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    Me reading these posts

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    Comment


      Originally posted by dobby View Post
      So the smart money would be to back a North Kerry candidate?
      Well I'm not "smart money" but anyway -

      Number of big changes to the Constituencies - 1) Will now be one five seater, losing about 10k electorate back to Limerick West 2) About 4k of the votes in South Kerry last time had up to then been North Kerry votes - those people will now be able to vote again for their 'traditional favs'.

      So, if look at 'joined' consitutencies from last time -

      Valid Poll 123, 243

      Electorate 89994

      Take out the 10k Limerick West

      So Valid poll [2016] 113,243
      Electorate 82,691 (Assuming same % of potential voters actually vote)

      New Quota (now a five seater) = { 82,691/(5+1) } + 1 = 13,782

      Joined Votes from last time
      FF 11,147
      FG 33,081
      Lab 14,085
      SF 9282
      IND - Mick HR 6670
      Tom Flem 6416
      Gleeson 4939
      Random Others - 4376

      Take out for the lost Limerick West (10k * 123/89) = 7,300, - FG candidate Sheehan got about 4k votes from there, the rest I took out in proportion to 1st prefs -

      Adjusted Joined Constituencies
      FF 10736
      FG 27868
      Lab 13569
      SF 8945
      Fleming 6181
      Mi HRea 6425
      Gleeson 4758
      Random Ind 4216

      My guesses (Quota 13,7)
      1). FG get two, comfortably - Deenihan gets back a bit of his old vote from Kerry South, and he was county wide popular anyway (think he might have worn a jersey at some stage), Griffin has good base of own, performed well being 'anti' government on issues without losing the whip etc etc...
      2) SF Vote goes up enough to ensure Ferris seat - they haven't run a candidate in South Kerry, but by disposition a certain % of FF/FF Ind vote would be 'republican' - now they get to place a mark beside the old gun runner.
      3) FF (pure unadulturated version) will have enough votes between their candidates to take one seat, both their candidates benefit from the candidates not running this time (Gleeson and fleming, and last time was a particularly bad day for FF anyway_ - most likely Brazil though I know Ms Moriarty of old, wouldn't suprise me if she were to surprise.

      Thats four seats gone. Spring vote in north kerry will drop, but likely to stay the same in South kerry (about 10% last time), is an old core vote going back to Moynihans, then Moynihan-Cronin etc..., but a bad day still gives him over 10k votes in total.

      So at that point, one seat unspoken for, I'm putting Spring at 12 K plus (10k count one, plus transfers), and the Healy-Rea wagon at ????? It has to be less than that, maybe 8k first pref plus transfers bringing him up to 10/11k.

      At 1/40 odds on PP, M healy rea is a nuts price. Spring is at 7/4, probably not bad value, and Norma MOriarty at 5/2.

      Its between those three, for one seat imo, and I suspect Spring will take it with FG transfers, but a swing to FF down there and its Moriartys. HR (either one) will have to be beyond lucky to hold on. But then... this is Kerry.

      Comment


        That's great info thanks. I just dropped my mate home that works in Boyles next door and he said DHR opened at 7's today has been backed into evens. Crazy spot down here tbf.

        Might take a nibble on a few you mentioned.

        Comment


          Originally posted by Denny Crane View Post
          10er max bet on it too.
          As per the first post in this thread:

          My major piece of advice for those considering piling into a politics market is "do it in a shop". The counter staff are unbelievably lax about taking a chunky bet whereas you will struggle to get €50 on online.
          "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

          Comment


            Made a small investment on Paddy Power and Jose Mourinho in the Debate Bingo market with PP.

            I'm more interested in seeing what Enda comes out with in his own version of Debate Bingo and watching the subsequent slide in the polls for Fine Gael.

            Saw an interesting bet in the most first preference votes market. Pearse Doherty was fourth highest in 2011 when Donegal was split in two. Now that it is just one constituency and he has a lot of exposure over the last 5 years surely gives him a great chance at 22/1.

            Comment


              I can't be skipping out on work to put on novelty bets!

              Comment


                Originally posted by angle_grinder View Post
                Made a small investment on Paddy Power and Jose Mourinho in the Debate Bingo market with PP.

                I'm more interested in seeing what Enda comes out with in his own version of Debate Bingo and watching the subsequent slide in the polls for Fine Gael.

