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    Footie Betting log

    Going to try a football betting spin up, so going to keep a log here for my records and for anyone else that is interested. Before anyone jumps down my throat and points out all the wrongs..
    • I'm only going to be betting on Bwin.
    • I'm going to bet 25% of my roll on every bet i make.
    • Will make no more than 1 bet per day.
    • I'm going to be betting on football singles or doubles only.
    • I'm going to withdraw 20% of my roll every time i reach 3x my starting point.


    e.g Starting with 100 points. When a bet brings me over 300 points, i'm going to withdraw 20%, so if i get to 355 points i'll withdraw 71 and start with 284 points. If i then reach 852 points (3x284) i'll withdraw 170 and start again with 683 points etc.

    If i drop below 50 points, i'm going to change to betting 50% of the roll.

    I'm not a serious bettor and this is only an experiment and a bit of fun. I'm not interested in taking the best odds on offer (Bwin is usually really good), but if odds on Bwin are significantly less than on other sites, i won't be taking the bet.
    I'm using 1 site only for ease of keeping the roll and the log because if i move around sites, i'll bet on other things and not stick to the rules i've laid out and get lost.
    I do know a little about the compound overround and why betting on doubles is less than optimum, but most will be odds on and i'm too much of an action junkie to stick to singles, plus i want to see if this would be profitable. If it looks good, then i'll do a more serious one taking the best odds on offer. At the moment, just really looking at form and little snippets from stats and not delving into whether they have a full squad or not. That's for next time

    This could go bellyup very easy, and if it does i won't lose too much sleep over it. I'm just doing this for myself, and if i can turn a profit and reach the target i have in mind then happy days, and i'll roll on with the next one and see if there's any serious money to be made!

    #2
    First game up is Lanus home San Martin San Juan @ 57/100 in the Argentinian Premier League today.

    Lanus are in 3rd place behind Velez and Newells OB and are on the back of 5 straight wins. They've a home record of 5/1/1 this season seem full of confidence. They lost 3-1 to San Martin in this fixture last season so won't want back to back defeats

    San Martin are 4th from bottom with just 4 wins from 14. They've only won once away from home and haven't won in their last 3 games. Seems like a good place to start

    Starting bank - 100 points
    At risk - 25 points @ 57/100
    Yield - 75 or 114.5 points

    Comment


      #3
      Why ever limit yourself to one bet a day?

      If two great value spots come up why not take advantage?
      ﴾͡๏̯͡๏﴿

      Comment


        #4
        Why do you think the market is priced incorrectly?

        Comment


          #5
          Originally posted by Hectorjelly View Post
          Why do you think the market is priced incorrectly?
          Where did he say it was?

          Comment


            #6
            Originally posted by Micknail View Post
            Why ever limit yourself to one bet a day?

            If two great value spots come up why not take advantage?
            Because i'm limiting myself to betting 25% of my roll on 1 bet. I can't bet 25% on 2 bets or 12.5% on 2 bets because then it won't do what i have in mind. I doubt i could find more than 2 bets where i think odds might be slightly in my favour.

            Originally posted by Hectorjelly View Post
            Why do you think the market is priced incorrectly?
            I don't necessarily think it's priced wrong, but i've seen a lot of similar matchups priced 3/10 and better recently so 57/100 looks attractive to me.

            Comment


              #7
              Im liking the sizing of the bets, if losing lump a higher % FTW!!!!

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by Flushdraw View Post
                Because i'm limiting myself to betting 25% of my roll on 1 bet. I can't bet 25% on 2 bets or 12.5% on 2 bets because then it won't do what i have in mind. I doubt i could find more than 2 bets where i think odds might be slightly in my favour.



                I don't necessarily think it's priced wrong, but i've seen a lot of similar matchups priced 3/10 and better recently so 57/100 looks attractive to me.
                So on a Saturday when there is tons of games on you think u will only find one bet?
                Yet on a random Thursday you also seemed to find one?

                Comment


                  #9
                  Originally posted by Pistol Peter View Post
                  So on a Saturday when there is tons of games on you think u will only find one bet?
                  Yet on a random Thursday you also seemed to find one?
                  lol i want to bet on singles or doubles and bet 25% of my roll on 1 bet per day. I don't want to bet 50% of my roll. I don't want to bet on 4 bets. I don't want to go broke in 3 days. I don't want to make a million bets. I don't want to switch around sites. I could go on. Shoot me

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Originally posted by Flushdraw View Post
                    First game up is Lanus home San Martin San Juan @ 57/100 in the Argentinian Premier League today.

