IPB Hero Our Conor Memorial Thread - (Horses Betting Obv)

[whyno]

If twist magic starts off today after wha happened in punchestown 6/4 at his beloved sandown has to be stealing money. Paco Boy looks a class above in the mile to.

[whyno]

The Celebration Chase at Sandown today is intriuging. There is little doubht that Twist Magic is by far the best horse in this on his day. But he has often looked dodgy and refused to start on Tuesday in Punchestown. Because of this he is priced up at 6/4 today. This is a horse who keeps his best for Sandown, and if on form he would rout this lot. However there is quite a major doubt as to whether he will put the best foot forward or not. Originally I thought that despite the question marks over his temprement I was prepared to back him at 6/4 - If he jumps off ok and travels for the first furlong he will be nearer 1/2 in running. But then I decided to back him to win and lay to place @ 1.4. This seems to me to be a very good bet. Tbh I cannot see him finish 2nd or 3rd, if he is on form he will win, if he isn't he will either refuse or be tailed off. So I've backed him on the win market and covered my bet as a place lay.
Thought on this or am I mad?

I'll be waiting for the start of the race an if he jumps off i'll place my bet and just stay at the counter to collect. I think at sandown none of this lot will get near him.

[NewApproach]

If twist magic starts off today after wha happened in punchestown 6/4 at his beloved sandown has to be stealing money. Paco Boy looks a class above in the mile to.

He is the best horse yes, but he tends to improve for his seasonal debut and his best form is at 7f. Tbh despite the Ascot win last year I'm not 100% sure he stays, though I could be very wrong. Beaver Patrol looks a savage ew bet in the race.

[NewApproach]

I'll be waiting for the start of the race an if he jumps off i'll place my bet and just stay at the counter to collect. I think at sandown none of this lot will get near him.

Dunno I'd say the bookies will be on the ball and wont take anything after the off time. They can void it and you wouldn't find out until you go to collect your winnings.

[whyno]

Dunno I'd say the bookies will be on the ball and wont take anything after the off time. They can void it and you wouldn't find out until you go to collect your winnings.

pp do betting in running man....easy i hope

[NewApproach]

pp do betting in running man....easy i hope

Not for this they won't. Considering a significant percentage of his odds is down to the chances of him jumping off or not.

Also on betfair everone will be doing the same thing, backing in running after a furlong than he will be artifically short IR.

[NewApproach]

Really fancy Dunn'o in the last at Sandown. He won this race last year, and also won another race last year over C&D (unbeaten in 3 round Sandown). He ran well last time out in Kempton (eyecatching, should improve from it) and obviously has a very good chance. Only best price 9/4 now though, was generally 5/2 this morning.

[NewApproach]

Woops

[The Situation]

Think Prince of dance is worth a punt EW at 12/1 in the 365 mile. Unbeaten in 3 races including two wins over a mile, and the ground conditions will suit. Paco will obv take all the beating but he's a little short for my liking but yet can't hit the lay button!

[rounders123]

Just caught the tail end of a Mc Crirrick interview on tv yesterday with Aussie commentator Jim Mc Grath. Seems like Jim McGrath is being jocked off commentary on the Guinneas meeting by the BBC head shed?.
Anyone got more info on why and who is replacing him?. Jim Seemed like he was holding in his dissapointment and being professional about it.

[NewApproach]

Just caught the tail end of a Mc Crirrick interview on tv yesterday with Aussie commentator Jim Mc Grath. Seems like Jim McGrath is being jocked off commentary on the Guinneas meeting by the BBC head shed?.
Anyone got more info on why and who is replacing him?. Jim Seemed like he was holding in his dissapointment and being professional about it.

About time if true, but considering the BBC don't cover the guineas I wouldn't be so sure. To be honest he was appalling at Aintree.

[careca]

Just caught the tail end of a Mc Crirrick interview on tv yesterday with Aussie commentator Jim Mc Grath. Seems like Jim McGrath is being jocked off commentary on the Guinneas meeting by the BBC head shed?.
Anyone got more info on why and who is replacing him?. Jim Seemed like he was holding in his dissapointment and being professional about it.

Could not hear this as the pub was crowded but I think there is a bit more to it.

McGrath is BBC, Channel 4 have the Guineas, but Newmarket insisted that McGrath does it. Rumours are around that Newmarket want the Beeb to do the Guineas next year, so this is to aid that.

I did hear McGrath saying he was dissapointed though, so not sure what all that is about.

