LOI Season 2013 Betting

[Semibluff]

market has corrected itself on so many bets, namely Bohs opening at 4/5 and being 11/10 now

173 derry looks attractive - they are too good for their current "Slump" I did see some 7/2 on rory patterson. Dont normally back these bets and prob wont be on this either, but really like it

honestly cant see goals in Shels/bohs (Q the 3/0) but unders looks good here

Going to persist with drogh, who are drifting. Theyre slight value at evens + DNB, but expect them to drift further

Another penchant of mine is backing limerick, last week was their first time to lose by more than 1 goal (vs pats) ob i had them +1. But against a goal shy Shams, +1 seems very good

Longford are drifting to 211 atm, 5/4 has to be a bet. Athlone like getting results vs the big boys. Norm struggle to win games, and Roddy would consider a draw a result here, so a bit tentative

Salthill, by default - are a bet every week. Would prefer 1 goal on that game. Harps away or at home, is prob the biggest home advantage in Ireland, certainly in the first Div, so thread carefully.

St pats on the drift, so much so I am happy to avoid that bet!

Presuming Mick Cooke is finished "standing by his men" - ie, the lads who started who shouldnt, then Droghs are good to go, prob with Derry. Want to see Gary O Neill start, and either Mick Daly or Gannon CM for a bit of comfort.

Quigley or Prendergast in Defence would be a bonus. Id like to say the out of sorts Sava isnt missed, but after seeing scheliringmeingerheimnamansteiman and his mistakes the other night - would be a bit fearful

What do we like?

[bohsman]

I think Bohs will win, have been up for it in the big games this season, the problem being that Callaghan would happily settle for a draw so can't see them going for it if it's level in the last 10. Agree that unders looks good.

Will be backing Drogs and Derry. Overs at 1.7 looks good as well.

[applehunter]

Drogheda about the right price now.

City all over the shop. Best player sitting the stands and manager looks lost.

[Semibluff]

Sligo to win to nil vs UCD, at 11/10 with Hills is very big. They were v unlucky not to get there vs bohs.
Have Waterf to win at 215 also, but price has shortened a lot

[bohsman]

Am on Sligo to nil. Great shouts on Salthill and Athlone, don't know what is up with Harps, 31 man squad just too big to keep people happy maybe?

[Semibluff]

Harps can have the biggest squad ever, if you only have 6 players that matter and the rest is interchangable. Dropping the boys after the 4 of them played a 5 aside tournie couldnt of bn great for team morale.
Their home advantage is the biggest in div 1 - its a hateful place to travel to, all players will say.

Add to that Salthill are the biggest under-rated team.

Id be suprised if UCD have more than 3 or 4 half chances tonight.

B365 are 25s on Shamrocks. with 10/1 the irish bookies. They are still the best team on paper, only half of the season gone and not fully convinced with St Pats or Sligo. Derry have an outside chance ( Paterson a beast) But with half the season left, this isnt the worse bet for a good sweat especially with all the top teams taking points off each other

[bohsman]

True, Pats will fall away with their European run as well. I think Sligo will come through the summer stronger with North getting back to full fitness though.

[3Bet]

the win to nil market is nowhere near as profitable as the -1 handicap for me. The only score the 'to nil' market covers that the -1 does not is 1-0 which is very unlikely to be the final score in the sligo v ucd match.

[Semibluff]

the win to nil market is nowhere near as profitable as the -1 handicap for me. The only score the 'to nil' market covers that the -1 does not is 1-0 which is very unlikely to be the final score in the sligo v ucd match.

same could be said looking at bohs vs sligo last week
but sligo hit post twice and had 1 off the line, ending 0-0. I can see sligo winning, theyve not been totally free flowing with goals recently. UCD are the worse (after shels) for creating chances and are normally just when gifted to them. Doubt Sligo will allow this, esp as they will have so much of the ball also.

we're getting 11/10 on the win to nil, but -1.5 is 4/6ish

[Semibluff]

1-0 ucd after 3 mins - lol!

