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**eagle eye** · 27-07-10, 01:15

Jessica Ennis is who I would fancy to win it. Gold medalist at the World Championships last year in the heptathlon, she has already won the World Indoors pentathlon this year, the European Championships start very shortly and then in October the Commomwealth games take place. If she wins at both of them she will win it by a landslide imo as the Europeans will put her right in contention and the Commonwealth games take place in October which would be very fresh in the minds of the voters.

Graham McDowell has to have an outstanding chance as well.

**Guest** · 27-07-10, 01:35

There will be big campaigns behind Tony McCoy & Phil Taylor

I reckon Hay has a shout and if Cavindish wins the world championship he will be a decent shout as the broadsheets will get behind him

question is will the red tops

Fav on the night will probably not win
recently people who like the fav don't bother voting a its won so someone else comes thru i think

**kincsem** · 27-07-10, 01:59

Unfortunately Graeme McDowell if from Northern Ireland who only won once with Mary Peters. Golf doesn't do well. Tony Jacklin won The Open in 1969 and the US Open in 1970 yet only finished 2nd in the BBC both times.

The voting often has a personality / celebrity aspect. Princess Anne; Zara Philipps; David Beckham; Ryan Giggs are examples.

**Trippie** · 27-07-10, 04:57

Originally posted by Elshambo View Post

There will be big campaigns behind Tony McCoy & Phil Taylor

I reckon Hay has a shout and if Cavindish wins the world championship he will be a decent shout as the broadsheets will get behind him

question is will the red tops

Fav on the night will probably not win
recently people who like the fav don't bother voting a its won so someone else comes thru i think

cav doesnt have what it takes to win world championships plus is too closely aligned with lance

**8game** · 27-07-10, 07:56

Lewis Hamilton has a great chance. athletics has not received as much coverage this year and the world cup was a disaster. hamilton also has the celebrity aspect. hamilton is leading the f1 championship and in line for a great year. Who is offering the best ew terms? it should be a good trading opportunity barring injury.

**CHDad** · 27-07-10, 08:10

Can they really ignore Phil Taylor again if he scoops all the majors again after his 15th World Championship

**Guest** · 27-07-10, 08:21

Originally posted by Trippie View Post

cav doesnt have what it takes to win world championships plus is too closely aligned with lance

If it finishes in a sprint he does
Isn't this years a possible sprint finish???

I know he is nowhere near the same sprinter without his lead-out train but finished one or two when having to do it for himself

as for the lance thing!?

maybe in states, maybe in cycling world but to the average drooler who votes on this kind of show,
who's lance?

I wouldn't touch him till after the worlds though

**ArmaniJeans** · 27-07-10, 09:09

Originally posted by CHD View Post

Can they really ignore Phil Taylor again if he scoops all the majors again after his 15th World Championship

England Captain and World Number One Martin Adams to be the darts candidate shirley.

**CHDad** · 27-07-10, 13:24

Originally posted by ArmaniJeans View Post

England Captain and World Number One Martin Adams to be the darts candidate shirley.

They should really cop on and realise they are associated with a county league system that is a feeder for the big time.

**Guest** · 27-07-10, 13:38

Originally posted by CHD View Post

They should really cop on and realise they are associated with a county league system that is a feeder for the big time.

And people who say that really should cop on that their "big time" would not exist without the county league system which would not exist without the likes of Martin Adams at the top bringing money in

**Kayroo** · 27-07-10, 13:48

While I like the idea of looking at this from a long way out, ultimately more contemporaneous factors will have the greatest influence on the result.

Giggs winning last wasn't as much due to his long career as the large amount of hype that was generated by the back pages discussing his being in line for the PFA Player of the Year.

If Haye has a title defence within 5 weeks of the main voting period he will walk it. Simple as. Also, don't discount a cricketer coming to the fore in the Ashes series this summer and putting a serious claim in. In all likelihood England are going to smash Australia for the first time in a long time and it could make it an interesting bet to have a splash on one of the middle order batsmen.

**ArmaniJeans** · 27-07-10, 13:51

Originally posted by Kayroo View Post

While I like the idea of looking at this from a long way out, ultimately more contemporaneous factors will have the greatest influence on the result.

Giggs winning last wasn't as much due to his long career as the large amount of hype that was generated by the back pages discussing his being in line for the PFA Player of the Year.

If Haye has a title defence within 5 weeks of the main voting period he will walk it. Simple as. Also, don't discount a cricketer coming to the fore in the Ashes series this summer and putting a serious claim in. In all likelihood England are going to smash Australia for the first time in a long time and it could make it an interesting bet to have a splash on one of the middle order batsmen.

