I've been trying to develop a spreadsheet for the Premier League which is based on FIFA's international rankings system. I have spent the past couple of days developing this and I am now attempting to find the correct conversion from the points into odds. I have only 6months of games inputted at this stage but over the next week or so will be hoping to increase this to at least 12 months.
So far most of games have been close enough to the bookies.Those that haven't so far I have below to start with. I am starting with a €500 bank roll. Bets will be made between 2% and 10% based on my rank of the bet being a 1 point or 5 point bet.
Bets are high for bankroll size but I am willing to take the risk to start out to try and build. If I go lower I am afraid I might loose interest.
The rankings are based on home and away performances. Based on the size of the difference between the home ranking and the away ranking I am predicting a W/D/L. e.g. >5pts Home, <5points >-8points Draw, <8points away win.
These points have been estimated by inputting results from the past 5 weeks to try and gauge the correct level. They will probably be tweeked to find the optimum levels.
Finally odds are calculated by where they fall within these parameters.
Once points are calculated then the individual games will be looked at for team news etc. I'm not 100% sure on how to weight these but should be a matter of trial and error.
Hopefully I will have 3 months of it to tweek and finalize it and if successful develop it for other divisions.
Success is going to be based on Profit. I am aiming to have 5% profit on bets made by end of Feb.
The reason to put it up is to try and get advise on any glaring errors, I know bankroll management is very aggressive ATM but that is all I have at present and will reload with another €500 if I feel I am running bad but the system seems to be sound.
So week one here are my bets.
Stoke win 5/6 Bet365 1pt €10
Newcastle -2 5/6 Stan James 2 pt €20
QPR draw no bet 6/4 Sky Bet 1pt €10
Spurs win 20/21 Boyles 1 pt €10
Swansea win 13/10 Boyles 4pt €40
Man City win13/8 Bet Fred 3pt €30
Risk €120
Balance €380
So far most of games have been close enough to the bookies.Those that haven't so far I have below to start with. I am starting with a €500 bank roll. Bets will be made between 2% and 10% based on my rank of the bet being a 1 point or 5 point bet.
Bets are high for bankroll size but I am willing to take the risk to start out to try and build. If I go lower I am afraid I might loose interest.
The rankings are based on home and away performances. Based on the size of the difference between the home ranking and the away ranking I am predicting a W/D/L. e.g. >5pts Home, <5points >-8points Draw, <8points away win.
These points have been estimated by inputting results from the past 5 weeks to try and gauge the correct level. They will probably be tweeked to find the optimum levels.
Finally odds are calculated by where they fall within these parameters.
Once points are calculated then the individual games will be looked at for team news etc. I'm not 100% sure on how to weight these but should be a matter of trial and error.
Hopefully I will have 3 months of it to tweek and finalize it and if successful develop it for other divisions.
Success is going to be based on Profit. I am aiming to have 5% profit on bets made by end of Feb.
The reason to put it up is to try and get advise on any glaring errors, I know bankroll management is very aggressive ATM but that is all I have at present and will reload with another €500 if I feel I am running bad but the system seems to be sound.
So week one here are my bets.
Stoke win 5/6 Bet365 1pt €10
Newcastle -2 5/6 Stan James 2 pt €20
QPR draw no bet 6/4 Sky Bet 1pt €10
Spurs win 20/21 Boyles 1 pt €10
Swansea win 13/10 Boyles 4pt €40
Man City win13/8 Bet Fred 3pt €30
Risk €120
Balance €380
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