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    Interesting Reading this http://www.ercrugby.com/eng/news/15779.php
    Mattie McGrath wanna-be

    Comment


      toulouse @ 4/1 heineken cup winner


      fixtures
      14/01/2012 16:40 P6 Toulouse v Connacht Rugby
      20/01/2012 20:00 P6 Gloucester Rugby v Toulouse

      toulouse play connacht at home next weekend in what looks very much like a bonus point win,and travel to gloucester who have little chance of going to the last 8.they will most likely end up in the top 4 thus getting home advantage from the 1/4 finals.given that they will also avoid the other top 3 teams,will be odds on to win and if they do they will be much shorter than 4/1 to win the heineken cup.with this in mind i had a nice bet @ 4/1 with the view of laying off later(if at all)and hopefully locking up a little profit!
      Mattie McGrath wanna-be

      Comment


        ulster @ 100/1 to win the heineken

        the price here varies greatly from anything from 100/1(boyles) down to 45/1(32red).tbh more of a g'wan ya good thing fun bet,tho they will be playing a under strenght tigers team at home next weekend,before heading to ASM Clermont Auvergne in what will be two very hard games for them,but they are playing well of late,winning at home v munster and away to edinburgh.still worth a score @ 100/1....just in case!
        Mattie McGrath wanna-be

        Comment


          Leinster - 9
          Montpellier (anything above +6 imo)
          Treviso +15
          Connacht +26

          boom, hope, boom, boom.

          Sneaky double on the Irish teams too.

          Comment


            Originally posted by amberleaf View Post
            ulster @ 100/1 to win the heineken

            the price here varies greatly from anything from 100/1(boyles) down to 45/1(32red).tbh more of a g'wan ya good thing fun bet,tho they will be playing a under strenght tigers team at home next weekend,before heading to ASM Clermont Auvergne in what will be two very hard games for them,but they are playing well of late,winning at home v munster and away to edinburgh.still worth a score @ 100/1....just in case!
            I actually quite like that bet - Ulster seem to be consistently underrated by some bookies and are actually a very solid team.

            FWIW, we got on them at scratch at home to Leinster with SJ yesterday. With Toby Flood and Tuilagi missing for the Tigers that line looks considerably off.

            Comment


              Originally posted by Emmet View Post
              Leinster - 9
              Montpellier (anything above +6 imo)
              Treviso +15
              Connacht +26

              boom, hope, boom, boom.

              Sneaky double on the Irish teams too.

              dunno lad,if aironi can put 20 pts past connacht,what could Toulouse do on a good day,hope i'm wrong mind you,think toulouse might want their bp win early before perhaps takeing a few players off with a view to the next weekend and onwards,guess when we see the line ups,might give us a few clues.no price on the munster game as yet,but the highest scoring half could be worth a look.

              Originally posted by Keane View Post
              I actually quite like that bet - Ulster seem to be consistently underrated by some bookies and are actually a very solid team.

              FWIW, we got on them at scratch at home to Leinster with SJ yesterday. With Toby Flood and Tuilagi missing for the Tigers that line looks considerably off.
              yup was thinking the same,the ulster Confidence is sky high right now,and we know that they will give it everything on friday night,think theres no need to wait for team line ups,at least on the ulster side as we more or less know what ulster have to offer,forecast on the night perhaps,might be worth waiting for.ulster-0 still there @10/11,would be nice to see them take the tigers down and get some sort of result over in france to see them move on,never know might end up meeting munster down in tp,now that would be a battle waiting for!
              Last edited by amberleaf; 10-01-12, 11:17.
              Mattie McGrath wanna-be

              Comment


                Originally posted by Keane View Post
                FWIW, we got on them at scratch at home to Leinster with SJ yesterday. With Toby Flood and Tuilagi missing for the Tigers that line looks considerably off.
                Leicester looked good at the weekend minus those players. Flood was replaced by Billy Twelvetrees (what a name!!) who scored all 29 points! Prob the reason for the odds. Still would think Ulster are worth a punt at home, but Leicester will be no pushovers, even without those two players.

                Comment


                  Originally posted by NuckChorris View Post
                  Leicester looked good at the weekend minus those players. Flood was replaced by Billy Twelvetrees (what a name!!) who scored all 29 points! Prob the reason for the odds. Still would think Ulster are worth a punt at home, but Leicester will be no pushovers, even without those two players.
                  Yeah but what you're effectively asking yourself is whether Flood -> Twelvetrees is a loss or not, and imo it definitely is.

