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Cheltenham day 1 (Tuesday 11th March)

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    Cheltenham day 1 (Tuesday 11th March)

    1.30pm Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
    2.05pm Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase
    2.40pm JLT Specialty Handicap Chase
    3.20pm Stan James Champion Hurdle
    4.00pm OLBG Mares’ Hurdle
    4.40pm National Hunt Chase
    5.15pm Rewards4Racing Novices’ Handicap Chase
    Last edited by amberleaf; 20-01-14, 11:53.
    Mattie McGrath wanna-be

    #2
    One for each day do the trick?
    Mattie McGrath wanna-be

    Comment


      #3
      Think the mares race is now at 4.00 and the Cross country is now on Wednesday

      Comment


        #4
        yup think that right now,
        Mattie McGrath wanna-be

        Comment


          #5
          Anyone have any thoughts on the Arkle? Have Defy Logic backed @16s but hate the bet now. The reason i dont like the bet is I think there are far too many horses in the race that either like to lead from the front like Defy Logic, Rock on Ruby and Champagne Fever (if he runs) and those that race handy like Dodging Bullets and Felix Yonger that it will set it up for someone else.
          Think Trifolium is something of a dark horse as his trainer is on record as saying winter ground does not help him and he has run well at the festival on better ground in the past although he too can race handy. Hinterland is the other horse of interest to me!!

          Comment


            #6
            Originally posted by Gimmeabreak
            Supreme Novice

            The Tullow Tank an absurd price and well made for this race - still plenty of meat on the bone at his price of 12/1. My current bet is 14/1 on TTT.
            SP will be less than half that price IMO
            Turning millions into thousands

            Comment


              #7
              Will ipb be having an interest in a certain mares race, SP?

              Comment


                #8
                Defy Logic out for the season, confirmed by Paul Nolan this morning.

                Comment


                  #9
                  Watched the brave inca supreme again. What a race. Knew one of the owners and was standing on the line watching them come up the hill. Hadn't watched the race since. Jesus Barry Cash went the long way round. The Tullow tank reminds me a bit of Brave Inca. Roll on March.
                  His rival it seems, had broken his dreams,By stealing the girl of his fancy.Her name was Magill, and she called herself Lil,But everyone knew her as Nancy.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Gary Nutting Ante Post (ATR) - Champion Hurdle

                    OUR CONOR last year was the most impressive Triumph Hurdle winner I've seen for a very long time and has shown enough despite two defeats by Hurricane Fly this season to suggest he can dethrone the dual champion.

                    Dessie Hughes is convinced we will see a different horse back at Cheltenham and I'm inclined to agree as small-field races in testing ground are not really designed to bring out the best in this Flat-bred gelding.

                    Five-year-old winners of the Champion Hurdle are rare of course - Katchit in 2008 was the most recent and See You Then was the only other in the last 30 years - but Our Conor looked exceptional last season and has the potential to quickly improve past his elders.

                    His recent second to the Hurricane in the Irish Champion indicated he was coming to the boil at just the right time and I'm sure Hughes will have kept a fair bit in reserve for fear of asking too much too soon of a young horse, especially in winter conditions.

                    Although put in his place on the run-in, it was hard not to be impressed with the way Our Conor jumped and travelled at Leopardstown where he was the last off the bridle.

                    Assuming better ground at Cheltenham (more on that later) and the usual stronger pace, his quick, efficient hurdling and high cruising speed are going to be extremely potent weapons against the ageing champion.

                    ASSUMING BETTER GROUND AT CHELTENHAM AND THE USUAL STRONGER PACE, HIS QUICK, EFFICIENT HURDLING AND HIGH CRUISING SPEED ARE GOING TO BE EXTREMELY POTENT WEAPONS AGAINST THE AGEING CHAMPION.

                    That said, Hurricane Fly is no ordinary ten-year-old and given that Sea Pigeon won the second of his two titles at the age of 11 back in 1981, the precedent is there for him to add to his incredible big-race haul.

                    The winner of 19 Grade 1s defied the sceptics, myself included, when regaining his crown from Rock On Ruby last year and fully deserves his place among the all-time greats.

                    There was a point in that race though where things didn't look overly promising as he briefly got outpaced and with all due respects to the placed horses that day, he might find a free-flowing Our Conor harder to peg back.

                    The New One, last year's impressive Neptune winner, is challenging Willie Mullins' star for favouritism in most lists despite losing his unbeaten record for the season to My Tent Or Yours in the Christmas Hurdle.

                    A last-flight mistake was possibly the difference between losing and winning that day, but on that evidence there's not a great deal between the pair and you could argue the latter is relative value at 5-1.

                    For the real value though, I'm suggesting a small each-way saver on MELODIC RENDEZVOUS, whose current top price of 40-1 could prove a bit of a steal if the ground comes up testing, which is not beyond the realms of possibility after this wettest of winters.

                    Jeremy Scott's eight-year-old, forced to miss Cheltenham last year, clearly wasn't himself when only fifth to My Tent Or Yours in the Fighting Fifth (reportedly pulled a muscle) but bounced back to his best in the Haydock trial, impressing against decent yardstick Ptit Zig.

                    His seasonal debut win at Wincanton under top weight showed he doesn't necessarily need a bog to put up a smart performance so even on good to soft ground (the quickest it's 'allowed' to be on the opening day of the Festival) he'd be a fair place bet at those sort of odds.

                    Un De Sceaux clearly revels in the mud and belongs in the 'could be anything' category but is unproven in Graded company, while another of Hurricane Fly's unbeaten stablemates Annie Power is a risky ante-post proposition until her festival target has been confirmed (she's a shorter price for both the Mares' and World Hurdle).

