy shares in colt, armalite and heinz?
                                                                                                      personally I love Annacott Steel

                                                                                                      keep it to yourself though
                                                                                                      "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

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                                                                                                        Hi guys

                                                                                                        I was wondering what is the most efficient way to withdraw money from Neteller? I have a few grand in dollars on there I want to withdraw and I'm not in a big rush.

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                                                                                                          LOL!
                                                                                                          Her sky-ness
                                                                                                          © 5starpool

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                                                                                                            Thanks for the warm welcome Michelle. Nice to know I am being taken seriously. I feel so accepted.

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                                                                                                              Originally posted by SpaceMan View Post
                                                                                                              Thanks for the warm welcome Michelle. Nice to know I am being taken seriously. I feel so accepted.
                                                                                                              Ask in the Bad beat/Moan/Venting thread, that is where we ask such things. This was not an ongoing thread where we asked financial questions, it was a novelty thread which is long dead.

                                                                                                              Welcome to the site, the BBV thread can deliver all better than the Wizard of Oz. Unless it's a brain.

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