                  Comment


                    boyles have munster-13,at this stage looks a little low given that this is a bonus point game for them.(think will need a bp to get in to the top 4, home 1/4 final)dont think they would fancy going to the saints looking for a result,castres wont be sending over their strongest team with bigger things for them in the T14,you would think!

                    edit;just gone -14
                    Last edited by amberleaf; 10-01-12, 13:48.
                    Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                    Comment


                      Originally posted by amberleaf View Post
                      boyles have munster-13,at this stage looks a little low given that this is a bonus point game for them.(think will need a bp to get in to the top 4, home 1/4 final)dont think they would fancy going to the saints looking for a result,castres wont be sending over their strongest team with bigger things for them in the T14,you would think!

                      edit;just gone -14
                      I dont know the line seems about right tbh, Munster are never ones for racking up a big score, and with the injuries in the backs and the back row in particular I wouldnt be investing too much in this.

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by amberleaf View Post
                        boyles have munster-13,at this stage looks a little low given that this is a bonus point game for them.(think will need a bp to get in to the top 4, home 1/4 final)dont think they would fancy going to the saints looking for a result,castres wont be sending over their strongest team with bigger things for them in the T14,you would think!

                        edit;just gone -14
                        Originally posted by premierstone View Post
                        I dont know the line seems about right tbh, Munster are never ones for racking up a big score, and with the injuries in the backs and the back row in particular I wouldnt be investing too much in this.
                        castres
                        round 1 lost to scarlets (away)
                        round 2 lost to munster (home)rog drop goal
                        round 3 won saints (home)
                        round 4 lost saints (away) 45-0

                        they are now 4th in the top 14,they face biarritz on the 26th of jan. at home,imo there is no way they will risk key players away from home in a comp they couldnt care less about.on the other hand munster will have to look for a bp win and not go to the saints looking to get a result,dunno lad but the -14 looks alright from this point of view.munster are grinding out wins when playing teams that want to beat them,but will the castres team that comes to ireland next weekend,have that mind set?not too sure they will tbh
                        Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                        Comment


                          Think -14 looks about right from the bookies POV as well.

                          Comment


                            going to have a punt on Wales for the Six nations (11/4)... Feel that if it gets to be a decider in Cardiff on Paddys day, that fans, pride and place will drive them on to victory! Opinions?
                            D15 CASINO, Mulhuddart Village (opp Blanchardstown shopping centre)

                            Comment


                              still think the -14 could be a little low,but wait and see what castres bring over,i know that they are expecting to face a strong saints team away in the last of the pool games.a bonus point win here could be a absolute must for them,forecast is good for the weekend.
                              Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by westlife View Post
                                going to have a punt on Wales for the Six nations (11/4)... Feel that if it gets to be a decider in Cardiff on Paddys day, that fans, pride and place will drive them on to victory! Opinions?
                                wouldnt have a bet @ 11/4,you can get 5/1 with laddies for the triple crown,away to ireland and england mind you,might have a look at france for the grand slam @ 9/2,they got ireland and england at home and scotland,italy and wales away

                                edit.think ireland could do wales at home in the first game,just thinking back to last weekends game in the pro 12,cardiff v leinster,there was a few match ups there and imo the reff might have saved the blues from a right hideing,
                                Last edited by amberleaf; 11-01-12, 10:11.
                                Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                Comment


                                  think i might split my stake and put half on france to win the grand slam @ 4/1,and put a double on england away to italy and france away to scotland @ 1.92 with stan james as a saver bet
                                  Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                  Comment


                                    Originally posted by amberleaf View Post
                                    still think the -14 could be a little low,but wait and see what castres bring over,i know that they are expecting to face a strong saints team away in the last of the pool games.a bonus point win here could be a absolute must for them,forecast is good for the weekend.
                                    Yeah the team Castres send is quite important obv, but you have to remember that the fact that they're quite likely to bring and understrength team is already factored into the -14.

                                    Comment


                                      Originally posted by westlife View Post
                                      going to have a punt on Wales for the Six nations (11/4)... Feel that if it gets to be a decider in Cardiff on Paddys day, that fans, pride and place will drive them on to victory! Opinions?
                                      I wouldnt be mad about this tbh, I think Wales over achieved at the world cup, in that they caught people aff guard and in reality thay have a style that can be easily counter acted, this plus Frances fixtures have fallen perfectly for them, I think a Lievermont free France could smash this championship. They have Italy up first, and both England and Ireland have to travel to Paris.

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                                        Yeah think Wales are a bit overrated as well.

