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    Originally posted by amberleaf View Post
    of course there were two yellow cards,never backed it tho,just spent the last few hours looking back at the 1/4 finals of the rwc,at this point i just cant see how france are going to win v wales
    intresting to see the french team are named already on the rwc website,same as v england which in no surprize.heard there was a little revolt before the england game in the dressing room again not a big surprize,as thats like a national past-time in france!might very well be that the french are getting their act together at long last,could be bad news for wales.was thinking about haveing a spread bet on wales -2 as i was thinking if the french team was to self implode,wales are rutless and could score any amount of trys.if france didnt, then i think it would be close.if its true that the players have more or less taken over the show,then you would think that it less likely to happen.still think wales will win,but not as bullish as i was
    Mattie McGrath wanna-be

    Comment


      Fancy France to beat Wales, they have won 6 of the past 7 ties between the sides. Of course this is different but France are world-class on their day and have the better players overall. They beat England comfortably and would be very confident of beating Wales.

      Comment


        think i'll stick with wales this time,wales are very consistent from the very start of the tourny.and just looking at the stats france will have to improve by a fair way if they stack up imo,in the two hardest games france have had (england,nz)they had a total of 204 tackles but missed 34,(107 tackles made,missed 15 v england,97 tackles made,19 missed v new zealand)thats 1 in 6 tackles missed on average,from what is very recent stats.if they miss that much when they play wales on saturday,then it has to be advantage wales

        on the wales side.their two hardest games (ireland,s.africa)they made a total of 240 tackles and missed 22,or about 1 in 11.
        in the penalties conceded,france in the two games come to 18,.on the other hand wales come to 13,again a little advantage in a key area in what,most people think will be a tight game
        have to wait fo the wales team to be named(priestland took a knock v ireland) and the forecast but if france miss twice as much tackles as wales,and give away about a 1/3 more penalties,well in my view,with the way the wales team is playing at the moment,might just stick to the wales -2 pts
        Mattie McGrath wanna-be

        Comment


          Originally posted by amberleaf View Post
          think i'll stick with wales this time,wales are very consistent from the very start of the tourny.and just looking at the stats france will have to improve by a fair way if they stack up imo,in the two hardest games france have had (england,nz)they had a total of 204 tackles but missed 34,(107 tackles made,missed 15 v england,97 tackles made,19 missed v new zealand)thats 1 in 6 tackles missed on average,from what is very recent stats.if they miss that much when they play wales on saturday,then it has to be advantage wales

          on the wales side.their two hardest games (ireland,s.africa)they made a total of 240 tackles and missed 22,or about 1 in 11.
          in the penalties conceded,france in the two games come to 18,.on the other hand wales come to 13,again a little advantage in a key area in what,most people think will be a tight game
          have to wait fo the wales team to be named(priestland took a knock v ireland) and the forecast but if france miss twice as much tackles as wales,and give away about a 1/3 more penalties,well in my view,with the way the wales team is playing at the moment,might just stick to the wales -2 pts
          While i do like to look at stats myself as they can be very informative one needs to take into consideration a number of other factors to how them stats came about.

          In this instance your using stats from the England / NZ games against France.First of all France had no intentions whatsoever of trying to beat NZ for numerous reasons one obviously easy side of the draw by losing and two they know the chances of beating them twice in world cup would be slim so their was no point going all out to try beat them in group stage(presuming NZ get to Final).Everyone knew that before game and you could see during the game that was case.So you could throw all the stats from that game out the window.

          The England game how many of them miss tackles were very late in the game when France probably taught they done enough? I had backed France and most of the game i taught they were home it was only near the end when they started missing tackles and conceded to make things interesting.To be honest i would say they taught they had it won and switched off(obviously not a good idea) Another thing you need to take into consideration France for most part looked impressive enough againist England and seem to be getting their act together.Be shocked if they miss nearly as many tackles as they have been
          Last edited by corigi; 12-10-11, 09:27.

          Comment


            Originally posted by corigi View Post
            While i do like to look at stats myself as they can be very informative one needs to take into consideration a number of other factors to how them stats came about.

