Bad beat/Moaning/Venting thread - Mammy told me not to come.

[Opr]

I'd imagine poisson is much preferable to negative binomial, as the latter afair weights zeros a bit more than poisson do? That's just from a vaguely remembered research paper we did where the reviewers said don't do poisson as you need negative binomial as your data has more zeros. We just said okeliy dokily and did it. While for goal scoring presumably 1 is a more common score than 0 goals, so poisson suits it better.

Is there a dataset made available that these probabilities are calculated from?

They seem interchangeable from the articles I have read. I am not that interested in how that particular calculation is being done. It piqued my interest when Sit mentioned that money lines were moving based on the xG models. I can imagine the amount of people using these models has become massive since access to modeling, learn skillsets like Python, etc to make data skills more available to everyone became widespread.

I couldn't help wondering though is that is the new dumb money that moves the markets. I presume though the are outperforming the market. You have to presume
though that people are now doing way more sophisticated things ahead of this not only in refinding the xG model but also feeding that information into an overall larger system in which it is just a part of musch larger aggregation.

Poker has kinda evolved like this over the last few years with the advent of software, then training sites, then solvers, then real-time assistance to god knows where in the next few years but it seems clear the guys beating the game at the very top are in most cases doing things that others don't even know about yet. One of the top online heads up players was on the Joey Ingram's podcast last week and said that he was offered PIO solver a year before it was commercially released. He said to him a few of his high stakes mates all chipped in I think it was 60-70k and bought the program. They naturally crushed the games and continued to crush them long after the release due to being so far ahead on the learning curve.

Opr

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

...

[SatNav]

Mia has come on leaps and bounds since last music vid I would have posted. She sang solo at a concert first time ever at Xmas, music teacher received alot of compliments about her voice. Told me she has a, very special tone, said she should do some Amy Winehouse stuff and Nina simone suits her voice etc
She joined laois Generation of music last Sept which changed everything and...

Tonight she played and sang me her first song as in her song. I said that's, hardly yours as in.. Not joking unbelievable. How I said

She said you take sentences etc from books music film whatever then brain storm chart.

She then put the music to it and to say I'm proud is, an understatement. It was so good I didn't believe her till I saw paperwork.

She won't allow me video over copyright issues

My mother more or less shed a, tear listening. It was unbelievable for a, 14 year old girl to do that.
I'm hoping in near future I can post.

I asked her music teacher is ready for busking, not a bother he said let her on so we're thinking kilkenny some Saturday, I'll be close by to watch her. But wow I was blown away tonight. Super proud of her.

This is her teacher sound out

https://www.breakingtunes.com/burningboy

[Opr]

No idea who he is. Commentary is awful because the software moves too quickly, and they can't even read the winning hands. So mind-numbingly boring. Switch over to Joey Ingram on youtube whenever he is on. 1 million times better.

150k down after 3 days!! I haven't seen too much of it but just watched Joey's update video and he does seem to have been on the wrong side of a few huge coolers. I hope it is just variance as I don't really want to see him get massacred. He said at any point either player can tap out of the match if they pay the side bet directly. I wonder how far into the red he would let this match get before saying, uncle?

Summary of the match so far for anyone interested.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VmYMDIZ-R3U

Opr

[SatNav]

Now I can name 3 people in that pic

Me too strewel cause he's, oldest ipb member, Rd and trippie? Didn't even cop V. Who's lad with glasses. I know his face. Can't place him 🤔

[nicnicnic]

Tommy Tiernan just did an excellent interview with Mollly Bloom, her that ran the big game in NY and had a film made about it.
Quality interview where he let her tell her story and was smart enough to understand what it was about.

The show is generally very good, he has even managed to have me watch Brendan O'Carroll and Glen Hansard without throwing things at the TV!
The show has improved a lot now that they only pretend he doesn't know who is coming on and he has some research done.

Didn't see it, must have a look. Tommy used play Fintan's early Pokerevent's games, so would have some idea of the game anyway.

I remember being at same table at a game in Athlone, 2005/06. He'd won 10k the Galway leg a couple of weeks previous and had traveled by helicopter to the Athlone game after doing a gig in Cork.

I think it wore off fast but he definitely had the bug for a bit.

