Awkward spot in $200k gtd sat

[lowkicker]

Hi, guys, I was playing the $10 r/b sat for the $215 $200k gtd, and found myself in a bit of an awkward situation.

Top 2 were getting tickets and we were 3 handed. With blinds at 800/1600 and 15min levels, the CL on 55k min raises the BTN (same as every time) and the SB (on about 30k) calls, i look down at AJo (24k)

Notes on other players- CL is a LAG and has gotten out of line with weak aces. Other stack is a TAG, showed a steady upwards graph and hasn't had many hands go to showdown.

What would you do?

[PortOfTheYokes]

easy shove. you said btn is a lag so he has a wide range and you could be called by a lot worse . just a cooler if he shows up with ak/q....

[alanmc101]

Great spot to pick up chips uncontested, shovage nh

[lowkicker]

Great spot to pick up chips uncontested, shovage nh

That's what first went through my head, and in a tourny it's a ship all the time for me.. But seen as though we're on the bubble of a sat, is there anything to be said about letting them fight it out? Cheers Alan

[lowkicker]

easy shove. you said btn is a lag so he has a wide range and you could be called by a lot worse . just a cooler if he shows up with ak/q....

Ya btn is a crazy German dude, and has only gotten to this point from pure aggression paying off. I wasn't so much concerned about his raise as I was the flat from the sb, he seemed competent so I wonder what percentage of the time he's thinking I'm shoving there, given the dynamic to that point?

[alanmc101]

Na I dont think so, theres no guarantees they'll play a big pot here. Im shoving here every time cos you're gonna get so many folds..you have to abuse the bubble/the fold equity you have in sats as much as possible. If the sb flatted aa here and you got unlucky, its jus a cooler. Did you have any reads on the flat from the sb, had he done it before or was he jamming/folding with this stack? Its a little strange that he'd flat a 20bb stack but bad players do it all the time with marginal hands when it really should be all in or fold.

[lowkicker]

Na I dont think so, theres no guarantees they'll play a big pot here. Im shoving here every time cos you're gonna get so many folds..you have to abuse the bubble/the fold equity you have in sats as much as possible. If the sb flatted aa here and you got unlucky, its jus a cooler. Did you have any reads on the flat from the sb, had he done it before or was he jamming/folding with this stack? Its a little strange that he'd flat a 20bb stack but bad players do it all the time with marginal hands when it really should be all in or fold.

True there's no guarantees they'll play a big one.

No specific reads, he had only played a few hands but each were to ko shorties when he woke up with a hand behind, so ya he had been shipping or folding up to this point. I suppose the fact that he just flatted could be regarded as a read? Unless he's being very caget surely all pairs<JJ make up the majority of his range set mining, AQ/AJ, even A10 maybe?

Would you say AJ is near the bottom of my range here or do you think it's +ev to shove with all Ax hands?

[alanmc101]

True there's no guarantees they'll play a big one.

No specific reads, he had only played a few hands but each were to ko shorties when he woke up with a hand behind, so ya he had been shipping or folding up to this point. I suppose the fact that he just flatted could be regarded as a read? Unless he's being very caget surely all pairs<JJ make up the majority of his range set mining, AQ/AJ, even A10 maybe?

Would you say AJ is near the bottom of my range here or do you think it's +ev to shove with all Ax hands?

Hes all in with prob 77+ here, he should be shoving even wider but he may not. hes not gonna ever flat a hand like jj here, on very rare occasions he'll be trappin with aa/kk. he prob has some sort of paint hand like kq/kj etc, Im not sure exactly what we should jam here, prob something like 66+ souunds about right, a9+kq/kj...other ppl like doke/midnitekowby would know an optimal range here to jam but i'd be happy jamming the hands above.

[islander32]

This is a really tough spot. Played around with this 1 in sngo wiz a lot and it looks like a marginal fold.
If Button is raising 47.8 %
and only calling your shove with 12.2%
and small blind is flatting 15.7 and calling your shove with 9.6% of hands then our range is.
88+,AQ+.

This is a super easy c.ev jam but I think we have to find a fold here. We're ICM fooked.
There's is the more unconventional option of flatting and evaluating....don't wanna go into that 1 might get flamed.

[Arazi]

Given reads you should be shoving very wide here, any pair, any 2 broadways, any suited connectors/plus one and 2 gappers.
It's actually a great spot for you.

[tenbob]

This is a really tough spot. Played around with this 1 in sngo wiz a lot and it looks like a marginal fold.
If Button is raising 47.8 %
and only calling your shove with 12.2%
and small blind is flatting 15.7 and calling your shove with 9.6% of hands then our range is.
88+,AQ+.