            In this instance your using stats from the England / NZ games against France.First of all France had no intentions whatsoever of trying to beat NZ for numerous reasons one obviously easy side of the draw by losing and two they know the chances of beating them twice in world cup would be slim so their was no point going all out to try beat them in group stage(presuming NZ get to Final).Everyone knew that before game and you could see during the game that was case.So you could throw all the stats from that game out the window.

            The England game how many of them miss tackles were very late in the game when France probably taught they done enough? I had backed France and most of the game i taught they were home it was only near the end when they started missing tackles and conceded to make things interesting.To be honest i would say they taught they had it won and switched off(obviously not a good idea) Another thing you need to take into consideration France for most part looked impressive enough againist England and seem to be getting their act together.Be shocked if they miss nearly as many tackles as they have been
            see what your saying abot the fra/nzd match,but then the match v tonga leaves a few question marks,but when you look at the attitude of the welsh team all the way from the start,couldnt see them takeing the foot off the gas if they were in that same situation.i just think what we have seen from wales is what we are going to get next saturday,and thats a high bar for any team to get to,france are good nuff to get there,but can you trust them to come out and not fuck it up for themselfs some where along the line!also see the 5/2 is starting to go on o/c for aus (v nzl),with most firms going 7 +/-points on the hcp from 8 points,to me the kiwis looked a little flat v the pumas,think australia just might put it up to them!
            Last edited by amberleaf; 12-10-11, 10:03.
            Mattie McGrath wanna-be

            Comment


              Originally posted by amberleaf View Post
              see what your saying abot the fra/nzd match,but then the match v tonga leaves a few question marks,but when you look at the attitude of the welsh team all the way from the start,couldnt see them takeing the foot off the gas if they were in that same situation.i just think what we have seen from wales is what we are going to get next saturday,and thats a high bar for any team to get to,france are good nuff to get there,but can you trust them to come out and not fuck it up for themselfs some where along the line!
              Yep the France vs Tonga game just proved France are capable of just about anything on any given day

              Yep Welsh attitude is always good and know they wont take the foot of the gas.

              Too be honest i think Wales have some very exciting young players who should have probably beat South Africa (One trick pony team in my opinion all be it very good at it) and came up against an Ireland team who mite aswell have sent the blueprint on how they were going to play.

              I not obviously going to be bring up a debate on Ireland game as it over now but it was clear to anyone who watched any Rugby that Wales were always going to target O Gara when he was attacking as he no speed and was always going to get slow ball from Murray so simple game plan to attack that area when defending.Obviously they knew we would try simple passes to Ferris/O Brien/Healy so they just stopped them.Attacking my god everyman and his dog knew they would just try run at O Gara and just as much Earls(I know Darcy missed tackles too but as a general rule he is half decent at defending).A bloody blindman would have known that Earls cant defend to save himself and that Trimble who was bigger and stronger would have been more suited to that game.

              Are Wales going too have a masterplan for the France game im sure they will have something planned but we can be sure France wont play the easy to read rugby(will play the opposite most likely) and also have more physical backs who should be more than able for Roberts and Co.

              Sad thing is i would like Wales to win but when your gambling you cant gamble with the heart.

              High scoring entertaining game i hope.

              Comment


                wales v france,priestland is out with hook in,(jones on the bench)according to met service nzl,forecast is fairly good for the game,(12 c,few showers,westerly winds)
                total match points on 365 u/o 36.5 @ 5/6
                best hcp wales -1 @ evens (vc bet),france + 2 @ evens(pp)

                my first thoughts on this is that wales -1 with vc looks good to me at this point,they are in my view,the most consistent team in the tourny,full of confidence and very disiplined.reckon what we have seen is what we will get on sat.france on their day could win the whole thing,but for me theres just too many ifs or buts about them

                on the total points,think the overs might be the way to go,wales will take every opportunity that comes their way,as will france but france so far anyway, have given away about a 1/3 more pens as wales in key games.(11 v england and wales had just 7 v ireland)

                in the other game,no teams named so far,but i think we have a fair idea who will be on the field on sunday,the forecast is not so good tho and the total points on 365 is u/o 42.5,tbh,i dont think this will be a high scoreing game,but will wait till i have more information on teams,wind coditions etc


                opinions on the above anyone?
                Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                Comment


                  It's not a game I'd be looking to bet on. France are capable of anything and whilst Wales have been impressive you just get the feeling that they'll get mugged somewhere along like line. Based on form Wales should cruise this but I can see France winning this, whether it's through a quality performance or a lucky, ref-aided close game - just a gut feeling.