[rounders123]

Yeah i was wondering what me crirrick was on about the guinneas meeting with bbc not covering it but he did say that unless i misheard. But the word is that Mc Grath is out and and its come as a general surprise to everyone by the sounds.
If thats true about Ch4 wanting to hand off the guinneas meeting to the bbc then surely this signals the end for their live racing coverage and the rumours have been going around for a couple of years now.

[The C Kid]

Death wouldn't be too harsh a punishment for McGrath's crimes against commentaries.

[applehunter]

Jim McGrath has been past his sell by date for a few years now.

His commentaries at Aintree a few weeks ago were embarrassing. Dessic Scahill is going that way too.

[Wesley Harms]

Simon Holt should just commentate on everything

[rounders123]

Jim McGrath has been past his sell by date for a few years now.

His commentaries at Aintree a few weeks ago were embarrassing. Dessic Scahill is going that way too.

Yeah old boy Dessie doesnt see the shot and doesnt give fav's due attention.

I wouldnt hear too much of mc grath these days due to watching most racing on RUK & ATR or watching the pp live text commentary which is a good funking tool!.

[Strewelpeter]

I don't get all the Dessie haters. He can sound a bit drab on a wet Wednesday in Roscommon but who wouldn't, on the big days he still really brings it alive.

How RTE still employ that eejit who does their radio commentaries I don't know. I reckon he just opens the paper calls out random names until the business end and then hopes there is something gone clear. I heard one recently where he had called the same half dozen names over and over from the start, was talking up a finish as they jumped the last ... long pause and he calls out the first past the post not one of which he had mentioned at anytime during the race.

[rounders123]

I don't get all the Dessie haters. He can sound a bit drab on a wet Wednesday in Roscommon but who wouldn't, on the big days he still really brings it alive.

How RTE still employ that eejit who does their radio commentaries I don't know. I reckon he just opens the paper calls out random names until the business end and then hopes there is something gone clear. I heard one recently where he had called the same half dozen names over and over from the start, was talking up a finish as they jumped the last ... long pause and he calls out the first past the post not one of which he had mentioned at anytime during the race.

He has a good voice but i remember a race at Dundalk recently where he didnt mention the odds on fav once during the race even though the fav finished 2nd!, not once and i was onto Chapman to let him know about it and they verified it!. Also when a fav comes under pressure he doesnt always make note of it until hes already back peddling or when a danger is improving doesnt mention it until it bites him on the ass at times. And usually just calls the first 4 home which is a nightmare for match bet backers listening and watching out for tail enders. I dont hate him though i just think he misses a lot and things seem to happen to quick for him especially in a group finish.

[NewApproach]

I don't get all the Dessie haters. He can sound a bit drab on a wet Wednesday in Roscommon but who wouldn't, on the big days he still really brings it alive.

How RTE still employ that eejit who does their radio commentaries I don't know. I reckon he just opens the paper calls out random names until the business end and then hopes there is something gone clear. I heard one recently where he had called the same half dozen names over and over from the start, was talking up a finish as they jumped the last ... long pause and he calls out the first past the post not one of which he had mentioned at anytime during the race.

Scahill is almost as bad as aussie Jim. The amount of horses he mispronounces in ridiculous, and he misses so many obvious things too during the race.

Simon Holt and Richard Hoiles are both top class, and Terry Spargo who commentates on the racing from Dubai is one of my favourites too.

[AndyFatBastard]

Scahill is awful. He was great in his hayday but he's just going through the motions these days. Time for some new blood.

[Strewelpeter]

Scahill ... The amount of horses he mispronounces in ridiculous.

I was looking forward to hearing what he was going to call Quantitative Easing at Punchestown last week but he's nailed it, at last

[Mellor]

It tilts the shit outta me that I have basically my whole roll tied up in schumacher for the season. Had two tips this weekend that came in that I had to pass.

[npr]

Great performance from Hurricane/Mullins/Townend. Serious horse for next year if he stays fit.

Slighly off thread but I'm rolling half my returns over on to Glass Harmonium, 4.15 at Sandown today. G1 10f horse this year.

I actually just found this. I wrote it on my phone and I thought I posted it on the Punchestown fred where I had said I was backing hurricane fly. When I checked that evening I thought it hadn't posted properly.

Anyway hope some of you backed him. Serious horse to follow this season. Bankroll's looking healthy

[eagle eye]

small price (5/6) but Lion Mountain in the 2nd race at Ponterfact today is 'come home on his own material'.

also - Jimbo is lol bad, Dessie is marginally better but both are definitely gone at the game.

