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Old 28-07-10, 13:19   #21
Bubbleking
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Caf View Post
OPR was not great. 46% or something around that afaik. But ABI was quite low(I think $2.21).
I cant decide if that makes him bad enough to make this a call or bad enough that he slow played a monster and then spaz shoved the river because he has like loads behind into a relatively small pot.

Meh fwiw I fold just because his value range has us crushed and its not a bluff very often
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Old 28-07-10, 16:02   #22
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You don't need sharkscope and much of a hand history to tell you that this guy is a spaz.
If he has kk,88 and to a lesser extent qq he played it like an uber donk.
Min bet. Check. Check call. Mega over bet.

Call every time for me against this guy.
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Old 28-07-10, 16:46   #23
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why would he push with a hand that beats us here?

- because he's a good player who knows that you're a good player who thinks he is a bad player and you are therefore capable of paying him off without the nuts

- because he's a bad player who is playing a hand that crushes you badly

we have no reason to believe he's a good player. in fact all the info available to us (stats, ABI, way he's played this hand) suggests otherwise.

so he's a bad player.

does a bad player turn up with a hand that beats you more often than a hand that does not?

no

so call
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Old 28-07-10, 17:31   #24
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Well I'm back to where I started...call or not? since the structure of this game leaves a whole lot of play does it mean there will be much better chances to get them in, especially for such a monster pot?

Imo there are so few people that will make this bet with light but I guess anything is possible. Most donks in early stages tend to be over agro pre and post, not really thinking out what there next move will be. I think a very high % of fish will Cbet here tbh. There's not too many that are going to be flatting the turn lead and overbetting the river here with nothing. Far too complex/ridiculous a bluff imo so that was never even in my thoughts. Also I has no real read on villain as he has not been in that seat too long.

I don't really use the opr for much, early in tourneys tbh. Just more of a rough outline of what strength of player I'm up against. I think it is alot more relevant towards the later stages when the weaker players start to crack.

I really don't think it's a snap call anyway. Don't think I'm ever snapping 100+bb reraise on riv without the nuts. Am I wrong to be thinking for so long about this hand?

Even without a read, if I give him a range of KQ, 88, QQ, KK, only one of which I beat, should I be folding?
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Old 28-07-10, 17:40   #25
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I never fold sets in a tournament if I can only be beaten by an overset regardless of the donkish way a hand is played. Meh, he probably has it here but if so it's a cooler, I definitely wouldn't be looking to hero fold in a spot like this. There are just too many donks out there so I wouldn't overthink it regardless of the result.
I had been commenting to friends about a month ago that I hadn't run a set into an overset in about 6 months on the flop, (so not counting getting it in and being rivered by overpairs). Then a couple of weeks ago, 3 nights on the trot I run 2's into 5's, 7's into 9's and 9's into A's all flopped oversets.
This was just a horrible run and nothing else. It's just too rare to worry about it and you are definitely losing value if you fold in these spots.
So I call and If he has it then so be it, it won't make a difference to me the next time I'm in this spot. I'd always call.
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Old 28-07-10, 18:09   #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Caf View Post

I really don't think it's a snap call anyway. Don't think I'm ever snapping 100+bb reraise on riv without the nuts. Am I wrong to be thinking for so long about this hand?
no, and I don't think its a snap call, and I think that HJ's reasoning that its QQ is stronger than the reasoning for any other given hand

but you have to make some kind of decision and;

Quote:
Originally Posted by gorrrr72 View Post
There are just too many donks out there so I wouldn't overthink it regardless of the result.
I mean if this is a very big buy in tournie where busting out matters and where there's a chance the other guy isn't a donk then you can let it go, but its not. he's doing something donkish a lot more than he has you beat. if you fold here you're missing out on value in the long run.
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Old 28-07-10, 18:26   #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 8611 View Post
why would he push with a hand that beats us here?

- because he's a good player who knows that you're a good player who thinks he is a bad player and you are therefore capable of paying him off without the nuts

- because he's a bad player who is playing a hand that crushes you badly

we have no reason to believe he's a good player. in fact all the info available to us (stats, ABI, way he's played this hand) suggests otherwise.

so he's a bad player.

does a bad player turn up with a hand that beats you more often than a hand that does not?

no

so call
You dont have enough info to say hes a bad player.
If he has a set here how exactly has he played it badly??