[shrapnel]

Me too strewel cause he's, oldest ipb member, Rd and trippie? Didn't even cop V. Who's lad with glasses. I know his face. Can't place him 🤔

SPOILER

clockwise from bottom left: rd3, Lao Lao, denny, sp, ionapaul, v4v

[Wesley Harms]

SPOILER

clockwise from bottom left: rd3, Lao Lao, denny, sp, ionapaul, v4v

Lao Lao and V4V are not at all as I had them pictured. Phantom Lord and IonaPaul, are exactly as I had pictured them, and even though I’d already met the other two there are far younger than I had remembered

[Lazare]

Didn't see it, must have a look. Tommy used play Fintan's early Pokerevent's games, so would have some idea of the game anyway.

I remember being at same table at a game in Athlone, 2005/06. He'd won 10k the Galway leg a couple of weeks previous and had traveled by helicopter to the Athlone game after doing a gig in Cork.

I think it wore off fast but he definitely had the bug for a bit.

He definitely played the IO at least once anyway. I was doing a bit of reporting for the old place one day and asked him how he was getting on.

[Guest]

SPOILER

clockwise from bottom left: rd3, Lao Lao, denny, sp, ionapaul, v4v

I'd have guessed 2 of those but wouldn't have a clue that one was

SPOILER

Denny

[Lazare]

Have a race this afternoon. No drinking since last weekend. Bed at 11pm last night and up and about since 7am.

I really really love my few beers, especially Saturday nights, but jesus feeling this good on a Sunday morning has a lot going for it.

Such a shame we can't have both things.

[Raoul Duke III]

I'd have guessed 2 of those but wouldn't have a clue that one was

SPOILER

Denny

[Dice75]

Have a race this afternoon. No drinking since last weekend. Bed at 11pm last night and up and about since 7am.

I really really love my few beers, especially Saturday nights, but jesus feeling this good on a Sunday morning has a lot going for it.

Such a shame we can't have both things.

Haven't had a drop since NYE. Up since 6.30am with a roast dinner cooked and just finished watching The Good, The Bad and The Ugly with two 4yo's. Off for a walk now. Mrs still spark out.

[Lazare]

Well that's impressive.

Was up a ladder taking xmas lights out of a tree meself.

[SatNav]

Drank a bottle and a half of pinot noir meself. Off to work now, fresh as a daisy

[shrapnel]

Have a race this afternoon. No drinking since last weekend. Bed at 11pm last night and up and about since 7am.

I really really love my few beers, especially Saturday nights, but jesus feeling this good on a Sunday morning has a lot going for it.

Such a shame we can't have both things.

Off the booze as well and on the keto diet for the last 2 weeks. Want to lose the weight I put on when on crutches for 14 months, and a little bit extra. Long road to go!

[Tar.Aldarion]

Met two but would instinctively name the six.

RD

[Silver-Tiger]

Recommendations for Batch Cook Book?

[ComradeCollie]

Drank a bottle and a half of pinot noir meself. Off to work now, fresh as a daisy

When I first read that, I thought you meant for breakfast!

[Guest]

Good article by “Franno” , better late then never m8 https://m.independent.ie/sport/colum...-38886898.html

I’ve decided im going to cheer on Saracens in the Heineken cup this year, would be great to see a bunch of cheats win club rugby’s “most prestigious “ tournament in front of a half empty stadium.

[Guest]

The set of Housing Crisis articles on the IT yesterday are well worth a read, approx 7 in total but McWilliams piece mentioned an article and video from The Economist on the obsession of house ownership, well worth a watch:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=kkVEt5tC2xU&feature=youtu.be

[SatNav]

When I first read that, I thought you meant for breakfast!

I have done that too

[SatNav]

Anyone here good at photo shop, I have a photo and there is 3 of us at front but I want the 2 behind us cropped out.

It's for a birthday present idea. Can send on fb or WhatsApp if someone can help 🙏

[Lao Lao]

Me too strewel cause he's, oldest ipb member, Rd and trippie? Didn't even cop V. Who's lad with glasses. I know his face. Can't place him 🤔

Think we've only met twice, once at an IO and once at an IPO years ago. Both times, it was very brief and at least once you were three sheets to the wind so your memory may be a bit hazy

Lao is the George Costanza fella there.

Ah heyour!!

[Theresa]

All looking well men!

The only one that shocked me was Denny. Not how I remember you Shane but it prob been 12 years.

[Raoul Duke III]

Trapped on a street corner by 10,000 Parkrun Lazare types just now. 15 minutes of the fast, the OK and then those who the ambulance lads were eyeing up.

This race. Looked to be some proper elite athletes at the front.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

...

