Hand from €50 tourney

[Donk Magnet]

1st hh posted here but this is really bugging me.

Blinds 800/1500 100 effective stack is 24bbs (me)
Utg +1 3x opens (tight old lady)
2 players in mp flat
I'm sb with 10 10 what's our action here??
Edit: to add she has raise folded twice in the last 3 rounds.

[dobby]

Normally I just flat here. Tight old lady usually has the goods pre and will pay you when you flop good.

How are the two callers playing? Are we worried about them?

If we re-raise, I think we have to be willing to put the stack in should she shove with only about 15-17bbs behind.

Maybe im too tight or maybe it's just the wrong play but I flat hoping to hit the flop and just c/f any flop I miss.

[shano1888]

Jam for me without reads on two guys who flat.

[Donk Magnet]

2 guys are terrabad!

[Lplate]

If this is a pub game John, 24 bbs is a big stack at this stage. You can flat and fold on most flops or raise. In an average pub game, if you raise to 10.5/11.5k here, you're getting 3 folds a lot of the time and a call from or and 2 folds the rest. If or shoves you can still fold if you think TT is behind and have a playable stack.
Lot's on here will call this advice bad but it's not in a pub game imo.

[Flushdraw]

There's no way in a million years i'm doing anything other than shove here, whether it be a pub game, a club game, the wsop or whatever. You said she has raise/folded twice in 3 orbits and the 2 guys that flatted are terrible. We have 36k, there's ~16.6k in the middle that we have a chance at picking up without going to showdown based on the information you gave. If we flat, and the flop comes low, we're probably still going broke to overpairs. If there's any paint on the flop, we're more than likely behind to one of the 3 players, and if not, we still fold to most bets or leave ourselves open to be bluffed. If any of them have underpairs, the probably don't pay us off for the full amount anyway.

We shove, hoping to fold out overcards, or if called, we've a great price on our hand. Stubborn underpairs can still call us, and if we run into a bigger hand, then so be it. It's too good an opportunity to do anything other than shove imo.

[Norwichfanrob]

Pretty standard call pre I would of thought , u had tons of equity with TT and can win a big pot if you hit the flop, also if the lady is weak tight, she's unlikely to barrel if she misses so you can gauge where you are depending on the action.

Raising essentially turns your hand into a bluff as you are unlikely to get it in pre vs worse, and you are wasting a hand with good equity by raise folding.

Edit, didn't spot she had raise folded a few times , more likely she is weakish then , depends on stuff like what positions she was in previous etc , id factor in some things such as general standard at the table , how easy is it to steal blinds etc , some merit in shoving pre , very little merit in raise folding though.

[ViperEyeIRL]

Can't see a better spot to get them in pre. Supereasy shove.

[Donk Magnet]

Thanks guys. I did ship it in the end and she had queens I was probably being too results orientated just the field was so soft.

[AndyFatBastard]

Thanks guys. I did ship it in the end and she had queens I was probably being too results orientated just the field was so soft.

Just accept that your shove with tens is a bluff. If she's a standard tight old lady in a €50 tournament, then you are utterly smashed by her calling range. She probably folds AK and 99, and certainly folds AQ and 88.

What makes it good is the other two in the pot. You pick up their dead money when they fold and there's a chance one of them will hero call (or gamble) with some bullshit hand. Essentially you're bluffing versus the old lady and value betting versus the other two. You were just unlucky that in this instance she had JJ+. From your reads, her opening range is much wider than her stacking off range.

[dobby]

Thanks guys. I did ship it in the end and she had queens I was probably being too results orientated just the field was so soft.

I agree with what Andy says above, only getting called by better, racing at best. Also you are CO to the ladys BB, a nice spot to chip away if she is tight and you also have decent position on the 2 mp terrabad flatters. And you aren't in "shove mode" yet with ~20bbs behind.

That's why I flat, if you flop a 10 she stacks off. If you don't, easy fold.

Lots would probably disagree with that but if you do please say why. I'm mad for learning about situations like this.

[BobSloane]

Andy explained it above. There's a lot of dead money in there because of the other two guys calling - plus she has raise/folded a few times so her opening range is wider than her raise/stack off range.

[dobby]

So even though your turning the hand into a "bluff". In the long run it's a profitable shove?

[BobSloane]

This is extremely approximate and basic and some factors are not accounted for at all. Also I've no pokerstove (does that even work anymore?)


When it gets to us there's ~16.5k in there and we have ~35k. If we jam and get called lets say we have 30% equity. (I think we'd have a little more against JJ+,AK but anyway). So if she folds 40% of the time we show a profit.

(0.4 x 16.5) + (0.18 x 47.5) = +15.15
(0.42 x -35) = -14.7

She has r/folded twice in last 3 orbits so expecting her to fold 40% of the time is not mental. Add in the fact that she could fold and we could be hero called by one of the others with a hand we dominate and it makes a shove even more attractive. All that said I don't think calling and c/folding any flop without a ten is terrible or anything. 3b/folding is absolutely horrific though

[Hectorjelly]

Good work Bob, I was very disappointed that no-one had done any maths yet, this is basically just a pretty simple equation. I'd add a few things to the debate

Flatting pre to just hit a set is not going to be very profitable. You aren't getting a very good price. Normally you would look for at least 10-1 implied odds. Given your position and the size of the pot its going to be profitable, but not hugely.

I would think that if someone had raise folded twice in the last period, they are usually very UNlikely to be raise folding again. Most players will just clam up and only enter the pot when they are happy to go all the way.

Lastly this is one of those situations where most options are going to be relatively close, so it really makes no difference what you do. Raise folding is worst, but even that won't be hugely -EV. Its a waste of TT though.

[BobSloane]

I would think that if someone had raise folded twice in the last period, they are usually very UNlikely to be raise folding again. Most players will just clam up and only enter the pot when they are happy to go all the way.

While this is probably true I don't think it means they clam up to the extent of only raising JJ+,AK. They probably open tighter than they were before and go with their hand..? Say 88+,AQ+ and we're almost flipping against that range - and with the dead money in the pot we're back to being in a good spot to shove.

On another note, hadn't played poker for a while and it seems like pokerstove is gone..or maybe I'm doing something wrong? Anyway this seems a decent alternative if anyone is looking for one

http://www.pokerstrategy.com/poker-tools/equilab-holdem/

[westlife]

1st hh posted here but this is really bugging me.

Blinds 800/1500 100 effective stack is 24bbs (me)
Utg +1 3x opens (tight old lady)
2 players in mp flat
I'm sb with 10 10 what's our action here??
Edit: to add she has raise folded twice in the last 3 rounds.

Sat Nav never bluffs!

[godlovesatrier]

this is a spot where you dont need to go broke imo...

Like most posters have said already if she has raised she probably has at worst AJ with overcards and 77+ if she has pair in her hand.

If she bet folds in teh three previous orbits then I'm pretty sure she will be opening even tighter and prepared to call an AI as she may be getting sick of having to fold.

I certainly would'nt rasie here particularly with 2 flatters, whats to say they aren't limping here with KK or AA trying to induce a re raise from late pos?
With a stack your size, just calling here is the optimal play imo,
If a low board comes, check call, and if she bets more than 60% of pot on turn..a lot of the time you could be beat and probably best folding. 1010 is not that strong a hand to be shipping with in that spot.

Regardless of how "terrible" yoy perceive the other players to be.

I think you should wait for a better spot before you bet the farm.

[ibimon]

not calling here ever. Push all the way. with 24bb it's a prefect spot to jam with your hand.
not even going to bother with maths.