                    Starting bank - 100 points
                    At risk - 25 points @ 57/100
                    Yield - 75 or 114.5 points
                    Anyway, we got a 2-1 win here. 2 up at half time and San Martin pulled a goal back with 5 mins to go for a sweat but we got there.

                    Bank is 114.5 so our next bet is 38

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Little torn on what to do for today (Friday)

                      One game that looks like massive value is Lille away to Lorient @ 13/10

                      Excluding CL games, Lille have won their last 3, and have a 5/1/0 record in their last 6 games. They started the season shocking by not winning in their first 6 games (they lost Hazard to Chelsea and a couple of others) but seem to have turned the corner and have climbed to 7th and 3 points off top spot.

                      Lorient haven't won in their last 8 games and have conceded 16 goals in their last 4 games. A record of 3/6/3 has then in 11th of 20 teams which is lol, but that's France for you! Lorient conceded at least one goal in 83% of their home matches and Lille scored at least one goal in 83% of their away matches. Lorient also haven't beaten Lille in the last 5 meetings.

                      2nd game is Verona home to Cesena @ 9/20

                      Verona are flying and are 5/1/0 for their last 6 games. They've also only lost once in the last 16 winning 11 and scoring at least once in every game this season. They haven't conceded a goal in their last 7 wins. They've a couple of strikers in form with Cacia scoring 10 goals in 13 games this season.

                      Cesena have won just once in their last 7 games; a 3-2 win over the botton club. They've conceded 23 goals this season, which is the 2nd worst in the league. They've scored 82% of their goals at home so aren't finding the net away.

                      Verona's home record is 5/2/0 and Cesena's away record is 0/2/4 so even though odds on, i think 9/20 is still a little generous.

                      Toyed with Rotor Volgograd to beat Khimki @ 9/10 instead of Verona, but think it's a better bet.
                      -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                      Starting bank - 114.5 points
                      Bet - Lille/Verona double @ 117/50
                      At risk - 38 points
                      Yield - 76 or 202 points

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Originally posted by Dice75 View Post
                        Where did he say it was?
                        Why would you bet otherwise? I assume he is trying to win money, not lose it


                        Edit: not trying to be smart here, if there's an answer please tell me
                        Last edited by Hectorjelly; 16-11-12, 01:19.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Originally posted by Hectorjelly View Post
                          Why would you bet otherwise? I assume he is trying to win money, not lose it


                          Edit: not trying to be smart here, if there's an answer please tell me
                          Originally posted by Flushdraw View Post
                          Before anyone jumps down my throat and points out all the wrongs..


                          I'm not a serious bettor and this is only an experiment and a bit of fun.

                          This could go bellyup very easy, and if it does i won't lose too much sleep over it. I'm just doing this for myself, and if i can turn a profit and reach the target i have in mind then happy days, and i'll roll on with the next one and see if there's any serious money to be made!
                          Originally posted by Flushdraw View Post
                          lol i want to bet on singles or doubles and bet 25% of my roll on 1 bet per day. I don't want to bet 50% of my roll. I don't want to bet on 4 bets. I don't want to go broke in 3 days. I don't want to make a million bets. I don't want to switch around sites. I could go on. Shoot me
                          As per above.

                          I'm sure he would like to make money too.

                          Betting can be fun too whist not always becoming a millionaire.

                          I'm sure there are plenty of people on this site who have no children yet, are they all virgins?

                          Comment


                            #14
                            I read the quotes differently than you do. He says he is trying to make money - he wants to see if there is serious money to be made. I don't see how you can think this means he is happy to take knowingly -EV bets

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Originally posted by Hectorjelly View Post
                              I read the quotes differently than you do. He says he is trying to make money - he wants to see if there is serious money to be made. I don't see how you can think this means he is happy to take knowingly -EV bets
                              Of course i'm trying to make money. For ease of everything, i'm keeping to one site and betting singles and doubles only if i perceive them to be favourable imo. If taking a 21/20 shot when it's available at 11/10 elsewhere means it's -EV then so be it, but i'm not going to punt anything where i think it's a big risk of the bet not coming up. I won't be backing any 10/1 shots if i think the price should be closer to 20/1. I'd be confident that all my picks have a better chance of coming up than the price on offer.

