RUBGY WORLD CUP

[steve]

Gotta be some gigantic odds on that

my mistake, Georgia +23 of course

[mdoug]

aussies -68
england -11
france -28

......opinions please

backed Tonga (+25) and Russia (+68) in a double with laddies... evens each of 2...

Pretty sick decision to turn around your bets and put them in a double, wp

[westlife]

Pretty sick decision to turn around your bets and put them in a double, wp

what turn around? I lazily only put the minus team down when I was looking for opinions on the matches. Emmet was the only one who gave me an opinion on those 2 matches... and said it was a toss up! The double was grand but it did not cover my loss on England -11.

I think that you doubt me...... so just for you..

http://www.irishpokerboards.com/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=1075&stc=1&d=1317502679

I've been using this site for a while now and here is a drama queen again! It is just brilliant seeing a grown man being smart arsed... not!

Synopsis -
obviously nothing better to do then to nit pick with snide comments -
should only converse if anything constructive to say -

done -
now.

[Guest]

Dan Carter out of the tournament really throws the whole tournament open.
Shame to see the most complete player not be able to shine on the biggest stage.

[KevIRL]

what turn around? I lazily only put the minus team down when I was looking for opinions on the matches. Emmet was the only one who gave me an opinion on those 2 matches... and said it was a toss up! The double was grand but it did not cover my loss on England -11.

I think that you doubt me...... so just for you..

http://www.irishpokerboards.com/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=1075&stc=1&d=1317502679

I've been using this site for a while now and here is a drama queen again! It is just brilliant seeing a grown man being smart arsed... not!

Synopsis -
obviously nothing better to do then to nit pick with snide comments -
should only converse if anything constructive to say -

done -
now.

lol pwned. wp Phil

[steve]

Dan Carter out of the tournament really throws the whole tournament open.
Shame to see the most complete player not be able to shine on the biggest stage.

have you confirmation that he is out for the tournament?

[Guest]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/rugby-world-cup-2011/news/article.cfm?c_id=522&objectid=10755991

[steve]

have you confirmation that he is out for the tournament?

just found it. cheers.

[Emmet]

How to take advantage of this?

Ireland +12 is 11/10
Ireland 1-12 is 15/8
Ireland to win is 1/7

Splitting a bet 65/35 on first two bets gives us 1/3. Can we bet and lay for arbitrage here?

[steve]

How to take advantage of this?

Ireland +12 is 11/10
Ireland 1-12 is 15/8
Ireland to win is 1/7

Splitting a bet 65/35 on first two bets gives us 1/3. Can we bet and lay for arbitrage here?

good spot

just lay ireland at 1.18 on betfair. thats a 15% return on investment if ireland win. break even if they lose. of course u can adjust it to make a smaller guaranteed profit regardless of who wins

[cardshark202]

I'm a betting fish. Does that mean bet on ireland +12 and 1-12, then lay ireland to win at 1.18?

[Emmet]

I'm a betting fish. Does that mean bet on ireland +12 and 1-12, then lay ireland to win at 1.18?

precisely (from another betting fish trying to learn the ways)

EDIT - should be Ireland -12 in the OP and following btw

[digiman]

How to take advantage of this?

Ireland +12 is 11/10
Ireland 1-12 is 15/8
Ireland to win is 1/7

Splitting a bet 65/35 on first two bets gives us 1/3. Can we bet and lay for arbitrage here?

Are all those prices on betfair?

[steve]

How to take advantage of this?

Ireland +12 is 11/10
Ireland 1-12 is 15/8
Ireland to win is 1/7

Splitting a bet 65/35 on first two bets gives us 1/3. Can we bet and lay for arbitrage here?

just put ur figures into an odds calculator to make sure and im pretty sure u dont get 1/3 , more like the 1/7 on offer generally

this overround calculator is handy in such instances

http://www.sportsbettingindex.com/SBI-overround-calculator.html

ur prices leave an overround of 82% so ur getting 1.18 on an irish win, same price as betfair. when you add in best price on italy and the draw to cover all eventualities your figure is 98% your guaranteed profit is practically non existent

[Emmet]

What have I priced / done wrong so?

