Deal making

[8611]

I meant to post previously asking for links to good deal making articles / discussions, a google search just brings up pretty crappy ones. Generally your brain is pretty frazzled when people are talking chops and I never really know what to do.

3 handed -

Player 1 - 640k
Player 2 - 865k
Me - 466k

Blinds 6k 12k 1k ante

Current prizepool
1st 4600
2nd 2900
3rd 1900

Proposed deal, on the basis of equity of remaining prizepool

Chip leader (865k) - 3500
Player 2 - (640k) - 3150
Me (460k) - 2700

What are the factors to take into account in considering this deal?

[Flushdraw]

Average is still 55 bigs so if i feel i have an edge, i wouldn't be doing a deal yet while i'm shortest stack. There's still a lot of play left and i'd like to get myself into a position where the deal offers me more than 2nd place. Your ICM at the moment is worth about €2820

I've not really been in too many tournaments that have been this deep at the end with a healthy little payday so not sure what the best line is!

[Hectorjelly]

With stacks this deep I would basically rule out a deal unless there was an overwhelmingly good reason to make one, like a) I'm too exhausted to play properly or b) The other players are as good as me shorthanded (or close enough as to make very little difference) or c) the deal was really in my favour

[doke]

Main factors are how big you perceive your edge to be shorthanded, and how important the money is to you.

As far as the first goes, most of us probably overestimate ourselves, so try to be honest. Even if you have an edge, it might not translate into that much if the structure is fast or shallow (which it isn't here). The first deal I ever agreed, we were 5 handed, I was chipleader, but I had very little experience of playing shorthanded at that point, so I was eager to lock up as much of my equity as I could at that point (and therefore agreed to a deal that gave me less than my ICM). Opponent style is important too. Headsup your opponent might be bad, but if he is aggro, that diminishes your edge. For example, if stacks are level and he is bloating pots and going all in pre a lot, your chances may come down to getting in on the right side of a 60/40. On the other hand, if he's weak passive you might be able to win in 90% of universes just by chipping him down without any big confrontations til he is short.

On the question of how important the money is to you, say you are offered 2820. The question you should ask yourself is would you pay 920 (2820-1900 which you are guaranteed) to buy in right now against these players and stacks where the prize pool is nothing for third, 1000 for second, and 2700 for first. If the answer is no, then you should deal. If someone offered me 5/4 on a coinflip, I would accept up to an amount I would be uncomfortable losing. I'd snap their offer for a tenner, but decline it for 500k. My edge is the same in both cases, and the 500k flip is actually worth way more in Ev terms, but I would still decline.

I recently agreed a deal 3 handed in an online tourney. 5 handed there were two large losing players left (both were primarily high stakes PLO cash players, also losing players at that) who were playing very erratically. As long as they were still in there was never going to be a deal. Almost the instant they busted in 4th and 5th deal talks started. At that stage the other two guys in had similar lifetime records to mine (and were playing very well) so I felt had very little edge if any and it didn't make sense to play on and basically have the deck (or the Stars random number generator) decide who got 1st, 2nd and 3rd prize money (the differences between which were significant).

A third factor is how good the actual deal is. There's no law that says a deal has to be fair. I got headsup in the Fitz one night and was immediately offered an even chop by my opponent who outchipped me 10 to 1. I felt I had a pretty healthy edge on him, but with 7 big blinds to his 70, there's no way I was winning that in 50% of universes, so I snapped his hand off. David Lappin also once chopped an online tourney where he got more than first prize money.

[8611]

Thanks for that lads.

Ok, just from first principles, lets assume for the sake of argument that I didn't perceive that I had an edge against them, how do the above numbers stack up? I was unsure last night but looking at it today I think its a pretty bad deal for the chip leader, and therefore a good deal for me?

FD you mention my ICM number, can you explain that a bit more or link to somewhere that does? I know roughly what ICM means (the extent to which you take into account the pay jumps in making decisions I think) but basically to get the above numbers we took out the 3rd place money for each of us and then divided the remaining prize money proportionately according to our stacks. Is that not effectively the same as ICM or is it skewed towards me being a slightly better proposition because I'm going to be shoving more with nothing to lose? ('ll have a look at a few of those ICM apps and be ready to use them next time anyway).

As a rule of thumb is the ICM amount the minimum I should accept, and then aim for a few per cent more of the prize pool by negotiation?

Otherwise my thinking was actually very similar to doke's. The only time I would feel my edge would justify refusing the deal was if I was playing against two tight passive rocks as I could just keep firing and firing and they'd fold unless they have it. Other players, even if I did feel I had an edge against it might be the kind of edge that could only be induced by high variance anyway - i.e. spewy, active villains who I'm going to end up being in a hand for all my chips very soon, or lads who will call a lot with any bit of it meaning I have to hit to win. Those kind of lads I would definitely have an edge over in ten tournaments, but not necessarily an appreciable edge on one three handed game, or at least not a sufficient edge to warrant refusing a deal.

As it happens both of my opponents seemed like good competent players. At the start of the final table they were the two lads I knew I would have to be wary of and one of them in particular gave me a lot of trouble. Both of them knew that I had the potential to be at it in a given situation, were willing to play accordingly and would definitely adjust to three handed play better than the average player. I did feel they had exploitable tendencies, one of them opened a bit too much, and a bit too big, 3.5BBs, and continued firing a bit too much but in order to exploit that, again, I was going to have to engage in a lot of high variance stuff.

I think if I had an idea how to arrive at a decent number based on chip sizes and payouts, and then an idea how to value a perceived edge over and above that nunber in a given situation I'd be happy. I'm actually surprised I couldn't find more stuff on it on line, we spend a lot of time talking about the optimum way to play a hand but at this end of the tournaments there's probably a lot more value to be won and lost.

[8611]

i wouldn't be doing a deal yet while i'm shortest stack. There's still a lot of play left and i'd like to get myself into a position where the deal offers me more than 2nd place.

That's actually a good point which I hadn't considered. Realistically the only reason the 2nd stack was in the position he was was because he had binked runner runner in a decent pot with me after I had (otherwise) correctly called him down with second pair.

[Flushdraw]

FD you mention my ICM number, can you explain that a bit more or link to somewhere that does? I know roughly what ICM means (the extent to which you take into account the pay jumps in making decisions I think) but basically to get the above numbers we took out the 3rd place money for each of us and then divided the remaining prize money proportionately according to our stacks. Is that not effectively the same as ICM or is it skewed towards me being a slightly better proposition because I'm going to be shoving more with nothing to lose? ('ll have a look at a few of those ICM apps and be ready to use them next time anyway).

Doke is definetly the man to talk to about ICM. I just used an ICM calculator to get the figures

http://www.chillin411.com/icmcalc.php

There's a few of these online and here's also an app you can download afaik.

Basically, ICM favours the shortstack and chip chop favours the big stack so push for whichever based on your chip position. e.g if you have 80% of the chips in play, nobody in their right mind would do a chip chop because after you all take 3rd place, you'd get 80% of remaining prizemoney.

[NuckChorris]

On the question of how important the money is to you, say you are offered 2820. The question you should ask yourself is would you pay 920 (2820-1900 which you are guaranteed) to buy in right now against these players and stacks where the prize pool is nothing for third, 1000 for second, and 2700 for first. If the answer is no, then you should deal.

Really like this bit - cheers!