No ashes series til late December.
The Aussies Test team were only over to play Pakistan (as a Pakistan 'home' series.)

**Guest** · 27-07-10, 13:53

Originally posted by ArmaniJeans View Post

No ashes series til late December.
The Aussies Test team were only over to play Pakistan (as a Pakistan 'home' series.)

ya ya, the xmas test match and all that

**CHDad** · 27-07-10, 16:40

Originally posted by Elshambo View Post

And people who say that really should cop on that their "big time" would not exist without the county league system which would not exist without the likes of Martin Adams at the top bringing money in

Of course there is no big time without it. It would exist without Martin Adams

Basically what you are saying is lower levels should be equal with the top levels. Doesn't work like that.

**Guest** · 27-07-10, 17:22

Originally posted by CHD View Post

Of course there is no big time without it. It would exist without Martin Adams

Basically what you are saying is lower levels should be equal with the top levels. Doesn't work like that.

No im not
what im saying is that the lower levels are paid for by the small profits made on the tournis the likes of Adams play in

right or wrong... meh, thats the way it is according to those who run and play in it

**CHDad** · 27-07-10, 17:31

Originally posted by Elshambo View Post

No im not
what im saying is that the lower levels are paid for by the small profits made on the tournis the likes of Adams play in

right or wrong... meh, thats the way it is according to those who run and play in it

Doesn't mean someone like Adams who competes at the small time levels should be considered when Taylor is doing things that will probably never be repeated in the sport.

Anyway Taylor is a really dislikeable person so lets just give it to Adams.

**carlop** · 27-07-10, 17:31

Originally posted by ArmaniJeans View Post

No ashes series til late December.
The Aussies Test team were only over to play Pakistan (as a Pakistan 'home' series.)

Maybe winning the T20 combined with a strong showing in the summer would be enough to nudge a cricketer over the line even before the Ashes?

Off the top of my head I'd say Collingwood would be the best bet.

**Wolves** · 27-07-10, 17:34

Originally posted by carlop View Post

Maybe winning the T20 combined with a strong showing in the summer would be enough to nudge a cricketer over the line even before the Ashes?

Off the top of my head I'd say Collingwood would be the best bet.

No stand out candidate is the problem here. Pietersen is the obvious choice for people to vote for but his record hasn't been that good. Collingwood and Morgan have better records but not the celeb factor. They'll probably end up getting 'team of the year' instead.

**carlop** · 27-07-10, 18:53

Originally posted by Wolves View Post

No stand out candidate is the problem here. Pietersen is the obvious choice for people to vote for but his record hasn't been that good. Collingwood and Morgan have better records but not the celeb factor. They'll probably end up getting 'team of the year' instead.

Yeah good shout on the team of the year actually.

**kincsem** · 23-10-10, 03:41

BBC Sports Personality Of The Year .... SPOTY

I know ..... tl;dr ...... but I'm trying to win €5k for a small outlay, and I have the time to do the analysis.

I’ve looked at the market leaders on Betfair again and all past winners on Wiki.
A good performance is needed imo to win, something like an Olympic gold, World championship win, a world record, a long unbeaten run, or a retiring star with numerous titles.

Summary
Graeme McDowell (Golf) 3.8 [NEGATIVE]
Tony McCoy (Horse Racing) 2.64 [NEGATIVE]
Lewis Hamilton (Formula One) 55 [NEGATIVE]
Phil Taylor (Darts) 28 [NEGATIVE]
Colin Montgomerie (Golf) 36 [NEGATIVE]
Paul Scholes (Football) 55 [NEGATIVE]
Jenson Button (Formula One) 110 [NEGATIVE]
Lee Westwood (Golf) 40 [NEGATIVE]
Tom Daley (Swimming) 25 [NEGATIVE]

Jessica Ennis (Athletics) 18 [POSITIVE]
Mo Farah (Athletics) 42 [POSITIVE]
Amy Williams (Winter Sports) 44 [POSITIVE]
Graeme Swann (Cricket) 27 [POSITIVE]

Graeme McDowell (Golf) 3.8 [NEGATIVE]

Positives:
US Open & Ryder Cup wins.