[The Situation]

Whose offering the 11/10?

Stan James only ones going 15/8 on the margin, don't have an account with them but I'd imagine the max bet would be quite low so you'd most likely be only locking up pennies here.

[Emmet]

doh, it's 10/11 not 11/10... Back to the drawing board - still gives us 1/4 though?

Stan James / Betpack are offering the 15/8. This is purely academic for me tbh, trying to wrap my head around a few things considering I start work in this stuff on Monday!

[steve]

doh, it's 10/11 not 11/10... Back to the drawing board - still gives us 1/4 though?

Stan James / Betpack are offering the 15/8. This is purely academic for me tbh, trying to wrap my head around a few things considering I start work in this stuff on Monday!

ur just making a simple but understandable error, you are forgetting that the return includes your original stake. scenario A, you have started with a notional 100euro,you now only have 94.41euro, a loss of 5.59euro. if u knew Ireland were going to win you could lock in profit by adjusting your ratios. scenario B, ur return is 125.7538454. whatever site you put that into gave you profit only, the return in scenario A gave you profit and original stake so that confused you I reckon

[Bubbleking]

Id say it would be pretty difficult to spot a sizeable gap in the market, considering the way things are now there are sizeable firms snapping up any major value - especially because the RWC would have a lot of liquidity

(just guessing btw havn't got a clue)

[Emmet]

ur just making a simple but understandable error, you are forgetting that the return includes your original stake. scenario A, you have started with a notional 100euro,you now only have 94.41euro, a loss of 5.59euro. if u knew Ireland were going to win you could lock in profit by adjusting your ratios. scenario B, ur return is 125.7538454. whatever site you put that into gave you profit only, the return in scenario A gave you profit and original stake so that confused you I reckon

nope, calculations have stakes removed from returns. Formula used is
bet ratio*bank*odds - bank*bet ratio

spotted the mistake, using wrong cell.. Simple adjustment!

Appreciate the help

[steve]

Id say it would be pretty difficult to spot a sizeable gap in the market, considering the way things are now there are sizeable firms snapping up any major value - especially because the RWC would have a lot of liquidity

(just guessing btw havn't got a clue)

it is very difficult to find generally. the only time i can remeber a huge opportunity was the Lions tour 2009. many of the firms came out with prices on players to start or not to start the 1st test. the discrepencies were ridiculous. players were 4/1 to start in some places and evens not to start in others. locked in some decent profit overall

[Flushdraw]

Whose offering the 11/10?

Stan James only ones going 15/8 on the margin, don't have an account with them but I'd imagine the max bet would be quite low so you'd most likely be only locking up pennies here.

Ladbrokes are offering 7/4 on Ireland to win by 1-12

[bustamoves]

link live stream online from Spain plz?

hi guys, any site i can watch the livestream from Spain. many thanks, rte.ie no access .
i google and get sign up and pay sites but do i really need to. nearly half time now be great if i could get to see this...tnx

[ikilldurrr1]

http://www.lshunter.tv/index.php?option=com_lsh&view=lsh&event_id=64687&tid=211130&channel=0&tmpl=component&layout=popup&Itemid=327

[Emmet]

wow thats his 2nd time i think,nice one,sean o brien might be worth a little tipple in the italy game,if they want to get down and dirty and use their forward line,he'll be there,he must be one of the best ball carryiers in the game at this stage!

apologies for dissuading this bet. SOB is getting more ridiculous by the week.

Sean O'Brien is getting too good for this game...

Stats @EspnScrum
Sean O'Brien
Kicks - 1
Pass - 1
Run - 15
Metres - 51
Defenders Beaten - 4
Offloads - 2
Turnovers - 2
Tackles Made - 8
Tackles Missed - 0
Penalties Conceded - 0

To play #7 against Italy, get MotM and not concede a single penalty while doing it? What a man!