                Saw an interesting bet in the most first preference votes market. Pearse Doherty was fourth highest in 2011 when Donegal was split in two. Now that it is just one constituency and he has a lot of exposure over the last 5 years surely gives him a great chance at 22/1.
                Also backed paddy power at 20s. Could easily be referenced in relation to lines etc. Have a vague memory of it being mentioned in a debate before.

                Comment


                  Think Paddy Power might have carried out a poll as well.

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by angle_grinder View Post
                    Think Paddy Power might have carried out a poll as well.
                    Ya that's probably what I remember being mentioned before. Seems like a reasonable 20/1 shot anyway.

                    Comment


                      Originally posted by shano1888 View Post
                      Ya that's probably what I remember being mentioned before. Seems like a reasonable 20/1 shot anyway.
                      Got trolled by the presenter there mentioning bookies! ul
                      "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                        Got trolled by the presenter there mentioning bookies! ul
                        Sick alright.

                        Comment


                          Sick is right. At least Martin came out on top. All Kenny and Burton could do is keep saying recovery and shout out random numbers.

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by Lplated View Post
                            Well I'm not "smart money" but anyway -

                            Number of big changes to the Constituencies - 1) Will now be one five seater, losing about 10k electorate back to Limerick West 2) About 4k of the votes in South Kerry last time had up to then been North Kerry votes - those people will now be able to vote again for their 'traditional favs'.

                            So, if look at 'joined' consitutencies from last time -

                            Valid Poll 123, 243

                            Electorate 89994

                            Take out the 10k Limerick West

                            So Valid poll [2016] 113,243
                            Electorate 82,691 (Assuming same % of potential voters actually vote)

                            New Quota (now a five seater) = { 82,691/(5+1) } + 1 = 13,782

                            Joined Votes from last time
                            FF 11,147
                            FG 33,081
                            Lab 14,085
                            SF 9282
                            IND - Mick HR 6670
                            Tom Flem 6416
                            Gleeson 4939
                            Random Others - 4376

                            Take out for the lost Limerick West (10k * 123/89) = 7,300, - FG candidate Sheehan got about 4k votes from there, the rest I took out in proportion to 1st prefs -

                            Adjusted Joined Constituencies
                            FF 10736
                            FG 27868
                            Lab 13569
                            SF 8945
                            Fleming 6181
                            Mi HRea 6425
                            Gleeson 4758
                            Random Ind 4216

                            My guesses (Quota 13,7)
                            1). FG get two, comfortably - Deenihan gets back a bit of his old vote from Kerry South, and he was county wide popular anyway (think he might have worn a jersey at some stage), Griffin has good base of own, performed well being 'anti' government on issues without losing the whip etc etc...
                            2) SF Vote goes up enough to ensure Ferris seat - they haven't run a candidate in South Kerry, but by disposition a certain % of FF/FF Ind vote would be 'republican' - now they get to place a mark beside the old gun runner.
                            3) FF (pure unadulturated version) will have enough votes between their candidates to take one seat, both their candidates benefit from the candidates not running this time (Gleeson and fleming, and last time was a particularly bad day for FF anyway_ - most likely Brazil though I know Ms Moriarty of old, wouldn't suprise me if she were to surprise.

                            Thats four seats gone. Spring vote in north kerry will drop, but likely to stay the same in South kerry (about 10% last time), is an old core vote going back to Moynihans, then Moynihan-Cronin etc..., but a bad day still gives him over 10k votes in total.

                            So at that point, one seat unspoken for, I'm putting Spring at 12 K plus (10k count one, plus transfers), and the Healy-Rea wagon at ????? It has to be less than that, maybe 8k first pref plus transfers bringing him up to 10/11k.

                            At 1/40 odds on PP, M healy rea is a nuts price. Spring is at 7/4, probably not bad value, and Norma MOriarty at 5/2.

                            Its between those three, for one seat imo, and I suspect Spring will take it with FG transfers, but a swing to FF down there and its Moriartys. HR (either one) will have to be beyond lucky to hold on. But then... this is Kerry.
                            Not sure where you are getting your information from but spring is gone, he ain't getting in. Healy Rae ml, Denihan, Ferris, Brassil, Griffin in that order

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by good call View Post
                              Not sure where you are getting your information from but spring is gone, he ain't getting in. Healy Rae ml, Denihan, Ferris, Brassil, Griffin in that order
                              Well PaddyPower odds would suggest you're right, and they don't get much wrong. So I wouldn't be betting the house on it one way or other.