Negatives: Golfers do not poll well. Nick Faldo won SPOTY in 1989 after British Open win 1987; US Open 2nd 1988; US Masters win 1989. Dai Rees won SPOTY in 1957. He was playing Ryder Cup captain in historic 1957 win, 44 years after previous win.
Tony Jacklin was 2nd in SPOTY in 1969 and 1970 after British Open and US Open wins in those years. (1969: Ann Jones, Wimbledon champion. 1970: Henry Cooper, British, Commonwealth, European heavyweight champion.)
Ian Woosnam 3rd in 1987. He won the US Masters in 1991 and wasn’t in the first three in the voting.
Sandy Lyle 3rd in 1988. Won the British Open in 1985 and US Masters in 1988.
So four major winners and only one SPOTY winner. Faldo won the US Masters and British Open in 1990 and wasn’t in the first three. (Paul Gascoigne cried for England.)
.................................................. .................................................. ....................

Tony McCoy (Horse Racing) 2.64 [NEGATIVE]

Positives: Grand National winner in 2010.

Negatives: Horse Racing does not poll well. In 56 years only two 3rd place finishes:
Frankie Dettori in 1996 (magnificent seven Ascot wins) and Tony McCoy in 2002 (289 winners, a British all-time jumps record) both 3rd in SSOTY.
.................................................. .................................................. ....................

Jessica Ennis (Athletics) 18 [POSITIVE]

Positives: Athletics polls well: 17 wins; 13 seconds; 13 thirds in 56 years.
2010 World Indoor & European Champion; 2009 World Champion

Negatives: Heptathlon is not a top event. She was 3rd in SPOTY in 2009.
.................................................. .................................................. ....................

Lewis Hamilton (Formula One) 55 [NEGATIVE]

Positives: F1 polls well: 6 wins; 6 seconds; 1 third in 56 years.
He was 2nd in 2007 and 2008.

Negatives: Fourteen years since a F1 winner.
F1 was second in SPOTY in 2007, 2008, 2009 despite two UK champions.
.................................................. .................................................. ....................

Phil Taylor (Darts) 28 [NEGATIVE]

Positives: World Championship, World Matchplay, Premier League, UK Open; Grand Slam.

Negatives: Darts not in first three in SPOTY in 56 years. Darts is not a sport to many.
.................................................. .................................................. ....................

Colin Montgomerie (Golf) 36 [NEGATIVE]

Positives: Ryder Cup winning captain. Long successful career. Close to winning majors, five times second.

Negatives: Monty did not play. Dai Rees won SPOTY as playing Ryder Cup captain in 1957, 44 years after previous win.
.................................................. .................................................. ....................

Mo Farah (Athletics) 42 [POSITIVE]

Positives: Athletics polls well. He won European 5000 & 10000 gold

Negatives: Mohammed Farah born in Somalia. Name, race, birthplace not ideal for voting public.
.................................................. .................................................. ....................

Paul Scholes (Football) 55 [NEGATIVE]

Positives: No 2010 highlights. Manchester United fan base.

Negatives: Retired from internationals in 2004. Did not return to international football for the World Cup.
.................................................. .................................................. ....................

Amy Williams (Winter Sports) 44 [POSITIVE]

Positives: Winter Olympic gold 2010.

Negatives: Although the first UK individual Winter Olympic gold for 30 years, skeleton racing is not a well known sport.
.................................................. .................................................. ....................

Graeme Swann (Cricket) 27 [POSITIVE]

Positives: Cricket polls well: four winners; 3 seconds; 3 thirds in 56 years.
He is ECB Cricketer of the Year.

Negatives: Previous cricket winners had big performances.
1956 Jim Laker, 19 wickets v Australia.
1975 David Steele, no idea why he won.
1981 Ian Botham, won the ashes from a hopeless situation.
2005 Andrew Flintoff, ashes win, and likes a drink.
.................................................. .................................................. ....................

Jenson Button (Formula One) 110 [NEGATIVE]

Positives: F1 polls well: 6 wins; 6 seconds; 1 third in 56 years. Only two won the F1 championship that year. Button was F1 World Champion 2009.

Negatives: 5th in 2010 F1 rankings.
.................................................. .................................................. ....................

Lee Westwood (Golf) 40 [NEGATIVE]

Positives: World number two; Ryder Cup winner.

Negatives: had a good year with 2nd in both the US Masters and British Open in 2010. Not yet a major winner.
.................................................. .................................................. ....................

Tom Daley (Swimming) 25 [NEGATIVE]

Positives: A 10m diver actually. Age 16. So a big positive for the X factor, big brother, dancing with the stars type voters. The David Beckham factor could come into play = average to good performer, for some reason may be hugely popular.
1st in FINA World Champion 10m: two Commonwealth golds.

Negatives: 7th and 8th in Beijing Olympics. Swimming: two wins in 56 years, 1958, 1962.
.................................................. .................................................. ....................