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                                          And Priestland's been playing piss poor. Shadow of his WC form.

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                                            Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                            Yeah the team Castres send is quite important obv, but you have to remember that the fact that they're quite likely to bring and understrength team is already factored into the -14.
                                            better leave this till we see the what castres team lands over,as it stands think ulster is the only one i go for at this stage,might have a look at the treviso Team Selection,later in the week!
                                            Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                            Comment


                                              I've had another bite at Connacht +27 with Boyles

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                                                I must admit the +27 for Connacht seems high, but the absence of Johnny Concrete is huge..plus Toulouse have been coming to the boil nicely and the win at Harlequins was a big fillip for them.
                                                I have clobbered the Munster -14 mark...Castres will send the same team that crumbled up front and lost 45-0 in northampton...we are at our strongest up front right now, so badly and all as performances have been, (and bias aside) I would expect a bonus point win and if the defence isn't awful, then 14 pts should be beaten easily.
                                                "Ne jamais perdre sa passsionne...ou s'en, éloigner vite!!!!..EC

                                                Comment


                                                  I don't know how to price up the Saracens vs Biarritz match with Saracens off in South Africa during the week for a training camp.

                                                  Anybody care to venture how the travelling will affect them? Probably worth a few points against them but even so -6 looks too small.

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                                                    Leinster -8 is too short IMO with Ruaridh Jackson and Morey Low missing.

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                                                      Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                                      I don't know how to price up the Saracens vs Biarritz match with Saracens off in South Africa during the week for a training camp.

                                                      Anybody care to venture how the travelling will affect them? Probably worth a few points against them but even so -6 looks too small.
                                                      I guess it should affect them a bit alright. They are def the better team here though and Biarritz (like most Frog teams) don't have a good away record against decent opposition. Biarritz really have to go all out here though..they have the Ospreys at home in the last round, who will probably pick up maximum points at home to Treviso on Friday meaning things will be very tight for Biarritz to make a best runner up spot. Overall I would expect Saracens to shade it and if they are well ahead in the 2nd half B.O could give up, but I wouldn't go mad on the -6 just yet.
                                                      "Ne jamais perdre sa passsionne...ou s'en, éloigner vite!!!!..EC

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                                                        Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                                        Leinster -8 is too short IMO with Ruaridh Jackson and Morey Low missing.
                                                        Looks that way yeah, but Leinster have been poor for long spells of both away games so far in Europe. They really should be winning handily, but Glasgow's pack isn't bad and Richie Grey is likely playing his last home game for them before heading for Sale which could heighten the motivation. I am tempted by the Leinster -8 though and a few tryscorers aswell.
                                                        "Ne jamais perdre sa passsionne...ou s'en, éloigner vite!!!!..EC

                                                        Comment


                                                          munster gone to -16 now,ulster -1,might have spotted something in the stats/research thingy in the munster/castres will throw it out there when the other markets are up,see what ye make out of it!
                                                          Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                            Originally posted by ciarraithuaidh View Post
                                                            Looks that way yeah, but Leinster have been poor for long spells of both away games so far in Europe. They really should be winning handily, but Glasgow's pack isn't bad and Richie Grey is likely playing his last home game for them before heading for Sale which could heighten the motivation. I am tempted by the Leinster -8 though and a few tryscorers aswell.
                                                            Not at all.

                                                            1 Montpellier's performance at home was incredible.
                                                            2 Bath also fronted up so well on the day against us.
                                                            3 We demolished them at home
                                                            4 We also destroyed Glasgow at home.

                                                            Leinster -8 is a misprice imo. 11-13 is the fair price, leaning towards the latter but dependent on the team that Glasgow put out. They really are a poor side.

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                                                              Originally posted by Emmet View Post
                                                              Not at all.

                                                              1 Montpellier's performance at home was incredible.
                                                              2 Bath also fronted up so well on the day against us.
                                                              3 We demolished them at home
                                                              4 We also destroyed Glasgow at home.

                                                              Leinster -8 is a misprice imo. 11-13 is the fair price, leaning towards the latter but dependent on the team that Glasgow put out. They really are a poor side.
                                                              Ok, "poor" is harsh.."below par" would have been more accurate perhaps. The Bath game is a case in point..this is a team who were 10th in premiership at time of that game..you'd expect Leinster to put them away no matter what the venue. I know Leinster had created several chances during the game, but Bath dominated possession for long spells aswell.

