Soccer - Season bets

[eagle eye]

I've been going through all the leagues to try and find a couple of nice season bets.

The one that stands out the most to me is Benfica to win the Poturgese Superliga at 11/10. They have the same coach as last season Jorge Jesus. They don't appear to have sold anybody yet but have spent €8.5m on Roberto a goalkeeper from Atletico Madrid who was very impressive on loan at Zaragoza last year and €8.4m on Argentinian Nicolos Gaitan a midfielder from Boca Juniors, €5.5m on Argentinian Franco Jara from Arsenal Sarandi and €2m on Fabio Faria from Rio Ave.

They won the league by 5 points last season from Braga with Porto(2nd favourites @ 5/4) a further 3 points adrift.

Bayern Munich at 8/15 seem like certainties for the Bundesliga. They really impressed last season and with a lot of youth in their side you would expect them to improve this season. They too won by 5 points last season from Schalke 04 who have been busy in the transfer market. They have signed up Metzelder, Uchida from Japan who is a really good signing imo, Raul on a free from Madrid and Jendrisek from Kaiserslautern who was impressive last season as they gained promtion back to the bundesliga.
I think that Bayern and Schalke are likely to pull clear at the top and for me Bayern have just too much depth(German international Kroos spent last year out on loan) and with the likely improvement in younger players I think they will win handily this year.

I'm gonna cut this short right here and I'll finish it tomorrow.

[Guest]

I only do it on the english leagues but this season I have plumped for Burnley in the Championship, Southampton in League1, was going to back Sheffield Wednesday until the Tax man came caling and in League 2 Gillingham.

Only have £5 on ew but it gives you an interest in each league all season long, so probably saves me some money in the long run.

Whoever your backing may it be a profitable season ahead to all

[Dice75]

Goin for the glory treble!

Premier League - Chelsea @ 17/10
Championship - Forest @ 15/2
Champions League - Real Madrid @ 5/1

€100 treble = € 13,770

[CHDad]

Benfica have lost Ramires and maybe Luiz. Porto have strengthened I think.

[eagle eye]

Benfica have lost Ramires and maybe Luiz. Porto have strengthened I think.

Is that official about Ramires?

[Trippie]

I got roma at 9/2's a few weeks ago and was great value imo. think they are 4's now. They have brought in adriano and simplicio and were the best team in Italy the second half of the season last year after Ranieri came in. They ended up coming second by a point or two and he took over when they were bottom. Inter look set to sell Balotelli and Maicon and lets face Benitez is nowhere up to same standard as Mourinho. Its clear inter are afraid and thats why they wont release Burdisso to roma despite previously agreeing a fee. But either way still should win Seria A imo

[CHDad]

Is that official about Ramires?

Will be tomorrow night if he passes his medical.

I reckon Luiz is staying though with Benfica unless someone in La Liga splashes 20M on him, Chelsea won't be now.

[Guest]

I got roma at 9/2's a few weeks ago and was great value imo. think they are 4's now. They have brought in adriano and simplicio and were the best team in Italy the second half of the season last year after Ranieri came in. They ended up coming second by a point or two and he took over when they were bottom. Inter look set to sell Balotelli and Maicon and lets face Benitez is nowhere up to same standard as Mourinho. Its clear inter are afraid and thats why they wont release Burdisso to roma despite previously agreeing a fee. But either way still should win Seria A imo

didn't Lazio basically "throw" a game to scupper Roma during the run in?

[The Situation]

Boyles going 6's on Birmingham to get relagated. We've seen this lots of times where a promoted team over achieves in their first season and then gets second season syndrome and flatter to decieve. Happened to the likes of Ipswich a few years back and Reading more recently.

[The Situation]

Also Ladbrokes are best on Everton Top 4 at 8/1. Season was destroyed last year by a ridiculous amount of injuries. Hugely dependent on Arteta staying though so I'll not get on until his future is decided. When himself a Cahill play together they have a 63% win rate which is definitely enough for a top four compared to a 38% win rate without both playing.

