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**flushjee** · 12-04-12, 09:21

sunnyhill boy and Giles cross for me

**FeetMagic** · 12-04-12, 10:08

Any interest in a sweepstakes?

**burkeyoa** · 12-04-12, 11:21

Yeah a sweep stake would be fun if we could get the numbers

**flushjee** · 12-04-12, 11:39

Ill be in too if I can transfer to stars. Start a new thread maybe FeetMagic?

**Fishflop21** · 13-04-12, 13:10

Amberleaf ? What do you think of Ballabriggs doing it again? do ya think he has a chance?
I've gone for west end rocker and On his own. West End Rocker 10 win. On his Own 5 win.
I think the 2 above have the best chance IMO
I was lucky enough to pick Syncnorized in the sweepstake in work

**Arazi** · 13-04-12, 23:21

I've backed 3 in the race:
Synchronised who will relish the trip and is potentially well handicapped even with top weight, I am concerned about his jumping.
Organised Confusion, Irish National winners have a good record and he's potentially well handicapped, plus I like his prep.
My main fancy though is Becauseicouldntsee, really like this one off a beautiful racing weight coming off a big run in Cheltenham which was just his National trial. I think this will be a big mover tomorrow.

**NewApproach** · 14-04-12, 00:52

Synchronised is an awful price. I'd hardly make him favourite of the McManus runners never mind the whole field.

**Arazi** · 14-04-12, 01:28

Lol that's probably the equivalent of saying you'd rather Kings vs Aces.

**Phil3** · 14-04-12, 06:01

Trends!

AGE 6 year olds haven't won since 1922 7 year olds haven't won since 1940 8 year olds only 1 win in last 18 years 13+ year olds only 2 wins in entire history and none have placed since 1969

The stats don't lend credit to 6, 7, 8 & 13+ year olds so we can eliminate these.

HORSES ELIMINATED:- ALFA BEAT, BLACK APALACHI, TATENEN, SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM, ON HIS OWN, ORGANISEDCONFUSION, QUISCOVER FONTAINE, THARAWAAT, VIKING BLOND, HELLO BUD, OUR ISLAND, SMOKING ACES & BALLYVESEY.

BREEDING French bred horses have only won once in the last 101 years

Apart from Mon Mome's anomaly, French bred's are ones to avoid in this race.

HORSES ELIMINATED: NEPTUNE COLLONGES, MON MOME, LE BEAU BAI & SWING BILL.

STAMINA Every winner since 1970 had previously won over a 3m+ distance

Comes as no surprise that a horse needs to be proven over a staying distance to win this. Changed recently so all entrants need to have finished in the first 4 in a 3m chase so it won't eliminate many this time.

HORSES ELIMINATED:- SEABASS, BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE & IN COMPLIANCE

FITNESS Last 29 winners of race had all run in the 50 days previous.

Very hard to run well in this stamina sapping race without having at least a warm up race.

HORSES ELIMINATED: CALGARY BAY, CHICAGO GREY, WEST END ROCKER, ALWAYS RIGHT, CAPPA BLEU, TREACLE, ARBOR SUPREME, STATE OF PLAY, GILES CROSS, VIC VENTURI & ANY CURRENCY

OFFICIAL RATING Last 11 winners were all officially rated 136+

Must have shown a decent amount of ability previously.

HORSES ELIMINATED: NEPTUNE EQUESTER, ABBEYBRANEY & SADDLERS STORM.

CHASE EXPERIENCE Last 11 winners had all previously ran in 10 or more chases

Not surprisingly the winner can't have any weakness in his jumping and that comes from experience.

HORSES ELIMINATED: SYNCHRONISED, WEIRD AL & JUNIOR

BIG FIELD & RACE WINNER Last 11 winners had previously won a race with 12+ runners and worth over £17k.

A horse who's won a big prize whilst in a big field has a big experience boost here.

HORSES ELIMINATED: PLANET OF SOUND, DEEP PURPLE, THE MIDNIGHT CLUB, KILLYGLEN, POSTMASTER & MIDNIGHT HAZE

FALLS Last 11 winners had all never fallen more than once in their career

Unsurprisingly you want to be backing a horse with a good jumping record.