The best part about him is he's a real Irish lad, talks about cattle and sells his Granny's bread to the rest of the team. He basically runs Tullow RFC and is always about doing coaching etc the length and breadth of Leinster.

Breath of Fresh Air.

[Pistol Peter]

The difference between 11-10 and 10-11 is huge, if u use a dutching calculator http://www.oddschecker.com/betting-t...alculator.html u wud have had ireland at 1.14 which is pretty similar to the match odds if i recall

[amberleaf]

apologies for dissuading this bet. SOB is getting more ridiculous by the week.




The best part about him is he's a real Irish lad, talks about cattle and sells his Granny's bread to the rest of the team. He basically runs Tullow RFC and is always about doing coaching etc the length and breadth of Leinster.

Breath of Fresh Air.

did a few quid on the pro 12 friday night,so kept away from it over the weekend,i had a few bets in my mind, but would have had a loss over all,so just as well.sob is the man at the moment in nz,tons of stuff in the media about him over there.might be worth another pop v wales for motm,i'm quickly comeing to the conclusion that the best way to play these games is "in game or betting in running"theres just so much more information to try and make the right choice,and at the same odds of a hcp bet,ie 10/11,or evens!must have a closer look at this,how did that scrum bet work out?

[Emmet]

scrum bet was a winner

[amberleaf]

scrum bet was a winner

vwp sir

[amberleaf]

i see munster play ospreys in thomomd park on sat. next,in the pro 12,in a top of the table match.both teams are however are down at the bottom of the fair play table with ospreys haveing 5 yellow cards and munster with 6 yellows cards,so far.with plenty to play for here.could well be another one on the way,might be worth a look towards the end of the week!

[Dice75]

France

@Emmett or some of the more knowledgeable rugby people can you give me the counter argument against this please..........


France are currently available at 16/1 (1/3 ew).

Havent really watched them yet & obviously their last match was a terrible result.

Havent they been building for this WC & what are the chances of them finally slipping into gear.

Is Lievremont that bad a coach & man manager?


Anyway, if they dispose of England (especially if they do it well) surely sitting with a 16/1 e/w ticket on a French team hitting form at the right time wouldnt be the worst thing in the world???

[premierstone]

France

@Emmett or some of the more knowledgeable rugby people can you give me the counter argument against this please..........


France are currently available at 16/1 (1/3 ew).

Havent really watched them yet & obviously their last match was a terrible result.

Havent they been building for this WC & what are the chances of them finally slipping into gear.

Is Lievremont that bad a coach & man manager?


Anyway, if they dispose of England (especially if they do it well) surely sitting with a 16/1 e/w ticket on a French team hitting form at the right time wouldnt be the worst thing in the world???

France really are an enigma and are capable of anything, but personally what has gone on so far and from what has been coming out of the camp, I think this time its alot more than Gallic temperment and possible mind games, I would compare what has been happening to what actually happened their football team at the last WC.

Right now they are a shambles and dont look capable of beating anyone, I actually think our QF is far stronger than the ENG/FRA one, who would have thought that 6 weeks ago??

[Keane]

They lost to Tonga.

[amberleaf]

france look a poorish outfit right now,as bad as ireland looked untill the aus match,and all of sudden we have a great chance of making the final.think its very possible that they can turn over the english,still think englands,ill-discipline could cost them along the way,maybe next weekend!you can get 7/2 on france to reach the final,but might be better off just backing them each match,france are 7/4 v england with most of the h.s. firms,and more than likely about evenish in the s/f,giveing you the bones of 5/1 to reach the final,and would be at least 2/1 to win v nz,aus,s.a. in the final,so perhaps could get more than the 16/1 thats out there at the mo!

[Downtown]

France

@Emmett or some of the more knowledgeable rugby people can you give me the counter argument against this please..........


France are currently available at 16/1 (1/3 ew).