                    GARY'S RECOMMENDED BETS

                    STAN JAMES CHAMPION HURDLE (TUESDAY 11 MARCH)

                    3pts win OUR CONOR (11-2 bet365, Paddy Power, Skybet)
                    0.5pt each-way MELODIC RENDEZVOUS (40-1 Stan James, 33-1 Coral)

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Gary Nutting (ATR) - Ante Post - Supreme Novices

                      Every now and then a class act from the Flat makes the transition to hurdling look so easy that you can't help thinking it's going to make a big impact in its new career.

                      That was the distinct feeling I got from watching FIRST MOHICAN score with plenty of authority on his jumping debut at Doncaster, which makes the 20-1 for the Supreme hard to resist given it's his only stated aim at the Festival.

                      Rated 108 after winning a hot handicap for Henry Cecil at the Dante meeting on only his fifth start last May, the gelding looked as though he'd been jumping hurdles all his life as he engaged cruise control for much of the Doncaster race.

                      As a result he took Robert Thornton to the front earlier than he wanted, but the good thing is he knuckled down when

                      push came to shove approaching the last and won cosily despite idling on the run-in.

                      The slightly awkward head carriage he displayed in the closing stages might worry the purists, but I wouldn't blame any ex-Flat horse for registering some sort of disapproval at the type of conditions they're having to cope with this winter.

                      Besides he had every opportunity to chuck it in if he didn't fancy it given that it's a long way home up the straight at Town Moor on holding ground, especially for a horse that had tanked its way through the race.

                      A stronger pace against classier opposition looks sure to bring out the best in the six-year-old and it was noticeable how both Thornton and Alan King were adamant there's lots more improvement to come.

                      Quite why some bookmakers didn't trim the price they were quoting before he'd jumped a hurdle in public is baffling to say the least. Whatever, 20s now strikes me as good value given that he was a top-priced 25s, with just one firm, a week before his 'debut'.

                      King wasted no time in nominating the Dovecote at Kempton as his next target and victory there - the speed track should play very much to his strengths - will surely see him down to single-figure odds.

                      In a market shaped by so much soft/heavy-ground form, Irving is the one I respect most among those further up the betting.

                      Paul Nicholls' gelding was also recruited from the Flat - he was a Listed-class performer in Germany - and after winning his first two hurdling starts on better ground, he showed deeper conditions hold no terrors for him with an impressive success at Ascot just before Christmas.

                      The decision to bypass the Betfair Hurdle, for which he had been favourite, is probably a good one given that novice winners of the Newbury handicap don't have much of a record when it comes to following up at Cheltenham.

                      The Irish challenge is headed by The Tullow Tank, whose price reflects the fact he's won two Grade 1s in fairly taking style. We should know more about his prospects after he's run in the Deloitte at Leopardstown this weekend.

                      That race is also on the agenda for Vatour, his main market rival, but Willie Mullins' block entries and reluctance to commit to targets this far in advance make his horses hard to back with good money until the non-runner-money-back stage.

                      GARY'S RECOMMENDED BETS

                      SKY BET SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE (TUESDAY 11 MARCH)

                      2pts each-way FIRST MOHICAN (20-1 Boylesports, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power)

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Originally posted by Gimmeabreak
                        Supreme Novice

                        The Tullow Tank an absurd price and well made for this race - still plenty of meat on the bone at his price of 12/1. My current bet is 14/1
                        Ran a strange race today. Better off going for the Neptune?
                        "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                        Comment


                          #13
                          I was very impressed with Vautaur, kinda surprised he's still 6/1. No real excuses for TTT and he was pulling further clear of him at the finish

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Originally posted by HiCloy View Post
                            I was very impressed with Vautaur, kinda surprised he's still 6/1. No real excuses for TTT and he was pulling further clear of him at the finish
                            Pretty much perfect spin for him today.

                            Awful tactics from every other jockey.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              The Tullow Tank doesn't go now. Fair play to Barry for pulling him.
                              Last edited by The Situation; 20-02-14, 12:33.
                              Profit before people.

                              Comment


                                #16
                                Barry Connell has gone up in my estimation. Contrast his actions with the statement issued by Gigginstown earlier in the week.

                                Comment


                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by The Situation View Post
                                  The Tullow Tank doesn't go now. Fair play to Barry for pulling him.
                                  2nd biggest antepost bet Let's hope Faugheen does the business.

                                  Comment


                                    #18
                                    Alot of firms are refunding money on TTT

                                    Comment


                                      #19
                                      Ya saw that after, not fully relieved yet though as I placed bet with independent chain.

                                      Comment


                                        #20
                                        Going to a preview night in The Goat this eve, panel is Barry Geraghty/Tony Martin/Kevin ORyan/Patrick Mullins.

                                        Will try post up anything worth noting tomorrow.

                                        On the topic of preview nights thought this was a good piece on them- http://www.bettrends.co.uk/2014/02/2...ening-circuit/

                                        Comment


                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by NoRiverRequired View Post
                                          Going to a preview night in The Goat this eve, panel is Barry Geraghty/Tony Martin/Kevin ORyan/Patrick Mullins.

                                          Will try post up anything worth noting tomorrow.
                                          Decent crowd turned up for this one, Kevin O Ryan led the panel and did a very good job. Interesting opinions but nothing too revealing.
                                          Good bit of craic with Tony Martin getting plenty of slagging from the panel.Generally the room was rolling their eyes to heaven every time he mentioned anything about his own horses or plans for the festival, you just couldn't take him for his word.

                                          I see someone on twitter has put up a summary of the panels comments so ive spoilered it below if anyone's interested.