                              If i want to bet €10 per point in the future if i think i have the ability to pick out games that i like the look of, then i'll treat it far more serious and not skimp by taking worse prices and won't lump so many doubles in. It's only a log for me to keep track and make me stick to my guidelines. Give me 10 days at least to see if i'm bust, going around in circles or turning a nice profit

                              Comment


                                #16
                                Originally posted by Flushdraw View Post
                                I'd be confident that all my picks have a better chance of coming up than the price on offer.
                                If the market is priced correctly then this won't be true.

                                Comment


                                  #17
                                  Also betting doubles and upwards is not less than optimal if you are on at a better price than it should be, in fact its quite the opposite but just higher variance.

                                  Comment


                                    #18
                                    Unless it's part of some special then betting doubles is sub-optimal 100% of the time.

                                    If you're betting multiples on a 107% book then you're paying a 14.5% over-round on doubles and 22.5% on trebles. It would want to be a very good special to make it worth while.

                                    Comment


                                      #19
                                      ...
                                      "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                      Comment


                                        #20
                                        ...
                                        "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                        Comment


                                          #21
                                          The reason you bet in the first place is because u think you have beat the book.
                                          Therefore you are increasing your edge by adding in doubles.
                                          Variance in singles is ridiculous enough so i don't advocate doing doubles+ as a long term strategy unless staking very small percentages of your roll.

                                          Comment


                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by Flushdraw View Post
                                            Of course i'm trying to make money. For ease of everything, i'm keeping to one site and betting singles and doubles only if i perceive them to be favourable imo. If taking a 21/20 shot when it's available at 11/10 elsewhere means it's -EV then so be it, but i'm not going to punt anything where i think it's a big risk of the bet not coming up. I won't be backing any 10/1 shots if i think the price should be closer to 20/1. I'd be confident that all my picks have a better chance of coming up than the price on offer.

                                            If i want to bet €10 per point in the future if i think i have the ability to pick out games that i like the look of, then i'll treat it far more serious and not skimp by taking worse prices and won't lump so many doubles in. It's only a log for me to keep track and make me stick to my guidelines. Give me 10 days at least to see if i'm bust, going around in circles or turning a nice profit
                                            Tbf judging anything either way on 10 days of 1 pick a day would be kneejerk. Limiting yourself to 1 site and 1 bet per day is putting yourself at an immediate disadvantage in a sport that's already difficult to beat but gl all the same.
                                            Profit before people.

                                            Comment


                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide to... View Post
                                              Good luck with this!

                                              Would this longish-odds type of bet not have a huge risk of ruin with the betting strategy though? i.e. would you be better sticking to low odds decent value bets rather than trying to find mis-priced outsiders? - purely from a risk of ruin perspective rather than an optimal betting approach
                                              I really think that 13/10 was just too good a price to turn down because i'd price it close to Evs. I was also going to put it in as a single and just leave the other games alone but if this comes in and i'm sitting on 202, then if i lose 25% on my next bet then i'm on 152 and if i lose 25% of the bet the following day, i'm on 114 so it's a case of back to where i was. I'll definetly have a clearer picture in a weeks because i'm keeping tabs on some other games that i fancied each day and seeing was i right with the pricing.

                                              I have a ton of betting leaks anyway, so hopefully iron them out along the way and see where it takes me.

                                              6 consecutive wins on 4/5 bets would turn a 100 bank into a 300 bank betting 25% each game. I'm going to have a few doubles that bring the bets up to ~2/1 just to juice it up a little

                                              Comment


                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by The Situation View Post
                                                Tbf judging anything either way on 10 days of 1 pick a day would be kneejerk. Limiting yourself to 1 site and 1 bet per day is putting yourself at an immediate disadvantage in a sport that's already difficult to beat but gl all the same.
                                                Don't disagree with any of this. Does someone starting out in poker put their roll across 3/4 of the easiest sites and play at the best time of day on each site, or would they just put it on one site and dip their toes to get a feel for it? That's what i'm doing here.

                                                Comment


                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by Flushdraw View Post
                                                  Don't disagree with any of this. Does someone starting out in poker put their roll across 3/4 of the easiest sites and play at the best time of day on each site, or would they just put it on one site and dip their toes to get a feel for it? That's what i'm doing here.
                                                  From some of your previous posts id assume you have been dipping your toes in sports betting for a while. If your were to pick one site for football betting it should be pinny, sbo or some other decent bookie who lay much better books than the regular books.
                                                  Anyway best of luck all the same

                                                  Comment


                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by Flushdraw View Post
                                                    Don't disagree with any of this. Does someone starting out in poker put their roll across 3/4 of the easiest sites and play at the best time of day on each site, or would they just put it on one site and dip their toes to get a feel for it? That's what i'm doing here.
                                                    Pretty simple to put your bankroll in moneybookers instead of Bwin.