Quote:
Originally Posted by gorrrr72 View Post
I never fold sets in a tournament if I can only be beaten by an overset regardless of the donkish way a hand is played. Meh, he probably has it here but if so it's a cooler, I definitely wouldn't be looking to hero fold in a spot like this. There are just too many donks out there so I wouldn't overthink it regardless of the result.
I had been commenting to friends about a month ago that I hadn't run a set into an overset in about 6 months on the flop, (so not counting getting it in and being rivered by overpairs). Then a couple of weeks ago, 3 nights on the trot I run 2's into 5's, 7's into 9's and 9's into A's all flopped oversets.
This was just a horrible run and nothing else. It's just too rare to worry about it and you are definitely losing value if you fold in these spots.
So I call and If he has it then so be it, it won't make a difference to me the next time I'm in this spot. I'd always call.
Need to look at this hand in a vacuum. Almost everyone apart from HJ so far has just gone omg ive a set i super snap call villain must be a fish without even thinking about the villains range here.

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Originally Posted by 8611 View Post
I mean if this is a very big buy in tournie where busting out matters and where there's a chance the other guy isn't a donk then you can let it go, but its not. he's doing something donkish a lot more than he has you beat. if you fold here you're missing out on value in the long run.
What do you mean if busting out matters.
So if its a bigger buyin you play better do you??

You should be trying to play every single hand as well as possible.
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Old 28-07-10, 19:33   #28
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Villains thinking imo.

OMG!!!! I have teh aces!!!!111eleven
ummm minraise, want to keep people in the hand
Flop 4 K 8r
YESS! no flushdraws, hopefully he has the Kball for Check Raise in the Hisseee!!!
Checked
Shit...ummm check back, slowroll baby...Helmuth Stylie
Turn Q
No way he hits his flush now...., what a player let him catch something, saw that on the WSOP once, If he has J10 or AJ though I better watch out
No way!!! I have two aces!! he'll never get there but just in case, call
river 2
THIS IS WHAT IM TALKING BOUT
I OWN YOU MOTHERFUCKER!!!!!
Hero bets 550
550?
I spit on your 5 fiddy
Here it comes the pain!!!!
ALL IN BABY!!!!
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Old 28-07-10, 19:39   #29
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his whole line is congruent with having QQ.
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Old 28-07-10, 20:24   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Starvin Marvin View Post
You dont have enough info to say hes a bad player.
If he has a set here how exactly has he played it badly??
we do have this info. he is a losing player on OPR and his average buy in is $2.21. he is very unlikely to be a good player at this level.

he has also played this hand very badly if he has a set, his line is getting the least possible value on flop and turn and he will only get paid by a tiny % of our holdings on the river. he has even managed to convince the OP to consider folding part of that tiny %.

as I said above the only way he could be said to play the hand well is if he's trying to make you think he's a donk and getting you to call when you otherwise wouldn't

Quote:
Originally Posted by Starvin Marvin View Post

What do you mean if busting out matters.
So if its a bigger buyin you play better do you??

You should be trying to play every single hand as well as possible.
if its a buy in that makes me uncomfortable I'd be less inclined to take the risk involved in calling here this early and this deep in a tournament. and if the buy in was big enough to make me think that the standard of player in the tournament was better then the chances of him pushing a hand thats a monster in the hope that someone will spaz call are higher, then I'll consider folding.

but if its a small buy in and I'm going to play a large number of these level buy in tournamnets then I'm happy to call and write of the variance the few times I'm beaten because more often than not I'm ahead here

are you honestly saying you fold this hand every time someone pushes like this over it? you have absolutely no information to justify this, so your default position should be call. if you had specific info it might be different, and while I agree the line most resembles QQ, given my reasons for saying he's a bad player above, I think its more other hands than QQ.

in fact his line also looks like 22
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Old 28-07-10, 20:51   #31
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lol at dead parrots answer above
fwiw i think he is not to far wrong either

kings and queens do come to mind here but again bad play
he has minraised so as not to frighten everyone out of the pot
if he has the kings he has flopped a set and is slow playing them
if he has queens he checked the flop because the king frightened him

but this is all speculation.
but one thing for sure is that everyone is calling this shove some with scrunched up faces and others with a flip top head type smiles.
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Old 28-07-10, 20:56   #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Starvin Marvin View Post
You dont have enough info to say hes a bad player.
If he has a set here how exactly has he played it badly??



Need to look at this hand in a vacuum. Almost everyone apart from HJ so far has just gone omg ive a set i super snap call villain must be a fish without even thinking about the villains range here.


What do you mean if busting out matters.
So if its a bigger buyin you play better do you??