Theres a US bred Oaks entry that cost $300k as a yearling, Stoute, Johnson and Cecil yards all represented. All having their first runs as 3 year olds. I don't like it at all.

[eagle eye]

small price (5/6) but Lion Mountain in the 2nd race at Ponterfact today is 'come home on his own material'.

also - Jimbo is lol bad, Dessie is marginally better but both are definitely gone at the game.

Easy winner, well done.

[Raoul Duke III]

Elvis brother was a crap singer and none of them knew how much they cost. When you had the word I had then you are not worrying about the opposition.

sterling work Mr Hayes (the nag is by no means a world beater but who cares?)

next bottle is on me

[Raoul Duke III]

nice performance all the same, didnt look entirely straight forward and looks plenty green. I expect he will improve lots and will appreciate even further in time.

I wouldnt be following him blindly the next time though - get in and get out when everything is stacked in your favor

I was thinking of the next bottle already - fortnights time when i get home from prague.

wouldn't be mad about his style of running, didn't look to be letting himself down great on the firm ground

yes, we'll find a suitable occasion to down the vino - maybe the usual SE100 game. No last longest this time though

[Raoul Duke III]

fancy Averroes for the 4.00 at Chester - except stoopid trainer has gone ahead and pulled out the no-hoper to make it a 7-runner H\C

may still have a cut @ 9/2

[Raoul Duke III]

fancy Averroes for the 4.00 at Chester - except stoopid trainer has gone ahead and pulled out the no-hoper to make it a 7-runner H\C

may still have a cut @ 9/2

apprentice jocks ftl

[npr]

apprentice jocks ftl

If he'd watched any of the previous races he'd have seen that they're all winning from the front. Not a good ride but winner may have had a bit more.

I fancy Longliner in the next.

[Raoul Duke III]

If he'd watched any of the previous races he'd have seen that they're all winning from the front. Not a good ride but winner may have had a bit more.

meh, I throttled right back on what I was originally intending to have on so not too annoyed. Still not a great effort.

Longliner doesn't inspire me with confidence. Fallon's conveyance was backed off the boards this morning.

[npr]

I know they think a lot of Longliner and were disappointed with his first run. Stoute's usually come on for a run. Getting a bit skinny now but worth a punt at 7/2 I thought.

[npr]

Doh, never looked like getting there. First horse to come from behind to win. Nice turn of foot, one to keep an eye on.

[Raoul Duke III]

Doh, never looked like getting there. First horse to come from behind to win. Nice turn of foot, one to keep an eye on.

Jarvis in flying form over the last few weeks, even R Hills is able to win on his

[npr]

Jarvis in flying form over the last few weeks, even R Hills is able to win on his

I am always delighted to see him do well. He has to try so hard to keep any decent horses under the radar so that they don't get taken off him and end up in the blue bin.

Can't believe you are slagging R Hills, I would rate him in at least the top 100 jockeys riding in England today.

On a side note, what has happened to B Hills this year. Terrible start to the season.

[Raoul Duke III]

On a side note, what has happened to B Hills this year. Terrible start to the season.

eh, he has cancer (seriously)

[npr]

eh, he has cancer (seriously)

Obviously I mean the stable . His son Charlie has been running it for the last few years.

[The Situation]

Like the look of O'Briens colt Cape Blanco in the big one at York today. Competitive little field but I reckon 4/1 is a bit on the large side.

[Raoul Duke III]

Like the look of O'Briens colt Cape Blanco in the big one at York today. Competitive little field but I reckon 4/1 is a bit on the large side.

every animal he's sent to the UK this season has run like a dog

I wouldn't back it with your money

[NewApproach]

Like the look of O'Briens colt Cape Blanco in the big one at York today. Competitive little field but I reckon 4/1 is a bit on the large side.

All the vibes are that he will need the race, badly.

[NewApproach]

I see Pipedreamer is finally running at a mile in the Lockinge on Saturday. Will be interesting to see how he gets on, I don't think I was the only one to think he didn't stay 10f in a horse box. 14/1 is a very fair ew price against the favourite I think.

[Raoul Duke III]

As I said, Cape Blanco will romp home and you should get all the loots on

wd

[The Situation]

As I said, Cape Blanco will romp home and you should get all the loots on

wd

LOL, only had 50 on him but he was very impressive.