HORSES ELIMINATED: ALWAYS WAINING

CHECK We are now down to the Final 4 of BALLABRIGGS, ACCORDING TO PETE, RARE BOB & SUNNYHILLBOY. It becomes a bit difficult to split these with a definitive reason.

All the last 10 winners have received at least 7lbs from the top weighted horse AND have ran 3 to 6 times since September of that season. ELIMINATE BALLABRIGGS

British bred horses have almost as poor record French with no wins and only 6 places in the last 10 years (French 1 win, 5 places). ELIMINATE ACCORDING TO PETE

This now leaves us with RARE BOB and Sunnyhillboy.

I’m inclined to go with Rare Bob who is the best age with 10 year olds winning 5 of the last 10 races and has the benefit of having experience over the “National” fences like 6 of the last 10 winners.

**The Situation** · 14-04-12, 08:19

Had a mare yesterday. Betting the national is a sure fire way of repeating that feat. Was meaning to get on Shakalaka but has gone too short now imo. Took Sunnyhill ew @ 20'.

The Aintree hurdle looks like the race of the festival, not that the Beeb will give it more than 2mins coverage pre race, trappy betting heat at the moment though.

**NewApproach** · 14-04-12, 08:46

Originally posted by Arazi View Post

Lol that's probably the equivalent of saying you'd rather Kings vs Aces.

How?

**Wesley Harms** · 14-04-12, 09:07

Originally posted by NewApproach View Post

How?

You do talk silly sometimes. The gold cup winner, already a welsh national winner, classiest horse in the race, guaranteed to get the trip and you think he's not the best of the JP horses.

If he's in touch at the last he will win going away. Jumping is the only issue and not that big an issue in fairness.

Ladbrokes go 12-1 and that's defo a fair price, 7-1 was madness but still a worthy favourite

**The Situation** · 14-04-12, 09:13

Originally posted by Howard Finkel View Post

You do talk silly sometimes. The gold cup winner, already a welsh national winner, classiest horse in the race, guaranteed to get the trip and you think he's not the best of the JP horses.

If he's in touch at the last he will win going away. Jumping is the only issue and not that big an issue in fairness.

Ladbrokes go 12-1 and that's defo a fair price, 7-1 was madness but still a worthy favourite

Well if Synch is 12's and Sunnyhill is generally 16's, there isn't a huge difference. Saying that the difference between these is the equivalent of preferring Kings over Aces is crazy.

**Wesley Harms** · 14-04-12, 09:16

Originally posted by The Situation View Post

Well if Synch is 12's and Sunnyhill is generally 16's, there isn't a huge difference. Saying that the difference between these is the equivelent of preferring Kings over Aces is crazy.

Lol I didn't even see that post, I was commenting on NA post about the JP horses.

**Strewelpeter** · 14-04-12, 09:39

Three against the field

Organised Confusion - Heart could be ruling head here, my daughter works in the yard and rides him regularly. He's a real star, has the form for it and mostly jumps for fun. He's very young and may well be better placed for it in the future but he is unlikely to be better weighted. (Well actually knowing ALTM he'd be capable of getting it dropped a stone before ressurecting it

)

Planet of Sound - this is the class horse in the race, carrying a bit of weight but when you look at his grade 1 form against say Synchronised it doesn't look all that bad. If the wind operation had been successful 33/1 is huge.

Seabass - I've seen him run a few times and Katie really knows how to get a tune out of him. Ruby on the other hand had to dig deep to get him up the hill in Naas last time, I don't know what to make of that but he could be anything, ~~probably too short a price~~. Edit just how short it is now, 14/1 is a joke price

Katie and Nina riding out a finish together would be quite the story!

There are another seven on my shortlist

Shackalack - too short to back
Ballabrigs - too much weight
Junior - mmmmm too much messing
Giles Cross - might still go his way if it rains more

If Synchronised does the usual National day thing of shortening to a ridic price I'd be tempted to lay it - JP's third best chance of winning it IMO.

**NewApproach** · 14-04-12, 09:45

Originally posted by Howard Finkel View Post

You do talk silly sometimes. The gold cup winner, already a welsh national winner, classiest horse in the race, guaranteed to get the trip and you think he's not the best of the JP horses.