                                          SPOILER
                                          Report from The Goat via @rossmoyno7

                                          The Goat Cheltenham Preview Night

                                          Panel

                                          Kevin O' Ryan (KOR) - ATR
                                          Patrick Mullins (PM)- Jockey
                                          Tony Martin (TM)- Trainer
                                          Barry Geraghty (BJG) - Jockey



                                          Supreme Novices

                                          PM: Ruby likely to attempt similar tactics to last year in the opener on Vatour. Wicklow Brave the better bet at 9s will be in first three.

                                          BJG: Vautour far too short, had the run of the race the last day. Josses Hill good EW chance as does Western Boy in a weak Supreme.

                                          TM: Tony goes for Josses Hill. Tony Martin has a gut feeling re Irving 'Just doesn't like him'

                                          General consensus is Vautour far too short, doubts re Irving's stamina.


                                          Neptune/Albert Bartlett

                                          PM: Backed Briar Hill for Neptune but looks a losing bet now. Faugheen = ✈️✈️ Reckon Faugheen is a deal better than Rathvinden. PM says they will be very disappointed if Faugheen is beat. Faster pace will bring improvement in jumping department. PM reckons Briar would win any of the three novice hurdles, his banker.

                                          BJG: Faugheen will take beating in Neptune. Would be confident of Rathvinden reversing form with Red Sherlock given better ground. In the Albert Bartlett says Captain Cutter may struggle, Briar is the one to have on side.

                                          TM: Very sweet on Rathvinden for Neptune if he goes, big field will suit, under the radar, appreciate better ground. Upset Faugheen!

                                          Triumph Hurdle

                                          BJG: hoping Royal Irish Hussar can return to form and good EW bet at big prices. La Rocher the one to beat, best horse Nick Williams has.

                                          PM: The Triumph is the perfect opportunity to go get a cup of tea, hates it. For poor flat horses.
                                          Paddy surprised if Abbysial runs in Triumoh, hopes he doesn't, one for the future, maybe Punchestown.

                                          TM: A big fan of Le Rocher also, Nick Williams a very underrated trainer. Says PM wouldn't mind his daddy buying this one haha

                                          Arkle/ JLT

                                          PM: Champ Fever hasn't had the ideal prep, loves Cheltenham but Trifolium the one to beat, very impressive. Rock on Ruby has been broken by Hurricane Fly much like Peddlers Cross.
                                          Good ground would bring out the best in Felix come the JLT, Djackadam may not go, do not back until see him line up.

                                          BJG: Oscar Whiskey has surprised him, jumps brilliantly. Fatter than anything first time out when beaten. Rock solid. One to beat.Thought Grandouet would win the Arkle at the start of the season, disappointed but still a chance. Champagne Fever vulnerable.Grandouet now under the radar for Barry, big shout at big price.


                                          TM: says they've made a balls of Ted Veale's campaign , ( RM adds wouldn't trust a word out of his mouth. Won't give us anything )

                                          RSA


                                          BJG: reckons Balleycasey one to beat in RSA, caught his eye. Will probably ride O'Faolins with a little chance.

                                          PM: says massive performance from Balleycasey last time out. Like driving a Rolls Royce.Ballycasey was bought as a Gold Cup horse and that's the plan long term.

                                          World Hurdle

                                          PM: Willie won't make the decision re Annie till last minute though reckon that the World looks the best option for Annie. Big Bucks the vulnerable Fav out of the three races ( CHampion Hurdle. Mares, World Hurdle). No problem re 3m.

                                          BJG : At Fishers could improve. Likes More of That too he went by b4 him very easily with a great turn of foot. Dark one. Big Bucks of old could have been ridden anyway and won the last day just watch the race, beaten fair and square, not very unfit. Barry firmly says Big Bucks will not win the World Hurdle, was fit last time out, 95% at least.

                                          TM: Would run Annie against Quevega, wouldn't subject her to 3m at Cheltenham. While future ahead of her, big ask.

                                          Open world hurdle for all, Big Bucks opposable.

                                          Mala Beach a cheeky outsider for KOR.

                                          Champion Hurdle

                                          RM One of the lads just had a sly word with Barry. Hopes to ride Jezki in the champion.

                                          PM : Will not bare his arse if Hurricane gets beat. All great with the Fly, knows where the winning line is, aggression sets him apart. A true champion. Age the only concern put stronger than ever after this Summer. Good as ever if not better. Potential versus Proven in the Champion. Most worried about The New One. If Champagne beats MTOY over 2mile, so does the Fly. Willie leaning away from Champion for Un De Sceaux. PM says Dads placed him fantastically. Admits that the Fly is the one the Mullins camp want the most to win 'He's always been the one'

                                          BJG: waiting for the phone call re Jezki. If Fly turns up like the last day he won't be beaten but not convinced will hold form at Cheltenham. Our Conor strolls around Cheltenham like Larry the Lamb says Barry, one I give Fly most to so. Jezki better than this season too at 10/1.MTOY had The New One covered at Kempton. The New One might be forced to make it come Cheltenham, not ideal. Says key to Jezki is getting him to switch off, doesn't seea convinced should make it like AP McCoy has been saying.

                                          TM : has it between Our Conor and The New One, Hurricane well beatable at his age.

                                          Queen Mother Champion Chase:

                                          BJG: disappointed about Sprinter Sacre but he's in one piece that's the main thing, he's the best he's ridden. Kid Casiddy the EW value for Barry, Sizing Europe looks to be fading in his old age. Maybe if Henry can work a miracle.

                                          TM: says heavy ground Benefficent goes QMCC, yielding he goes RyanAir Tony actually keen to go RyanAir with Benificient, thinks he has a right chance in this race. Tony not mad on Sire de Grugy, Arvika a majestic horse he says but can't put it together. Aeroplane if puts it together.

                                          RM: Panel joking re Barry getting on Bennificient. Literally can't ever tell if Tony Martin is telling the truth

                                          PM: would avoid the QMCC, concerns re Arvika's jumping left handed.