[ArmaniJeans]

One confusing thing - they seemed to have some weird rules for breaking deuce - often a single point more was sufficient and for breaking the 6-6 game tie in the set - where they played points rather than more matches. Is that some new rules of tennis, or some special championship rules?

I know they've experimented with different systems in various events.
Outside of Grand Slams, the Doubles events use no-advantage scoring so at 40-40 the next point wins. Sounds like what you saw so maybe some Singles events use this as well.
Also at 1-1 in sets, some events don't play a third set but instead use a super-tie-break (first to 10 points) to decide the winner, which again may be what you saw.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

...

[ArmaniJeans]

Scenes at Shrewsbury Liverpool on BBC for anyone who switched off at 2-0.

[V for Vendetta]

Trapped on a street corner by 10,000 Parkrun Lazare types just now. 15 minutes of the fast, the OK and then those who the ambulance lads were eyeing up.

This race. Looked to be some proper elite athletes at the front.

Raheny would have Olympic and European hopefuls in their midst along with various marathon winners so the standards would be high. Were you giving it the old Shane Ross high fives all round and handing out FG election badges??

[ionapaul]

Trapped on a street corner by 10,000 Parkrun Lazare types just now. 15 minutes of the fast, the OK and then those who the ambulance lads were eyeing up.

This race. Looked to be some proper elite athletes at the front.

Fairly sure that's the race Laz went too today!

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

...

[6starpool]

Could it really be 35% of under 35s voting SF?

The good news is that most of those won't bother voting in the first place.

[The Situation]

After seeing Uncut Gems was a bit intrigued by the Safdie Brothers style of directing. So watched Good Time on Netflix and its every bit as fever dreamish, just a hotbed of relentless anxiety and hopelessness. Worth a watch

[Lazare]

Trapped on a street corner by 10,000 Parkrun Lazare types just now. 15 minutes of the fast, the OK and then those who the ambulance lads were eyeing up.

This race. Looked to be some proper elite athletes at the front.

The Raheny 5 mile.

Best race of the year imo.

Some standard at it. This sport is amazing. I was chatting to (and congratulating) the guy who came 3rd for Ireland at the Euro Cross Country champs. Chatting to him at a hand dryer.

The world record for 60+ was set on that course a few years ago.

Got myself a nice 58 sec personal best coming in at 33:44.

Delighted.

Pints.

[Wesley Harms]

Kobe Bryant is dead?

[Raoul Duke III]

The Raheny 5 mile.

Best race of the year imo.

Some standard at it. This sport is amazing. I was chatting to (and congratulating) the guy who came 3rd for Ireland at the Euro Cross Country champs. Chatting to him at a hand dryer.

The world record for 60+ was set on that course a few years ago.

Got myself a nice 58 sec personal best coming in at 33:44.

Delighted.

Pints.

You got a nice day for it. Basically just a loop around St Annes Park?

[Goodluck2me]

The Raheny 5 mile.

Best race of the year imo.

Some standard at it. This sport is amazing. I was chatting to (and congratulating) the guy who came 3rd for Ireland at the Euro Cross Country champs. Chatting to him at a hand dryer.

The world record for 60+ was set on that course a few years ago.

Got myself a nice 58 sec personal best coming in at 33:44.

Delighted.

Pints.

Class, well done. The standard is crazy high.

[Denny Crane]

Kobe reported killed in a helicopter crash. Mad.

[Guest]

Kobe reported killed in a helicopter crash. Mad.

My brother only interviewed him in LA last week. Mad stuff.

[Guest]

My sporting hero growing up as a Lakers fan buying Slam when no basketball was on TV. Best mate is a life long Spurs fan and it was always Lakers vs Spurs shocking stuff.
LeBron passed him for 3rd last night on the all time scoring list, crazy.

[Solksjaer!]

Saw him play against the Sonics( my adopted team) back in my Microsoft days . Just on the scene then . Some player.

[Solksjaer!]

The Raheny 5 mile.

Best race of the year imo.

Some standard at it. This sport is amazing. I was chatting to (and congratulating) the guy who came 3rd for Ireland at the Euro Cross Country champs. Chatting to him at a hand dryer.

The world record for 60+ was set on that course a few years ago.

Got myself a nice 58 sec personal best coming in at 33:44.

Delighted.

Pints.

Well done. Done easily beat 40mins for 10k

[Guest]

One of his more iconic moments that signified the whole legacy of his mentality

[Lao Lao]

Rumour has it, Ionapaul swiped his legs out from him as he ran past...