                                                    The rules you arbitrarily gave yourself at the start have made it so you have no long term chance at making profit so not much point looking at it as an experiment, as a bit of fun sure.

                                                    Comment


                                                      #27
                                                      Hey FD, A league ive been following for a couple of seasons now on Friday nights is the Dutch Jupiler League and in particular over 2.5 goals in games. Think it was 2 or 3 weeks ago all 8 games obliged, now the odds obv aren't geat but I usually choose a double, for eg: tonight im on the games at Helmond Sport v FC Volendam and SC Telstar v SC Veendam, the double pays a shade over 5/4 (PP). Its a great league for boosting a bankroll unfortunately I proceed to piss it all away on the Sat/Sun
                                                      Have a look and someone like yourself interested in doing homework on it will make it worthwhile. Good luck, will watch the thread with interest.

                                                      Comment


                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by Pistol Peter View Post
                                                        From some of your previous posts id assume you have been dipping your toes in sports betting for a while. If your were to pick one site for football betting it should be pinny, sbo or some other decent bookie who lay much better books than the regular books.
                                                        Anyway best of luck all the same
                                                        Yep of course i bet on football and other sports, but i've never done a lot of research into games and strictly stuck to betting. I've also never laid a bet in my life and have no idea how to do it. I don't mix in circles with guys that regularly punt 5 figure sums on games and have 6 figure swings so you're obviously more in tune with how things work etc. I've yet to even go down the road of betting/laying and all my bets are just short term bets hoping to make a few quid and to give me interest in a game so i can watch it. This attempt is different.

                                                        Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                                        Pretty simple to put your bankroll in moneybookers instead of Bwin.

                                                        The rules you arbitrarily gave yourself at the start have made it so you have no long term chance at making profit so not much point looking at it as an experiment, as a bit of fun sure.
                                                        It's not simple Keane. It's not simple at all as i've said a few times in this thread. I have money in Moneybookers. It's linked to Bwin and about another 20 poker/betting sites so i could quite easily move money around. I don't have the discipline to only stick to what bets i want etc. I've already punted on X-Factor/Darts/Football since i started this, but i'm only doing the football bets on Bwin. Where did i mention long term anyway? I said i'm hoping to take out 20% every time i reach 3 times my starting bank so i'm hoping for some short term/freerolling bets. It's an experiment and it's an attempt to see if i have any knowledge or discipline to make any future betting profitable in the long run.

                                                        tbh, i'm not going to respond to any more posts relating to ins and outs of betting and why i'm doing it. I said in the OP i know i'm not doing it optimum, i'm just keeping a log for myself and it's a bit of fun. If anyone wants to comment on any bets or suggest a bet, then great but let's leave the rest of it because i'm not getting into it anymore.

                                                        It's a personal log and that's why i started it. It's not the be all and end all of betting. I'm only having some fun while hoping to turn a profit and reach a target and if i blow the lot, i'll not lose 1 wink of sleep over it.

                                                        Comment


                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by Percy007 View Post
                                                          Hey FD, A league ive been following for a couple of seasons now on Friday nights is the Dutch Jupiler League and in particular over 2.5 goals in games. Think it was 2 or 3 weeks ago all 8 games obliged, now the odds obv aren't geat but I usually choose a double, for eg: tonight im on the games at Helmond Sport v FC Volendam and SC Telstar v SC Veendam, the double pays a shade over 5/4 (PP). Its a great league for boosting a bankroll unfortunately I proceed to piss it all away on the Sat/Sun
                                                          Have a look and someone like yourself interested in doing homework on it will make it worthwhile. Good luck, will watch the thread with interest.
                                                          There's a ton of good sites i've been looking at that are big into the over 2.5goals. It's also something i want to get into. Have already been doing my homework there too

                                                          Comment


                                                            #30
                                                            Think I'll follow you Tony as its sure to result in lots of monies now after all this build up

                                                            Comment


                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by Flushdraw View Post
                                                              6 consecutive wins on 4/5 bets would turn a 100 bank into a 300 bank betting 25% each game. I'm going to have a few doubles that bring the bets up to ~2/1 just to juice it up a little
                                                              The chance of winning 6 55% events in a row is less than 3%

                                                              Comment


                                                                #32
                                                                If you want a personal log without people commenting get a blog, or a pen and paper. Dunno why you'd bother doing it on a public forum when you're going to get snippy with everyone who comments on it.