                                          Gold Cup

                                          BJG: Haydock was too sharp for Bobs Worth and wasn't fit enough. Leop far more his cup of tea.
                                          Better the ground the better the chance for Bobs. Softer ground plays to Last Instalment and he's the one he fears most. If Last Instalment hadn't have missed last season, he could have been last years Gold Cup winner. As far as the rest of them, Barry reckons he has Silvi, Cue Card etc covered. Silvi was bollocksed when fell last year.

                                          PM: Bobs Worth will take the beating, reckons this is the best horse Barry is riding, not Sacre. Thought they'd win with SDC last year.

                                          ( My note PM cant get over saying Sprinter Sacre was lay of the festival in 2012

                                          TM: Last Instalment is a PROPER HORSE, comparing to all time greats.

                                          Bumper

                                          PM: all bumper horses very different, Hard to split but he's likes Black Hercules the most. Temperament huge asset. Wants to ride Black Hercules as things stand.

                                          TM: Golantilla emptied yesterday, little short and PM gave winner great ride. Needed the run and wouldn't write him off 'if he turns up'. Golantilla won't go unless he's 100% happy and if he does go he would be disappointed if didn't place

                                          Other races

                                          TM: very sweet on Living Next Door he says, disappointed if not in first three wherever he goes. Entered in everything, likes him.

                                          PM: likely to ride Suntiep in the four miler. Noble Inn in the Fred Winter worth keeping an eye on Paddy says too.

                                          PM says Mossey Joe runs within a stone of best he wins, he turns up he wins. BJG warns ground key, needs better ground.

                                          Charity Bets

                                          TM: Living Next Door.
                                          BJG : Josses Hill and More of That.
                                          PM: Briar Hill.
                                          KOR: Tiger Roll.

                                          Comment


                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by Gimmeabreak
                                            Nice to see that BJG put him forward as half of his charity bet last night - in favour of Bobs Worth et al.
                                            Ya he was quite sweet on him for the race. Wasn't mad about Vautour, reckoned he had it all his own way in the Deloitte but wouldn't get the same race in Supreme.

                                            Comment


                                              #23
                                              Chelt preview at Exeter


                                              SPOILER
                                              Tonight saw the annual Cheltenham preview evening at Exeter Racecourse with guests including trainers Paul Nicholls, David Pipe and Phillip Hobbs, jockey Nick Scholfield and Racing Post reporter Andrew King.

                                              TUESDAY SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE.

                                              Andrew King: Vautour is a very smart house who comes into race well. Irving has done little wrong and I think at the moment is each way value.

                                              Paul Nicholls: (on Irving) I hope he can win. He is four from six on the flat and three from three in jumps and is in good shape. A fast run race would suit him better.

                                              Nick Scholfield: The horse with the best English form is Irving, who has done nothing wrong. The horse is better on better ground but has won on soft ground before.

                                              David Pipe: (on The Liquidator) He is back on good form. You could call him the forgotten horse. He has had one bad run but was vying for favouritism before that. If we can get him back to his best he will have a chance.

                                              Wicklow Brave needs to brush up on his jumping and I have a sneaky feeling the top two (Irving and Vautour) will take all the beating.

                                              Phillip Hobbs: Vautour looks very good but Irving offers better each way value.

                                              ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY:

                                              Paul Nicholls: Hinterland would like to see it dry out. He is still in the Champion Chase and we will see what the ground does. But Hinterland and Dodging Bullets are both in good order. I am thrilled with Dodging Bullets.

                                              Andrew King: I think Rock on Ruby has a sound chance if the ground dries out.

                                              Nick Schofield: Champagne Fever is much better if he gets an easy lead. If he gets taken on that might let him down. I have been impressed by Valdez and he might offer good each way value.

                                              David Pipe: I think Champagne Fever will take all the beating. Valdez gave a good performance at Doncaster, can travel and has an each way chance but Champagne Fever is the one for me.

                                              Phillip Hobbs: Champagne Fever has won twice previously at the festival and can come back and do it again.

                                              CHAMPION HURDLE

                                              Andrew King: The obvious is Hurricane Fly but I have always thought the Our Connor has been trained with one race only in mind and will be better than ever on faster ground if it dries out. I don’t think My Tent Or Yours or The New One is good enough to compete with these. If Annie Power shows up that could change everything but for me it is Hurricane Fly or Our Connor.

                                              David Pipe: Even though Hurricane Fly is not getting any younger, I am not convinced My Tent Or Yours will get up the hill so I will go with Hurricane Fly.

                                              Nick Schofield: (On Melodic Rendezvous) He has no pressure going into the race and deserves his chance. It will be a very tactical race with no real pace.

                                              Phillip Hobbs and Paul Nicholls both said The New One had a decent chance.

                                              WEDNESDAY

                                              NEPTUNE NOVICES’ HURDLE

                                              David Pipe: I have been very impressed with Faugheen. But Red Sherlock has done nothing wrong and will run a massive race. The betting is right and Faugheen is the one to beat. (On Un Temps Pour Tout) Whichever race he goes in he will have a good chance.

                                              Phillip Hobbs: Champagne West is only in the Neptune if the ground comes up heavy.

                                              Paul Nicholls: We will probably aim Port Melon at the three miler.

                                              Andrew King: I have been very impressed with Red Sherlock in his bumpers and hurdles so far and he will take all the beating. He has a massive chance in this race and is going to be a top class horse.

                                              RSA CHASE

                                              David Pipe: It looks an open RSA if not the best. But it is not easy. I might still be taking a chance with Gevrey Chambertin. He is a good horse on his day and I am inclined to take the chance.

                                              Paul Nicholls: Sam Winner can reverse the form with Smad Place and better ground will suit. The quicker they go the better and he has got a great chance.