O'Brien is far too good a trainer for that bad run to go have gone on much longer, form is temporary and class is permanent. He did say last year that Cape Blanco would love good- firm ground after he struggled to a win on softish ground in fairyhouse.

[whyno]

wins going away. decent performance. horse has a future i reckon.

Never touched a twig and lynch never panicked at all. Same novice chase Sizing europe won on his way to the top of the novice ranks.

[Raoul Duke III]

3.00 Lingfield. the 13/8 on Galioto wont be there at the off and is worth taking

barf, you got half your prediction right anyway

someone should inform Mr Baker it's OK to make your own pace if no-one else wants to

[Raoul Duke III]

didnt see the race but heard it was a bit of a farce. despite finishing 2nd he never looked like winning.

they crawled which didn't suit the nag at all plus he got unbalanced coming down the hill, took ages to pick up then and was never near

win some, lose some

[npr]

Sandown 8.35 - Marie de Guise. 7/4 at the moment.

[Raoul Duke III]

I am swearing off short priced favourites in bad handicaps, even if they come with the BCB imprimatur

I like opr's choice better fwiw

[The Situation]

Like the EW credentials of Cloone Rocket in the 19.50 at Tipp tonight in the 8 runner race at 13/2 on pp. His lenghty break off the track is an obvious worry but I think the price slightly over compensating for this IMO!

[npr]

No good today. Alarming drift before the off. Keep an eye on her the next time. Better over further.

Sandown 8.35 - Marie de Guise. 7/4 at the moment.

[The Situation]

Like the EW credentials of Cloone Rocket in the 19.50 at Tipp tonight in the 8 runner race at 13/2 on pp. His lenghty break off the track is an obvious worry but I think the price slightly over compensating for this IMO!

Meh 3rd, should come on from this run, probably more suited back over hurdles! Still profit though

[Wesley Harms]

Got some good word for cheddar George in the 7.30 at Lingfield. Free each way bet at 9/2

[Esprit]

Two bets for me tomorrow.

NAP - 4:45 Bath - Brave Bugsy - 3pts

NB - 2:05 Bath - Bajan Bullet - 2pts

Didn't intentionally pick two horses with the initials "BB" intentionally btw.

[Esprit]

Two bets for me tomorrow.

NAP - 4:45 Bath - Brave Bugsy - 3pts

NB - 2:05 Bath - Bajan Bullet - 2pts

Didn't intentionally pick two horses with the initials "BB" intentionally btw.

Brave Bugsy won easily @ 9/4.

Bajan was only 5th but not far away.

Decent profit for me.

Edit :

Only bet for tomorrow.

NAP - 3:45 Carlisle - Refuse To Wait - 4.75pts @ 4/1

[npr]

Stoute/Moore double @ Sandown

7.10 Saptapadi
7.45 Glass Harmonium

On at 13/8 & 4 roughly 13/1. E/w will cover your stake.

[The Situation]

Stoute/Moore double @ Sandown

7.10 Saptapadi
7.45 Glass Harmonium

On at 13/8 & 4 roughly 13/1. E/w will cover your stake.

I'm really like Sri Putra in the 7.45. Got on him at 5.5 this morning. Jarvis' stable is in pretty sick form at the moment. He said this was his best prospect on ATR today which bodes very well because his filly Naddwah won the first at Wolverhampton very handy. Course and distance winner here at Sandown and won a group 3 on his first outing this season.

[RBBlogger]

wow, the 7.10 is one of the toughest races today to pick a winner. there are 6 horses in this race with a realistic chance of winning, takes too long to name them but here are the numbers 2, 4, 6, 8, 9, 10

and if Akmal is a non runner then anyone of the horses left in the race could win as he's the only horse that might go a good gallop from the start.

The 7.45 is a lot better race to concentrate on and the winner will come from either 1,2,8 . I think I will dutch the three myself.

[npr]

I'm really like Sri Putra in the 7.45. Got on him at 5.5 this morning. Jarvis' stable is in pretty sick form at the moment. He said this was his best prospect on ATR today which bodes very well because his filly Najaam won the first at Wolverhampton very handy. Course and distance winner here at Sandown and won a group 3 on his first outing this season.

I agree that Jarvis is in cracking form but as I said before on this thread I think Glass Harmonium is a Gr 1 10f. He was due to run in the Tatts Gold Cup on Sunday but the ground came up too firm over here. I just don't think Sri Putra is quite up to his standard.

[The Situation]

I'm on Special Duty pretty big in the next at Newmarket. Huge price IMO!