[bohsman]

Derry with whatever handicap you want, Bohs with loads of injuries and rumoured to be some infighting in camp aswell.

[MMA Ace]

With Dublin beating Kilkenny today I think I should point out the last time Dublin won the Leinster Senior Hurling Championship St. Pat's won the FAI cup. Hopefully 2 jinxes will be broken this year

[Semibluff]

Drogs are playing malmo in tallaght on thur. This definetly isnt a positive for them., they dont like the wide pitch there, as we saw Shams opening them up in the cup final.
They like it narrow in hunky dory, were they can press high and prevent the ball from getting forward much.

If the Swedish team are any use, they should create an awful lot of chances. Which Drogh team turns up is anyones guess. Add to that the manager has no idea of his best 11, doesnt bode well for Droghs european adventures. -1 asian on malmo looks nice

Limerick seem a very big price against bohs friday. They have injury concerns, but bohs have been very bad of recent. Rumours of a big signing or two for Lim, may come too soon for this game, but -.25 at evens seems nice

Any1 know if Drogheda are actually going to play Shels in the league on friday (as it is at the moment)
Crazy if so.

Its crazy that droghs even played their first team tonight for a league cup game - when they have europe on thursday. far from ideal preparation

[bohsman]

Bookies have the Drogs league game down for Sunday afternoon.

[Raheny Red]

On Sunday, Shelbourne @ 4/1 DNB away to Drogheda is wrongly price by Bet365!

[Semibluff]

yeh thanks - SBO had friday. Wonder will my bet be voided on shels, as it was their mistake?
Ill prob still back shels, but will wait and see instead.

Shels starting to get a bit of form, arent as bad as they have been this year. Theyll save a fortune on offloading Philly (canteen bill and wages)
Expect them to be value for the next few weeks.

Any whispers about transfers?

Waterf signed well, and Kilduff gone to cork for the second half of the season. Shams must be expecting to buy up top - Shepphard is gone back to reading afaik and Stewart hasnt been half as good as his former self.

I Expect lim to make a bit of a splash also

[Semibluff]

only SJ are 157 on malmo now. 144 elsewere.

Also, without knowing an awful lot, Id be looking at taking St Pats +.5 and unders in that game. This will be the game that the boring "dont lose" attitude of Buckley should really be tested.

[Semibluff]

Malmo are 1/3 now. from 4/7. Could be a rough night for drogheda. Will be at it myself anyways

looking forward to seeing this guy play: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJtC6Bojf_Q

[Raheny Red]

On Sunday, Shelbourne @ 4/1 DNB away to Drogheda is wrongly price by Bet365!

Drogheda held Malmo to an energy sapping 0-0 draw tonight. Drogs played with 10 men for over 15 mins too. Mick Cooke in his post match interview said they will try get the Shels game postponed. 4/1 DNB still available!

[Semibluff]

Aberdeen play shels saturday in a friendly.

If drog game goes aheads sunday - take any early prices avail on aberdeen, if cancelled, then avoid.

Yeh drogh game was frustrating. Funny seeing a team who refuse to defend in LOI, literally just park the proverbial bus!
about 4 half chances for malmo, 1 for droghs and a weak penalty claim.

[Raheny Red]

We are playing Ipswich Town on Saturday. Aberdeen is later in the month, but yeah, the same logic applies.

[Semibluff]

sorry - yeh, thats what i meant. Even better, ipswich > aberdeen, certainly squad wise1

Really like limerick at 13/10 with VC (this price wont hold.) I would make them odds on. Ill be going to Dalyer tonight it seems

Also, Athlone with Paddy Power. Theyll miss Coombes who has left to go to bray, but they are good here -.25

Im on dundalk and sligo also, but not at current prices

[bohsman]

Taking Sligo -1AH, seems to be a bad atmosphere in the Cork team and the fans wont help, Sligo should be far too strong.

[Semibluff]

yeh the AH -1 is always a nice bet, i think. shot to nothing sorta bet.