                                              Nick Scholfield: There is not much between Sam Winner and Smad Place but SW is a much bigger price.

                                              QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE:

                                              David Pipe: Sprinter Sacre is a concern but hopefully they have had time to put him right. The race is all around this house but I would expect him to get him back and probably win.

                                              Phillip Hobbs: Sprinter Sacre is a fantastic horse if he is right. Sire De Grugy is in decent form but I cannot see him beating Sprinter Sacre if he turns up.

                                              Andrew King: I am very interested in Benefficient. He is a very nice horse and if Sprinter Sacre does not run I think they might try him in this. Personally I don’t think Sprinter Sacre will get there.

                                              Paul Nicholls I think Nicky is sounding a bit negative with Sprinter Sacre saying they will make a decision in the next ten days. They won’t really know until they race him though. It just seemed a little negative. If he is back in good form we might take him on with Hinterland. If he turned up we might be positive and have a crack with him.

                                              THURSDAY:

                                              JLT NOVICES’ CHASE (FORMERLY JEWSON)

                                              Paul Nicholls: Wonderful Charm goes well fresh and was three from four over fences in the Autumn. He is in good shape but would not want the ground too soft. Vukovar is a decent horse but Wonderful Charm has shown enough to be the one to beat.

                                              Nick Scholfield also liked Wonderful Charm: If he gets ground he will be very hard to beat.

                                              David Pipe: Vukovar is the one I will go for in that race.

                                              Andrew King: Taquin Du Seuil has a good each way chance. He will stay on up the hill.

                                              RYANAIR CHASE

                                              David Pipe: If Sprinter Sacre does not turn up for the Champion Chase it will take a lot of horses away from the Ryanair. With Dynaste we are keeping the options open. He has not been right for a long time but is in great form at present. If he continues we will get him to Cheltenham in top form. We will leave it late to see what happens with Sprinter Sacre and the ground.

                                              Paul Nicholls: The Ryanair for Al Ferof was always my A-plan. He ran very well in the King George but does not stay. This is the obvious race for him and the ideal race for him. Wishfull Thinking could be the one to beat. I would run Cue Card in the Ryanair. He is not going to get three and a half miles at Cheltenham in an end to end gallop in the Gold Cup. If he is in the Ryanair he is a favourite and hard to beat.

                                              Phillip Hobbs said: I am more likely to run Menorah. Wishfull Thinking might end up in the Byrne Group Plate. Cue Card has a big chance in the Ryanair but won’t win the Gold Cup.

                                              Andrew King: Dynaste.

                                              WORLD HURDLE

                                              Paul Nicholls: Big Bucks has got as good a chance as any other time he has been in the race. He needed his previous run and it was on very heavy ground that we would not normally run him in. But we had to go somewhere with him and he has tightened up since then. He must have a leading chance.

                                              Phillip Hobbs: Big Bucks has been a fantastic horse for so long and must have a good chance.

                                              Andrew King: I had reservations about his comeback run. But seeing the way he was today (in a racecourse gallop at Exeter) he looked back to his best and will take all the beating. He looked a picture and still got such quality.

                                              David Pipe: I hope Annie Power does turn up as it will make it a great race for everyone to watch.

                                              FRIDAY:

                                              JCB TRIUMPH HURDLE

                                              Paul Nicholls: I am confident of a big run from Calipto but he prefers softer ground.

                                              ALBERT BARTLETT David Pipe: King’s Palace has done nothing wrong, handles the track, stays well and is in ground form. All roads lead to the Albert Bartlett. Briar Hill is the main danger but I don’t fancy Captain Cutter.

                                              Andrew King: Kings Palace is a very nice young horse and is the obvious choice in the race. He is got to go close but I would not take 3/1.

                                              GOLD CUP

                                              Paul Nicholls: Silviniaco Conti is stronger than last year and stays as we saw at Kempton. He was travelling extremely well and I have never had any doubt he can stay up that hill. He will need a bit of luck in running but is in very good shape.

                                              Phillip Hobbs: Captain Chris will run. That is the plan. He is not as good left handed but has won the Arkle and a novice hurdle at Cheltenham. There is no other race to run him in. We have nothing to lose by running.

                                              David Pipe: It looks a strong renewal and Bob’s Worth will take all the beating. He is not flashy but is workmanlike. Silviniaco Conti has got a great chance but Bob’s Worth will take all the beating,

                                              Nick Scholfield: Silviniaco Conti looked really fresh and well today (in the Exeter gallop) and Noel struggled to hold him. Harry Topper could be a good each way bet. At 20/1 he may run into a place.

                                              Andrew King: Silviniaco Conti is one of the best bets of the meeting.

                                              Handicap choices

                                              Phillip Hobbs: Fingal Bay in the Pertemps. Paul Nicholls: Far West in the Coral Cup David Pipe: Edmund Kean in the Kim Muir. Nick Scholfield: Regal Encore in the Coral Cup. Andrew King: Cheltenian in the County Hurdle.

                                              Comment


                                                #24
                                                Paddy Power Day 1 offer this year is going to be money back if your horse finishes 2nd/3rd/4th in the Supreme.

                                                Announcing it tomorrow apparently.

                                                Comment


                                                  #25
                                                  Crap offer compared to past years.
                                                  Originally posted by ArmaniJeans
                                                  I like this heat - some proper music innit.
                                                  None of the 'black disabled lesbian warbling backwards' stuff that the other players inflicted on me.

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                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by Starvin Marvin View Post
                                                    Crap offer compared to past years.
                                                    If that's the actual offer and doesn't involve finishing 2nd-4th behind the starting fav it's brilliant.
                                                    Profit before people.

