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Old 09-03-12, 04:53   #1
Hectorjelly
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Best line on river?

I have queens this time, I somehow managed to not get dealt AKo for a change

I make it 1.50 utg + 1

Villain 1 calls in cutoff

Villain 2 calls from sb.

5.50 in the pot. The board is a safe looking 336. No Flush draw.

Check, I bet 4.50. They both call.

Turn is a J. We all check.

River is a 4. Check, I bet half the pot. Villain 1 slightly more than min raises me. Villain 2 folds, and its up to me. There's quite a bit more to go in, but I don't think there is any case to be made for shoving. Fold or call? - I also could have checked this river, in which case I would probably call the buttons bet.

My notes on Villain 1 are (I've even left in the spelling errors):

cllled 3bet with atO
OPEN LIMPED BNUTTON
cold 4bet JJ

I don't know this player very well, these notes are from a while ago. He didn't buy in for a full stack, and hadn't been playing very aggressively.

I checked the turn for a number of reasons. Firstly, that jack is actually a pretty bad card. Any pair under me is now going to probably fold to a bet. I'm also concerned that one of the players already has me beat; there are no draws and not many cards I don't mind seeing on the river so I'm happy to check. A 4 is actually not a great card.
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Old 09-03-12, 05:10   #2
bustamoves
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ya not a great scenario but i call anyway. i expect to see this clown with a random jack and weird stuff enough to call but ofc know i'll see the ol trips, str8 or full a fair bit.

thinks it's a call but could be wrong

Last edited by bustamoves; 09-03-12 at 05:18.
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Old 09-03-12, 06:12   #3
cardshark202
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I assume no timing reads then? This is close because his raise was so small. I call purely because I don't think he checks back his strong hands on the turn 3 ways. If he checks back trips on the turn, he will most likely just call with them on the river as the most likely trips to check back are trips with a weak kicker and anyone checking them back there is probably overly cautious.
Anyway call. If you're not in you can't win.
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Old 09-03-12, 07:39   #4
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Pot before river = 5.5 [pre flop] + 13.5 (4.5 X 3 flop bet) = 19

River, you bet half, get min raised, so 19 + 9.5 + 20 (ish) = 48.5

Call costs you 20 - 9.5 = 11.5; Odds 48.5/11.5 = 4.2 to 1

I think this is a call, couple of reasons in no particular order,
1) Your turn check suggests to him you didn't like the J,
2) Your notes suggest he values A x hands too highly, and that he goes to town alltogether with medium to big pairs
3) To a player like him, your hand looks like an A,k which missed
4) At 4.2 to 1 he only has to bluff minimally for your call to be correct

I don't think you'll see a straight here too often, but you will have "cleverly" played houses, Aj [which didnt 3 bet this time...], and pairs less than J which want your A,k/A,q to pay off.

Players that 3bet with A,10o and 4 bet cold with JJ don't strike me as the sort who also min raise the river with the nuts or close to the nuts, but whether he intended to or not the odds he's giving you mean you can't fold here.
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Old 09-03-12, 14:38   #5
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my analysis of the notes you took are
1. he calls with marginal hands
2. he raises when he thinks he is ahead

so there is no bluffs in his range and you are up against his value range... You just need to figure out is there enough Jx in his range to justify the call here.. Wont most fish here just call with weak jack here though?, so only Jx hand he may raise with is AJ maybe KJ

man o man i hate paying off fish in spots like this!

Here is poker stove, I have added in a slow played trips hand A3s, if I take it out, your equity rises to 20.6%


Board: 3c 3h 6d Jc 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 19.355% 19.35% 00.00% 6 0.00 { QhQs }
Hand 1: 80.645% 80.65% 00.00% 25 0.00 { 66, 44-33, AJs, A3s, KJs, 75s, 75o }
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Old 09-03-12, 14:59   #6
Hectorjelly
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cardshark202 View Post
I assume no timing reads then?
It didn't seem like a bluff, but I already knew there was no chance he was bluffing here really anyway. I was happy enough with the fold until I started wondering what he would do with a hand like KJ or AJ. He probably does float AJ on the flop; don't know about KJ but I wouldn't be surprised.

I think this is pretty close because I don't beat much, but I am getting very tempting odds and there is a small chance he has a jack.
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Old 09-03-12, 15:11   #7
bustamoves
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RBBlogger View Post
my analysis of the notes you took are
1. he calls with marginal hands
2. he raises when he thinks he is ahead

so there is no bluffs in his range and you are up against his value range... You just need to figure out is there enough Jx in his range to justify the call here.. Wont most fish here just call with weak jack here though?, so only Jx hand he may raise with is AJ maybe KJ

man o man i hate paying off fish in spots like this!

Here is poker stove, I have added in a slow played trips hand A3s, if I take it out, your equity rises to 20.6%


Board: 3c 3h 6d Jc 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 19.355% 19.35% 00.00% 6 0.00 { QhQs }
Hand 1: 80.645% 80.65% 00.00% 25 0.00 { 66, 44-33, AJs, A3s, KJs, 75s, 75o }
i think its incorrect to completely rule bluffs out of his range and we must also inlcude more hands he 'thinks' could be ahead.

i agree his range is most likely skewed toward a value range but there will surely be at least some bluffs+just plain weird shit that if we add them in your Stove will make it a (somewhat) marginal call. (my stoving would have more jx combo's but it would also include slowplayed play KK+AA so i think the results would be similar)
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Old 09-03-12, 15:15   #8
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I spite call
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Old 09-03-12, 15:43   #9
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Bet more on the river. Half pot leaves you open to stuff like this. Make it look like it could be a bluff. Bigger sizing makes it an easier bet fold too. I think you will get a lot of calls too as your line is strange in their eyes.