If he's in touch at the last he will win going away. Jumping is the only issue and not that big an issue in fairness.

Ladbrokes go 12-1 and that's defo a fair price, 7-1 was madness but still a worthy favourite

Jumping will undo any chance he has. I appreciate he is classy in the context of this race but if he loses his position by making a few errors he will be doing very well to win.

**Arazi** · 14-04-12, 09:48

Originally posted by The Situation View Post

Well if Synch is 12's and Sunnyhill is generally 16's, there isn't a huge difference. Saying that the difference between these is the equivalent of preferring Kings over Aces is crazy.

No it isn't. JP has 4 horses in the race: Quiscover Fontaine a 100/1 shot and Arbor Supreme a 250/1 shot are two rags.
The Fav Synchronised is a best priced 9/1 and as such is the subject of a price war between the bookmakers to get him out to that price (he's probably IMO a 5/1 to 6/1 shot @ 100% lines). Sunnyhill Boy can be backed at 20/1 and is a suspect jumper.

Saying that Synchronised shouldn't be Fav of the JP runners is plain fcuking stupid.
I'd be something like
8/13 Syn
10/3 Sunny
10 QF
16 Arb

**NewApproach** · 14-04-12, 09:51

Originally posted by Arazi View Post

No it isn't. JP has 4 horses in the race: Quiscover Fontaine a 100/1 shot and Arbor Supreme a 250/1 shot are two rags.
The Fav Synchronised is a best priced 9/1 and as such is the subject of a price war between the bookmakers to get him out to that price (he's probably IMO a 5/1 to 6/1 shot @ 100% lines). Sunnyhill Boy can be backed at 20/1 and is a suspect jumper.

Saying that Synchronised shouldn't be Fav of the JP runners is plain fcuking stupid.
I'd be something like
8/13 Syn
10/3 Sunny
10 QF
16 Arb

You taking bets?

Edit: also wtf with the idea of synchronised's true price being 5 or 6 to 1??!

**Arazi** · 14-04-12, 10:00

Thats 100% line.
If you want 11/4 Sunny you can have it.

**NewApproach** · 14-04-12, 10:03

Originally posted by Arazi View Post

Thats 100% line.
If you want 11/4 Sunny you can have it.

Will take 200 at 11/4 SHB in a group bet on JP runners so, assuming we can escrow.

Edit: obv one of the four must finish otherwise void bet.

**NewApproach** · 14-04-12, 10:06

What price will you lay QF in that market also?

**Arazi** · 14-04-12, 10:07

Cool you have that under those rules, (Rule 4 based on 4/7, 11/4, 8, 14), best of luck.

**Arazi** · 14-04-12, 10:08

Originally posted by NewApproach View Post

What price will you lay QF in that market also?

8/1 although I think thats a bit of a rick on 2nd thoughts but you can have some.

**NewApproach** · 14-04-12, 10:10

Originally posted by Arazi View Post

8/1 although I think thats a bit of a rick on 2nd thoughts but you can have some.

Anything up to 50?

**Arazi** · 14-04-12, 10:16

Originally posted by NewApproach View Post

Anything up to 50?

50 is fine.

**A_CitizenErased** · 14-04-12, 10:20

Backing Giles Cross, Sea Bass and Shackalaboomboom.

Big single win on Oscars Whiskey too in the 3:50

**Mellor** · 14-04-12, 10:27

Originally posted by Arazi View Post

Thats 100% line.
If you want 11/4 Sunny you can have it.

I still don't get what you mean by 100% book.
A 100% book increases the odds not shortens them?

eg. 100% book on a 50/50 is both at evens, not the 10/11 or what ever the bookies offer.

What am I missing

**Arazi** · 14-04-12, 10:41

Originally posted by Mellor View Post

I still don't get what you mean by 100% book.
A 100% book increases the odds not shortens them?

eg. 100% book on a 50/50 is both at evens, not the 10/11 or what ever the bookies offer.

What am I missing

It means that I'm not prepared to lay the 100% line, ie Im a grubby little thief

**Pistol Peter** · 14-04-12, 11:12

Originally posted by Arazi View Post

It means that I'm not prepared to lay the 100% line, ie Im a grubby little thief

Ill take 11-4 Sunnyhill for €200 at 11-4?
No need for escrow, will sort it out on boyles, paddys mb or bank xfer.
Let me know if thats ok?