SPOILER

[Lao Lao]

No idea why all my photos are at a 90 degree tilt of late. They are perfectly normal on the phone before I post?!?!?!?

[Lazare]

You got a nice day for it. Basically just a loop around St Annes Park?

Yeah, pretty much.

It's a very special race for me. For numerous reasons. Was my first ever race, in 2017.

I spent most of my childhood out there, my Mam grew up on Watermill Park. Went almost 30 years not visiting it until Jan 2017.

Huge nostalgia.

The race falls around the anniversary of my little one Sybil.

She died in 2016, I ran that for the first time in 2017. Was my first ever race. A little while after signing up for it I copped that a part of the race ran up a street called Sybil Hill.

I turned left on to it that day and copped a convent called The Little Sisters.

Wept.

Her anniversary, Sybil Hill Road, little sisters. It was just too much. But it was euphoric.

Last year my mate, a guy who doesn't know the relevance, was out there spectating. After the race he sent me a pic that he took of me.

I looked at it and as a runner does started to examine my gait, my feet, etc. Just copped then that he snapped me right below the 'Sybil Hill' road sign.

Love the Raheny 5. Means so much to me.

[ionapaul]

Rumour has it, Ionapaul swiped his legs out from him as he ran past...

SPOILER

Actually saw the man himself on the ground in some distress, surrounded by about a dozen good Samaritans, on my way from the car park to the start line on Saturday morning. Whatever you think about his politics, he does volunteer a lot and not nice to see anyone in pain like that.

Was not quick that morning!

[Strewelpeter]

Out for a walk this afternoon going past a bit of heavily overgrown forestry I caught sight of something unfamiliar out of the corner of my eye and stopped to look a bit closer. I couldn't figure out what it was and was about to walk on when I saw something moving. Turns out it was a dog who had got his leg caught up in some wire fencing and was trapped. I got to the poor fella and he was in a bad way, I thought he was dying, he seemed very weak wasn't making a sound then I touched him and looked to me to have been there for a long time. I had to leave him to get help he gave me a very hurt look and then tucked his head away obv thinking I was abandoning him, poor fecker.
Cut a long story short I was able to get someone to come quickly with a wire cutter and got him free, in the meantime I posted on the local facebook group and got a call within minutes from the owner who'd had a few people out for hours looking for him. He was a gundog being trainined who lost his way
All turned out well, he's doing ok not standing on the leg yet but he'll live.

Pic shouldn't be too disturbing

SPOILER

And here a before pic of him

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

...

[dobby]

Top man SP, well played

[Solksjaer!]

Well done SP. The local Triads will be after you for that though .

[Solksjaer!]

Send on address via PM SP.

For you good deed will send one on to you.

https://youtu.be/YvT_gqs5ETk

[Trippie]

In the ever interesting travels throughout the USA. Drove through mississippi, alabama and georgia today. It's a whole other world here.

[Raoul Duke III]

In the ever interesting travels throughout the USA. Drove through mississippi, alabama and georgia today. It's a whole other world here.

"You ain't from around heah"

Cue banjo music

[DeadParrot]

My sporting hero growing up as a Lakers fan buying Slam when no basketball was on TV. Best mate is a life long Spurs fan and it was always Lakers vs Spurs shocking stuff.
LeBron passed him for 3rd last night on the all time scoring list, crazy.

SO many people thought it was a hoax because of that, his 13 year old daughter was also in the crash.
Given there was 9 people killed and they were on the way to her basketball game, it's likely there are other young fatalities
awful stuff

[DeadParrot]

Could it really be 35% of under 35s voting SF?

The good news is that most of those won't bother voting in the first place.

I can see it being SF's biggest election to date.
Blindingly obvious they are aiming for largest opposition rather than leadership or coalition.
If they were serious, why not run more candidates?

[Guest]

SO many people thought it was a hoax because of that, his 13 year old daughter was also in the crash.
Given there was 9 people killed and they were on the way to her basketball game, it's likely there are other young fatalities
awful stuff

I saw that, it's been confirmed another parent and his young daughter on the same team. Kobe was the co-pilot according to reports which seems credible given I know he traveled regularly via helicopter to and from games. It makes the video of his clearly imparting his knowledge while watching a Hawks game a few weeks ago all the more sad:

[DeadParrot]

This poor guy was the centre of a tweet storm last night.
Ended up tweeting an apology for something he said off hand years ago