Irish Poker Boards
Register Arcade FAQ Members List Calendar Mark Forums Read

Go Back   Irish Poker Boards > Poker > Poker Theory, Strategy and Rulings > Hold 'Em
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 09-03-12, 13:44   #1
AndyFatBastard
Pudgy Bastard
 
AndyFatBastard's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Rigger's pocket
Posts: 9,268
50nl - rate my bluff

I'll follow in HJ's footsteps and try to get some good discussion going here. Played this hand the other day and still not sure 100% how I feel about it.

Villian is playing 24/19/1.5 over 225 hands. I have no notes on him which just means he hasn't done anything bad, good or weird that I've noticed. The only thing that stands out is his low Flop Cbet% of 44%.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
Hero ($52.78)
BB ($65.23)
UTG ($103)
UTG+1 ($50)
CO ($52.89)
BTN ($58.38)

Dealt to Hero K:diamond: Q:spade:

UTG raises to $1.50, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $1.25, fold

FLOP ($3.50) 8:diamond: 7:spade: 3:diamond:

Hero checks, UTG checks

TURN ($3.50) 8:diamond: 7:spade: 3:diamond: A:diamond:

Hero checks, UTG bets $3.50, Hero calls $3.50

RIVER ($10.50) 8:diamond: 7:spade: 3:diamond: A:diamond: 8:spade:

Hero checks, UTG bets $7, Hero raises to $20...


Pretty simple concept for the C/R really - villian reps very little, I still have a very wide range, and the parts of it that are doing this for value are crushing his percieved range. Also I should be more likely to try and get some extra value from my hand in this way because of his tendency to delay cbetting. i.e. he should be firing quite thin on river and calling light enough to compensate for the fact that he is burning money by not betting flops enough.

Thoughts?
__________________
"I canít find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson
AndyFatBastard is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-03-12, 13:51   #2
Bubbleking
Always loved Keano
 
Bubbleking's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 11,100
hate it with a passion!

if he only cbets 44% he is unlikely to cbet when he has not connected with the flop. considering he is taggy a lot of his UTG opening range that doesnt cbet will be a lot of decent Ax combos which i doubt he will fold on that river
Bubbleking is offline   Reply With Quote
2 Thanks From:
Old 09-03-12, 13:58   #3
danutpeddler
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 673
Agree with bubble. A tag won't like wet texture of flop for cbet bluffing.

You say villain reps little, you rep less!!
danutpeddler is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-03-12, 14:01   #4
RBBlogger
Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 414
this is just how I justify bluffing..

I need to have a note on him that he is weak tight (or sometimes the board just calls out for a bluff raise - but this is not the case here) and there are cheaper ways to figure this out without x/r river against an unknown..

Anyways I think your line here is weird as the x/r on the river is repping a full house only.
However if you have a set or two pair on flop, you would probably have lead the turn for protection or x/r turn for value and then when board pairs on river you x/r makes no sense as most regs do not x/r here that often for thin value so its nuts or nothing.

And when its nuts or nothing and the line seems weird then a good reg will always call.

If however he was a weak tight player then it might work, but still its a bad bluff imo..
__________________
RaceBets.com - If your 1st time deposit is Ä50, get Ä70 extra free! (The additional Ä20 sign up bonus is a special offer only available for IPB members - pm me your username)
RBBlogger is offline   Reply With Quote
2 Thanks From:
Old 09-03-12, 14:46   #5
Hectorjelly
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 3,278
Fold pre, then fold then turn. River is ok, I suppose in a way it's mandatory given the bad turn call. I don't know how often he will fold here, at least you know where the nut flush is.

Preflop I would be reluctant to call an utg raise with KQ, your hand will often be dominated; your out of position and you can rarely play top pair with any sort of conviction. This is an auto fold for me against a tight player.

On the turn you are not getting the right odds to hit a diamond, and again are going to be out of position whether you hit it or not. There is a tiny chance you have the best hand, but given the utg raise I doubt it. Calling with the intention of bluffing if you miss isn't great IMO, since he can easily check back.

