100nl Rush, interesting river spot

[digiman]

Full Tilt Poker Game #31528003681: Table Afterburner (6 max) - $0.50/$1 - No Limit Hold'em - 21:50:10 AEST - 2012/11/27 [05:50:10 ET - 2012/11/27]
Seats: 6
Seat 1: Rude8oy9 ($123.95)
Seat 2: oerrr ($223.25)
Seat 3: Hero ($165.95)
Seat 4: Ardiko ($135.65)
Seat 5: lukelegend91 ($166.25)
Seat 6: Solfernus ($100)
lukelegend91 posts the small blind of $0.50
Solfernus posts the big blind of $1
The button is in seat #4
* HOLE CARDS *
Dealt to Hero [Kc Ad]
Rude8oy9 raises to $3
oerrr calls $3
Hero calls $3
Ardiko folds
lukelegend91 folds
Solfernus calls $2
* FLOP * [9d Ks 8h] (Total Pot: $12.50, 4 Players)
Solfernus checks
Rude8oy9 bets $8
oerrr folds
Hero calls $8
Solfernus folds
* TURN * [9d Ks 8h] [4c] (Total Pot: $28.50, 2 Players)
Rude8oy9 has 15 seconds left to act
Rude8oy9 bets $22
Hero has 15 seconds left to act
Hero calls $22
* RIVER * [9d Ks 8h 4c] [Qc] (Total Pot: $72.50, 2 Players)
Rude8oy9 has 15 seconds left to act
Rude8oy9 .........

A bets $52
B shoves allin
C checks

Villan seems to be a reg, playing multiple tables anyway. I've no notes on him and I'm not using any HUD so I would just be treating him as a normal TAG. I could have 3b pre but I'm trying to build up some cash on FTP so just took the lower variance option plus it makes my hand a bit more disguised.

I'm most interested in what people do when he checks is that is what happened in the game but I guess the first 2 options are folds.

[Hectorjelly]

Fold, Fold, Check - Jesus I'm weak tight.

I don't see any point in value betting against a reg, the only conceivable draw got there and you both look like you have good hands. The only two hands I can see him calling with that you beat are KJ and AQ, but he has to fold KJ preflop some of the time, and will fold it on the river to a bet some of the time as well. AQ might call you, but again will check fold if he is disciplined. If I were him I'd check raise some good hands here as well, which is another reason to check.

[digiman]

Fold, Fold, Check - Jesus I'm weak tight.

I don't see any point in value betting against a reg, the only conceivable draw got there and you both look like you have good hands. The only two hands I can see him calling with that you beat are KJ and AQ, but he has to fold KJ preflop some of the time, and will fold it on the river to a bet some of the time as well. AQ might call you, but again will check fold if he is disciplined. If I were him I'd check raise some good hands here as well, which is another reason to check.

How often do you think hes got AA or AK here? I would imagine it makes up quite a bit of his range. I was thinking that the Q is the perfect card for me to bluff him off it because if we check we lose and chop quite a bit. His line is super strong until he checks and I think a lot of regs get scared with the Q coming here as it makes more sense for me to have KQ than AK?

[Hectorjelly]

How often do you think hes got AA or AK here? I would imagine it makes up quite a bit of his range. I was thinking that the Q is the perfect card for me to bluff him off it because if we check we lose and chop quite a bit. His line is super strong until he checks and I think a lot of regs get scared with the Q coming here as it makes more sense for me to have KQ than AK?

I think if think his range is that strong then you should fold the turn rather than turning your hand into a bluff on the river. I'm not sure he folds AK or AA here; are you?

[ibimon]

This limit is out of my league, but out of curiosity why would we not 3b our AK? aren't you letting junk pocket pairs go into the pot for cheap, which could give us trouble on the flop that you had there?
I think if we 3b here we would atleast narrow our range in villains eyes to AK, JJ+, and if he calls we are looking at JJ,QQ would probably 4b/fold to 5b? and rarely we would see AK,AA,KK but it does happen.
After that we would raise the C-bet on the flop with out TPTK, and if we see another barrel on the turn we would just fold. After representing so much strength PF and on the flop, a 2ndbarel from a reg would defiantly be for value with AA, KKK, QQQ or hell even 888 or 999 depending on the image you have with your 3bets on that table.
But like I said this limit is far beyond my BR

[colquhom]

Pretty simple check fold I would have thought.