**kincsem** · 23-10-10, 03:55

SPOTY winners by sport

Year____Winner_______________Sport_________Perform ance

1954____Christopher Chataway (ENG)__Athletics________5000 m world record
1955____Gordon Pirie (ENG)________Athletics________no idea
1963____Dorothy Hyman (ENG)______Athletics________1962 Gold/Silver Euros
1964____Mary Rand (ENG)__________Athletics________Olympic Gold
1968____David Hemery (ENG)_______Athletics________Olympic Gold
1972____Mary Peters (NIR)_______Athletics________Olympic Gold
1974____Brendan Foster (ENG)_____Athletics________European Champion. World record.
1978____Steve Ovett (ENG)________Athletics________European Champion 1500m
1979____Sebastian Coe (ENG)______Athletics________Three world records in 41 days
1982____Daley Thompson (ENG)_____Athletics________European, C'Wealth, world record
1983____Steve Cram (ENG)_________Athletics________World Champion
1987____Fatima Whitbread (ENG)___Athletics________World Champion
1991____Liz McColgan (SCO)_______Athletics________World & New York marathons
1993____Linford Christie (ENG)___Athletics________Olympic, World, European, C'Wealth
1995____Jonathan Edwards (ENG)___Athletics________World Champion
2002____Paula Radcliffe (ENG)____Athletics________European & C'Wealth golds. London & Chicago marathons
2004____Kelly Holmes (ENG)_______Athletics________Olympic Gold x 2

1967____Henry Cooper (ENG)_______Boxing________Undefeated in 1967
1970____Henry Cooper (ENG)_______Boxing________British, Commonwealth, European
1985____Barry McGuigan (IRE)_____Boxing________World Champion
1999____Lennox Lewis (ENG)_______Boxing________Undisputed Heavyweight Champion
2007____Joe Calzaghe (WAL)_______Boxing________Undisputed Super-Widdleweight Champion

1956____Jim Laker (ENG)__________Cricket________19 wickets v Australia
1975____David Steele (ENG)_______Cricket________no idea
1981____Ian Botham (ENG)_________Cricket________1981 Botham's Ashes
2005____Andrew Flintoff (ENG)____Cricket________Ashes win

1965____Tom Simpson (ENG)________Cycling________World road race Champion
2008____Chris Hoy (SCO)__________Cycling________Olympic Gold x 3

1971____Princess Anne (ENG)_____Eventing________European Champion
2006____Zara Phillips (ENG)______Eventing________Eventing World Champion

1976____John Curry (ENG)_________Figure skating______Olympic Gold, World, European.
1980____Robin Cousins (ENG)______Figure skating______Olympic Gold
1984____Torvill and Dean (ENG)___Figure skating______Olympic Gold, World, European.

1966____Bobby Moore (ENG)________Football________World Cup winner / captain
1990____Paul Gascoigne (ENG)_____Football________World Cup fourth
1998____Michael Owen (ENG)_______Football________World Cup goal
2001____David Beckham (ENG)______Football________Premiership x 3
2009____Ryan Giggs (WAL)_________Football________Career achievements

1961____Stirling Moss (ENG)______Formula One________Two F1 GPs
1973____Jackie Stewart (SCO)_____Formula One________Retiring. Previous three F1 GP titles.
1986____Nigel Mansell (ENG)______Formula One________World runner-up
1992____Nigel Mansell (ENG)______Formula One________World Champion
1994____Damon Hill (ENG)_________Formula One________World runner-up
1996____Damon Hill (ENG)_________Formula One________World Champion

1957____Dai Rees (WAL)__________Golf________Winning Ryder Cup playing captain
1989____Nick Faldo (ENG)_________Golf________US Masters champion

1959____John Surtees (ENG)_______Motorcycle racing___350cc, 500cc World championships

2000____Steve Redgrave (ENG)_____Rowing________Olympic Gold x 5

2003____Jonny Wilkinson (ENG)____Rugby union________World Cup winner

1960____David Broome (WAL)_______Show jumping________Olympic Gold

1988____Steve Davis (ENG)________Snooker________World Champion x 5

1958____Ian Black (SCO)__________Swimming________3 gold medals in Europeans at age 17
1962____Anita Lonsbrough (ENG)___Swimming________Olympic Gold & 3 C'wealth gold

1969____Ann Jones (ENG)__________Tennis________Wimbledon Champion
1977____Virginia Wade (ENG)______Tennis________Wimbledon Champion
1997____Greg Rusedski (GBR)______Tennis________US Open runner-up

**BallymoreChris** · 23-10-10, 09:20

what year did the text/phone voting come in?