                              Comment


                                Dan Kiely loses by four seats this time. Lost out by 2 in 2014

                                Comment


                                  Originally posted by dobby View Post
                                  So the smart money would be to back a North Kerry candidate?

                                  As an aside. There's a "count afresh" on down here this week. Dan Kiely disputed the figures from the 2014 local election after losing by 5 votes. He is down 3 votes on his 2014 total after count 3. He'll look some Muppet if he loses by more than 5 now.
                                  Originally posted by dobby View Post
                                  Dan Kiely loses by four seats this time. Lost out by 2 in 2014
                                  Which is it?
                                  'Mental Toughness is doing the right thing for the team when it's not the best thing for you' - Bill Belichick

                                  Comment


                                    Originally posted by eagle eye View Post
                                    Which is it?
                                    5 votes separated three candidates for two seats in 2014. He actually only finished 3rd by 2 seats. They hadn't mentioned that when I made the first post. First I heard of it was this morning.

                                    Point is moot anyway. Still not a councillor.

                                    Comment


                                      Dublin Bay South

                                      My old stomping ground so thought I'd threw up my opinion so people can think I'm knowledgeable on politics.

                                      This is always a dramatic and entertaining constituency. Probably similar to other Dublin areas there isn't parish pump here is action. Highlights include: Michael McDowell getting turfed out and Dylan Haskins.

                                      With Ruari Quinn out of the game and Lucinda Creighton having set up Renua it really does blow the doors wide open in this constituency. Eoghan Murphy is the only TD who I'd actually be happy to put money on and he's 1/50 so there's not much point in that.

                                      Runners:
                                      Eoghah Murhpy (FG) - 1/50
                                      Kate O'Connell (FG) - 5/6
                                      Lucinda Creighton (Renua) - 1/6
                                      Eamonn Ryan (Greens) - 1/3
                                      Kevin Humphreys (Labour) - 8/11
                                      Chris Andrews (Sinn Fein) - Evens
                                      Jim O'callaghan (FF) - 11/4
                                      Mannix Flynn (Ind) 40/1
                                      Glenna Lynch (Social Democrats) 50/1
                                      Annette Mooney (AAA-PBP) 100/1

                                      A interesting bunch. A few things worth noting, this is now Dublin Bay South. No idea what the boundary extension means now so this breakdown is based on the old Dublin South east.

                                      Dublin South East: Upper class people with a conscience basically(except for Ranelagh, they're generally cunts around that area). A few knacker lower class areas thrown in for good measure too. Despite the shortish odds (lol Paddypower) I don't think Sinn Fein will get in. FF ship jumper Chris Andrews(He topped the polls with FF in 2007 and narrowlly missed out in 2015, he must be raging he jumped ship now) will be more palatable than the average Sinn Fein candidate but that won't be enough. Gerry Adams still leads them so that's them fuck'd.

                                      Kate O'Connell - Pleasing on the eye and she's young, females and seems like the ideal marketing face for Fine Gael. I don't think she has a great chance though. She's too green for these parts having only been a councillors since 2014. She'll need to earn hers strips first.

                                      Luncinda Creighton: This is a hard call. Economically the locals would be creaming their pants voting in someone like this but being a religious nut is going to be pretty toxic in this area. It's going to be a close call and obviously 1/6 is a ridiculous price.

                                      Eamon Ryan: I think he'll get in. The Greens tend to do well here. People will have forgiven them by this stage and when the other options aren't great I think people will be happy for a Green seat to get in.

                                      Kevin Humphreys: Generally been carried by Ruairi Quinn. I still he'll struggle because he seems to be as dull as ditch water. He reminds me of Father Stone in Father Ted.

                                      I'm heading out drinking now so running out of patience.

                                      Jim O'Callaghan: I think he's decent value at 11/4. He's a first-time runner here as a TD though so that will count against him.

                                      Teddie Top Tip
                                      If you've been reading my gambling log you'll know to ignore this(and all) gambling advice. But my tip of the constituency is Glenna Lynch at 50/1. The Social democrats are the sort of party who would do very well here. Problem is Glenna Lynch has no history here and they are still very small time. I think she'll do well in transfer though. Obviously it's a big long shot but I think there are far worse 50/1 shots and I think Mannix Flynn at 40/1 is a much worse bet.

                                      Comment


                                        may be of interest:

                                        "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                        Comment


                                          Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                          Or not.

                                          Don't think the guy understands probability, either that or he's using bad data.

