General Election Prediction competition

[Raoul Duke III]

As per the GE betting thread.

Rules below:

1. entry fee to this dog show is one pony (€25)
2. winner takes all
3. no need to escrow cash as anyone betting on politics is clearly of the highest moral character
4. you must predict the seat totals for the following groupings:
- FG
- FF
- SF
- LAB
- Renua
- Social Democrats
- AAAPBP
- Others
5. the person who achieves the prediction closest to the actual general election result is the victor
6. all entries must be lodged in this thread by midnight Sunday 7th Feb. Any editing of posts after this time will result in disqualification.
7. all my decisions are final
8. in the event of a tie, we will have some sort of dance-off competition

May the best man win.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

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[Raoul Duke III]

A brilliantly designed comp. One thing though: isn't putting info on thread first open to gaming by everyone else. Not that we would but...

we are all honourable men

[6starpool]

Everyone PM someone who isn't going to enter but is reliable and will post all the predictions the day the competition closes. Seems to be a good solution to this to me.

This needs to have a short window for posting, either everyone submit them a couple of days before the election, or else everyone has to post them in the next few days and it closes Monday or so and everyone can lol at each others predictions when FF get a majority with 88 seats i nthe greatest election upset ever. Or something.

[shano1888]

In. I liked Horatios scoring system. Thoughts on that?

[Raoul Duke III]

In. I liked Horatios scoring system. Thoughts on that?

Yes, I have thoughts.

They are mainly along the lines of 'meh'.

[Raoul Duke III]

Everyone PM someone who isn't going to enter but is reliable and will post all the predictions the day the competition closes. Seems to be a good solution to this to me.

This needs to have a short window for posting, either everyone submit them a couple of days before the election, or else everyone has to post them in the next few days and it closes Monday or so and everyone can lol at each others predictions when FF get a majority with 88 seats i nthe greatest election upset ever. Or something.

that is the case

if you are concerned about people gaming you, post at 11.59 on Sunday night

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

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[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

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[Raoul Duke III]

In


My highly informed selections:


FG 63
FF 32
Lab 8
SF 26
Renua 3
SocDem 3
AAA 4
Others 19

it's AAAPBP for clarity

[6starpool]

that is the case

if you are concerned about people gaming you, post at 11.59 on Sunday night

Ah right. My habit of scanning these type of things has its drawbacks at times.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

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[horatio1]

In. Is Sean Barrett included with others or FG total ?

[Raoul Duke III]

In. Is Sean Barrett included with others or FG total ?

he's FG

[Raoul Duke III]

it's all local

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cjl8OIZijjY

[shano1888]

Going with...

FG 67
FF 35
SF 18
LAB 16
SD 2
REN 3
AAA 2
OTH 15

[Raoul Duke III]

FG 59
FF 32
SF 25
LAB 9
Renua 3
SD 3
AAAPBP 4
Others 23

[BobSloane]

In


My highly informed selections:


FG 63
FF 32
Lab 8
SF 26
Renua 3
SocDem 3
AAA 4
Others 19

My knowledge is limited but shouldn't they all add up to 160..?

[Raoul Duke III]

My knowledge is limited but shouldn't they all add up to 160..?

158 in the newly reconfigured Dail

[BobSloane]

158 in the newly reconfigured Dail

Ah right, is 79 a government so? Thought I heard someone on the radio say it was 80

[6starpool]

61 - FG
32 - FF
21 - SF
11 - LAB
2 - Renua
3 - Social Democrats
3 - AAAPBP
25 - Others

[BobSloane]

- FG - 60
- FF - 31
- SF - 23
- LAB - 10
- Renua - 2
- Social Democrats - 3
- AAAPBP -3
- Others - 26

[horatio1]

Fg-- 61
ff-- 30
sf-- 24
lab-- 12
ren-- 2
sd-- 3
aaapbp--5
others-- 21

[mdoug]

So unders sf and unders ff. Keep em coming.

[horatio1]

So unders sf and unders ff. Keep em coming.

Majority have picked over the current SF line and nearly all so far are within a seat of the FF line.

[elbows]

- FG - 64
- FF - 30
- SF - 20
- LAB - 12
- Renua - 3
- Social Democrats - 3
- AAAPBP -3
- Others - 23

[LuckyLloyd]

FG 61
FF 33
Lab 12
SF 22
Renua 3
SocDem 3
AAAPBP 4
Others 20

[balfejohn]

As per the GE betting thread.

Rules below:

1. entry fee to this dog show is one pony (€25)
2. winner takes all
3. no need to escrow cash as anyone betting on politics is clearly of the highest moral character
4. you must predict the seat totals for the following groupings:
- FG
- FF
- SF
- LAB
- Renua
- Social Democrats
- AAAPBP
- Others
5. the person who achieves the prediction closest to the actual general election result is the victor
6. all entries must be lodged in this thread by midnight Sunday 7th Feb. Any editing of posts after this time will result in disqualification.
7. all my decisions are final
8. in the event of a tie, we will have some sort of dance-off competition

May the best man win.

Should be finished canvassing tomorrow afternoon (just waiting for the last of my tally men and women to send me their totals in East Donegal and Western Malin Head)
Will send in my entry then, sorry for the delay, people kept moving and getting counted twice.