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                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by The Situation View Post
                                                      If that's the actual offer and doesn't involve finishing 2nd-4th behind the starting fav it's brilliant.
                                                      It's far worse than any of the past few years.

                                                      Money back all runners if a certain horse wins a race is much better.
                                                      Originally posted by ArmaniJeans
                                                      I like this heat - some proper music innit.
                                                      None of the 'black disabled lesbian warbling backwards' stuff that the other players inflicted on me.

                                                      Comment


                                                        #28
                                                        That's a pretty amazing offer imo.

                                                        It's a shame William Hill don't sponsor the race any more though

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                                                          #29
                                                          Great offer. Might have a bet in the supreme now
                                                          His rival it seems, had broken his dreams,By stealing the girl of his fancy.Her name was Magill, and she called herself Lil,But everyone knew her as Nancy.

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                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by Starvin Marvin View Post
                                                            It's far worse than any of the past few years.

                                                            Money back all runners if a certain horse wins a race is much better.
                                                            You'll be able to create an unbelievable book by backing them with PP with that offer and laying in the place.
                                                            Profit before people.

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                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by Gimmeabreak
                                                              no its not
                                                              How so?
                                                              So you can make better profits off this offer than last years?

                                                              Originally posted by The Situation View Post
                                                              You'll be able to create an unbelievable book by backing them with PP with that offer and laying in the place.
                                                              Care to go into more detail?
                                                              Originally posted by ArmaniJeans
                                                              I like this heat - some proper music innit.
                                                              None of the 'black disabled lesbian warbling backwards' stuff that the other players inflicted on me.

                                                              Comment


                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by Starvin Marvin View Post

                                                                Care to go into more detail?
                                                                Ok take backing Irving for example, say we want €100 @5/2, ordinarily that means your book looks like

                                                                Irving wins = €250 profit
                                                                Doesn't win -€100

                                                                If you back him with this supposed offer for that amount and then lay him in the 4 place place market where he'd be ~1.5. So say lay for a liability of €50 at 1.5 ( which wins you €100 if he fails to place).

                                                                Your book then looks like

                                                                Irving wins- 250-50= €200 profit
                                                                Irving 2nd, 3rd, 4th= -50
                                                                Irving anywhere else= break even*.



                                                                *Suppose should minus commission but betdaq are commission free on the first race every day so you know that makes sense.
                                                                Profit before people.

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                                                                  #33
                                                                  Max €50, makes things difficult.

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                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by NewApproach View Post
                                                                    Max €50, makes things difficult.
                                                                    Just means plenty of walking! Its a cracking offer still.

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                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by The Situation View Post
                                                                      Ok take backing Irving for example, say we want €100 @5/2, ordinarily that means your book looks like

                                                                      Irving wins = €250 profit
                                                                      Doesn't win -€100

                                                                      If you back him with this supposed offer for that amount and then lay him in the 4 place place market where he'd be ~1.5. So say lay for a liability of €50 at 1.5 ( which wins you €100 if he fails to place).

                                                                      Your book then looks like

                                                                      Irving wins- 250-50= €200 profit
                                                                      Irving 2nd, 3rd, 4th= -50
                                                                      Irving anywhere else= break even*.



                                                                      *Suppose should minus commission but betdaq are commission free on the first race every day so you know that makes sense.
                                                                      That looks pretty crap to me.

                                                                      So if he doesnt win but is anyway decent in 2nd-4th you lose half your win stake.

                                                                      Be better just letting the powers bet ride than that.

                                                                      Last year you could just dutch the field and then cover HF as well if you wanted for guaranteed profit.

                                                                      Think it was 250 ish for every 1k you put on at the prices I got.
                                                                      Im failing to see how this years offer is comparable?
                                                                      Originally posted by ArmaniJeans
                                                                      I like this heat - some proper music innit.
                                                                      None of the 'black disabled lesbian warbling backwards' stuff that the other players inflicted on me.

                                                                      Comment


                                                                        #36
                                                                        Originally posted by Starvin Marvin View Post
                                                                        That looks pretty crap to me.

                                                                        So if he doesnt win but is anyway decent in 2nd-4th you lose half your win stake.

                                                                        Be better just letting the powers bet ride than that.

                                                                        Last year you could just dutch the field and then cover HF as well if you wanted for guaranteed profit.

                                                                        Think it was 250 ish for every 1k you put on at the prices I got.
                                                                        Im failing to see how this years offer is comparable?
                                                                        I mean you can mess around with it and guarantee profit if you like:

                                                                        Say after backing 100@ 5/2 with pp you then lay half the stake in the win market.

                                                                        Irving is currently 3.95 to lay so a €50 stake will cost us 147.50 if he wins which has this effect on the initial position


                                                                        1st: 250>>>(-147.5)>>>€102.5

                                                                        2/3/4: €0>>>(+50)>>>>€50

                                                                        Nowhere: -€100>>>(+50)>>> -€50


                                                                        We can now like in the previous post lay in the place market to green up completely which would have the following affect:

                                                                        1st: 102.5>>>(-25)>>> €77.5
                                                                        2-4: 50>>>(-25)>>> €25
                                                                        NW: -50>>>(+50)>>> 0

                                                                        If you back for 1k you're then looking at freerolling €775.0 on the win and €250 on the place.
                                                                        Last edited by The Situation; 27-02-14, 01:42.
                                                                        Profit before people.

                                                                        Comment


                                                                          #37
                                                                          Now I see, thanks a lot.
                                                                          Originally posted by ArmaniJeans
                                                                          I like this heat - some proper music innit.
                                                                          None of the 'black disabled lesbian warbling backwards' stuff that the other players inflicted on me.