                                          Eg. Howlin 1% probability in Wexford while Mythen is 100%?
                                          Kelly 3% in Tipp?
                                          Burton 3%?

                                          There's loads more to go with them.

                                          Comment


                                            Originally posted by BigDeal View Post
                                            Or not.

                                            Don't think the guy understands probability, either that or he's using bad data.

                                            Eg. Howlin 1% probability in Wexford while Mythen is 100%?
                                            Kelly 3% in Tipp?
                                            Burton 3%?

                                            There's loads more to go with them.
                                            yeah, I didn't look at it too closely but suspect you're right
                                            "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                            Comment


                                              Jesus Johnny Logan on now and he has more botox than me! ffs
                                              Her sky-ness
                                              © 5starpool

                                              Comment


                                                Originally posted by SatNav View Post
                                                Jesus Johnny Logan on now and he has more botox than me! ffs
                                                some combover tbf
                                                "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                Comment


                                                  oi! SatNav you clown
                                                  "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                  Comment


                                                    Originally posted by SatNav View Post
                                                    Jesus Johnny Logan on now and he has more botox than me! ffs
                                                    oops thought was BBV, he would make a great politician tbf
                                                    Her sky-ness
                                                    © 5starpool

                                                    Comment


                                                      Originally posted by SatNav View Post
                                                      oops thought was BBV, he would make a great politician tbf
                                                      When I saw you had posted on this thread I was hoping you had revealed that Brian Stanley had been caught interfering with himself in the middle of Tescos. It's about the only think that could make the Laois constituency interesting.

                                                      Only 6 candidates with the 3 successful candidates highly predictable. 10/11 to be first to return a count looks tasty.

                                                      Comment


                                                        Originally posted by horatio1 View Post
                                                        When I saw you had posted on this thread I was hoping you had revealed that Brian Stanley had been caught interfering with himself in the middle of Tescos. It's about the only think that could make the Laois constituency interesting.

                                                        Only 6 candidates with the 3 successful candidates highly predictable. 10/11 to be first to return a count looks tasty.
                                                        funny you should mention him as when I came home from work his head was on a leaflet was looking at me on the door mat , I was sorting out recycling stuff and had a big plastic bag at front door for bin and his face ended up in an empty tampax box and off to the bin he went
                                                        Last edited by SatNav; 12-02-16, 23:55.
                                                        Her sky-ness
                                                        © 5starpool

                                                        Comment


                                                          ...
                                                          "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                          Comment


                                                            Defo not I love Osborne.
                                                            Jayzus, Sheila! I forgot me feckin' trousers

                                                            Comment


                                                              Originally posted by SatNav View Post
                                                              funny you should mention him as when I came home from work his head was on a leaflet was looking at me on the door mat , I was sorting out recycling stuff and had a big plastic bag at front door for bin and his face ended up in an empty tampax box and off to the bin he went
                                                              SP will be along shortly with something witty about blood on their hands.

                                                              Comment


                                                                Fine Gael line cut by 3 to 53.5, that smells a bit like freefall and Sf seem to be the main recipient up 2 to 25.5. WTF Sinn Fein are unlikely to have as bad a week as they have just had.
                                                                Last edited by horatio1; 13-02-16, 20:48.

                                                                Comment


                                                                  ...
                                                                  "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                                  Comment


                                                                    Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                                                                    Wow, that seems like a phenomenal line to be able to bet the overs on. Have spent all my gambols kitty for the month, but kudos to PP for handing out free money.
                                                                    Red c poll in SBP tomorrow shows 5% fall for gov parties FG -3 Lab -2. Labour line hasn't moved from 10.5. On those poll figures ( though it pains me to say it) I would much rather be backing Lab unders than FG overs.

                                                                    With Lab canditates relying heavily on FG transfers in many constituencies it is going to hit them a lot harder. They are beginning to look like the " we knew it would be bad but not this bad" party of this election.

                                                                    Comment


                                                                      I wouldn't be that sure. Outside there own supporters Fine Gael are despised. In five years the only contribution they have made to Irish Society is to create more inequality.

                                                                      Also they don't have a great strike record in elections. They had a penalty kick in 2011. Before that they lost 6 on the bounce with their last victory coming against the backdrop of another Worldwide Banking Crisis.

                                                                      I say there will be very little between them and Fianna Fail this day fortnight.

                                                                      Comment


                                                                        I wouldn't be that sure. Outside there own supporters Fine Gael are despised. In five years the only contribution they have made to Irish Society is to create more inequality.