On the river I kind of like the check raise. You can have a flush or trips a lot easier than he can. Still, an obvious draw missed and you are giving him attractive odds. I don't know exactly how I feel about this, I don't know what your opponent is likely to do. I'd probably fold! I wonder what his value betting range on the river is? If it's extremely tight and polarised you could actually consider calling, which would look crazy.

Last edited by Hectorjelly; 09-03-12 at 14:48.
Hectorjelly is offline   Reply With Quote
Thanks From:
Old 09-03-12, 15:49   #6
bustamoves
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 506
dont like it at all. this guy bets when he hits and checks when he misses mostly likely.

he wont fold an ace here if he has half a brain and i expect to see Ax+ here an awful lot.

ofc he reps a narrow range but as Danutpeddler says you rep a pretty narrow range aswell (unless i am missing something crucial here which could easily be the case)

just one more thing off topic

i see your converter doesnt convert the suit symbols -i have the same prob and its partly the reason i dont post more hands-i play on entraction and use Deucescracked Hand Converter but would love to find a better converter- if anyone has any solutions that would be great.....dont know if there is an alternative converter for Entraction--havent found one yet
bustamoves is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-03-12, 16:21   #7
Lplated
Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 936
I don't fully agree with the others - I like your line but I don't like the player you choose to do it against, and I think your bet sizing on the river is out a bit.

1) the Villian - 6 handed, his stats are ok i think, with exception of cb figure. Think low cb here indicates he checks most of time when he misses and some of the time when he hits, to trap. Problem with picking him is you are OOP to someone who you really want to see what his flop actions are.
Second problem with picking him is that his agg factor at 1.5 is low enough to indicate he's betting with something a lot of the time, and all the more so when he has checked one or more streets already.

2) River raise - 10.50 in pot plus his 7 and your 20 = 37.50, he has to call (20-7) = 13, so you're giving him almost 3 to 1 - in a hand where you haven't shown much strength. When he factors in the times you bluff, the times your str8 draw missed, the times your flush draw missed and balances that against his A [most likely i think], you're making it too easy for him to call.

I think either show some muscle earlier and/or raise more on the river.
Lplated is offline   Reply With Quote
Thanks From:
Old 10-03-12, 12:46   #8
AndyFatBastard
Pudgy Bastard
 
AndyFatBastard's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Rigger's pocket
Posts: 9,268
Quote:
On the river I kind of like the check raise. You can have a flush or trips a lot easier than he can. Still, an obvious draw missed and you are giving him attractive odds. I don't know exactly how I feel about this, I don't know what your opponent is likely to do. I'd probably fold! I wonder what his value betting range on the river is? If it's extremely tight and polarised you could actually consider calling, which would look crazy.
Ii's funny you should mention that, because villian timed right down until he had 8 seconds left and then shoved. I briefly considered calling.
__________________
"I canít find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson
AndyFatBastard is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-03-12, 13:37   #9
Bozzer
Member
 
Bozzer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 274
Preflop is bad.

I prefer xr or xf turn.

Your river line isn't terrible, but I don't really like it. The sizing is too small and xr turn, bomb river is a more believable line.
Bozzer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-03-12, 13:34   #10
TommyGunne
Member
 
TommyGunne's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,238
Fold pre, fold turn, don't hate river also. Agree with bozzer that I'd like it bigger though. Other two streets are real bad though.
__________________
Foldaramus et foldarabimus
TommyGunne is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-03-12, 13:10   #11
AndyFatBastard
Pudgy Bastard
 
AndyFatBastard's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Rigger's pocket
Posts: 9,268
Tommy: I can appreciate why I should fold pre, but do you not think calling turn with the intention of c/r any river is good? I think that villian bets this turn with close to 100% of his range, so I have established he is predictable. I have two obvious ways to exploit this, one is raising turn and the other raising river. I decide that raising turn isn't great because I think a lot of the hands he should fold to a turn bluff (i.e. pocket pairs) aren't in his range, because he would have bet the flop with them.

I guess my mistake was assuming he knew that I knew that he would bet this turn close to 100%. That's the only reason I would check this turn with a flush, set or two-pair instead of leading out. Most of these guys with low cbet%s make a lot of money from guys taking random stabs at turns after they miss a cbet, so I avoid doing that. There wasn't enough history between us to justify this play.