                                                                GL anyway.

                                                                Comment


                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                                                  If you want a personal log without people commenting get a blog, or a pen and paper. Dunno why you'd bother doing it on a public forum when you're going to get snippy with everyone who comments on it.

                                                                  GL anyway.
                                                                  lol people are pointing out what i already know and what i've already posted on, especially things i've pointed out straight away. I've replied to everyone and it's all off topic because i'm going around in circles. If i wanted to take it really serious and have a long term goal, i could easily use a Moneybookers roll, pick whatever number of bets i liked, bet whatever % of my roll i liked (or is optimum) and bet on whatever site is offering the best odds. I know how betting works, but that's not what i'm trying to do here. I've done a bit of research into games i want to bet on, decided which 1 or 2 i think offers the best value and i'm going with them and seeing where it leads.

                                                                  If i'm still running after 30/40 bets, i can go back now and compare my bets with the prices that were offered v the result of the game and see if i've managed to find a small edge. If i bust in a few days (like i have done in other trial runs) then so be, i'll just stick to punting occasionally and having fun. But for now, i've a plan and i want to see how it runs. Like everyone else who starts a personal log, not everyone does everything by the book. It doesn't bother me missing out on the odd fraction of % here and there for this. The results of the games i picked will be what i'm more concerned about when i look back over it, win or lose.

                                                                  Comment


                                                                    #34
                                                                    It's hard for people to read something on a poker forum and not comment where it could be improved on, just a natural reaction and a main reason why this site is great. General consesus is about 2% of your role per bet, gives you less than 1% risk of ruin if your betting at 5% edge. So as you can guess theres a strong chance you'll bust even if they're winning bets so don't be afraid to try again if your enjoying it and of course best of luck!

                                                                    Comment


                                                                      #35
                                                                      Nothing like a sports betting thread to attract the buzz kills!

                                                                      Comment


                                                                        #36
                                                                        Originally posted by KK82 View Post
                                                                        Nothing like a sports betting thread to attract the buzz kills!
                                                                        Check out Teddies log to see how it is done imo.
                                                                        ﴾͡๏̯͡๏﴿

                                                                        Comment


                                                                          #37
                                                                          Originally posted by Flushdraw View Post

                                                                          Lille away to Lorient @ 13/10

                                                                          Verona home to Cesena @ 9/20
                                                                          Disaster here. Lille were beaten and Verona could only draw. Some work to be done!

                                                                          Comment


                                                                            #38
                                                                            First game up today is Rubin Kazan away to Alania Vladikavkaz @ 67/100

                                                                            Rubin are in flying form on the back of 5 straight wins. They don't draw games with no draws in 16 games, so they win or lose. They won't lose against Alania. Alania have lost their last 4 games, and have drawn 3 and lost 8 of their last 11. This would sicken me if it goes any other way than a comfortable away win

                                                                            Next game, Bayern Munich away to Numberg @ 3/10

                                                                            Don't think the bookies have this game marked up too wrong, but i still think 3/10 is a good price and it could be 1/5. Bayern have won 10 from their 11 league games this season and kept a clean sheets in their last 8 wins. Their away record is 5 wins from 5, scoring 15 and conceding 0. Numberg are sitting 4th bottom, and beat Wolfsburg (who are below them) 2 games ago. Before that they drew 1 and lost 6 of their last 7 games. Again, a comfortable away win should be on the cards here

                                                                            Starting bank - 76 points
                                                                            Bet - Rubin/Bayern double @ 117/100
                                                                            At risk - 19 points
                                                                            Yield - 57 or 98 points

                                                                            Comment


                                                                              #39
                                                                              Bayern need to get the finger out. 1-1 with just over 15 mins to go. Rubin 2-0 up so hoping for a late goal or 2 for Bayern

                                                                              Comment


                                                                                #40
                                                                                So a 3/10 shot let me down by being held to a draw Haven't seen a touch like mine since Finkels

                                                                                Anyways, let's carry on. Taking a flyer on South American today to try and get us back to starting stack. Not working out as i had hoped, so we're going to try and spin it up now. Keeping it short because i'm playing a few tables and hard to type

                                                                                Velez Sarsfield home to Boca Juniors @ 19/20

                                                                                Velez are sitting top of the league having won their last 5 games. They're unbeaten in their 8 home games so far this season so carrying a bit of form. Boca are on a bit of a slide. After winning 6 and drawing 3 of their first 9 games, they've now won just 1 of their last 9 games, and only won once away from home all season.