I call just for the cheap info. He has a few bluffs occasionally thinking you cannot have a nut type hand and aj sometimes trying to eek some value out too.
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Old 09-03-12, 15:50   #10
Kim Huybrechts
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Does nobody bet the turn. Floating is turning into an epidemic lately. Everyone is at it.
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Old 09-03-12, 16:12   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hurricane Fly View Post
Does nobody bet the turn. Floating is turning into an epidemic lately. Everyone is at it.
Not betting the turn isn't floating
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Old 09-03-12, 16:14   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flushdraw View Post
Not betting the turn isn't floating
he means the 2 players calling his cbet on the flop are floating...

im calling the river raise fwiw but i would also have bet the turn.
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Old 09-03-12, 16:23   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gillespie101 View Post
he means the 2 players calling his cbet on the flop are floating...

im calling the river raise fwiw but i would also have bet the turn.
Either player could have a mid over pair or a piece of the flop. I don't think it's always a float but it's pretty usual to call 1 bet on that flop with most of what you called pre with.
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Old 09-03-12, 16:24   #14
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I love that you leave your notes in completely unformatted, all mine look exactly like that too

I think this is only a call if you think he'll float you with AJ or KJ and value raise it here into 2 players (albeit one who he is pretty much certain to beat so it is effectively only one player he's concerned with), I think you'll need a good reason to believe he's capable of this when we can actually use one of the notes to infer the opposite, that he open limped the button isn't hugely telling but it does show a somewhat passive tendency in his game, enough for me to believe he probably isn't going to value raise light/overplay his hands. It's somewhat close given price, which gives us both tempting odds and makes it slightly more likely he's going for thin value (or wants to raise but is too afraid to put in a chunk of money which would be more likely his thought process). So yeah, given note and the fact he isn't full stacked and is playing quite passively we can infer he's likely the kind of player who wouldn't go crazy with one pair and not sure why and is more likely to just call here. Also, if he's playing really passive, it puts stronger hands in his call/check range on the flop and turn.
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Old 09-03-12, 16:27   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flushdraw View Post
Either player could have a mid over pair or a piece of the flop. I don't think it's always a float but it's pretty usual to call 1 bet on that flop with most of what you called pre with.
yeah i agree but i think the point hurricane was trying to make is that floating has become so regular these days that both players could be doing exactly that so should we be firing the turn instead of checking?
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Old 09-03-12, 16:28   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gillespie101 View Post
yeah i agree but i think the point hurricane was trying to make is that floating has become so regular these days that both players could be doing exactly that so should we be firing the turn instead of checking?
If we think our opponents are floating surely it makes us way more likely to check, unless we think someone is going to double float us in a three way pot?

If someone has air and wants to bluff, we should oblige them! If we bet they just chalk their float down to bad timing and go away. If that's a significant part of their range then we don't want that happening. Although the fact someone overcalled means a floater may be less likely to bet now so we may want to bet to make them fold out any equity they have such as an overcard since we're now negative freerolling if they've given up, but if we think we're being floated here alot even three way we definitely want to check overall. We also check if we just don't think worse hands are going to call us any more, since our double barrel will make us look fairly strong at this stage, so alot of opponents showdown hands will fold, when they may be more likely to call us on the river not fearing another street of betting to come (Although our position does really suck here for that).
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Last edited by Sledgejammer; 09-03-12 at 16:32.
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Old 09-03-12, 16:40   #17
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Didn't read the other posts except for Hurricane's directly above, so apologies if this repeats something previously said (however unlikely that may be!)

I wouldn't consider folding here at all with the info we have.

- your notes don't paint an overly complimentary picture of his play.
For that reason, I'd expect him to raise here with a AJ. The way he played the hand Preflop and on the flop is fairly consistent with this holding.

He might even be raising 77-1010 thinking he's good, given your check on the turn.

- It's fairly unlikely you are on low cards given Preflop bet, so he figures you could be barelling high cards, so he tries to move you off. Or he thinks you could be moved off a pair like 99. Or, he's just pretending he has a nutty hand.

- So few 3s that he's calling preflop with, and the straight's really unlikely.

-You're getting crazy odds to call! There's no way that one of the above is not happening with a 1 in 5 frequency.

Long story shorrt... call!

@Hurricane: Yeah, I bet the turn also I think. Pretty good card for their presumed ranges.
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Old 09-03-12, 17:05   #18
Kim Huybrechts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flushdraw View Post
Not betting the turn isn't floating
I meant they float the flop way more often now than ever before. Which is why I think we find out more if we bet the turn.

I'll try to speak slowly from now on
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Old 09-03-12, 17:12   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hurricane Fly View Post
I meant they float the flop way more often now than ever before. Which is why I think we find out more if we bet the turn.

I'll try to speak slowly from now on
I can't understand your Wexford accent, cheers
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Old 09-03-12, 17:44   #20
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Turn is a must bet imo, but not to find out stuff or because people float. No one floats multi-way here, and this would be a reason to check rather than bet. I bet turn for pure value.
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