[balfejohn]

GE Comp

Good evening all

Following the final tallies, here are my selections

FG 62
FF 36
SF 22
LAB 11
SD 3
RENUA 2
AAAPBP 3
OTHERS 19

Total 158

good luck all. should be plenty of debating before we get into the counting on the 27th.

John

[Raoul Duke III]

finally got around to tabulating this:

[Raoul Duke III]

everyone looks to have gone too high on FG at this point

maybe the second debate tomorrow will provide some sort of a breakout for someone

[angle_grinder]

Yeah the numbers for Fine Gael here are as ridiculous as the random numbers Enda and Joan are throwing out tonight

[Raoul Duke III]

finally got around to tabulating this:

the winner of this is going to be the 'least wrong' rather than the 'most right'

[elbows]

the winner of this is going to be the 'least wrong' rather than the 'most right'

Looks like I will be the least right

[Raoul Duke III]

Looks like I will be the least right

shano imo

[Raoul Duke III]

here's a sample of what the result could look like:

results based on the sum of the absolute difference of each party prediction from the actual

[Raoul Duke III]

Bob is the favourite imo

anyone up for some side bets here?

[shano1888]

shano imo

Meh I was always going to be first or last.

[balfejohn]

here's a sample of what the result could look like:

results based on the sum of the absolute difference of each party prediction from the actual

Interesting tables
Still think the others is very high
People will go back to the main parties on the day
If turnout is late 50s or low 60s the main parties will benefit

[Raoul Duke III]

Interesting tables
Still think the others is very high
People will go back to the main parties on the day
If turnout is late 50s or low 60s the main parties will benefit

weather is predicted bad

[BobSloane]

Anyone gets within a total difference of 30 will probably win this. RD3 favourite imo. Worst.Predicting.Ever.

[Raoul Duke III]

Anyone gets within a total difference of 30 will probably win this. RD3 favourite imo. Worst.Predicting.Ever.

I have you as fav!

you could be spot on with Indos and SF

[Raoul Duke III]

I have you as fav!

you could be spot on with Indos and SF

the comp looks to be coming down to the wire, with a chance of recounts, court cases and possibly even violence. This will go all the way and might even end in a tie.

In an ironic twist of fate, I am funking SF to pick up a few extra seats to get me over the line and fuck Bob over

Tiocfaidh ar la

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ORifieiZiP4

[Raoul Duke III]

Close to calling this

SPOILER

For myself

[elbows]

Close to calling this

SPOILER

For myself

It suits me as I have your details saved

[Raoul Duke III]

It suits me as I have your details saved

Still a chance of Bob coming with a late rattle!

Need O'Riordan to hold on in DBN.

[elbows]

Still a chance of Bob coming with a late rattle!

Need O'Riordan to hold on in DBN.

Could be a few days yet. They said they hope to have it wrapped up by tonight but can't see that happening. Power will have to be dragged out kicking and screaming

[BobSloane]

Still a chance of Bob coming with a late rattle!

Need O'Riordan to hold on in DBN.

Think I need both Broughan and Finian McGrath to be elected. Extreme longshot territory

[Raoul Duke III]

Think I need both Broughan and Finian McGrath to be elected. Extreme longshot territory

yeah - and I think the Shinner to lose out in Longford-Westmeath too

that would give us:

a tie!

has this ever happened in Irish electoral history?

[BobSloane]

Think the above unlikely-absolutely-everything-going-my-way would leave you on +32..?

[Raoul Duke III]

Think the above unlikely-absolutely-everything-going-my-way would leave you on +32..?

30 imo, here's the table with just the two of us (Excel doing all the work so shout if you see a problem)

[BobSloane]

Sorry, I was just mentally adding the difference columns in the earlier table which has your side coming down at 32. Table with just two of us looks right

[Raoul Duke III]

Sorry, I was just mentally adding the difference columns in the earlier table which has your side coming down at 32. Table with just two of us looks right

Bonkers Bannon about to be eliminated in Longford-Westmeath so a straight shootout between LAB Penrose and SF Hogan for the fourth seat. Never has so little meant so comparitively little but yet so much.

O'Riordan supposed to miss out narrowly in DBN so you should be good there.

[BobSloane]

I grudgingly offer you a draw

[Raoul Duke III]

I grudgingly offer you a draw

I'll give you your money back and a copy of this:



second prize: two copies

[BobSloane]

You had me at money back...but then you blew it.
Hopefully Averil wins the recount takes the last seat in DBN after McGrath. Now that would be salty

[Raoul Duke III]

You had me at money back...but then you blew it.
Hopefully Averil wins the recount takes the last seat in DBN after McGrath. Now that would be salty

that would be puke-inducing

might have to head up to the grassy knoll in Howth with a sniper rifle if that happened

[elbows]

You had me at money back...but then you blew it.
Hopefully Averil wins the recount takes the last seat in DBN after McGrath. Now that would be salty

She found some more votes. Getting ever closer now

[Raoul Duke III]

She found some more votes. Getting ever closer now

What are you trying to do to me?

[elbows]

What are you trying to do to me?

Looks like the guy who didn't stamp the votes could keep her out. Ah well.