                                                              Anyway, the lineups are going to be pretty much the same as they were for the same fixture in the RDS..so anything other than a Leinster win would be a shock...but Glasgow are capable of more than you seem to credit them with..their full strength pack would be excellent on paper at least. Beattie, Barclay, Kellock, Gray, Low, Welsh, Hall, all decent players.
                                                              "Ne jamais perdre sa passsionne...ou s'en, éloigner vite!!!!..EC

                                                              Comment


                                                                One game versus Bath away - even two games if you count the Montpellier game - is lolsmall sample size to be making any sort of judgement that Leinster aren't as good as they should be away from home.

                                                                We have the line at 11-13 points depending on Jackson's fitness as well.

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                                                                  ulster team v tigers ULSTER (15-9) S Terblanche; A Trimble, D Cave, P Wallace, C Gilroy; I Humphreys, R Pienaar (1-8) T Court, R Best, J Afoa, J Muller (Captain), D Tuohy, S Ferris, C Henry, P Wannenburg

                                                                  Replacements (16-23): N Brady, C Black, A Macklin, L Stevenson, W Faloon, P Marshall, I Whitten, A D'Arcy
                                                                  Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                    Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                                                    One game versus Bath away - even two games if you count the Montpellier game - is lolsmall sample size to be making any sort of judgement that Leinster aren't as good as they should be away from home.

                                                                    We have the line at 11-13 points depending on Jackson's fitness as well.
                                                                    "Leinster have been poor for long spells of both away games so far in Europe"

                                                                    Thats all I said...and I stand by it.

                                                                    By the way, word is Jackson will be ok to start.
                                                                    "Ne jamais perdre sa passsionne...ou s'en, éloigner vite!!!!..EC

                                                                    Comment


                                                                      Originally posted by ciarraithuaidh View Post
                                                                      "Leinster have been poor for long spells of both away games so far in Europe"

                                                                      Thats all I said...and I stand by it.
                                                                      It's a pretty much meaningless statement in terms of handicapping the game, but whatever.
                                                                      Last edited by Keane; 12-01-12, 13:31.

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                                                                        Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                                                        It's a pretty much meaningless statement in terms of handicapping the game, but whatever.
                                                                        Its not meaningless if Leinster are dominated in the possession stakes for prolonged periods of a game and therefore not in a position to score themselves is it?
                                                                        "Ne jamais perdre sa passsionne...ou s'en, éloigner vite!!!!..EC

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                                                                          anyone know why the hcp is no longer around in the munster/castres game?
                                                                          Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                            just done a double for the friday night games in the hec,backed ulster @ 8/11 and ospreys/treviso,2nd half highest scoreing half @ 5/6.the ulster one is Straighforward,the osp/tre is again based on stats. tho its marginal.

                                                                            ulster @ 8/11
                                                                            ospreys/treviso highest scoring half,2nd half @5/6
                                                                            Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                              castres team to face munster

                                                                              Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                                toulouse starting 15 v connacht http://www.stadetoulousain.fr/Le_XV_...t-49-3440.html
                                                                                Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                                  gone for a lump on toulouse -13 in the 1/2 time hcp,to me anyways looks a bit of a banker!

                                                                                  toulouse -13 half time handicap @ 10/11
                                                                                  Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                                    Originally posted by amberleaf View Post
                                                                                    boyles have munster-13,at this stage looks a little low given that this is a bonus point game for them.(think will need a bp to get in to the top 4, home 1/4 final)dont think they would fancy going to the saints looking for a result,castres wont be sending over their strongest team with bigger things for them in the T14,you would think!

                                                                                    edit;just gone -14
                                                                                    Originally posted by amberleaf View Post
                                                                                    munster gone to -16 now,ulster -1,might have spotted something in the stats/research thingy in the munster/castres will throw it out there when the other markets are up,see what ye make out of it!
                                                                                    munster gone to -19 now,must be some big wonga gone on them!
                                                                                    Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                                      Originally posted by amberleaf View Post
                                                                                      just done a double for the friday night games in the hec,backed ulster @ 8/11 and ospreys/treviso,2nd half highest scoreing half @ 5/6.the ulster one is Straighforward,the osp/tre is again based on stats. tho its marginal.

