Football-betting thread

[The C Kid]

Johnson right back, Kelly left-back?

[Opr]

Yeah I presume that is what will happen.

Poulsen

Edit - something like this I would guess.

-------------Reina-------------
Johnson-Skrtel-Agger-Kelly
---------Meirleles-Poulsen
Kuyt--------Lucas ----Jovanovic
--------- Torres

Opr

[The C Kid]

Preferred the earlier team to that one.

Like my Blackpool bets now though.

[The Situation]

Laying Liverpool now!

[Semibluff]

go on the lads!

no messing with ipswich either!

[Solskjaer]

CHA CHING

hope you over analysers didn't talk yerselves out of the easy money. score draw would have suited me better but profit is profit. What will Everton do at Anfield ? this team is all over the shop. Even I underestimated how much

[Solskjaer]

Seriously LOL. Gerard is their drive. I'm surprised his suspension kicked in quite so early. Thought it was one game and then suspension. That Liverpool team will not win tonight, rudderless without Gerrard. People talking them up because they contained a United team moving in 2nd-3rd gear. The Dalglish factor won't hide the fact that they are simply not good enough. They are 12th for a reason (lol blaming Hogdson)
I'm going score draw for my few bobs, but for big investors. I'd deffo lay Liverpool. Mid table battle anything can happen. 3-3 for the big score draw (fewer bobs- love to see the Blacks score the 4th in Injury time)

get your bets on for Saturday before the odds change.

[Guest]

CHA CHING

hope you over analysers didn't talk yerselves out of the easy money. score draw would have suited me better but profit is profit. What will Everton do at Anfield ? this team is all over the shop. Even I underestimated how much

you are wrong about Gerrard btw he is not the rudder
Alonso was the rudder
Gerrard is the big sail you bring out when the wind gets up

[Raheny Red]

Blackpool are dire at home, Liverpool are dire also - especially at away from home. However, I was impressed with their spirited performance with 10 men against United and @ evens they are heading into my mug double for tonight. I'm on Liverpool and Arsenal -1.5

Laughed at!

[The Situation]

Think Birmingham are trading a little short for the derby against Villa at the weekend ~2.57 at the moment. Now Villa have been very poor travelers this season but Birmingham have been quite poor at home too. The thing that interests me is Birmingham's record after midweek ties. Since their arrival into the premier league, they've never won a game after a midweek carling cup/FA cup game and only one win after a 3/4 day turnover premiership game. That win was against Blackpool this Christmas gone who had an equally busy schedule. So in the past two years they've played 16 premiership games after a midweek tie of some sort and only won one.

Villa will have a full weeks rest from their FA cup tie last weekend. Birmingham basically haven't had any let up for almost a month. It's also a tie that Villa have dominated in recent years unbeaten in the last seven winning six of those.

[outdraw]

the situation, where did you get those stats?

[The Situation]

the situation, where did you get those stats?

Just went back over B'hams results over the past few years looking for trends. Soccerway.com is the site I usually use.

[outdraw]

thats dedication to find that record yourself. just a word of warning about soccerway that their shots stats are very unreliable in that they have no consistency in their awarding of stats (soccernet is slightly better). the site has a great layout.

[The Situation]

Don't use the site for anything other than Fixtures/results, find it the most I phone friendly site. I've always been a bit of a freak for statistics, that's what I have my degree in.

[Keane]

Nice post about the Brum-Villa game, what odds would you consider laying Brum at?

Also, Blackpool 7/2 away to WBA is free money no? Or even 11/5 DNB?

[The Situation]

Nice post about the Brum-Villa game, what odds would you consider laying Brum at?

Also, Blackpool 7/2 away to WBA is free money no? Or even 11/5 DNB?

Lay them at current prices on BF or Betdaq, can only see the price drifting out.

Again similar to Brum, having such a quick turnover in games is a huge negative factor for small squads espeicially at this time of year, so wouldn't be ploughing into Blackpool. Price is very tempting still though I agree.

Opinions anyone else?

[Keane]

Paddy Power have an offer through the Sunderland website that you can get them at 3/1 to beat Newcastle at home here:

http://www.safc.com/news/20110114/paddy-power-exclusive_2256213_2265797

Sick value IMO, although the bet is unfortunately capped at £10.

[Donk Magnet]

wow 3/1 nap of the day..

[shano_88]

Everton to beat Liverpool 6-1.