                                                                          Comment


                                                                            #38
                                                                            Are all firms nrnb at this stage given willies quote today

                                                                            Mullins said: "All being well, and if everything goes right, Ruby will probably ride Hurricane Fly in the Champion, Quevega in the mares' race and Annie Power in the stayers' (World Hurdle).

                                                                            "We've had a good chat with the owners and at that the moment that's the way it looks, they are all happy on that score."

                                                                            see on oc that most firms still have her priced up for the ch.
                                                                            Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                              #39
                                                                              Originally posted by Starvin Marvin View Post
                                                                              It's far worse than any of the past few years.

                                                                              Money back all runners if a certain horse wins a race is much better.
                                                                              Originally posted by Gimmeabreak
                                                                              no its not
                                                                              Anyway ive worked it out and seen other people do it its nowhere near possible to get the same return guaranteed as last year.

                                                                              Last years offer was much better.
                                                                              Originally posted by ArmaniJeans
                                                                              I like this heat - some proper music innit.
                                                                              None of the 'black disabled lesbian warbling backwards' stuff that the other players inflicted on me.

                                                                              Comment


                                                                                #40
                                                                                OC being offered at 7/1 in Sean Grahams shops today for any of our Northern Bretheren.
                                                                                This may or may not be an original thought of my own.
                                                                                All efforts were made to make this thought original but with the abundance of thoughts in the world the originality of this thought cannot be guaranteed.
                                                                                The author is not liable for any issue arising from the platitudinous nature of this post.

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                                                                                  #41
                                                                                  Just had my first bet.

                                                                                  Our Conor, Faugheen, Annie Power and Silviniaco Conti. €5 accum, returns just over €1k on Boyles.

                                                                                  Sit back and count monies at end.

                                                                                  And the lol it's only money bet.

                                                                                  Josses Hill, Captain Conan, Golantilla and Felix Yonger. €5 accum returns over €30k.
                                                                                  Last edited by Lplate; 04-03-14, 12:58.

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                                                                                    #42
                                                                                    drift on MTOY and Jetski shortening
                                                                                    Last edited by nicnicnic; 04-03-14, 13:23.

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                                                                                      #43
                                                                                      Noel, whats your assessment of Wilde Blue Yonder? Obviously we have a mutual acquaintance who has a stake but wondering what your thoughts are on him.

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                                                                                        #44
                                                                                        This time next week
                                                                                        Turning millions into thousands

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                                                                                          #45
                                                                                          Any breakfast/dinner/pub recommendations for Chelt?

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                                                                                            #46
                                                                                            Originally posted by HiCloy View Post
                                                                                            Any breakfast/dinner/pub recommendations for Chelt?
                                                                                            If you're down Killarney way, Corkery's is the place. Memorable last year, coming to the last in the Triumph the whole place held their breath. Over the last, a mini-earthquake was reported in the town.

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                                                                                              #47
                                                                                              Originally posted by Strewelpeter View Post
                                                                                              This time next week
                                                                                              JJ still going in Mares Hurdle I presume. What are your thoughts on the race?

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                                                                                                #48
                                                                                                In the supreme I have gone for the liquidator, latest from pipe yard is they are in rush to get him ready but are happy with him (ambigous to say the least) I am very happy to take the 20/1 NRNB on pp.
                                                                                                The problem lies in, he is entered in two races and is priced shorter in the other. I dont want to do all that walking to shops to find he is a non runner.
                                                                                                I believe that if he runs true to form as opposed to last race at Kempton, a place is certain, only because there could be a superstar in the race also.
                                                                                                This is a tough little horse who loves chelt with a fourth in bumper last year behind the ultra impressive briar hill, he is out of a hurdler and chaser so will improve.

                                                                                                I am certain of at least place if he runs true, just the problem lies in pp offer which offer refunds if he places on win bets.

                                                                                                Any thoughts on how to exploit this as much as possible?
                                                                                                Last edited by poprock; 05-03-14, 15:08.

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                                                                                                  #49
                                                                                                  Faugheen is the Pont Alexandre of last year, be warned.

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                                                                                                    #50
                                                                                                    Originally posted by Gimmeabreak
                                                                                                    somebody told me that Ladborkes were going money back on losing champion hurdle bets in The Fly finished 1st or 2nd?

                                                                                                    I can not find that on their website anywhere - anybody know of this?
                                                                                                    i saw it flash up on a screen yesterday in a shop so I,d imagine its a shop special.

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                                                                                                      #51
                                                                                                      Originally posted by Gimmeabreak
                                                                                                      Some offer if that's the case. I was told €500 per shop but that sounds like lunacy.
                                                                                                      I'm almost certain it's 50, going to my local to check it out shortly.
                                                                                                      Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

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                                                                                                        #52
                                                                                                        Money back as a free bet, it was on there twitter, in shop, online and mobile

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                                                                                                          #53
                                                                                                          It's €25 per shop, and it's just a free bet to that value rather than cash back.

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                                                                                                            #54

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                                                                                                              #55
                                                                                                              Is this it?

                                                                                                              SPOILER



                                                                                                              Hurricane Fly Champion Hurdle money back special

                                                                                                              Champion Hurdle – Cheltenham Festival – Tuesday 11th March
                                                                                                              If Hurricane Fly finishes first or second in the Champion Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, Ladbrokes will refund all losing single bets on that race, as a free bet, up to £/€25. Applies to Ladbrokes Mobile customers only.
                                                                                                              Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                                                                #56
                                                                                                                Originally posted by Dice75 View Post
                                                                                                                JJ still going in Mares Hurdle I presume. What are your thoughts on the race?
                                                                                                                The pic is from after a gallop up the Curragh yesterday, she went really well and Ian came off her beaming from ear to ear in awe of how good she feels.

