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Old 15-06-11, 17:29   #41
Wombatman
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gowl View Post
FWIW, my 3-bet-fold suggestion was not a level.

You're 3 betting to get it in with BB. If you 3 bet and button shoves, how can u justify calling? I don't understand the 'don't want to get it in on flop so flat' mentality. If you flat on flop, you can run into the exact situation we have on turn.

If you 3 bet flop to 6k, and button shoves, and BB folds, there's about 29k in the pot and it's costing you about 14k to call. So you need about 33% to call. Are you 33% against buttons range?

KQ 40%*35%= 14%
AA or JJ 35%*5%= 1.75%
AJ 10%*82% = 8.2%
AKss 15%*61% = 9.15%

14+1.75+8.2+9.15 = 33.1%

So it's very close. If you tweak the %s a bit you can obviously come up with a call (I've messed around with the %s a bit, and even if all hands are equally likely, you're only 41%).
If you fold, you're still left with 13k which is plenty to play with (and from what I understand, hero thinks he is quite +EV in this field). I know this sounds like the retarded Phil Hellmuth justification of 'waiting for a better spot' when the math clearly dictates you should play. In this specific situation though, I still don't mind a 3-bet fold.
[btw, if you HAVE to choose either 3-bet-fold, or flat call, 3-bet fold is still the better play. This is because most of the time, the button will muck. So there's no way flatting is the best play.]

So it does come down to if you 3 bet and the button shoves, should you call? Folding getting 2-1 with a set is gross, but shockingly, I think it's the right play. I just think the effect of going broke here is too huge for me to call.
How can you start with 18K, 3Bet to 6k and have 14k left to call with?
If you only min raise to 4K (pointless) you would only have 13k left.
Your ranges are also a mess excluding too many hands and assigning the wrong frequency.
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Old 15-06-11, 17:34   #42
blaaaaaaah
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This has been so over thought. Simple everyone knows Fitz eom is a pretty fast structure so for one there is no way I'm folding this set in this position because of the structure and because such little chance of ever been behind.

I would click back the raise by the bb on the flop and easily just get it in. There is also no way he has kq now over flatting behind. I really do think it's mistake to play this hand passively in this situation and because it's the fast structure Fitz eom. Over complicated situation! Get it in on flop!
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Old 15-06-11, 18:16   #43
Gowl
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wombatman View Post
How can you start with 18K, 3Bet to 6k and have 14k left to call with?
If you only min raise to 4K (pointless) you would only have 13k left.
Your ranges are also a mess excluding too many hands and assigning the wrong frequency.
Sorry, my bad, forgot we only had 18k to start. Yeah with those odds we have to call alright.
Wrt ranges, I can't really see button having anything other than a set, a straight, two pair or an ace+fd
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Old 27-06-11, 00:26   #44
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Originally Posted by blaaaaaaah View Post
This has been so over thought. Simple everyone knows Fitz eom is a pretty fast structure so for one there is no way I'm folding this set in this position because of the structure and because such little chance of ever been behind.
Solid point about the structure, wasn't considered much ITT.

Thanks everyone for your thoughts.

Results; BTN called the shove and tabled AJ vs BB's AT.

Sigh, I play so bad..
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