Great manager, solid mix of experience and youth, with the likes of Rodwell and Colemann sure to feature this year. And in Beckford I think they've finally a poacher that could bag 20+. He's been superb in pre season and looks to be able to make the step up from Lower league football.

Laying City for Top 4 at around 1/2.

[SandTiger]

If you have a long term roi of 10% you are a god in gambling terms. any successful punter should be able to make a greater roi with multiple bets over the course of the season with the funds you would bet on a season long wager.

[SandTiger]

Boyles going 6's on Birmingham to get relagated. We've seen this lots of times where a promoted team over achieves in their first season and then gets second season syndrome and flatter to decieve. Happened to the likes of Ipswich a few years back and Reading more recently.

This is due to the promotion bonus paid, currently 90m. wage bill goes up... no 90m payment second year... time to sell some players and fight for 17th.

[Guest]

If you have a long term roi of 10% you are a god in gambling terms bookie.

fyp

any successful punter should be able to make a greater roi with multiple bets over the course of the season with the funds you would bet on a season long wager.

Too True; doesn't stop us all acting like total mugs for a few days though

[The Situation]

If you have a long term roi of 10% you are a god in gambling terms. any successful punter should be able to make a greater roi with multiple bets over the course of the season with the funds you would bet on a season long wager.

Hardly season long wagers, giving the reactionary nature of bookies you could have a successful bet/lay after a very small amount of games!

[SandTiger]

Hardly season long wagers, giving the reactionary nature of bookies you could have a successful bet/lay after a very small amount of games!

Thats a big if. If it was that easy all we would have to do is back chelsea to win the league and lay them after their 5th game considering their opening fixtures.

[dannydiamond]

A mate emailed me this morning about a 72 page footie betting supplement in the Racing Post today.

[LuckyLloyd]

Sunderland were 10 / 1 to go down last time I looked. I think that price is far too nice to them tbh. Obviously, I wouldn't consider them one of the three most likely teams to be relegated, but it is likely to be a closer cut thing than that price would suggest.

[Guest]

A mate emailed me this morning about a 72 page footie betting supplement in the Racing Post today.

ya they do it every season

Have it in-front of me now, its quite the document

all the transfers done so far, opinion on all the teams in all divisions

tbh im not sure about the lads who cover football in the post but its well worth a look

*problem with it is that any bet you fancied yesterday at a big price, if tipped in the post today, the price is gone

[SpacedRoundUp]

Reading is a great bet at 12/1 for the championship............

[eagle eye]

Sunderland were 10 / 1 to go down last time I looked. I think that price is far too nice to them tbh. Obviously, I wouldn't consider them one of the three most likely teams to be relegated, but it is likely to be a closer cut thing than that price would suggest.

I'm thinking about backing them with a handicap to win the PL.

Very impressed with some of their signings. Riveros I think will be really suited to the Premier League and Bruce really turned around Titus Bramble at Wigan and has brought him to Sunderland now. Marcos Angeleri was part of a very impressive defensive unit for Estudinates over the last couple of years.
I don't know much about Al-Muhammadi from Egypt but he has been linked with a lot of Premier League clubs over the past 12 months or so.

Also Sunderland fans are raving about Frazier Campbell in preseason, he finished last season in great form and seems to have continued to improve. They have the hugely impressive John Mensah back on loan for a full season too. Everybody seen how good Mensah was in the World Cup but few know that he was that dominant in the PL for them last year when he played.

Jordan Henderson really made a name for himself last season too. Meyler is out for the season afaik which is unfortunate for both Sunderland and Ireland but Riveros will replace him. The only weaknees in their side is a lack of depth in central midfield imo, if they sort that problem I will be backing them with the handicap +38 on BlueSquare. Some people would include the likes of Andy Reid, Malbranque and Zenden as potential central midfielders but for me if they end up playing there you have a weaknees in your team.

Here is a rough depth chart and I might be well off on the order too. I'm not including all players just the ones that are likely to play.