Again max bet is 10.

http://www.paddypower.com/bet?action=go_type&category=SPECIALS&disp_cat_id&ev_class_id=329&ev_type_id=14135&ev_oc_grp_ids=358015&bir_index&AFF_ID=10059894

[HappyasLarry]

Also, Blackpool 7/2 away to WBA is free money no? Or even 11/5 DNB?

Yea, really liking 7/2 about Blackpool, won't be doing any accum's tomoro.... eggs and one big basket for me....

[Guest]

Paddy Power have an offer through the Sunderland website that you can get them at 3/1 to beat Newcastle at home here:

http://www.safc.com/news/20110114/paddy-power-exclusive_2256213_2265797

Sick value IMO, although the bet is unfortunately capped at £10.

Everton to beat Liverpool 6-1.

Again max bet is 10.

http://www.paddypower.com/bet?action...FF_ID=10059894

10 sterling
€12.50 for us! gotta wring out the value

[KevIRL]

Liverpool to beat Everton 3/1 in another enhanced betting thingy

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-betting/This-is-Anfied-Specials/Enhanced-Price-Specials?ev_oc_grp_ids=404327&AFF_ID=10059891

[Semibluff]

all over west brom tomorow. shame no odemwingie but i shall be plowing in regardless.

[The Situation]

all over west brom tomorow. shame no odemwingie but i shall be plowing in regardless.

Reasoning if you don't mind me asking?

[Semibluff]

sure - increasing blackpool a little from their win mid week id still have it in the 1 goal handicap, with west brom odds against.

Now odemwingie is worth about .15 of a goal, which would bring it in a little, but i still think its a handicap out . . . which would be a bet

Now to add to this, blackpool are missing alot of players - not any of their most important players, but with a small squad it cant help.

Add to that they played a tough match mid week, which would go against them
Add to that Wbroms bad results of late (yet not bad performances, man utd at home)
Its an away game for blackpool, Wbrom very good at home
There will be added public hype on such as people saying 7/2 is free money (lol)

All the above are more reasons to get on westbrom, a game which i thought was a bet anyways

Thats roughly why im liking it - (preferred it immediately after the midweek game when it went to 1.86)

[The C Kid]

sure - increasing blackpool a little from their win mid week id still have it in the 1 goal handicap, with west brom odds against.

Now odemwingie is worth about .15 of a goal, which would bring it in a little, but i still think its a handicap out . . . which would be a bet

Now to add to this, blackpool are missing alot of players - not any of their most important players, but with a small squad it cant help.

Add to that they played a tough match mid week, which would go against them
Add to that Wbroms bad results of late (yet not bad performances, man utd at home)
Its an away game for blackpool, Wbrom very good at home
There will be added public hype on such as people saying 7/2 is free money (lol)

All the above are more reasons to get on westbrom, a game which i thought was a bet anyways

Thats roughly why im liking it - (preferred it immediately after the midweek game when it went to 1.86)

Agree with all this. Good post.

[The Situation]

Cheers Semibluff, won't be getting involved but GL.

Birmingham's price has actually shortened, must be a reaction to Bentley and Keane's transfers, only make me want to go in and lay more off, two players who'll clearly be struggling for match fitness. I'll eat my hat if Brum win that game.

[sligoboi]

Just to take the respectability down a notch or two in this thread here's a €5 accumulator I just put on. All are both teams to score. Hate accys usually but my serious betting is done on NFL so it's only for shits and giggles. Works out at just under 96/1

Hull v Barnsley 5/6
Carlisle v Bristol Rovers 8/11
Plymouth v Oldham 8/11
Rochdale v Leyton Orient
Dundee Utd v Hearts 5/6
Motherwell v Inverness CT 4/5
Getafe v Real Sociedad 4/5
St Pauli v SC Freiburg 8/11

[Aya14]

sure - increasing blackpool a little from their win mid week id still have it in the 1 goal handicap, with west brom odds against.

Now odemwingie is worth about .15 of a goal, which would bring it in a little, but i still think its a handicap out . . . which would be a bet

Now to add to this, blackpool are missing alot of players - not any of their most important players, but with a small squad it cant help.

Add to that they played a tough match mid week, which would go against them
Add to that Wbroms bad results of late (yet not bad performances, man utd at home)
Its an away game for blackpool, Wbrom very good at home
There will be added public hype on such as people saying 7/2 is free money (lol)

All the above are more reasons to get on westbrom, a game which i thought was a bet anyways

Thats roughly why im liking it - (preferred it immediately after the midweek game when it went to 1.86)

Agree with a lot of this especially when u add in the likes of the Fulham game where a Carswon clanger meant the result didn't reflect who played the better football.