How do people feel about calling his eventual shove? The only thing he reps that beats us is a small pair that he's turned into a bluff.
__________________
"I canít find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson
AndyFatBastard is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-03-12, 13:53   #12
DeadParrot
Grand High Wizard
 
DeadParrot's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 17,381
Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyFatBastard View Post

How do people feel about calling his eventual shove? The only thing he reps that beats us is a small pair that he's turned into a bluff.



I'm not 100% sure I understand you here.
He shoves after you raise otr and you want to call?
$1.50+$3.50+$20 =$25
You have >50bbs left on the river and call it off with K high?

I dont like it. At all.
__________________
People say I should be more humble
I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
The OnePlus 5, when you absolutely have to have the best phone in the room, accept no substitutes.
get 20Ä towards accessories or discount one your phone on @ oneplus.net. We all win
DeadParrot is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-03-12, 14:08   #13
Hectorjelly
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 3,278
Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyFatBastard View Post
Tommy: I can appreciate why I should fold pre, but do you not think calling turn with the intention of c/r any river is good? I think that villian bets this turn with close to 100% of his range, so I have established he is predictable. I have two obvious ways to exploit this, one is raising turn and the other raising river. I decide that raising turn isn't great because I think a lot of the hands he should fold to a turn bluff (i.e. pocket pairs) aren't in his range, because he would have bet the flop with them.

I guess my mistake was assuming he knew that I knew that he would bet this turn close to 100%. That's the only reason I would check this turn with a flush, set or two-pair instead of leading out. Most of these guys with low cbet%s make a lot of money from guys taking random stabs at turns after they miss a cbet, so I avoid doing that. There wasn't enough history between us to justify this play.

How do people feel about calling his eventual shove? The only thing he reps that beats us is a small pair that he's turned into a bluff.
You can't be sure he will bet the river. You also don't know that he bets all pocket pairs on the flop, I can easily see him check back 22 or 55 or something.

I also don't see why you can be sure he is betting this turn 100% of the time. A lot of player would, but probably not ones with such low flop cbet %'s.

If a guy has a low cbet stat then I don't think you should counter that by never firing the turn as a bluff/semi bluff, in fact that's exactly what I would do. Firing the turn in your shoes would be standard I think.

It's too early in the morning to consider calling a three bet on the river with king high, if he does have the balls to make this play then I'd just let him have the pot. I really don't seee this as being a bluff too often. Also you lose to small pairs, and it really sucks to call and lose to a bluff. From a GTO perspective you should call in spots like this with the top of your bluff calling range, so i'd prefer it if you'd decided to turn a pair into a bluff rather than k high. Although that said at least you have the nut no pair no anything.
Hectorjelly is offline   Reply With Quote
Thanks From:
Old 12-03-12, 15:57   #14
Hectorjelly
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 3,278
Also, I'd add as some advice. What to do on the river here is interesting, but I actually don't think its that important. Preflop and the turn are really crucial as they are spots that come up time and time again. Pre this is a losing call, as is the turn. You need a very good reason to call out of position with a draw, especially one as face up as yours is. You can come up with whatever fancy excuses you want to justify making bad calls on one street, but it's something that has far more effect on your winrate then the occasional weird bluff.
Hectorjelly is offline   Reply With Quote
Thanks From:
Old 12-03-12, 16:56   #15
AndyFatBastard
Pudgy Bastard
 
AndyFatBastard's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Rigger's pocket
Posts: 9,268
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hectorjelly View Post
Also, I'd add as some advice. What to do on the river here is interesting, but I actually don't think its that important. Preflop and the turn are really crucial as they are spots that come up time and time again. Pre this is a losing call, as is the turn. You need a very good reason to call out of position with a draw, especially one as face up as yours is. You can come up with whatever fancy excuses you want to justify making bad calls on one street, but it's something that has far more effect on your winrate then the occasional weird bluff.
Cheers, HJ. This is very sound advice which I will try to take to heart.
__________________
"I canít find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson
AndyFatBastard is offline   Reply With Quote
Thanks From:
Reply

  Irish Poker Boards > Poker > Poker Theory, Strategy and Rulings > Hold 'Em

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT. The time now is 22:49.