GK. Gordon, Fulop, Mignolet
RB. Angeleri, Ferdinand, Al-Muhammadi, Bardsley
CB. Mensah, da Silva, Bramble, Turner, Ferdinand
LB. Richardson, McCartney, Kilgallon
RM. Henderson, Campbell, Al-Muhammadi, Malbranque
LM. Malbranque, Reid, Richardson, Zenden
CM. Cattermole, Riveros, Tainio
FW. Bent, Campbell, Jones

[shano_88]

+ 1 on Birginham to get relegated, think i might stick a few quid on that. I have the racing post from yesterday in pdf. file if anyone wants it?

[FMWT]

+ 1 on Birginham to get relegated, think i might stick a few quid on that. I have the racing post from yesterday in pdf. file if anyone wants it?

Yeah why not thanks.

Are season long bets really that bad from a gambling perspective? I've never really done them cos I've never had disposable income to tie up for that length of time, but I was thinking of giving a few a go this year.

[Emmet]

+ 1 on Birginham to get relegated, think i might stick a few quid on that. I have the racing post from yesterday in pdf. file if anyone wants it?

please...

Would like to read it in work to fly through the afternoon!

[NoRiverRequired]

+ 1 on Birginham to get relegated, think i might stick a few quid on that. I have the racing post from yesterday in pdf. file if anyone wants it?

That would be great if you could,meant to get a hold of it yesterday.

[shano_88]

File is too big to be sent by email. Any other way i can send it?

[Guest]

Liverpool

Horrid Injuries last season
+Slightly stronger squad

manager who will not take off the likes of Torres against the likes of Birmingham with 30 mins left and game still open

Possibility of a takeover by persons unknown with big bag of money

4 times the price they were at the start of last season

at 14-16/1 for the league
5/1 without top two
are proper bettors who look for the value bets

Discuss!!!?

SPOILER

ps no clownaments

[KevIRL]

Agree with El Shambo

[Guest]

Agree with El Shambo

Whats the catch?

[dannydiamond]

There's some sense in the Liverpool bets,wouldn't be throwing away money on a league title though. . Definately worth a look at top 4 prices aswell.

It's definately looking like new owners are imminent, not clear who they'll be just yet though.
Odds will obv fall dramatically if X Y and Z happens so i'd suggest anyone placing bets on Liverpool for the season should certainly be getting on now before the prices drop.

[Guest]

There's some sense in the Liverpool bets,wouldn't be throwing away money on a league title though. . Definately worth a look at top 4 prices aswell.

It's definately looking like new owners are imminent, not clear who they'll be just yet though.
Odds will obv fall dramatically if X Y and Z happens so i'd suggest anyone placing bets on Liverpool for the season should certainly be getting on now before the prices drop.

Thats the reason behind the above post

new owner = price comes into 8/1 or less without a penny going on

[cardshark202]

+ 1 on Birginham to get relegated, think i might stick a few quid on that. I have the racing post from yesterday in pdf. file if anyone wants it?

send it to me please.

[cardshark202]

File is too big to be sent by email. Any other way i can send it?

upload it to a fileshare place

[shano_88]

il try and upload it tomorow night so.

[RasTa]

Yeah upload it to your rapidshare account or something. Would like to have a gawk at that.

[Guest]

Straight from the racing post

Greece
Aris for the league 50/1

reason:
their manager is none other than Henry Cooper*
They finished 5th last season and he has signed a good few players

Not something to put the life savings on but

1pt ew Aris 50/1 bet365(and a few others)

*

SPOILER

Hector Cuper to you and me

[Ste05]

shano_88, et al

I've deleted that post, AFAIK that is copyrighted material, and so can't be posted here. If people choose to can contact you privately that's none of my business.

Ste05

[FMWT]

This one is short odds but should really be a dead cert.

Aston Villa to be the top finishing Midlands club at 4/9 with bet365

Other midland teams are Birmingham, Stoke, Wolves and West Brom.

[FMWT]

Just checked the above, it's actually now into 2/5

[The Situation]

Aston Villa to be the top finishing Midlands club at 4/9 with bet365

I think we should ban anybody who qoutes prices from Bet 365. It would be a good bet if you could get more than a tenner on!

[FMWT]

I think we should ban anybody who qoutes prices from Bet 365. It would be a good bet if you could get more than a tenner on!