[digiman]

Pretty simple check fold I would have thought.

We are in position and he checks the river? Do you just check it back then?
No interest in betting to get him to fold AK / AA?

[colquhom]

We are in position and he checks the river? Do you just check it back then?
No interest in betting to get him to fold AK / AA?

Wow i really didnt read that properly.

I'd just go ahead and bet. Pretty unlikely he has a better hand than you, prob get heroed by kjss, k10ss or something

[colquhom]

Wow i really didnt read that properly.

I'd just go ahead and bet. Pretty unlikely he has a better hand than you, prob get heroed by kjss, k10ss or something

Actually I dunno, its pretty close. Maybe dont bet. Hes prob more likely to call AA than the others if he checks them.

I don't think he'll fold AA unless he's good, in theory it might be good to make him fold but noone ever does in my experience

[lowkicker]

it's a funny one, by calling after 1 caller PF a large chunk of ur range will be medium pairs maybe 55-1010.. but also any 2 broadways, inc J10 which got there and also top pair good kicker.

it looks very obvious that he has a premium seen as though he's betting into 3 players oop on flop and again leading the turn.. he doesn't seem spooked until the Q hits, which would make a lot of sense to help ur hand, either 2 pair KQ or the nuts J10.. so it does scream AA to me, and i think in a multiway pot where you call on the flop he would be trying to get to showdown cheaply with anything worse than a K, 1010-QQ mainly which he isn't double barrelling as you're rarely calling with worse, but he isn't checking the river with QQ obviously..

overall i think it's a check back, very rarely will he fold AK or AA to a vb or shove here so just check back and be happy adding a good % to ur stack on the seldom times he bets a worse top pair like KJ or k10, underpair, or 67 for missed oesd.

[Guest]

Definitely think this is really close if he checks tbh, my main thing is I hate missing value and get really annoyed when I do, however I do think he may well be in check call mode but thats based on very limited info. He probably does play KJ and K10 like this but also feel he may play K9 Q9 KQ AK AA like this, may even check call a set but thats probably too hard to say.
Based simply on the fact we have limited info I check back tbh, at least that way we gain a greater insight into his tendencies, maybe weird to say but you may gain more value long term by checking back, even if your ahead, as you may learn more.


If shoved or bet on the river, I think I fold, his info on you i'm sure, is as limited as yours on him, so can't see him barrelling 3 streets on this board and showing up with worse to often.

Just to mention, regardless of BR, I'm surprised you didn't 3bet pre, I know your edge will lie post flop but would still fancy a 3bet to iso, gain a better grasp of their range and taking control of the flop may actually be a lower variance play.

[PEACEBROTHER]

I totally agree 3 betting here is a must . I have taken the route of calling with AK before but it always end it tough river decisions .
He could easily have Aces here and checking river as only real draw 10 J got there, id just check

[Kie Diddy]

Without any specific history I fold to a river bet and check back when villain checks most of the time..see little value in a merge bet in this spot as played as there is no air in your range and trying to get him to fold range as narrow as AA seems speculative-no point taking a lower variance route to this point and then opening yourself up to c/r or value-towning yourself?? (AQ one of the very few hands he can have that calls that you beat imo as played)

Out of interest, as I never play rush-does it being rush make a difference?- should his ep opening range be super tight and does this effect our decision?

If so, does AA become a bigger factor & (contrary to what I said above) do we think he folds AA to a big bet?

[handofgod]

A fold
B fold
C check

Don't think he folds AK+ enough to turn your hand into a bluff

[Lplated]

As you specificially state you're trying to play a low variance game, then it's a check for me -- it would defeat the low var option to bet to a check on the river with TPTK here [in the absence of any usable info on villian].

[AmarilloFats]

As you specificially state you're trying to play a low variance game, then it's a check for me -- it would defeat the low var option to bet to a check on the river with TPTK here [in the absence of any usable info on villian].

I read somewhere that the most optimal play is always the least variance route - in the long run.