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by NuckChorris View Post
                    It's not a game I'd be looking to bet on. France are capable of anything and whilst Wales have been impressive you just get the feeling that they'll get mugged somewhere along like line. Based on form Wales should cruise this but I can see France winning this, whether it's through a quality performance or a lucky, ref-aided close game - just a gut feeling.
                    after the slateing lawrence got after the aus/s.a. game,think the refs will pay particular attention to the breakdown,according to news reports,wales seem to be happy nuff with alan rolland,then again they would hardly complain about him before the game!
                    in the nz/aus game craig joubert is the man in charge,and apparently one of the best so far in the tourny,the boks are furious with some of the ruleings lawrence made in the 1/4 final,and are getting plenty of support from other countrys,if this turns out to be true perhaps the total points scored by peri weepu,or even the yellow card market might be of intrestedit,will there be a sin-bin,yes 11/8 (pp)
                    Last edited by amberleaf; 13-10-11, 09:56.
                    Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                    Comment


                      big bet on france to win by less than 13, and vincent clerc for the first try

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                        early days but nz - 7 in the 1/2 time hcp looks a bit of a steal.the way the kiwis came out of the traps v aus, could be well beatable when they play france on sunday.
                        Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                        Comment


                          Maybe but the French started very strong against them in the group and fell away later on in the match. But its still a reasonable line, ABs are good for sneaking in a try right before half time. I think France +16 for the match is the best value bet

                          Comment


                            I'm just going on record saying that the HT handicap of NZ -7 for the final should be hit hard IMO...Its 4/5 on PP right now. I've had my cut off it, so work away.

                            Think the All Blacks will be like men possessed for this game..24 years of hurt will drive them to blow the French away I think.

                            Edit: Blind as I am I didn't see ambers post above so obv just concurring with him on this.
                            "Ne jamais perdre sa passsionne...ou s'en, éloigner vite!!!!..EC

                            Comment


                              just two firms holding out on australia -2 points v wales for fridays game (boyles & b365)both 10/11,all others gone to - 3,with betfred gone to -4.with sam worthington out of the equation,toby faletau is moved to no 7 and might be worth a tiny motm bet in what should be workings mans odds (just in case),not the worst scenario for wales i guess,but still think pocock =

                              at this stage i'm toying with a man of the match number 7 double,POCOCK and Mc CAW,tbh richie mc should get the motm just for running on the pitch with the injury he has,he's 11/2 for the gong,no price for pocock as yet but should be some where around the 8/1 or so,reckon theres worse 60/1(ish) shots out there!
                              Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                              Comment


                                am i reading pp right is france 6/1 to win on sunday
                                jesus i know they have had some shit games and were unbelievably lucky to beat wales, but they are well capable of beating.
                                i may continue my degenerecy by placing the case loots (all 18.25 of it) on france.



                                "Remember the time he ate my goldfish? And you lied and said I never had goldfish. Then why did I have the bowl, Bart? Why did I have the bowl?"

                                Comment


                                  Originally posted by amberleaf View Post
                                  just two firms holding out on australia -2 points v wales for fridays game (boyles & b365)both 10/11,all others gone to - 3,with betfred gone to -4.with sam worthington out of the equation,toby faletau is moved to no 7 and might be worth a tiny motm bet in what should be workings mans odds (just in case),not the worst scenario for wales i guess,but still think pocock =

                                  at this stage i'm toying with a man of the match number 7 double,POCOCK and Mc CAW,tbh richie mc should get the motm just for running on the pitch with the injury he has,he's 11/2 for the gong,no price for pocock as yet but should be some where around the 8/1 or so,reckon theres worse 60/1(ish) shots out there!
                                  ive got a strong preference for wales in the 3rd/4th place play off for a number of reasons. These games are traditionally won by the team that want them more (in rugby and soccer), an example being argentina blowing france away in the 2007 playoff. while im not saying australia would show the same lack of application as the french, it will certainly mean more to wales; they are after a superb world cup with the good will of the nation behind them still particularly after such a herioc performance with 14 men so they will want to finish on a high. the fact that wales have gone almost full strength (bar aw jones) shows they are taking this one seriously. on the other hand this world cup has been a bit of a damp squid for the ozzies, they had serious designs on winning it and may just want to get home at this stage. as well as this they are on the back of two absolutely bruising encounters in the last two weeks where they were pretty well beaten up and have a days less rest to recover.