You should be trying to play every single hand as well as possible.
I don't feel this way, it's more of a "donks shove with soooo many hands" moment for me. This guy could have sat down and got it in his head he can win any hand with an overbet shove, or thinks you might have AK and KQ is the nuts. If this is a big live tourney I probably fold against someone I know is capable of this but a tourney online I call all day long.
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Old 28-07-10, 21:16   #33
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His min raise pre and huge overshove on the river are enough for me to peg him as an idiot.

I am not overjoyed but I call.

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Old 28-07-10, 21:36   #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Starvin Marvin View Post
If he has a set here how exactly has he played it badly??



Need to look at this hand in a vacuum. Almost everyone apart from HJ so far has just gone omg ive a set i super snap call villain must be a fish without even thinking about the villains range here.
He played it really badly because he failed to build a pot with a set and then made such a massive raise he made Caf consider folding a lower set. You should be building the pot with strong hands, not hoping for the turn and river to blank so you can bet 10 times the pot hoping your opponent has an underset
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Old 28-07-10, 21:50   #35
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Originally Posted by 8611 View Post
we do have this info. he is a losing player on OPR and his average buy in is $2.21. he is very unlikely to be a good player at this level.

he has also played this hand very badly if he has a set, his line is getting the least possible value on flop and turn and he will only get paid by a tiny % of our holdings on the river. he has even managed to convince the OP to consider folding part of that tiny %.

as I said above the only way he could be said to play the hand well is if he's trying to make you think he's a donk and getting you to call when you otherwise wouldn't



if its a buy in that makes me uncomfortable I'd be less inclined to take the risk involved in calling here this early and this deep in a tournament. and if the buy in was big enough to make me think that the standard of player in the tournament was better then the chances of him pushing a hand thats a monster in the hope that someone will spaz call are higher, then I'll consider folding.

but if its a small buy in and I'm going to play a large number of these level buy in tournamnets then I'm happy to call and write of the variance the few times I'm beaten because more often than not I'm ahead here

are you honestly saying you fold this hand every time someone pushes like this over it? you have absolutely no information to justify this, so your default position should be call. if you had specific info it might be different, and while I agree the line most resembles QQ, given my reasons for saying he's a bad player above, I think its more other hands than QQ.

in fact his line also looks like 22
Losing player over how many tournaments??

I agree he hasnt played it the greatest but theres nothing wrong with slow playing a set on that flop.

You shouldnt be playing that high if its going to influence your decision making.

This spot wont come up that often.
22 wont peel the turn much unless he totally handicapped.

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Originally Posted by Hectorjelly View Post
He played it really badly because he failed to build a pot with a set and then made such a massive raise he made Caf consider folding a lower set. You should be building the pot with strong hands, not hoping for the turn and river to blank so you can bet 10 times the pot hoping your opponent has an underset
Yeah the river is silly but slow playing a set on that flop is feasible.
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Old 28-07-10, 21:55   #36
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Yeah the river is silly but slow playing a set on that flop is feasible.
Of course its feasible, HJ was merely pointing out that it would be bad.

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Old 28-07-10, 21:59   #37
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Of course its feasible, HJ was merely pointing out that it would be bad.

Opr
Its not bad though.

If you have the deck crushed its ok to check it there sometimes.
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Old 28-07-10, 22:03   #38
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I'm guessing your set was no good here and that is why you posted the hand.

Would you have posted it if you called and he showed up with k8s?

In this spot where we know little about the villian we have to draw on our experience of playing trends at this level.

In my experience you will see AA, two pairs and mad bluffs, even 22 more than you will see KK,QQ or 88 here. The margin is not massive I'll grant you that, but if you were in this spot ten thousand times and you called each one it would be EV+ IMO.

Why can he show up with KK here and not 22 when you look at all streets?
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Old 28-07-10, 22:04   #39
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Losing player over how many tournaments??
idk. but it suggests he's bad and there's nothing to suggest he's good.

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I agree he hasnt played it the greatest but theres nothing wrong with slow playing a set on that flop.
even if slowplaying the flop (assuming he's hit it) was acceptable he's slow played the turn also which is ridic.

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You shouldnt be playing that high if its going to influence your decision making.
i'm not but we all have dreams of playing / winning a big one. i'm just saying that i mightn't be as willing to take the gamble if there was a lot at stake. here its just meh if i'm beat i'm beat.

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This spot wont come up that often.
22 wont peel the turn much unless he totally handicapped.
nor will you being beat come up this often

ironically enough peeling turn wouldn't be that bad given stack sizes
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Old 28-07-10, 22:07   #40
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I'm guessing your set was no good here and that is why you posted the hand.
i think OP was good actually, but was just taken aback that he thought about folding and posted as a result
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