                                                                                Flamengo home to Palmeiras @ 21/20

                                                                                Flamengo have won their last 2 and are unbeaten in their last 6 while Palmeiras have lost 3 and drawn 1 of their last 4. They've only won 3 times in 17 away games this season so hoping they don't increase that here. Lumping these 2 together is by no means a formality but the need to win is sneaking in!

                                                                                Starting bank - 57 points
                                                                                Bet - Velez/Flamengo double @ 3/1
                                                                                At risk - 14.25 points
                                                                                Yield - 42.75 or 100 points

                                                                                Comment


                                                                                  #41
                                                                                  this one didn't go to plan! gl in the next!
                                                                                  Go big or go homeless.

                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                    #42
                                                                                    Originally posted by mdoug View Post
                                                                                    this one didn't go to plan! gl in the next!
                                                                                    Nothing has gone right so far. Proved to myself i suck at football bets and won't be thinking about a change in career! Gonna play it out as planned anyway and see if i can get something out of it!

                                                                                    Dropped below half my starting stack, so as mentioned i'm switching to betting 50% degen style. Crash and burn in style imo

                                                                                    Going with a double Pisa home to Sorrento @ 47/100 and Lanus away to Belgrano @ 7/5

                                                                                    Starting bank - 42.75 points
                                                                                    Bet - Pisa/Lanus double @ 253/100
                                                                                    At risk - 21 points
                                                                                    Yield - 21.75 or 95 points

                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                      #43
                                                                                      Originally posted by Flushdraw View Post
                                                                                      Going with a double Pisa home to Sorrento @ 47/100 and Lanus away to Belgrano @ 7/5

                                                                                      Starting bank - 42.75 points
                                                                                      Bet - Pisa/Lanus double @ 253/100
                                                                                      At risk - 21 points
                                                                                      Yield - 21.75 or 95 points
                                                                                      Ok, we're back in the game thank fk. Both Pisa and Lanus won 2-0 so up to 95 and almost at starting stack so time to hopefully build from here after a few misses. I still suck, but getting a bit more of a sweat now

                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                        #44
                                                                                        Originally posted by Flushdraw View Post
                                                                                        Nothing has gone right so far. Proved to myself i suck at football bets and won't be thinking about a change in career! Gonna play it out as planned anyway and see if i can get something out of it!

                                                                                        Dropped below half my starting stack, so as mentioned i'm switching to betting 50% degen style. Crash and burn in style imo

                                                                                        Going with a double Pisa home to Sorrento @ 47/100 and Lanus away to Belgrano @ 7/5

                                                                                        Starting bank - 42.75 points
                                                                                        Bet - Pisa/Lanus double @ 253/100
                                                                                        At risk - 21 points
                                                                                        Yield - 21.75 or 95 points
                                                                                        if its any inspiration once I get my laptop back and solid internet again I'm gonna be throwing up my new betting... its pretty horrific
                                                                                        very nice tonight, wp
                                                                                        Go big or go homeless.

                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                          #45
                                                                                          Was going to go with a Russian 2nd Division team, and MK Dons but I'm probably going to make 2 mistakes here. First is betting on the latter stages of the Champions League, and the 2nd is backing against United. Will give me a bit of a better sweat anyway!

                                                                                          Galatasary home to Man Utd @ 19/20

                                                                                          Man Utd have topped the group already with 2 games to spare, so will be resting players ahead of crushing QPR on Saturday after their slip against Norwich. Galatasary can all but guarantee 2nd spot with a win and avoid a possible tricky tie away in Braga. Man Utd travel to Turkey without Wayne Rooney, Robin van Persie, Rio Ferdinand, Ryan Giggs, Paul Scholes, Patrice Evra and David de Gea while Nani, Kagawa (knee) and Jonny Evans are also out through injury. Their squad for tomorrow has a lot of unknowns (to me)

                                                                                          Sam Johnstone, Anders Lindegaard; Rafael, Alexander Buttner, Phil Jones, Tom Thorpe, Marnick Vermijl, Scott Wootton, Michael Carrick, Davide Petrucci, Larnell Cole, Tom Cleverley, Darren Fletcher, Anderson, Nick Powell, Ashley Young, Ryan Tunnicliffe, Javier Hernandez, Joshua King, Danny Welbeck, Federico Macheda.