**fatshaft** · 23-10-10, 09:41

Great analysis. You missed a biggee in your poll well thoughts though, English competitors do much better having doen less than the other home nations. If you're Scottish, Welsh or Irish, you need to have been absolutely outstanding to have a chance.

Chris Hoy for instance, was surely a shoo in, yet many in England laughed it off, and indeed were even surprised when he managed to beat off Lewis Hamilton.

What is still inexplicable, is Zara Philips win.

**BallymoreChris** · 23-10-10, 09:55

Originally posted by fatshaft View Post

Great analysis. You missed a biggee in your poll well thoughts though, English competitors do much better having doen less than the other home nations. If you're Scottish, Welsh or Irish, you need to have been absolutely outstanding to have a chance.

Chris Hoy for instance, was surely a shoo in, yet many in England laughed it off, and indeed were even surprised when he managed to beat off Lewis Hamilton.

What is still inexplicable, is Zara Philips win.

In the last few years this has not been the case, when Chris Hoy won it that Rebecca Arlington had won 3 golds and a silver (or close to it) and really should have won it.
The general trend in the past 3 years is the English vote has been split across a few and anybody from Scotland or Wales get 100% of their home country vote and getting the win.

Obvious exception is the Philips vote but I think even she was embarrassed about that, I suppose it was the redtop readers who seem to rule the world these days got her in!

**The Situation** · 23-10-10, 11:24

@ Kincsem, what's your views on David Haye at 69's?? From your list boxers do well, and he also falls into the English and obviously male categories. He's fighting in November so it will be fresh in voters minds and he's also hinted at retiring which could get a huge compasionate vote if he does so. Surely he'll come in from 69's either way with a win?.

**Solskjaer** · 23-10-10, 12:03

looks an interesting market, GMAC should deffo get it, only worried about the monty effect on people, He might just be the spanner in the works

Golf major winer in a ryder cup year where he sunk the winning putt, surely a lock.

**TheDrunkenOne** · 23-10-10, 12:28

its a poor choice this year but feel its between Graeme McDowell and
Tony McCoy favoring McDowell due to winning major and Ryder cup sucess

well thats where my money will be going

**eagle eye** · 23-10-10, 13:06

Originally posted by fatshaft View Post

What is still inexplicable, is Zara Philips win.

Those English love their royalty.

**NewApproach** · 23-10-10, 13:50

It's about time Tony McCoy gets some recognition from the general public for being the superb sportsman that he is.

**kincsem** · 23-10-10, 14:12

Should not have won

Year__Winner_________________Sport____Performance_ ____________|_Second_________Sport_______Third____ __Sport

1967__Henry Cooper (ENG)_______Boxing____Undefeated in 1967_________|_Beryl Burton (ENG)_______Cycling_______Harvey Smith (ENG)______Show jumping
1969__Ann Jones (ENG)__________Tennis____Wimbledon Champion_______|_Tony Jacklin (ENG)_______Golf_______George Best (NIR)______Football
1970__Henry Cooper (ENG)_______Boxing____British, C'wealth, European__|_Tony Jacklin (ENG)_______Golf_______Bobby Moore (ENG)______Football
1971__Princess Anne (ENG)______Eventing__European Champion_________|_George Best (NIR)________Football_______Barry John (WAL)______Rugby union
1981__Ian Botham (ENG)_________Cricket___Botham's Ashes_____________|_Steve Davis (ENG)________Snooker_______Sebastian Coe (ENG)____Athletics
1984__Torvill and Dean (ENG)___F skating__Olympic Gold, World, Euros__|_Sebastian Coe (ENG)______Athletics_______Steve Davis (ENG)______Snooker
1990__Paul Gascoigne (ENG)_____Football__World Cup fourth___________|_Stephen Hendry (SCO)_____Snooker_______Graham Gooch (ENG)______Cricket
1998__Michael Owen (ENG)_______Football__World Cup goal____________|_Denise Lewis (ENG)_______Athletics_______Iwan Thomas (WAL)______Athletics
2001__David Beckham (ENG)______Football__Premiership x 3____________|_Ellen MacArthur (ENG)____Sailing_______Michael Owen (ENG)______Football
2005__Andrew Flintoff (ENG)____Cricket___Ashes win__________________|_Ellen MacArthur (ENG)____Sailing_______Steven Gerrard (ENG)______Football
2006__Zara Phillips (ENG)______Eventing__Eventing World Champion____|_Darren Clarke (NIR)______Golf_______Beth Tweddle (ENG)______Gymnastics
2009__Ryan Giggs (WAL)_________Football__Career achievements_______|_Jenson Button (ENG)______Formula One_______Jessica Ennis (ENG)______Athletics

The big worry is it is often a PERSONALITY contest, not a SPORTING contest.
Above is a list of winners with dubious credentials.