[Solskjaer]

sure - increasing blackpool a little from their win mid week id still have it in the 1 goal handicap, with west brom odds against.

Now odemwingie is worth about .15 of a goal, which would bring it in a little, but i still think its a handicap out . . . which would be a bet

Now to add to this, blackpool are missing alot of players - not any of their most important players, but with a small squad it cant help.

Add to that they played a tough match mid week, which would go against them
Add to that Wbroms bad results of late (yet not bad performances, man utd at home)
Its an away game for blackpool, Wbrom very good at home
There will be added public hype on such as people saying 7/2 is free money (lol)

All the above are more reasons to get on westbrom, a game which i thought was a bet anyways

Thats roughly why im liking it - (preferred it immediately after the midweek game when it went to 1.86)

disagree with this , the game midweek was huge for Blackpool, 2-1 didnt flatter them. West b played against a United team again in 2nd gear. 7/2 is a great price. Confidence should be factored in here. They showed immense charachter to hit back agianst Liverpool.
West brom are a lay for me at that price. plenty of profit on the footie for me lately so im investing against WBA

[TommyGunne]

Yeah am on west brom as well.

[eagle eye]

I know its the club I follow but surely with Chelsea's patchy form of late and with Rovers improving they are worth a small bet at 16 on Betfair. I'm on it anyways, just couldn't resist at that price.

[Semibluff]

ugh

hate having to back liverpool

[Keane]

Right, retarded question coming up but someone might be able to help me:

I got Everton to win at 6/1 with that Paddy Power special.

I can lay Everton on Betfair at 3.4 (not 100% sure how to read the 3.4 bit either).

Is there some way I can work this to lock in a profit?

[eagle eye]

You would only be able to make roughly the equivalent of your stake by laying 2.2 times your stake on PP.

[The Situation]

Pheeeew, felt very ill for a while during the Villa game what with all the crossbars being hit and Zigic's retarted miss.

Keane, it was max bet €10. I'd just let it ride myself.

[thedini]

Right, retarded question coming up but someone might be able to help me:

I got Everton to win at 6/1 with that Paddy Power special.

I can lay Everton on Betfair at 3.4 (not 100% sure how to read the 3.4 bit either).

Is there some way I can work this to lock in a profit?

Just lay more than your original stake then you are guranteed a profit no matter the result.
Just above the odds on betfair there's a more options button, tick them all including the 'what if' option and play around with whatever figures you want.

[Keane]

Pheeeew, felt very ill for a while during the Villa game what with all the crossbars being hit and Zigic's retarted miss.

Keane, it was max bet €10. I'd just let it ride myself.

Think of it as a theory question...

I'm ashamed to say the money matters to me this week

[The Situation]

interesting article; http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thefootba...e_up_agai.html


Opinions on the big game game today??

[eagle eye]

Tottenham by a goal imo anyways. Really fancy them today.

[The C Kid]

interesting article; http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thefootba...e_up_agai.html


Opinions on the big game game today??

Bit unfair not to mention that Bale picked up a back injury after about 35 minutes of the Everton game at Goodison was clearly uncomfortable and not as mobile as usual and was substituted after about 58 minutes.

I think we'll win today but I'm biased.

[The Situation]

United have been asking for a blitzing away from home this season and Spurs definitely have the talent to do that. Really is an acid test of the strength of their mentality and character or *insert any other cliche about their resolve here*. I think i'm gonna begrudgingly stay away though.

[thedini]

Bet of the Spurs v Utd match for me is both teams to score @ 1.75.

[Guest]

spurs V's utd
1pt ew Dawson FG @40/1

He tends to be the target of corners etc while Crouch gets the main marker

price looks a little big while some other players prices look a bit skinny

[The Situation]

Few companies going 25/1 Inter Milan for the Champions League this year. Pretty crazy IMO. I would have agreed with that price under the Rafa regime as they clearly were unhappy playing under him and it was telling in below par performances. They seem to be back to close to optimum confidence levels under Leonardo now and sweeping team aside with the same ease as they did under Jose. They've also had lots of semi long term injuries this season who are all coming back now so their first team will be remarkably fresh come the latter stages due to playing so little football this season, and this could be telling especially after a world cup year were fatigue plays a big factor imo.

[thedini]

Bet of the Spurs v Utd match for me is both teams to score @ 1.75.

sigh!!