                                                                                          Going to put Bate home to Lille @ 91/100 in a double.

                                                                                          Lille have been shocking in the CL with 4 defeats from 4 games, scoring 2 and conceding 14. They were shocking at the weekend against Lorient losing 2-0 so will be all over the place in a game they have little or no interest in. Away to Marseille on Sunday is a far more important match. Contrast that to Bate who have played out of their skin this season. Bayern are playing Valencia in the other game, and a draw will put both on 10 points. Bate are sitting on 6 at the moment so anything other than a win could see them miss out with 1 game to play. They'll be going all out for a win hoping to have their fate in their own hands going into their final game.

                                                                                          Starting bank - 95 points
                                                                                          Bet - Galatasary/Bate double @ 68/25
                                                                                          At risk - 23.75 points
                                                                                          Yield - 71.25 or 159.5 points

                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                            #46
                                                                                            Yeah knew i should have left the CL alone. If anything, i thought Man Utd would have upset the double, not the other way around! Anyway, going to leave the CL alone for Wednesday and instead go for a couple of games in leagues we'll all be familiar with.

                                                                                            First up we have to go to the 7th tier of the Football League to find the game between Ashton United and Ilkeston FC. Ashton have won their last 4 games scoring 3 goals in each, and won 4 of their last 5 games scoring 16 goals in the process to climb to 2nd in the league. Their opponents have failed to win in their last 8 which incl 4 defeats and their away record shows just 1 point from 6 games. They sit 2nd bottom on goal difference. Easy home win imo.

                                                                                            Ashton United to beat Ilkeston at home @ 11/20

                                                                                            Next stop is Paraguay where we're going to back the League leaders Nacional away to Sol De America. Nacional are in flying form having won their last 5 games (incl away to the league leaders 2 weekends ago) so their morale should be excellent having won 8 from their last 10 to climb to the summit after a shakey first half of the season. They've the best away record in the league and have won their last 5 away from home.

                                                                                            Sol De America haven't won in 5, and have only 3 wins from 16 so far this season. They draw a lot of their home games (5 from 7) but having only scored 2 goals at home this season, i don't think they'll be able to breach a Nacional defense which will hopefully be in tune with their attacking end and make this a comfortable away win. The bookies have Sol slight favourite for this game so think there's some value in it

                                                                                            Nacional to beat Sol De America away @ 11/10

                                                                                            Starting bank - 71.50 points
                                                                                            Bet - Ashton/Nacional double @ 113/50
                                                                                            At risk - 17.87 points
                                                                                            Yield - 53.6 or 111.8 points

                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                              #47
                                                                                              Looks like it's never going to be profitable going by form in leagues that i know nothing about. Neither of the above came in so going to have to put some more work in. Won't be able to do that for the next few days because heading to Dublin in 2 hours and across to Sheffield for some pokers. In saying that, here's my 2 for tomorrow before i run around getting organised

                                                                                              Hannover 96 to beat Twente at home @ 21/10

                                                                                              Barcelona (Ecuadorian league) to beat Manta at home @ 1/2


                                                                                              Starting bank - 53.6 points
                                                                                              Bet - Hannover/Barca double @ 52/25
                                                                                              At risk - 13.5 points
                                                                                              Yield - 40 or 81.5 points

                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                #48
                                                                                                Stupid bets not coming up for me

                                                                                                Well, let's truck on and see what we can do with our 40 points

                                                                                                Dinamo Zagreb away to NK Zagreb @ 11/25
                                                                                                FC Ingolstadt 04 home to SV Sandhausen @ 1/2


                                                                                                Starting bank - 40 points
                                                                                                Bet - Dinamo/Ingo double @ 29/25
                                                                                                At risk - 20 points
                                                                                                Yield - 20 or 63.2 points

                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                  #49
                                                                                                  Sigh, wheels well and truly off now but still so trying to get a few quid going so let's plough on with

                                                                                                  Stoke home to Newcastle @ 91/100
                                                                                                  NK Maribor away to NK Domzale @ 3/5

                                                                                                  10 point double returns 31 when this comes in

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