Havent really watched them yet & obviously their last match was a terrible result.

Havent they been building for this WC & what are the chances of them finally slipping into gear.

Is Lievremont that bad a coach & man manager?


Anyway, if they dispose of England (especially if they do it well) surely sitting with a 16/1 e/w ticket on a French team hitting form at the right time wouldnt be the worst thing in the world???

1. They dont play their best players
2. They dont play players in their best positions.
3. They hate their coach.
4. They have no confidence.
5. They lost to Tonga.

Obviously a talented group and if they take control of the team(much like England did in 07) then they might have a big game. History suggests that France have 1 big game at a RWC but I cant see it myself.

[Guest]

France

@Emmett or some of the more knowledgeable rugby people can you give me the counter argument against this please..........


France are currently available at 16/1 (1/3 ew).

Havent really watched them yet & obviously their last match was a terrible result.

Havent they been building for this WC & what are the chances of them finally slipping into gear.

Is Lievremont that bad a coach & man manager?


Anyway, if they dispose of England (especially if they do it well) surely sitting with a 16/1 e/w ticket on a French team hitting form at the right time wouldnt be the worst thing in the world???

Lievermont was an excellent player from.
In his time as manager he gave many players caps from small clubs who were nowhere good enough for international rugby usually from small clubs.
He has made some bewildering decisions and been wholly inconsistent in some of his choices for the French.
He left behind Jauzion who on one leg is better than any other 12 in France
he has completely lost the dressing room openly critisisng great players like yachvilli
just this morning Harinordoquay said that critisism rightly should be held in dressing room not the media.

Moral is low and England are fairly poor i hope the french smash them have always loved watching France play good running rugby and they really hate the english
Lievermont is a loon and has lost teh faith of his players and the public in France

[premierstone]

i hope the french smash them have always loved watching France play good running rugby and they really hate the english
Lievermont is a loon and has lost teh faith of his players and the public in France

Surely that would be -EV for Ireland, I would much rather be playing a limited England team over who we have a very good record than a rampant France team who have crushed England and are playing to spite their loony coach.*

* This is all a moot point if we dont beat the Welsh which of course is a strong possibility.

[Strewelpeter]

Surely that would be -EV for Ireland, I would much rather be playing a limited England team over who we have a very good record than a rampant France team who have crushed England and are playing to spite their loony coach.

This.
France have the best squad at the tournament and at some stage the selections will gel and the team will take a bit of pride and man up, they aren't lilly livered overpaid Prima Donnas like their soccer team.

On the other hand if we get unlucky and trip up over Wales I'll be hoping they find their groove against England because next to us they are the best hope of a NH tournament winner.

[Emmet]

If France had anyone but Lievremont in charge, I'd be smashing 16/1.

He really is the nut baffoon though. Has no idea how to
A - Pick a team
B - get on with people
C - Not alienate his entire squad.

But i fully agree, the 16/1 is too generous considering a result against England would make them favourites to reach the final, as neither ourselves or Wales beat them often enough.

The 16/1 is mispriced based on the match price of the France v England game imo. (But....)

Also - winning hemisphere North@7/2 on PP seems very long considering that we'll certainly have a NH team in the final...

[The Situation]

The French knew that a loss without conceeding a bonus point would have been enough against Tonga to qualify. It's understandable that they could get into a lax mind frame in this situation. Personally wouldn't read that much into that performance or lack there of in their case. Very easy to see people/markets over reacting to that result so hard to believe that it would be -ev backing them outright due to this.

[Semibluff]

Also - winning hemisphere North@7/2 on PP seems very long considering that we'll certainly have a NH team in the final...

Well . . .

who are the best team from the northern hemisphere? and how would they price up against New zealand. Same Q for Austrailia.
Unless this is 5/2 (or closer to 2/1) then it cant be much value.