                                                                                                                My thoughts... Which ones would you prefer the semi rational ones I struggle to hold on to or the 4AM ones that have seen just about every possible scenario?
                                                                                                                Last nights version involved Jennies outstaying the fav to the line but with Ruby doing some amatuer dramatics standing up in the saddle when he's beat safe and sure in the knowledge the stewards would give it to him, obv

                                                                                                                Anyway, meanwhile in real life some people were trying to make the case that she was better going in the Coral but...

                                                                                                                The Mares race is a Grade 2 that in the last few years hasn't played as deep as many of the races she has been running well in.

                                                                                                                Quevega is Grendels Mother, she doesn't ever look like being beaten but there are a couple of things that give me pause to think. If you look at the last two years she has had to do little more than turn up to win. You could argue that she ran to about 135 last year and only 125 the year before but of course she can only beat what is entered but there is little doubt that she has shown far superior form in her Punchestown run than at Cheltenham. Age catches up with us all and that is as true for her and Ruby as it is for the rest of us.
                                                                                                                The real Quevega will either turn up and destroy the field once again or she won't, this year though she is going to need to turn in a true 145+ performance to deliver.

                                                                                                                The French horse, Down ace and Elliot's Layla Jane all on the upgrade and could be anything. Cockney sparrow, Mickie, L'unique, Mischievous Millie and a couple of the other English mares are hard to separate and any one of them has the ability to turn up a big performance on the day. I see the big dangers as being Glens Melody and particularly if the ground continues to dry out Cailin Annamh.

                                                                                                                I would definitely like to see more rain. She will travel on Saturday and Jarlath will be staying with friends who live at the bottom of Cleeve hill, right now he's happy with the reports of the ground he's getting from them but its a long way from here to there. Forecast is showing no more than a few bits of drizzle between now and Tuesday. Its possible she wouldn't run unless the word soft appears in the ground description.

                                                                                                                Travelling and the atmosphere and crowding at the course on the day are a real worry, Her dam famously acted the mickey and almost bucked Barry Geraghty off as she made her way onto the track in the Coral in 1999. And she has inherited more than a bit of that temperament. Luckily a major crisis was averted this week when Jarlaths daughter Aoife, who is the only person the mare will allow into her box at home, volunteered to sacrifice the tickets she has for this weekend's Beyonce gig in favour to spending her days and nights in a horsebox with Jennies

                                                                                                                I'm content to write off her last run due to her turning up a piece of work short after a small setback the week before. I don't want to anthropomorphise too much but she actually seemed disappointed, kind of annoyed with herself in the days after, there is no doubt she knows what her job is and she wants to do it.

                                                                                                                Everything we have seen of Jennies Jewel has screamed out that she will love the hill at cheltenham. She does most of her hard work on a gallops that finishes up a half a mile of steep incline.
                                                                                                                As regards the betting market I don't see a whole lot of value where they are going 1/4 3 places (WH shamefully 1/5) at a best price 25/1 Betfair layers have been considerably more generous in the win market and I keep getting sucked in to taking the 100+ that has been cropping up in the win market while I can't get matched over 9 in the place market, still 7/1 place only is not too bad.

                                                                                                                So all I can hope for its that she travels well, turns up in good form, handles the preliminaries, runs her race and comes home safe.
                                                                                                                I reckon an unbroken nights sleep between here and Tuesday would be a bit too much to hope for!

                                                                                                                One Time.
                                                                                                                Turning millions into thousands

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                                                                                                                  #57
                                                                                                                  There's a few bookies offering specials on Quevega, such as enhanced price for new a/c's and money back on all losers if she wins. Looks to me like they want to take her on.

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                                                                                                                    #58
                                                                                                                    Ruby gold,

                                                                                                                    Discussion: Supreme Novices

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                                                                                                                      #59
                                                                                                                      These were the tips from our Preveiw night in Cafe En Seine last night.

                                                                                                                      I probably back these purely because I have a list now.

                                                                                                                      Should I completely avoid any of the selections?

                                                                                                                      Naps:

                                                                                                                      Briar Hill 9/4 (Albert Bartlett)
                                                                                                                      Bobs Worth 7/4 (Gold Cup)
                                                                                                                      Quevega 4/6 (Mares’ Hurdle)

                                                                                                                      Dawalan 6/1 (Fred Winter)
                                                                                                                      First Liuetenant 5/1 (Ryanair Chase)
                                                                                                                      Rathvinden 8/1 (Neptune)
                                                                                                                      Hurricane Fly (11/4) 1st and Jezki (8/1) 2nd – Forecast (Champion Hurdle)
                                                                                                                      Trifolium 5/1 (Arkle)
                                                                                                                      Vautour 3/1 (Supreme)


                                                                                                                      Best e/w bets
                                                                                                                      Tiger Roll 12/1 (Triumph) – Everyone fancies it
                                                                                                                      Gilgamboa 12/1 (Supreme) – Everyone fancies it
                                                                                                                      Shaneshill 7/1 (Champion Bumper) – Everyone fancies it
                                                                                                                      Baily Green 8/1 (Champion Chase)
                                                                                                                      Ericht 10/1 (Novices’ Hcap Chase)
                                                                                                                      Morning Assembly 7/1 (RSA)
                                                                                                                      O’Faolains Boy 14/1 (RSA)

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                                                                                                                        #60
                                                                                                                        Heading for the cotswold in the morning, back thursday night. To say i'm excited would be an understatement.
                                                                                                                        Here's hoping Briar hill/Carlingford lough/Annie power/Fly/Quevega/Trifolium keep the week rocking.
                                                                                                                        One of my favorite horses in training Sailors warn(my sig) prob won't run in the county but really hope he does as it's tailor made for him.
                                                                                                                        Gl all.

                                                                                                                        Edit; @strewel hope JJ runs a big race for ye.
                                                                                                                        Last edited by japeye; 09-03-14, 21:04.

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