1967__Henry Cooper, "Our Enry", lovable local hero and only capable of beating Europeans. A very small heavyweight, Wikipedia says 12 stone 12 pounds. Not able to beat US heavyweights. BUT BOXING WAS ON TV REGULARLY (EASY TO FILM)
Beryl Burton won the British all-rounder 25 years in a row. In 1967 she set a British women's 12 hour time trial record that was better than the men's record! NEVER ON TV,

1969__Ann Jones wins the second "Open era" (i.e. professional era) Wimbledon. For 80 years before that it was amateurs only. She lost only five games in her first three matches. A weak year with pros beating amateurs. She really only had to beat Margaret Court and Billie Jean King to win the title. TENNIS WAS ON TV
Tony Jacklin won the British Open, the first British player in 18 years. ON TV

1970__Henry Cooper again, beating only British and European boxers. ON TV
Tony Jacklin won the US Open, the first European in 84 years. NOT ON TV

1971__Princess Anne wins the European Eventing Championships at home, Burghley. The horse doesn't get the credit.

1981__England win the Ashes. In early play England are dire, but Australian players bet on England at 500/1, and surprise, surprise, England come from the next county to win. Botham is a hero. The fact that he is a lovable rogue that likes a beer helps in the voting.
Sebastian Coe, 2nd, in unbeaten at 800m and 1500m, sets an 800m record that remains for 16 years. Voted Athlete of The Year by two top international magazines.

1984__Torvill and Dean win. Not much opposition, or was there?
Olympic gold medals for Sebastian Coe, Daley Thompson, Tessa Sanderson, rowing coxed fours, small-bore rifle are not show-biz.

1990__Paul Gascoigne get booked in the World Cup semi-final and cries. I'ts a SPOTY winning performance.

1998__Michael Owen scores THAT GOAL against the old enemy, Argentina. This revenge for Maradona's "hand of God" goal is about all he does, but it was enough. Almost forgotten is England actually drew that last 16 match 2-2, and lost 4-3 on penalties.

2001__In October David Beckhan scored a free kick against Greece deep in injury time to secure a 2-2 draw and qualify England for the World Cup, enough to win him SPOTY. It sunk my €20 on Greece at 10/1.

He didn't do much else that year, except probably get a few tattoos and do some product placement.

2005__Andrew Flintoff helped England win the Ashes and famously got very drunk celebrating and gave a very incoherent "interview" on TV. Instant Superhero.

2006__Zara Phillips. She is a daughter of previous winner Princess Anne. If royalty can walk they get an award.
Darren Clarke was second. His wife died in August 2006.

2009__Ryan Giggs surprisingly wins.
On 26 April 2009, Giggs received the PFA Player of the Year award, despite having started just twelve games throughout the 08/09 season (at the time of receiving the trophy). Prior to the awards ceremony, Alex Ferguson had given his backing for Giggs to win the award and stated that it would be fitting, given Giggs' long term contribution to the game.
Jenson Button wins the Formula One World Championship and is 2nd in SPOTY..

**kincsem** · 23-10-10, 14:54

Originally posted by Rekop Dog View Post

@ Kincsem, what's your views on David Haye at 69's?? From your list boxers do well, and he also falls into the English and obviously male categories. He's fighting in November so it will be fresh in voters minds and he's also hinted at retiring which could get a huge compasionate vote if he does so. Surely he'll come in from 69's either way with a win?.

I don't think he is "show business" enough but I might be wrong.
Henry Cooper was loved by all. The other boxing winners had unimpeachable credentials. What might be forgotten is boxers like Henry Cooper and to a lesser extent Frank Bruno, were constantly on television, and the commentator Harry Carpenter interviewed them and built up their profile. In those days there wasn't anything except BBC and ITV.

Football (soccer) is now a major TV sport and someone like Wayne Rooney could win it despite doing nothing except signing a massive new contract. Just look at my list of bad winners to see how one kick (Owen; Beckham) can sway the public.

This year I don't rate: Football; Formula One; Boxing; Cycling; Tennis.
Possibles: Athletics; Cricket; Winter Sports; Golf.

What you want is a mediocre performer who puts their face in front of the cameras at every opportunity and gets lucky a week before voting. I'll be watching "A Question Of Sport" and such. Zara Phillips appeared on the show twice in 2006, the latter for a Sport Relief edition. She won SPOTY in 2006.