Then how much would this price differ depending on which european team is there

[Guest]

Well . . .

who are the best team from the northern hemisphere? and how would they price up against New zealand. Same Q for Austrailia.
Unless this is 5/2 (or closer to 2/1) then it cant be much value.

Then how much would this price differ depending on which european team is there

No way would any northern hemisphere team be value at 5/2 againest the all blacks even minus Dan carter

[Guest]

Going to have a small bet on new zealand -26 at evens v argentina.
Argentina are very limited with an ageing squad and losing Lobbe is a crushing blow
hard too see where they are going to score points from?
with a rampant nz backline and an excellent bench long day at the office for argentina.

[ciarraithuaidh]

Its a bit of a punt, but for potential valuetown I'm doing an accum with all 4 quarters:

NZ (-26),Eng (-4), Ireland, Australia - Its over 10/1 on every site.

NZ have the backs to run riot against the Argies who are missing their talisman Lobbe and have little to nothing creatively.
French are in the abyss and don't look like climbing out of it..Parra, an 11 stone scrum half, at out-half again. Bonnaire starting despite a horrific effort at a tackle for Tonga's 1st try the last day. England are no great shakes, but they have the edge on France in the RWC and I think the French could just implode if England get ahead..they look and sound like a team on the plane home already...of course they could also win by 20 points running in 3 tries from their own half..this is the French!
Ireland will boss the game up front I think...Halfpenny has been picked at 15 for Wales..he is smallish, so I expect aerial bombardment to pay at least some dividends. Meant to get wet Saturday in Wellyboot which will suit us I think.
Australia - have Pocock back which is huge. Boks have yet again picked Smit at hooker depite B Du P being a far better player. The Beast is dropped, Frans Steyn out (no long-range kicking option), Habana doubtful and they were well and truly demolished everywhere but the scoreboard by Samoa. Aus have won 5/6 recent games between the sides also.

Worth a shot overall.

[applehunter]

Why would it matter that the out-half is 11 stone or not?

[ciarraithuaidh]

Why would it matter that the out-half is 11 stone or not?

Really? Ok..well imagine say, Manu Tuilagi (English centre) or Nick Easter (England number 8) running at whats called the "10 channel" where the outhalf is positioned....This scenario is guaranteed to happen multiple times in this game. Lets examine the physics....

Manu Tuilagi, 105 kg v Morgan Parra 72kg (before we even take momentum etc.into account)
Nick Easter, 117kg v Parra,72kg...same scenario.

How do you think that will go?

Put it this way..even a guy regarded as defensively suspect at 10, ROG is 84kg. Trinh-Duc, who Parra replaced, is 93kg.

Size isn't everything, but Parra simply isn't physically capable of standing up to guys crashing through him in a backline.

I feel dumb somehow after typing all that...

[Micknail]

Really? Ok..well imagine say, Manu Tuilagi (English centre) or Nick Easter (England number 8) running at whats called the "10 channel" where the outhalf is positioned....This scenario is guaranteed to happen multiple times in this game. Lets examine the physics....

Manu Tuilagi, 105 kg v Morgan Parra 72kg (before we even take momentum etc.into account)
Nick Easter, 117kg v Parra,72kg...same scenario.

How do you think that will go?

Put it this way..even a guy regarded as defensively suspect at 10, ROG is 84kg. Trinh-Duc, who Parra replaced, is 93kg.

Size isn't everything, but Parra simply isn't physically capable of standing up to guys crashing through him in a backline.

I feel dumb somehow after typing all that...

Also add in your rating of his kicking if he's going to be OH.

[ciarraithuaidh]

Also add in your rating of his kicking if he's going to be OH.

His kicking from the hand is ok, but not great. He won't be taking the place kicks Yachvilli will.
Overall, he'd be ok if he wasn't a similar size to yourself!

[Micknail]

IM ON A DIET OK!

Jesus people really must start introducing themselves to me.

I wish i was 72kg lol.

[amberleaf]

is a any time manky drop goal @ 11/8(laddies) wales v ireland,worth a shot?with the history between these two and all.

