Tricky hand

[colquhom]

Guy is 23/18/7. He opens cutoff 23% when its folded to him.

My notes on him are:

capable of bluffing 3/4 pot on missed rivers
3b/5b jam a2o bu vs bb
ccc squeeze ip with a9ss, call 2 streets ace high
3b/5b jam k10o bu vs bb
dont ever 4b bluff this guy

He opens CO to 6, Everyone folds i call in BB with AQss

Stacks are 220 effective (110bbs)

Flop

73Jss (7 and 3 are the spades)

He bets 9 into 12, I call.

Turn is Kh (this doesnt put up another flushdraw)

He bets 23 into 29, I call.

River is the Ks, completing my flush and pairing the board.

Board is 73JKKsss

He jams 179 into 74.

179 to call.

Thoughts? Anyone do anything differently anywhere else?

[NoHomeJerome]

snap him off and massive fist pump when he shows QQ for 2 pair

[Hectorjelly]

Don't think I can fold vs this guy. Tough one though without having a read on his overbetting frequency. He might expect you to raise sets and nfd on the flop, so I think you have to call since you are at the very top of your range.

Preflop and flop can be played differently but I think you played it fine.

[colquhom]

Don't think I can fold vs this guy. Tough one though without having a read on his overbetting frequency. He might expect you to raise sets and nfd on the flop, so I think you have to call since you are at the very top of your range.

Preflop and flop can be played differently but I think you played it fine.

Do you not think that if he didnt expect me to have a strong hand he could bet less rather than overbet jamming?

[Guest]

I think a more likely hand on the turn is a KJ, K7 type hand considering the bet sizing, so taking that into account I might be able to find a fold, I would be curious as to what people would think about 3 betting either pre or post flop to narrow or polarise his range a bit more?? I'm not one for trying to play a huge pot OOP with a hand that plays so well post flop but against a player who is capable of playing back quite light, could you possibly play AsQs more aggressively and make it profitable??

[Opr]

Given that you're at the top of your range and considering folding I'd say it's a pretty awesome bet.

Opr

[Hectorjelly]

Do you not think that if he didnt expect me to have a strong hand he could bet less rather than overbet jamming?

Yeah, it could be that. It also could be that he has a house and hope you have a flush, or it could be he thinks you never have a strong hand and pushes a wide range; or it could be that he thinks you will think it is a bluff call him light.

Without any information on which to base an analysis of his thinking I think you need to just call when you are near the top of his range, and fold otherwise.

I play in some games where I'd autofold this vs most regs.

[Bozzer]

Definitely calling with reads that he's capable of spew. If he has a boat, take a note.

Need further reads/stats to comment on preflop and flop.

[RoadSweeper]

I am happy enough to call the river over bet given reads.

I would most likely 3bet preflop, any reasons why you didn't? How many hands is sample over?

Edit. I guess more preflop stats are needed but it almost seems certain that 3betting AQs is good here.

[Opr]

Yeah, it could be that. It also could be that he has a house and hope you have a flush, or it could be he thinks you never have a strong hand and pushes a wide range; or it could be that he thinks you will think it is a bluff call him light.

Without any information on which to base an analysis of his thinking I think you need to just call when you are near the top of his range, and fold otherwise.

I play in some games where I'd autofold this vs most regs.

Why is it a call only when you're at the top of your range? Essentially should we not be calling with 10,10 here if we call with the flush?

Opr

[Bozzer]

I am happy enough to call the river over bet given reads.

I would most likely 3bet preflop, any reasons why you didn't? How many hands is sample over?

Edit. I guess more preflop stats are needed but it almost seems certain that 3betting AQs is good here.

3betting pre is usually best. Can call against nitty guys or if you hate life when 4bet.

[Hectorjelly]

Why is it a call only when you're at the top of your range? Essentially should we not be calling with 10,10 here if we call with the flush?

Opr

We beat all other flushes, trips etc. His range isn't necesarily polarised.

[Opr]

We beat all other flushes, trips etc. His range isn't necesarily polarised.

I'd find it hard to believe he was pushing many value hands expecting to get called light by worse than say a flush. I think in that case he would just bet for value.

If I'm calling in this spot then it's with the general belief of the guy thinks I've a weak range and beliefs a shove will get me to fold most of that range. That means I should really be calling with most of my range on the river.

Opr

[colquhom]

I didn't 3b pre because he only opens 23% from the CO, which is on the lowish side and he doesn't get wildly out of line with 4bets. It is close though I agree.

I folded anyway because I don't really believe he's capable of snap 2.5 pot overbet jamming with a bluff. I figured it was more likely he thought I wouldn't fold and he had a full house.

[ibimon]

Considering OP's notes:

"3b/5b jam a2o bu vs bb
ccc squeeze ip with a9ss, call 2 streets ace high
3b/5b jam k10o bu vs bb"

Shouldn't we be more inclined to 3b him and get him to 4b jam with some junk so we can call it off with AQs? If we have valuable reads like this, where the villain is trigger happy, I am more than happy to put my chips in the middle vs his wide jamming range. I mean the guy seems very fetish for his re-steals(considering he has done all of that on one table), and AQs is perfect hand for this situation.

[colquhom]

Considering OP's notes:

"3b/5b jam a2o bu vs bb
ccc squeeze ip with a9ss, call 2 streets ace high
3b/5b jam k10o bu vs bb"

Shouldn't we be more inclined to 3b him and get him to 4b jam with some junk so we can call it off with AQs? If we have valuable reads like this, where the villain is trigger happy, I am more than happy to put my chips in the middle vs his wide jamming range. I mean the guy seems very fetish for his re-steals(considering he has done all of that on one table), and AQs is perfect hand for this situation.

Usually yeah. But i have more specific info on him than that which informed the decision.

His 4 bet range is 1.2%, which isnt very high at all. Most regs are 2%+. This means that when he 4 bets he isnt usually folding, which means when I jam over his 4bets im getting called pretty frequently, which isnt a good thing against a range thats pretty strong. If i thought he 4bet bluffed a lot I'd just go ahead and 3b/5b jam and be thrilled about it but that isnt the case here.

Just because he doesn;t fold when he 3bets, doesnt explicitly mean that he will 4bet fold alot. Some people hate folding when they've put in 11bbs but dont mind folding when they put in 2.5/3bbs.

Well, at least thats my take on it anyway.

[Kralj187]

Especially when faced tricky hands it becomes even more important to rely on Pot Odds.

[AmarilloFats]

So do you think the reads you supply in OP is relevant in this spot?

Or is villain unbalanced only when facing 4 bets?

Even against poor players ive found that river overbets are very polarized to nuts or nothing so then the question is would this guy consider AK or a lower flush the effective nut in this spot?

I would fold this against a reg at 25Nl or 50NL