.

The soccer World Cup was a disaster for England; the Commonwealth games were ignored by the best; Andy Murray didn't win a major; Graeme McDowell might win by default although golf is a minority sport.

My money is on Olympic gold medal winner Amy Williams. The only problem is she won in February and memories fade.

**The Situation** · 23-10-10, 15:16

I would have thought the complete opposite of David Haye. He's never off the likes of Sky Sports news and shows like soccer AM. In the run up to the Valuev fight he was on every show going and I reckon this 'Battle of Britain' will really capture the attention of the public come fight week. He's more show business than Calzaghi was, Joe was pretty humble by boxers standards.

**kincsem** · 23-10-10, 15:29

Are you a boxing fan? I like soccer and golf. For SPOTY I'm trying to figure out what other people like and tone down my preferences.

In the past Olympic gold medals were a must in SPOTY, followed by Worlds / Europeans / Commonwealth. More TV has brought more sports and more people into consideration.

I hate Beckham with a passion but if he was still around I would consider him (actually his odds are 110 despite only hanging around the England squad in South Africa.)

This SPOTY might go to someone considered a strong gold medal prospect for London 2012.

**The Situation** · 23-10-10, 15:49

No wouldn't be a big boxing fans at all, I'd be very much a bandwaggon jumper for the big fights like most. I'd certainly put a good few other sports in front of boxing in terms of preference. Just think your could be underestimating the popularity of Haye as he certainly fits into your other criteria of past winners. Like if you took a picture of himself, Amy Williams and AP McCoy onto the streets and asked 100 people who they were, I'd say he'd be the most recognised.

**kincsem** · 23-10-10, 17:03

NEWS It's a knockout! David Haye's beloved Mercedes is a write-off after crashing into traffic lights. 23/10/2010.

You are probably right that he would be recognised. He is 6'3" so they would guess he isn't a jockey.

Anyway Google search has these hits.

David Haye 747000
Amy Williams 194000
Tony McCoy 57700
AP McCoy 32200
Graeme McDowell 631000
Tom Daley 189000
Colin Montgomerie 516000

His fight with Audley Harrison seems to be a non-event. Haye is 1.18 on Betfair (about 1/5.) I think he would need to beat Vitali Klitschko to fire the imagination.

In 2010 Haye was awarded citizenship of North Cyprus, a state whose existence is recognized only by Turkey ........ what is going on here?

**ArmaniJeans** · 22-11-10, 23:19

Originally posted by ArmaniJeans View Post

England Captain and World Number One Martin Adams to be the darts candidate shirley.

Originally posted by CHD View Post

They should really cop on and realise they are associated with a county league system that is a feeder for the big time.

BDO >>>>>> PDC scientifically proven in the last week.

**kincsem** · 07-12-10, 05:11

Originally posted by kincsem View Post

Summary

Graeme McDowell (Golf) 3.8 [NEGATIVE] 5.8
Tony McCoy (Horse Racing) 2.64 [NEGATIVE] 2.22
~~Lewis Hamilton (Formula One) 55 [NEGATIVE]~~
Phil Taylor (Darts) 28 [NEGATIVE] 9
~~Colin Montgomerie (Golf) 36 [NEGATIVE]~~
~~Paul Scholes (Football) 55 [NEGATIVE]~~
~~Jenson Button (Formula One) 110 [NEGATIVE]~~
Lee Westwood (Golf) 40 [NEGATIVE] 12.5
Tom Daley (Swimming) 25 [NEGATIVE] 34

Jessica Ennis (Athletics) 18 [POSITIVE] 32
~~Mo Farah (Athletics) 42 [POSITIVE]~~
Amy Williams (Winter Sports) 44 [POSITIVE] 17
Graeme Swann (Cricket) 27 [POSITIVE] 22

Added to final ten
David Haye 120
Mark Cavendish 90

Latest prices on right

The BBC Sports Personality of the Year will be named during a live awards show on Sunday 19 December 2010 (1900 GMT, BBC One).

Some of the athletes I reviewed were not selected. Thirty newspapers select ten athletes each and the ten most popular go to the final competition. Tony McCoy was picked by all 30 papers, Graeme McDowell by 29 papers. Phil Taylor and Lee Westwood are the big price movers on Betfair.

My bet
Amy Williams 32.01 €200.06 €6,204.79

**CHDad** · 07-12-10, 06:18

McCoy is free money.

**ianmc38** · 07-12-10, 08:27

Everyone I've spoken to believes McCoy is a shoo in for the title.

