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    Originally posted by Mellor View Post
    VLuckily, I was able to secure a profit seeing as Tyson Griffin was briefly availible at 1.38 after the fight was over. It didn't stay there long. I bought up a decent slice of it
    Ugh voided.

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      UFC 133

      Very tough event to predict, which should mean good prices, and maybe value. I won't be punting heavy though.

      Preliminary card (Facebook)
      Middleweight bout: Rafael Natal vs. Paul Bradley
      I know little about either, but Natal held Jesse Bongfeldt to a draw. No info on Bradley, other than his record is 18-2-0-1, but likely fighting in low standard UK cards. I'd give this one 50/50, and go with the best price, PP have both at 5/6

      Featherweight bout: Mike Brown vs. Nam Phan
      Brown was the top 145er in the world 2 years ago, 2 wins over Faber, Garcia, then losing to Aldo started his bad run, has since lost 3 more times, including his last two. Nam Phan impressed on TUF, dropping to FW for the finale. He was robbed verses Garcia, so much so that he was paid the win bonus. I think he has the ability to beat an aging Brown (now 35), but he is the underdog. I think Brown wins, but Phan is value at 7/4

      Welterweight bout: Johny Hendricks vs. Mike Pierce
      It's close but Hendricks takes it for me, he's had the tougher fights (bar fitch)

      Catchweight (138lb) bout: Ivan Menjivar vs. Nick Pace
      Another close one, a few days ago I would of went for Pace on value, being 7/4, but Ivan has just missed weight, so he'll have a size advantage most likely plus he won't have had the drain from cutting. I'm assuming he pulling out of the cut and forfeited some of his purse in order to keep an advantage

      Preliminary card (televised)
      Featherweight bout: Chad Mendes vs. Rani Yahya
      Undefeated Mendes to walk this. Mendes is somehow 1/4 Irish???

      Light Heavyweight bout: Matt Hamill vs. Alexander Gustafsson
      I can't stand Hamill, but he is a top wrestler. Alexander was impressive in Sydney, beating the Kiwi Te Huna, but Hamill has top class opponents for a long time, Jon Jones (his win doesn't count though), Jardine, and a loss to Rampage. Another close one, but Hamill is the value at 6/4

      Main card
      Welterweight bout: Mike Pyle vs. Rory MacDonald
      Pyle has the experience, Rory is the rising star. I'm going with Rory, I'd like to see him get the win and get into the top 5 at 170

      Middleweight bout: Jorge Rivera vs. Costantinos Philippou
      Rivera is a hack. The only reason he is here on the main card is because the UFC fed him to Bisping, and there was an awful lot of shite talk to build up a fight that never was, and then the controversial knee and spit. Originally he was fighting Sakara, who was handing him his ass. But he was pulled and now Philippou is tossed n. I hate to say it, but Rivera is prob fav. Which means he'll stay around. But, I won't cheer for him so i'm taking Phillippou at 6/5 and hoping he wins and Rivera is cut.

      Welterweight bout: Brian Ebersole vs. Dennis Hallman
      Ebersole is a joker, also on the Sydney card, who beat Lytle with cartwheels and hitting him with his chest. But Lytle was apparently sick at the time. Hallman has an impressive 66 fights, Ebersole has 63. Both are available at 5/6, the obvious choice for me is Hallman

      Middleweight bout: Vitor Belfort vs. Yoshihiro Akiyama
      Belfort coming off a stunning knockout loss. Sexyami has two losses on the go. But losses to Leben and Bisping, nothing to be ashamed about. He had a concrete chin, and his last three have been fight of the night. Belfort might well get back on fort and get the TKO, but this will be a brawl and Sexyami is huge value at 11/5.
      I'm also consider a punt at 10/3 for fight of the night

      Light Heavyweight bout: Rashad Evans vs. Tito Ortiz
      Evans should win this easy. Tito's win over Bader was a freak upset. But Tito makes a good point in interviews, he hadn't won in his previous 5 matches, but they were top class opponents, 4 out of 5 were champs, or went on to be champs.
      i will thinks its Evans though.

      Comment


        Not a bad set of results, never delighted in taking the underdog for value (which was the case in a lot above), but called 6 out of 9 winner right, my 50/50 went to decision, as did Pace/Menjivar which i was staying away from (had he cut all the way Pace won imo).

        good card in all. But WTF at Hallman's shorts???
        Ebersole actually got a $70k bonus for beating this guy and gtting him off the screen

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          I've been away from here for a while. Is there another MMA thread or is this it?

          Comment


            Originally posted by MMA Ace View Post
            I've been away from here for a while. Is there another MMA thread or is this it?
            Generally just discussed in Mellors betting log.

            Comment


              Originally posted by CHD View Post
              Generally just discussed in Mellors betting log.

              http://www.irishpokerboards.com/foru...ad.php?t=14669
              Cheers, will post there from now on.

              Comment


                Guys, Check out Rory Macdonald's upcoming fight against Ellenberger. I'm 98% sure that it's gonna be Rory via TKO.