Why I've never betted with them what's the story with them?

Are Inter at Evs a relatively safe bet dya reckon?

[FMWT]

Above is available at Betfair at 1.44 (roughly 4/9) actually if that interests you more.

[connie147]

Rangers!!

It hurts me to say that really, but I just cant believe that Celtic are favourites for the SPL, (money on), and Rangers can be had at 11/8 approx.

Heres last years finishing positions


TEAM P W D L GS GA W D L GS GA W D L GS GA GD Pts

1 Rangers 38 26 9 3 82 28 15 4 0 52 13 11 5 3 30 15 54 87
2 Celtic 38 25 6 7 75 39 14 4 1 42 14 11 2 6 33 25 36 81

I thought Rangers were much the better team last year, and with this being Walter Smiths last season in charge, I fully expect them to come out on top at the end of the season. Celtics top scorer from last season, Robbie Keane is gone, and they have lost their keeper, Boruc. I know rangers have sold a few as well, but it beats me how Celtic are favs for this years league. Inexperienced team, inexperienced manager, Im definately letting my head rule my heart on this one.

Connie

[eagle eye]

Connie, Rangers have a 19 man senior squad of which only 15 have experience of first team football. They cannot afford injuries and they have lost their best players from last season too.

I think Celtic will run away with it this year. Rangers might put up a good fight for a while but injuries will take their toll and they will fall away. In fact I think they might even miss out on second this season but I could pick out the team to beat them for that spot.

Rangers have lost Kris Boyd, Nacho Novo, DeMarcus Beasley, Kevin Thomson who were all starters and then Danny Wilson and Steven Smith who were regular contributors over the course of the season. They have brought in nobody of note to replace these players.

Edit again: Celtic have signed some nice players too. I seen them play two friendlies and Cha Du Ri looks very, very good. Jeffrain Suarez also looked good. There were a lot of Premier League clubs looking to sign Joe Ledley but they got him, Charlie Mulgrew is another player that had a lot of clubs interested in him. Gary Hooper is another nice signing and Darry Murphy is good enough for this level of football too.
Boruc is a loss, a class keeper but overall I think they are far too strong and have much more depth than any other team in Scotland. Neil Lennon did one year with the Celtic reserves and gets his chance straight away with the senior squad. I fancy him to carve out a big career for himself in management.

[FMWT]

Gone for a treble of Chelsea (17/10), Bayern (1/2) and Inter (Evs) all to win their respective leagues

[Guest]

SO far:

1pt ew Tadgh Purcell top scorer in div2 @20/1
1pt ew Newport Blue Sq handicap 18/1

and

1pt ew Aris 50/1 bet365(and a few others)

with a
€1 trixie for the hell of it

[shano_88]

oops, apologies ste!

[Iago]

wouldn't mind a link/look at that supplement if it's available.

[Guest]

Rangers!!

It hurts me to say that really, but I just cant believe that Celtic are favourites for the SPL, (money on), and Rangers can be had at 11/8 approx.

Heres last years finishing positions


TEAM P W D L GS GA W D L GS GA W D L GS GA GD Pts

1 Rangers 38 26 9 3 82 28 15 4 0 52 13 11 5 3 30 15 54 87
2 Celtic 38 25 6 7 75 39 14 4 1 42 14 11 2 6 33 25 36 81

I thought Rangers were much the better team last year, and with this being Walter Smiths last season in charge, I fully expect them to come out on top at the end of the season. Celtics top scorer from last season, Robbie Keane is gone, and they have lost their keeper, Boruc. I know rangers have sold a few as well, but it beats me how Celtic are favs for this years league. Inexperienced team, inexperienced manager, Im definately letting my head rule my heart on this one.

Connie

Personally I cant see either one winning it, I think a Hearts or Aberdeen win is due this season and hopefully it will help revitalise scottish football and bring more money into it

[CHDad]

Anyone feel Liverpool can nick top 4? I see Chelsea and United top 2 and it being tight behind them with Arsenal, Liverpool, City and surprise package but not so surprise package Everton scrapping with them while they are chased by a not good enough Villa and choking Spurs.