**Raheny Red** · 08-12-10, 17:05

Fakenham race course are certainly behind McCoy

* 12:25 McCoy To Win BBC Sports Personality Juvenile Hurdle (Class 4) (3YO only) - 2m
* 12:55 SIS Vote AP For Sports Personality Novices' Chase (Class 3) (4YO plus) - 2m 5f 110y
* 13:25 Tote Vote AP For Sports Personality Handicap Hurdle (Class 5) (4YO plus) - 2m 4f
* 13:55 ATR Vote McCoy On 19th December Handicap Chase (Class 3) (4YO plus) - 2m 110y
* 14:25 McCoy Year To Win Sports Personality Beginners' Chase (Class 4) (4YO plus) - 2m 110y
* 14:55 Remember Vote McCoy Sunday 19th December Maiden Hurdle (Class 5) (4YO plus) - 2m 4f
* 15:25 Outstanding Sportsman Deserves An Outstanding Win Standard Open NH Flat Race (Class 5) (4YO to 6YO) - 2m

**kincsem** · 14-12-10, 06:46

Back: Amy Williams 32.01 €200.06 €6,204.79
Lay: Amy Williams 19.5 €300.00 €5,550.00

If Amy Williams wins a profit of €654.79, if anyone else wins I get a profit of €99.94.
She is now trading at 16. If she goes out to 25 I will put €300 on to win. Otherwise I'm out.

**kincsem** · 19-12-10, 18:55

The SPOTY programme will start within the next ten minutes.

My position -
McCoy: €199.07 loss
Williams: €994.80 win
Any other: €439.95 win

**Flushdraw** · 19-12-10, 19:00

Despite your hard work and effort i think you'll be looking at a €200 loss after this

**kincsem** · 19-12-10, 19:00

That's betting.

**Wesley Harms** · 19-12-10, 19:06

As much as i want AP to win, and i really do, I still cant see it.

McDowell is the value

**The Situation** · 19-12-10, 19:10

Yeah AP had a super year but there's no getting away from the fact Gmac deserves it, whether he gets it or not I don't have a clue.

GL kincsem

**Wesley Harms** · 19-12-10, 19:13

GMac is going to win this, no doubt

**NewApproach** · 19-12-10, 19:15

Obviously I hope ap wins. I don't think having Westwood in there will help G Mac, the vote could be split between them. I think McCoy will win, but he shouldn't be odds on

**The Situation** · 19-12-10, 19:17

Is Tom Daley a friend of Icarus?

**twitch1984** · 19-12-10, 19:19

200 win on taylor @ 33/1 a few weeks back not even goina bother bother laying any off cause I recken he is the dark horse in the field, would like to see mccoy r mcdowell win but jockeys and golfers have an awful record in spoty, darts on the other hand seem to have a good following in votes

**Wesley Harms** · 19-12-10, 19:31

Originally posted by twitch1984 View Post

200 win on taylor @ 33/1 a few weeks back not even goina bother bother laying any off cause I recken he is the dark horse in the field, would like to see mccoy r mcdowell win but jockeys and golfers have an awful record in spoty, darts on the other hand seem to have a good following in votes

He won everything for the last few years and still didn't get close and you think now that he's getting beaten all over the shop is the time to put a deuce on him to win this

**twitch1984** · 19-12-10, 19:36

Originally posted by Howard Finkel View Post

He won everything for the last few years and still didn't get close and you think now that he's getting beaten all over the shop is the time to put a deuce on him to win this

Look at giggs anything can happen

probably a waste of 200 but twas a mad moment I had and somtimes these thing pay off.
If taylor does win he will be after paying for my irish open entry

**Percy007** · 19-12-10, 20:14

A few whispers going about now and money coming for Taylor.......

**NewApproach** · 19-12-10, 20:15

Originally posted by Percy007 View Post

A few whispers going about now and money coming for Taylor.......

Into 10 on Betfair from 28. McCoy down to 1.4 though

**Wesley Harms** · 19-12-10, 20:16

Ooooh burn for Ross Fisher imo

Taylor being mashed on Betfair wtf

**The Situation** · 19-12-10, 20:25

The Taylor support is probably because James Cordon bigged him up when he was on.

**CHDad** · 19-12-10, 20:26

Taylor and Corden, two muppets.

**Wesley Harms** · 19-12-10, 20:26

Originally posted by The Situation View Post

The Taylor support is probably because James Cordon bigged him up when he was on.

I smell a Giggs-like sting

**Flushdraw** · 19-12-10, 20:28

Smart money is on Peter Crouch @ 1000/1 imo :-)

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