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                  Originally posted by gavind View Post
                  Guys, Check out Rory Macdonald's upcoming fight against Ellenberger. I'm 98% sure that it's gonna be Rory via TKO.
                  I like Rory to win. But not at those odds and not by TKO.

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                    Phil Davis overpriced tonight against Machida available at 4.2, get on it! not saying hell defo win but unreal value at 4.2
                    http://www.bigmickg.blogspot.com/

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                      Originally posted by BIGMICKG View Post
                      Phil Davis overpriced tonight against Machida available at 4.2, get on it! not saying hell defo win but unreal value at 4.2
                      not tonight next week sorry but still get on him at 4.2
                      http://www.bigmickg.blogspot.com/

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by gavind View Post
                        Guys, Check out Rory Macdonald's upcoming fight against Ellenberger. I'm 98% sure that it's gonna be Rory via TKO.
                        Is this tipster any use? He is 1/50 MacDonald by KO and I can back either by KO at 7/5 - surely the bet of the millenium if our tipster is genuine.

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                          Seems amazingly the 2% shot came up to scupper things.

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                            Originally posted by BIGMICKG View Post
                            Phil Davis overpriced tonight against Machida available at 4.2, get on it! not saying hell defo win but unreal value at 4.2
                            Good shout.

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                              Originally posted by Hatedajacks View Post
                              Good shout.
                              Just watched the card, had Machida winning that pretty convincingly. They must have scored the 2 take downs at end of the 1 and 2 highly

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                                Originally posted by ghostface View Post
                                Just watched the card, had Machida winning that pretty convincingly. They must have scored the 2 take downs at end of the 1 and 2 highly
                                Agree with you but that's why it was a decent price at 4's. Phil can Grind out results with take downs and wrestling. I wouldn't have backed him at 2/1 but I got 7/2 and am not surprised the way match went although Like I said I agree that he should not have won though but saying that Machida didn't look like a 2/7 shot.
                                Last edited by Hatedajacks; 04-08-13, 17:19.

                                Comment


                                  Originally posted by Hatedajacks View Post
                                  Agree with you but that's why it was a decent price at 4's. Phil can Grind out results with take downs and wrestling. I wouldn't have backed him at 2/1 but I got 7/2 and am not surprised the way match went although Like I said I agree that he should not have won though but saying that Machida didn't look like a 2/7 shot.
                                  Can't disagree with that. Any implied value on Davis includes times he squeaks an unfair decision.

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                                    like hunt tonight and shogun if he done a decent camp (anyone have any info?)

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                                      Originally posted by poprock View Post
                                      like hunt tonight and shogun if he done a decent camp (anyone have any info?)
                                      Wouldnt punt on tonights event. Hunt/Silva is a toss up. Wouldnt be surprised if either knocked other out and Yes Rua is a half decent price but he has looked a shadow of his former self recently.

                                      Out of the two fights I would probably back Rua as 75% of his former self should take Te Huna. On your question regards Ruas camp,He looked slightly better than last two fights but still never looks in peak condition which baffles me.

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                                        I wasnt overly pressed with big foot win v overeem

                                        I thought hunt was excellent against jds despite losing

                                        I think hunt is a decent price

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                                          Who y'all betting on this weekend?

                                          I see Weidman/Machida market has opened already and Weidman is available at 5/9. Thoughts on that?
                                          Looking for full or part time poker and betting writers. PM if interested.

                                          Comment


                                            Nothing there this weekend that I'd be comfortable committing any significant amount of money to.

                                            Think both Sanchez and Shields are capable of winning those fights so some manner of small underdog accum may get done.

                                            Pondering a Hendricks, Condit, Shields treble

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                                              Originally posted by Ed View Post
                                              Nothing there this weekend that I'd be comfortable committing any significant amount of money to.

                                              Think both Sanchez and Shields are capable of winning those fights so some manner of small underdog accum may get done.

                                              Pondering a Hendricks, Condit, Shields treble
                                              Agree with all if this
                                              Sanchez can scrape a W through foolish ly charging forward late.
                                              Hector Lombard is a consultant non proformer. I refuse to bet on him. Shields is also in that group though.
                                              Undercard might bring something though.

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                                                Brad Wheeler 10/11 to beat John Maguire this evening in Cage Warriors is a good bet. Maguires form and appetite has dropped like a stone through water since and evn before UFC dropped him. Hes lost 5 out of 6 in all competitions and his ufc history is keeping his price what it is. Watching fight his last few he seems a pale shadow of what he was at his peak.
                                                Wheeler is on a 4 win streak and is the younger and better fighter. I see wheeler as a 4/9fav in this.
                                                The price is pp and the bet is a 6pm cut off even though the fight wont be until closer to 9.30pm

                                                Its on Setanta Ireland from 9pm and also streaming from 9pm on mma junkie and Daily mail
                                                Last edited by rounders123; 15-11-14, 17:18.

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