**Arazi** · 14-04-12, 11:20

Originally posted by Pistol Peter View Post

Ill take 11-4 Sunnyhill for €200 at 11-4?
No need for escrow, will sort it out on boyles, paddys mb or bank xfer.
Let me know if thats ok?

Ye you have that.
Ok thats it I'm 2/1 now SHB

**Phil3** · 14-04-12, 11:32

Originally posted by A_CitizenErased View Post

Backing Giles Cross, Sea Bass and Shackalaboomboom.

Big single win on Oscars Whiskey too in the 3:50

wouldn be confident in a big single on oscars whiskey..looked dead on his feet after the world hurdle
heres the race rated from a rating system i have used for ages

6 Zarkandar (IRE) 111 148 126 10
5 Thousand Stars (FR) 124 95 135 4
2 Rock On Ruby (IRE) 169 122 130 8
4 Third Intention (IRE) 111 152 90 6
1 Oscar Whisky (IRE) 114 69 122 15
3 Saphir River (FR) 82 0 0 0

the numbers beside them are there last run..second last run..third last run and there rating figure for today! will be having a bet on zarkandar or rock on ruby!

good luck though if its a big single

**tipp86** · 14-04-12, 11:35

Take 5/1 paying 5 places or 8/1 with 4 places ? I assume 8/1 with 4 ?

**NewApproach** · 14-04-12, 11:35

Zarkandar and Oscar Whiskey are both lays for me.

**Wesley Harms** · 14-04-12, 11:37

Originally posted by NewApproach View Post

Zarkandar and Oscar Whiskey are both lays for me.

I wouldn't be laying Zarkandar, I'm sure Ruby could have taken over on Rock on Ruby if he wanted.

**NewApproach** · 14-04-12, 11:37

Originally posted by tipp86 View Post

Take 5/1 paying 5 places or 8/1 with 4 places ? I assume 8/1 with 4 ?

What's the selection. Much better off taking the 8/1 but probably better again going win only.

**NewApproach** · 14-04-12, 11:40

Originally posted by Howard Finkel View Post

I wouldn't be laying Zarkandar, I'm sure Ruby could have taken over on Rock on Ruby if he wanted.

I don't know, don't forget ROR is in a satellite yard so Ruby may not have as much involvement. Also it would be pretty harsh on Fehily to jock him off, he is a top jock in his own right. Price on Zark is now crazy, can't see the race being full of pace, unlikely to suit him.

**Arazi** · 14-04-12, 11:42

Originally posted by Howard Finkel View Post

I wouldn't be laying Zarkandar, I'm sure Ruby could have taken over on Rock on Ruby if he wanted.

Nah he couldn't really as he'd always be riding Hurricane Fly V ROR when they meet next year. Ruby was saying thou that he thought ROR should be Fav for the race today.
Very trappy contest for me, I guess I fancy OW a little bit but I wouldn't be tempted to have a bet.

**tipp86** · 14-04-12, 11:43

Originally posted by NewApproach View Post

What's the selection. Much better off taking the 8/1 but probably better again going win only.

Jus scrolling through here for one or two outsiders ( tiny money ). SP wrote about planet of sound so i backed him to win and place on betfair as opposed PP.

Betfair

Place 9.8

Win 46

PP

Place 5/1

Win 28/1

Il rarely back anything but how does anyone with any small knowledge use the likes of Paddy & Boyles.

**Wesley Harms** · 14-04-12, 12:01

Originally posted by NewApproach View Post

I don't know, don't forget ROR is in a satellite yard so Ruby may not have as much involvement. Also it would be pretty harsh on Fehily to jock him off, he is a top jock in his own right. Price on Zark is now crazy, can't see the race being full of pace, unlikely to suit him.

Originally posted by Arazi View Post

Nah he couldn't really as he'd always be riding Hurricane Fly V ROR when they meet next year. Ruby was saying thou that he thought ROR should be Fav for the race today.
Very trappy contest for me, I guess I fancy OW a little bit but I wouldn't be tempted to have a bet.