This is a super easy c.ev jam but I think we have to find a fold here. We're ICM fooked.
There's is the more unconventional option of flatting and evaluating....don't wanna go into that 1 might get flamed.

Did you calculate for the insane amount of dead money in the pot we pick up if we can get through the minraiser ?

Looks like an easy shove to me, but you could be 100% correct Noel.

[islander32]

yes ... it's just a super heavy icm spot.... funnily enough if the loose opener calls with a range wider than suggested here then the shove becomes profitable ...
With the ranges I have assigned then a fold is correct. But one can adjust the ranges to make it a shove. Personally I shove in real time all day but ICM doesn't like it.

[islander32]

Given reads you should be shoving very wide here, any pair, any 2 broadways, any suited connectors/plus one and 2 gappers.
It's actually a great spot for you.

Definitely not this.

[Arazi]

It's actually one of the easiest shoves u'll ever come across in NLH. If I was in Heros spot and playing as tight as he must be to be questioning this spot I'd be shoving with about 80% of my range.
The bubble factor counts for both villains also.

[islander32]

It's actually one of the easiest shoves u'll ever come across in NLH. If I was in Heros spot and playing as tight as he must be to be questioning this spot I'd be shoving with about 80% of my range.
The bubble factor counts for both villains also.

So you would completely ignore ICM?

[sligoboi]

It's actually one of the easiest shoves u'll ever come across in NLH. If I was in Heros spot and playing as tight as he must be to be questioning this spot I'd be shoving with about 80% of my range.
The bubble factor counts for both villains also.

Our Bubble factor is much much higher than Btn's and much higher than SB's

[Flushdraw]

I'm shipping here every time. The buttons range is almost ATC seeing as you have this read

the CL on 55k min raises the BTN (same as every time)

He's obviously been picking up blinds with both you and the other stack afraid to tangle with him. From my experience, the most likely range from the SB would KQ/KJ/QJs type hands maybe hoping to get a K,Q high flop and stack the button with TP weaker kicker hands. He could even be playing semi scared with small medium pairs hoping to hit and set rather than shoving pre. I'd be shoving a bit wider than AJ because you're already the short stack, you've no reason to believe they are going to play a big pot and you're far from the win at the moment. I'm snap sticking it in here

[imidg]

Hi, guys, I was playing the $10 r/b sat for the $215 $200k gtd, and found myself in a bit of an awkward situation.

Top 2 were getting tickets and we were 3 handed. With blinds at 800/1600 and 15min levels, the CL on 55k min raises the BTN (same as every time) and the SB (on about 30k) calls, i look down at AJo (24k)

Notes on other players- CL is a LAG and has gotten out of line with weak aces. Other stack is a TAG, showed a steady upwards graph and hasn't had many hands go to showdown.

What would you do?

Dont think a call here is a bad play,as it will nearly always be checked around to the btn and you get to see what the btn and sb do, if they tangle you can get out of the way,if you flop good your in a good position if you dont your still in

[Bubbleking]

Personally I shove but given ICM a fold is probably the better play.

Calling is by far the worst option and should be avoided at all costs

[lowkicker]

Cheers for all the responses guys, I tank jammed thinking that most of the time I'd be taking it down but got 2 calls, BTN KK and SB JJ, SB found the case jack on the flop to give me no chance.. Just a strange flat by him in the first place, one that I'm finding hard to justify apart from him not wanting to get it aipf vs the CL to miss the bubble, I just wanted to get a long term play opinion.. Starting to realize that BTN instabets don't always mean weakness!

[alanmc101]

Wow he flatted jj, lolaments, wp ul, sick sick hand

[ghostface]

Wow he flatted jj, lolaments, wp ul, sick sick hand

+ 1 milly thats hilarious flatting the JJ

[Mellor]

Wow he flatted jj, lolaments, wp ul, sick sick hand

It's very risky, but I don't think flatting JJ is terrible. Its a great spot to induce a shove from the BB. Look how many people said something like "easy shove", or "great spot to get them in". Then when you consider the stack sizes. And the fact that we can lose the hand to the buttion and still get a ticket adds value to inducing.


As for the hand. I really don't like he shove. It could be a good spot to pick up chips, but in a satelite, survival is more important than accumulation. Obviously there is no guarantee they'll play a big pot. But I want to at least give them the chance. Let them take a flop. It's going to be 30% of the SBs stack in the middle.