[Semibluff]

sigh!!

when the overs changed massively, i got on just at the off - seems we were both miles off

[Insanodude]

Mallorca at 10/3 vs atletico tonight seems ok ... Think atletico will be reserving a bit for real on Thursday.

[thedini]

I don't know were we miles off, I certainly thought 1.75 was overpriced and that it was probably just one of those days.

[outdraw]

All over the over 2.5 goals in the madrid/mallorca game.

[CheckRaise]

Milan v Cesena (under 2.5 goals @ 2.1)

Udinese v Inter (over 2.5 goals @ 1.95)

[The Situation]

Everton seem to be trading a little short imo(a little above 1.5) for their weekend home tie against West Ham. They've had a pretty awful record this season against teams outside the top 5. They've only picked up 17/48 possible points against teams from sixth place downwards. This would usually be a real sign of relagation certainty but they've picked up 9/18 points against the top 5 which has them relatively safish in the league. Make of these stats what you want but I think it's shows a sign of a talented but lathargic/stale team who find it hard to motivate themselves for low profile games.

They're also still without Cahill and Jagielka, and sold one of their best players to Spurs which can't be good for morale. West ham have Parker back from injury who was missing at the weekend, before that game they looked like their fortunes had turned a cornor and I fancy them to leave Goodison with at least a point this weekend.

[Solskjaer]

Doyle hitting some form, Wolves playing well


Doyle and 2-1 to Wolves for me

[The Situation]

Everton seem to be trading a little short imo(a little above 1.5) for their weekend home tie against West Ham. They've had a pretty awful record this season against teams outside the top 5. They've only picked up 17/48 possible points against teams from sixth place downwards. This would usually be a real sign of relagation certainty but they've picked up 9/18 points against the top 5 which has them relatively safish in the league. Make of these stats what you want but I think it's shows a sign of a talented but lathargic/stale team who find it hard to motivate themselves for low profile games.

They're also still without Cahill and Jagielka, and sold one of their best players to Spurs which can't be good for morale. West ham have Parker back from injury who was missing at the weekend, before that game they looked like their fortunes had turned a cornor and I fancy them to leave Goodison with at least a point this weekend.

Ping

Pretty lol ending to the game, Piquonne scores and gets a second yellow for taking his shirt off in celebration in the 86th minute, and then Everton obv score the equaliser in injury time

[The Situation]

Opposing Milan at a short price at home to Cesena tonight. I don't usually play in Milan games but think the price is off by a decent bit.

Here's a very good piece accounting the reverse fixture earlier in the season were Cesena beat Milan 2-0
http://www.zonalmarking.net/2010/09/...milan-tactics/

Now the fortunes of the two sides have changed a lot since that game and Milan have improved a great deal but there still very susceptible to teams who exploit their wide deficiencies like Udinese did a few weeks ago and Cesena are strongest in these areas.

Milan havent been firing on all cylinders over the past few weeks, maybe feeling the pressure of Inter breathing down thier necks and have a few key injuries in midfield in Pirlo and Boatang,

[Donk Magnet]

Doyle hitting some form, Wolves playing well


Doyle and 2-1 to Wolves for me

dream on willie el nino is back..

[Solskjaer]

Can't access online bookies atm, can someone quite me the 6 goals and over for the United Blackpool game this evening. Blackpool some back 4 issues plus they only know one way of playing. Also Fergie might do something mad at the back tonight. Should be high scoring.

[thedini]

Can't access online bookies atm, can someone quite me the 6 goals and over for the United Blackpool game this evening. Blackpool some back 4 issues plus they only know one way of playing. Also Fergie might do something mad at the back tonight. Should be high scoring.

Don't know if that market exists (can only see over 4.5 gls on Oddschecker)you can get @ 10/3 in a few places, Stan James, Corals etc.

[Pistol Peter]

Can't access online bookies atm, can someone quite me the 6 goals and over for the United Blackpool game this evening. Blackpool some back 4 issues plus they only know one way of playing. Also Fergie might do something mad at the back tonight. Should be high scoring.

Over 6.5 is 20s on bf.

[Solskjaer]

Can't access online bookies atm, can someone quite me the 6 goals and over for the United Blackpool game this evening. Blackpool some back 4 issues plus they only know one way of playing. Also Fergie might do something mad at the back tonight. Should be high scoring.

thanks lads for getting me the odds, nice scoop, missed out on a bigger one by just 1 goal