Nah your insane. Ruby Walsh will ride Rock on Ruby in all his prep races next season and he would have rode him today if he wanted.

Nicholls even said in his column that he fancied Zarkandar more.

**SatNav** · 14-04-12, 12:03

Mia just picked her horse "junior" , she giggled when I read out the name.

I am gonna go with Seabass as I have eaten fish every single day for the last two weeks

**A_CitizenErased** · 14-04-12, 12:06

Originally posted by Michelle SatNav View Post

I am gonna go with Seabass as I have eaten fish every single day for the last two weeks

**NewApproach** · 14-04-12, 12:08

Richie bear in mind that the Nicholls stable have always been mad for Zarkandar and it seems Rock On Ruby's progress this season has surprised them somewhat. I'm not saying its clear cut but id definitely be with Rock on Ruby at the prices.

**Mellor** · 14-04-12, 12:22

I've gone with SHB at 18/1 and the GF has SB at 11/1

I'd be interested in that SHB vrs Sync match bet is somebodys wants to lay odds?

**Arazi** · 14-04-12, 12:25

Originally posted by Mellor View Post

I've gone with SHB at 18/1 and the GF has SB at 11/1

I'd be interested in that SHB vrs Sync match bet is somebodys wants to lay odds?

If thats the Best of the JP McManus trained runners you can have 100 @ 11/4 if you wish.

**Mellor** · 14-04-12, 12:34

Originally posted by Arazi View Post

If thats the Best of the JP McManus trained runners you can have 100 @ 11/4 if you wish.

Thanks.
$100 at 11/4 (dollars ok with you?, all my account that allow transfers are in dollars)

**The Situation** · 14-04-12, 12:36

Simonsig to win by 6 or less lengths here please!

**Arazi** · 14-04-12, 12:41

Originally posted by Mellor View Post

Thanks.
$100 at 11/4 (dollars ok with you?, all my account that allow transfers are in dollars)

Ye Stars is cool, I'll ship later this evening when I'm home if I lose.

**Wesley Harms** · 14-04-12, 13:17

Originally posted by The Situation View Post

Simonsig to win by 6 or less lengths here please!

60 lengths IMO

**The Situation** · 14-04-12, 13:33

Originally posted by Howard Finkel View Post

60 lengths IMO

Lols, had McCains horse not nearly snotted himself at the last he might have kept him within 10.

**A_CitizenErased** · 14-04-12, 13:55

Zarkander gone.

**A_CitizenErased** · 14-04-12, 13:57

Originally posted by A_CitizenErased View Post

Backing Giles Cross, Sea Bass and Shackalaboomboom.

Big single win on Oscars Whiskey too in the 2:50

GET THE FUCK IN GERRAGHTY!

**Wesley Harms** · 14-04-12, 13:59

I would have given anything to see Big Bucks run in that race

**NewApproach** · 14-04-12, 14:09

Originally posted by Howard Finkel View Post

I would have given anything to see Big Bucks run in that race

How would you have priced it up with him in?

**luckforsome** · 14-04-12, 14:28

...I reckon Ruby won't run in the Hurdle next year before the National...
Feel for the Guy, always injured at Horrible times...

**The Situation** · 14-04-12, 14:31

Fuck him, feel for the lads who travel all over the country to ride 100/1 no hopers who'll never get near a National ride not to mind miss out 1 year.

**Caf** · 14-04-12, 14:32

Ballabriggs, Hello Bud and Treacle.

**A_CitizenErased** · 14-04-12, 14:33

Old man just had 10er win on Saint Are 11/1...sigh.

**TheDrunkenOne** · 14-04-12, 14:33

only one winner imho

Shakalaka Boom Boom - Shakalaka Boom Boom

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vKrPa4eR_CQ

Shakalaka Boom Boom - Shakalaka Boom Boomboom shakalaka everybody on your feetsthe ladies in the house feel complete??while the guy says shakalaka boomcome o...

**Wesley Harms** · 14-04-12, 14:48

Originally posted by NewApproach View Post

How would you have priced it up with him in?

Hmmm, I reckon he would be favourite. 6/4 maybe. Maybe less. Not sure tbh, I'd never make a bookie

Calgary Bay will win the national though

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