Ramble ramble ramble.

Peoples thoughts on the top of the league?

[FMWT]

Anyone feel Liverpool can nick top 4? I see Chelsea and United top 2 and it being tight behind them with Arsenal, Liverpool, City and surprise package but not so surprise package Everton scrapping with them while they are chased by a not good enough Villa and choking Spurs.

Ramble ramble ramble.

Peoples thoughts on the top of the league?

1. Chelsea
2. Arsenal
3. United
4. Liverpool

Some biases of a pool fan perhaps coming through here though

[eagle eye]

I think the Premier League is impossible to predict this year.

Seriously, City can win it with the talent they have got, they could also finish 7th.
Arsenal are similar in that with a fit Fabregas/Van Persie they can win it but if they lose them two for a substantial amount of time they could struggle to get 4th.
Liverpool have more quality depth this year than they have had for a while. They on their very best form can go close to winning as they did the season before last.
Obviously Chelsea and Manchester United have to be at the head of the market but I just don't know, I think anything could happen this year. Rooney had a bad world cup and needs to get back to his best, Evra being given extra time off doesn't sound good, Ferdinand could be done going by all thats went on with him over the last year. United are still strong and could win it but I see them in a situation where they are too dependent on a couple of players them being Fletcher,Vidic and Rooney.
Drogba has been injury prone over the last couple of years, last season he started more games than he had the previous two. If they were to lose him for a sizeable amount of games and other teams improve on last season, well they might not be in the top two.

I just think its more wide open than it has been for a long time. I didn't mention Aston Villa, Spurs or Everton there but all three are capable of a 70 point season and if one of them makes it to that total then they are very likely to be in the top four.

[The Situation]

Why I've never betted with them what's the story with them?

Are Inter at Evs a relatively safe bet dya reckon?

Their the only company I've had problems getting moderate sized bets on with. Other companies would limit the amount you could have on with specials or enhanced odds but 365 take the piss limiting everything if you are in any way successful with them!

I'd say Evs is about right for Inter, I wouldn't back them but wouldn't talk someone out of it either! I mean they really should win but you never know if the squad will perform for Rafa after the departure of larger than life Jose. Trippie wrote a good post on the merits of Roma and I'd say they're the only realistic challangers to Inters crown unless Burlesconi gets the wallet out and spends big at Milan!

[eagle eye]

Personally I cant see either one winning it, I think a Hearts or Aberdeen win is due this season and hopefully it will help revitalise scottish football and bring more money into it

Seriously you think that Aberdeen are going to make up more than 40 points on Celtic who were 2nd last season?

And Hearts are going improve gain over 33 points on Celtic from last season?

[The C Kid]

When Ispwich win the Championship this year can we have written apologies from all the Keane haters and people on IPB who called him an horrendous manager.

[dannydiamond]

1. Chelsea.
2. Man U.
3. Arsenal
4. Liverpool
5. Man City.

[Guest]

When Ispwich win the Championship this year can we have written apologies from all the Keane haters and people on IPB who called him an horrendous manager.

Right after you admit tiger is finished

1. Chelsea.
2. Liverpool
3. Arsenal
4. Man City
5. Man U.

fyp

I just have a feeling about Man U this season
way too dependent on Wayne

[dannydiamond]

Right after you admit tiger is finished



fyp

I just have a feeling about Man U this season
way too dependent on Wayne

I prefer your version alright.

I guess the next couple of weeks in the transfer market could tell alot!

[cardshark202]

Right after you admit tiger is finished



fyp

I just have a feeling about Man U this season
way too dependent on Wayne

That table looks lolridiculous. Fancy a wager?

[Guest]

That table looks lolridiculous. Fancy a wager?

tell me im an idiot and then ask for a bet!?

you don't really getting hustling do you?

ooh my honour etc...

[cardshark202]

tell me im an idiot and then ask for a bet!?

you don't really getting hustling do you?

ooh my honour etc...

a) Didn't call you an idiot

b) Not trying to hustle

c) Normally when 2 gamblers disagree, a bet is made.