                                                                                      ulster @ 8/11
                                                                                      ospreys/treviso highest scoring half,2nd half @5/6
                                                                                      no joy,ulster won easy,the highest scoring half let me down
                                                                                      Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                                        on quinns -7 large,sweat time!
                                                                                        Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                                          Originally posted by amberleaf View Post
                                                                                          on quinns -7 large,sweat time!
                                                                                          puke
                                                                                          Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                                            Was on ulster-2 10/11, northampton 10/11, and leinster-8 at 10 11 for sweep tomorrow 1 time.
                                                                                            location green and yellow stretford end

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                                                                                              Originally posted by kaiser soze View Post
                                                                                              Was on ulster-2 10/11, northampton 10/11, and leinster-8 at 10 11 for sweep tomorrow 1 time.
                                                                                              nice one,hopefully leinster will push on a bit
                                                                                              Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                                                Leinster lucky to come away with a win there. Bookies pretty well on the money between that and the Munster winning margin yesterday...the feckers!
                                                                                                "Ne jamais perdre sa passsionne...ou s'en, éloigner vite!!!!..EC

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                                                                                                  yep bang on,not far off the connacht game as well.ulster the only punter win this weekend as far as the irish teams are Concerned
                                                                                                  Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                                                    Originally posted by amberleaf View Post
                                                                                                    yep bang on,not far off the connacht game as well.ulster the only punter win this weekend as far as the irish teams are Concerned
                                                                                                    And my boys out West beat the HC in Toulouse

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                                                                                                      Yeah bookies bang on with that 1 fml.
                                                                                                      location green and yellow stretford end

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                                                                                                        Originally posted by Emmet View Post
                                                                                                        And my boys out West beat the HC in Toulouse
                                                                                                        yup,good call,played well in fairness to them,never know might rattle the quinns next weekend!
                                                                                                        Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                                                          Does anybody like Connacht +9 10/11 tonight. Admittedly they are out of the running but only lost 25-17 in the reverse in round 1 and were quite respectable vs Toulouse last week losing 24-3. Weather is reportedly windy and raining in Galway also which could lead to a scrappy affair. Any thoughts??

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                                                                                                            Originally posted by Terry Phelan View Post
                                                                                                            Does anybody like Connacht +9 10/11 tonight. Admittedly they are out of the running but only lost 25-17 in the reverse in round 1 and were quite respectable vs Toulouse last week losing 24-3. Weather is reportedly windy and raining in Galway also which could lead to a scrappy affair. Any thoughts??
                                                                                                            not raining in Galway and not promised for tonight..
                                                                                                            but being Galway it could start at any minute.

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                                                                                                              Originally posted by Mike View Post
                                                                                                              not raining in Galway and not promised for tonight..
                                                                                                              but being Galway it could start at any minute.
                                                                                                              What's the wind like Mike?

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                                                                                                                I went to the trouble of ringing a lad in Galway Keane and he told me it has started raining, but not heavily....If Quins don't start like wildfire I'm having a piece of the Connacht +9/10 action.
                                                                                                                "Ne jamais perdre sa passsionne...ou s'en, éloigner vite!!!!..EC

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                                                                                                                  IPB fantasy 6 nations anyone??
                                                                                                                  I've joined Guinness Fantasy Rugby 2012 game


                                                                                                                  and I bet that my team, There is no BOD, will beat any team you can put together!

                                                                                                                  I challenge you to join my mini-league. Go to the game ( at http://fantasyrugby.guinness.com/?page=register ), pick your team then use the 'mini-league admin' option to join my mini league.

                                                                                                                  The details you need are:
                                                                                                                  League Name:
                                                                                                                  IPB league
                                                                                                                  League password:
                                                                                                                  emmetwillnotwin

                                                                                                                  It's not hard and there are some great prizes to win, so unless you're afraid of getting beaten I'm looking forward to seeing you in my league soon!
                                                                                                                  http://mobro.co/zuroph
                                                                                                                  donate to my hairy lip!

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                                                                                                                    Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                                                                                                    What's the wind like Mike?
                                                                                                                    wind is picking up plus its always windy in the sportsground.

                                                                                                                    missing the match tonight, stuck in work, not happy

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                                                                                                                      Easy money! Well, not really. What a great defensive 2nd half show from Connacht....delighted for them...If those flaky frogs hadn't lost in gloucester I would have been happier still.
                                                                                                                      "Ne jamais perdre sa passsionne...ou s'en, éloigner vite!!!!..EC

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                                                                                                                        Originally posted by Zuroph View Post
                                                                                                                        IPB fantasy 6 nations anyone??
                                                                                                                        In if we can get a few together. Missed it last year but really enjoyed it the year before.
                                                                                                                        'Mental Toughness is doing the right thing for the team when it's not the best thing for you' - Bill Belichick

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                                                                                                                          What did we miss analysing the Toulouse game?

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