                                  Comment


                                    Originally posted by Angry-Ball View Post
                                    am i reading pp right is france 6/1 to win on sunday
                                    jesus i know they have had some shit games and were unbelievably lucky to beat wales, but they are well capable of beating.
                                    i may continue my degenerecy by placing the case loots (all 18.25 of it) on france.
                                    yep not bad in a two horse race,and i guess anything could happen,but i just cant see the all blacks letting this one go and would be surprised ifs its anywhere close by the end tbh.


                                    Originally posted by steve View Post
                                    ive got a strong preference for wales in the 3rd/4th place play off for a number of reasons. These games are traditionally won by the team that want them more (in rugby and soccer), an example being argentina blowing france away in the 2007 playoff. while im not saying australia would show the same lack of application as the french, it will certainly mean more to wales; they are after a superb world cup with the good will of the nation behind them still particularly after such a herioc performance with 14 men so they will want to finish on a high. the fact that wales have gone almost full strength (bar aw jones) shows they are taking this one seriously. on the other hand this world cup has been a bit of a damp squid for the ozzies, they had serious designs on winning it and may just want to get home at this stage. as well as this they are on the back of two absolutely bruising encounters in the last two weeks where they were pretty well beaten up and have a days less rest to recover.
                                    very valid points,i'm finding this one hard to call but if you fancy wales, might as well wait till just before kickoff as the hcp lines looks to be drifting outwards all the time,could see it go as far as -6/+6 if the money keeps falling for it.thus pushing out the scratch price i would think.
                                    Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                    Comment


                                      Originally posted by Angry-Ball View Post
                                      am i reading pp right is france 6/1 to win on sunday
                                      jesus i know they have had some shit games and were unbelievably lucky to beat wales, but they are well capable of beating.
                                      i may continue my degenerecy by placing the case loots (all 18.25 of it) on france.
                                      you're better off putting it on the HT/FT (NZ/FRA) market like me in that case as France are 22/1. If France win, they'll win in it by coming from behind in the second half. NZ will blitz them and go in ahead, that's a certainty.

                                      Comment


                                        re-australia in the 3rd place play off ,could be a high scoreing game if this turns out to be truehttp://www.rugbyworldcup.com/home/ne...er+with+bronze
                                        Last edited by amberleaf; 18-10-11, 19:48.
                                        Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                        Comment


                                          just did my few bets for the weekend in the world cup,the under/over total pts line is set at 46.5 in the aus v wal. match and looks a little high to me,with all of the last 6 matches being under.might be wrong but the unders looks to me more likely than overs and might be valu @ 5/6 with sky bet.

                                          did pocock for man of the match as well,he's in the running for the irb player of the year(with 6 on the shortlist)for a reason,the best no.7 in the world at this point imo, and a good game here could do it for him,also with faletau in,just could be the difference between the teams.got him at 8/1 with powers but had to ring for a price

                                          in the big one,did nzl - 7 pts in the 1/2 time hcp.the kiwis ,i think will burst from the traps as they did in the semis and could very well,imo,get well ahead of france by 1/2 time,got that @ 10/11,also did the nzl penalty as the first scoreing play,think with the pressure they will put on france from the start might tell,they do tend to take their points early when they're on offer and hopefully weepu can split the posts, got that @ 7/4

                                          in the man of the match,did Mccaw @ 11/2,if he plays to his best(as he always does)will be on the shortlist for this,also he hasnt got the man of the match gong yet.a little unusual i think,just hope the injury he has wont force him off
                                          did the man of the match double as well,works out @ 58/1 or there abouts,and yes i am a greedy cnt!
                                          Last edited by amberleaf; 20-10-11, 09:08.
                                          Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                          Comment


                                            10 mins to KO at RWC final PP has France +17 @ evens.... great value IMO

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