[shrapnel]

i'm on france to win by more than 12 at 10/1
and a straight france win at 2/1

[steve]

the england france game really is going to be so fascinating. i cant believe france wont put in a performance tomorrow. 2/1 is just huge. think im gonna take it and lay it off in play on the basis that they will surely be lower priced than that at some stage during the game tomorrow

[Emmet]

In play is going to be chaos. I wouldn't want to be trading it from the bookies side tomorrow.

First ten minutes will tell a lot. Both games tomorrow are going to be intriguing.

[steve]

i like over 37.5 points in the ireland wales game. just over evens on betfair. i dont expect this to be a bore fest. wales have a tendency to give away a lot of penalties particularly at breakdown time so Rog should be able to keep the score board ticking over on our side and we are capable of getting over, and wales have shown there capabalities in an attacking sense too. im predicting a score of 25-19, just dont know to which team!!

[steve]

i like over 37.5 points in the ireland wales game. just over evens on betfair. i dont expect this to be a bore fest. wales have a tendency to give away a lot of penalties particularly at breakdown time so Rog should be able to keep the score board ticking over on our side and we are capable of getting over, and wales have shown there capabalities in an attacking sense too. im predicting a score of 25-19, just dont know to which team!!

Scrap thats. its wild over there. should lay it off now before the game and take my loss but im too stubborn!

[Jibzzzz]

Im on Ireland-2 and france+4 double.
Then ireland vs wales draw halftime
Then bod for first try

[Micknail]

He won't be taking the place kicks Yachvilli will.

He's fucking scary good at them too.
such a nonchalant swagger post kick.
England could be embarrassed here.

Yep i'll just go jinx him so.

[Emmet]

Did anyone chose to blindly follow Yardie's tips in the other thread on boards.ie? His reasoning behind most has been rock solid, even if they haven't come in.

This morning though. beautiful

Some bets I fancy over the weekend.

Ireland/Wales- Another very tight game and fancy Ireland to win it. Weather is likely to be poor so under 36 points at evens looks best bet here. Ferris man of match @ 12/1 and Warburton m-o-m @9/1 worth small punts too.

South Africa/Australia- Hard to pick winner here. Weather are gonna be atrocious so would side with Sth Africa, however best bet seems to be under 37 points @ evens

England/France- hard to know which French tema will turn up but even if poor French side turn up I can't see England beating anyone well so will likely be another low scoring game. France +5 @ evens looks value but I prefer under 38 points @ evens again in this one. Also two sides with poor discipline. Yellow card @ 5/4 on paddypower is very attractive.

New Zealand/Argentina- New Zealand will win this handily enough but Arg may put in respectable performance and keep score down. Arg +27 is worth a look but I can't see Arg scoring many points so under 47 points is prob best bet @evens- 6/4 on sporting bet here with NZ winning 36-6 or something like that. Muliana makes 100th appearance for ABs for man of match and tryscorer worth backing for him.

A 4 fold of unders in all 4 games is 14/1 on bet 365 so gonna have €10 on this too. Good luck lads, take er handy on the booze tonight so ye's don't miss the game at 6!

Edit the same acca for unders with 2/3 pts less per game is 48/1 on sportingbet.def worth a 5er.

Get in you beauty!!! Hope some of ye took the 48/1!!

[amberleaf]

one of the best is that yardie,and so consistent as well.missed out on pocock in the motm,kinda looked a obvious choice before the game,always in with a chance

[amberleaf]

i see munster play ospreys in thomomd park on sat. next,in the pro 12,in a top of the table match.both teams are however are down at the bottom of the fair play table with ospreys haveing 5 yellow cards and munster with 6 yellows cards,so far.with plenty to play for here.could well be another one on the way,might be worth a look towards the end of the week!

of course there were two yellow cards,never backed it tho,just spent the last few hours looking back at the 1/4 finals of the rwc,at this point i just cant see how france are going to win v wales