Kilduff will have to have his magic beans with him to turn this season around for cork

[Semibluff]

theres a funny situation with the St Pats game. 2-2 first game, with away goals.
Id of been interested in -.5 if they had needed a win, but with such a defensive manager, a team that last season gained massive satisfaction in drawing games even when arguably they should have went for broke to win these 6 pointers

theyre now faced with the fact that 0-0 or 1-1 is a win for them. They will set out defensively, counter attack and set piece threat - but really dont see them trying to win the game. Hence backing them at evens wouldnt be the best bet. Wouldnt like the Liths either tho, so faced with backing the draw. Prob best value if these were the only 3 option, although Pats have every chance to score - and defend, esp as the away team have to open up.

I think under 2.5 is prob the way to go here. covers two draws and all low scoring scenarios


Droghs will prob be opened up away to malmo. They (malmo) were terrible in the last game, and still could have had 2 or 3 goals (admittedly Drogh had a few half chances and decent penalty claim)
Expect Malmo to get through easily here - as much as outside of any bets, seeing the Irish teams progress is always nice

[Semibluff]

like pats draw no bet today

anything over 1/2 on waterf or harps

evens + on dundalk

drogh price has gone, limerick are very light and droghs refound a bit of form (2.2+ is good)

surely derry cant keep losing me money (missing penos and losing at home to drogs)
.75+ on them also

[Semibluff]

wish every night went like that!!

[Semibluff]

Expect waterf athlone bray ucd to all get results tonight. So much so theyll cover their HCs

Shams should beat bohs well.Wont be enough to save Crolly next year, neither should them winning 2 cups in a year. But who knows

overs derry game too .85 +

[bohsman]

Expect waterf athlone bray ucd to all get results tonight. So much so theyll cover their HCs

Shams should beat bohs well.Wont be enough to save Crolly next year, neither should them winning 2 cups in a year. But who knows

overs derry game too .85 +

Dundalk and Athlone for me.

Shams should have beaten Bohs comfortably on their last 4 attempts as well, failed miserably every time.

[Guest]

wish every night went like that!!

We all wish, and not even one gets granted.

[Semibluff]

think UCD and Derry will win tonight

worth a double to see the season out

[Semibluff]

well this fairly deteriorated as a discussion thread. Not sure if ill contribute too much next year lads, I would encourage others to get involved in the league, if then we'd have a laugh and make some money

Regardless hope sum1 backed above (the first tips put up in 2 and half months).

For the final of the cup, hope Drogh win. have a mate playing, but if sligo play at all they should have too much. will prob sit it out.

Bray are prob 1/4 goal better than longford also, longford getting promoted is only a positive if Cousins gets the boot!!

Anyways - been a fun season!! well done to pats, dundalk. Most underachieving is Derry, then shels then shams.

[Raheny Red]

At the start of season at a Fans' Forum Alan Mathews was hopeful in Shels finishing 4th - I'm not overly surprised at relegation to be honest. I predicted a 10th place finish in pre-season. The board are totally to blame for finishing last. Giving Mathews a new contract was suicide. Johnny Mac has to take some of the blame too. Obviously he had to take on the shite that Mathews left him but our defensive record have been criminal the last couple of months.

[Aya14]

At the start of season at a Fans' Forum Alan Mathews was hopeful in Shels finishing 4th - I'm not overly surprised at relegation to be honest. I predicted a 10th place finish in pre-season. The board are totally to blame for finishing last. Giving Mathews a new contract was suicide. Johnny Mac has to take some of the blame too. Obviously he had to take on the shite that Mathews left him but our defensive record have been criminal the last couple of months.

This isn't a hindsight post but the first couple of months did ye no favours either.

On an entirely seperate note I'm elated and still somewhat disappointed with limericks season I feel we should have and could have produced more. I stopped posting in this thread a good while back because I felt I was adding nothing. But I followed keenly and look forward to next year .

EDIT : comiserations on the relegation Raheny. Never easy