                                                                        Also they don't have a great strike record in elections. They had a penalty kick in 2011. Before that they lost 6 on the bounce with their last victory coming against the backdrop of another Worldwide Banking Crisis.

                                                                        I say there will be very little between them and Fianna Fail this day fortnight.

                                                                        Comment


                                                                          Originally posted by horatio1 View Post
                                                                          Fine Gael line cut by 3 to 53.5, that smells a bit like freefall and Sf seem to be the main recipient up 2 to 25.5. WTF Sinn Fein are unlikely to have as bad a week as they have just had.
                                                                          Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                                                                          Wow, that seems like a phenomenal line to be able to bet the overs on. Have spent all my gambols kitty for the month, but kudos to PP for handing out free money.
                                                                          51.5 now 10/11 unders, 4/5 overs.

                                                                          Comment


                                                                            Originally posted by horatio1 View Post
                                                                            51.5 now 10/11 unders, 4/5 overs.
                                                                            Freefall. You look in decent shape for our bet at this stage.

                                                                            Comment


                                                                              Originally posted by shano1888 View Post
                                                                              Freefall. You look in decent shape for our bet at this stage.
                                                                              Yeah but it looks like I will be just giving it out in the other hand to Hitch.

                                                                              A lot of the focus is on FG in this poll down 2 pts but SF dropped 3 pts and PP have left their line at 25.5 . I've backed the unders.

                                                                              Having a nibble on Donnelly to top the poll in Wickla @ 2/1.

                                                                              Comment


                                                                                Originally posted by horatio1 View Post
                                                                                Yeah but it looks like I will be just giving it out in the other hand to Hitch.

                                                                                A lot of the focus is on FG in this poll down 2 pts but SF dropped 3 pts and PP have left their line at 25.5 . I've backed the unders.

                                                                                Having a nibble on Donnelly to top the poll in Wickla @ 2/1.
                                                                                Lumped on the SF unders
                                                                                His rival it seems, had broken his dreams,By stealing the girl of his fancy.Her name was Magill, and she called herself Lil,But everyone knew her as Nancy.

                                                                                Comment


                                                                                  Invested in that overs on FG.

                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                    I said that David Cullinane was good value @ 20/1 to Top the poll in Waterford and he's now been backed into 9/1. I still think there's a tiny bit of value in that and I'll tell you why...

                                                                                    John Deasy is the favourite to top the poll and ordinarily I'd say he would but his party colleague Paudie Coffey is actually the favoured candidate within the party as he's currently a junior minister and probably has a bright future in the party if he manages to retain his seat. However, internal polls suggest he's struggling so Fine Gael will have to very carefully manage their vote. It also doesn't help that Coffey's hometown of Portlaw is now also home to Fianna Fail's candidate Mary Butler... so he can't even count on all the support from his hometown. This, along with the drop in overall support for FG will mean (in my opinion) that Deasy won't top the poll.

                                                                                    Now onto the reason why I think Cullinane is good value. Quite simply, if I don't think that Deasy is going to top it, it's going to be either John Halligan (currently 6/4) or Cullinane. There's a lot of unknowns since the last election. Firstly, Labour aren't running a city based candidate as they did last time, meaning there's thousands of left-leaning city votes up for grabs - especially because they won't necessarily vote for Ciara Conway who's their incumbent but very likely to lose a seat. It will be Halligan and Cullinane who hoover up these votes but it's very unclear as to what the ratio would be. Sinn Fein also seem to be pouring tonnes of resources into Cullinane's campaign and he's enjoyed a very public profile as a Senator for the past 5 years.

                                                                                    So, to sum up. I don't think Deasy is going to top the poll, Halligan is a fair price at 6/4 and there's still some value in Cullinane at 9/1 - with 20/1 being a steal!

                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                      Cullinane now 4/1. Market looks to be priced correctly now - as well as a novelty political market can be priced anyway. Good luck to anyone who got on!

                                                                                      John Deasy - 1/1
                                                                                      John Halligan - 6/4
                                                                                      David Cullinane - 4/1

                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                        FG up to 52.5 and SF down to 24.5

                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                          Leo was very good on George Hook earlier. He is going to have a busy 2 weeks repairing the damage done so far.
                                                                                          His rival it seems, had broken his dreams,By stealing the girl of his fancy.Her name was Magill, and she called herself Lil,But everyone knew her as Nancy.

                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                            Originally posted by elbows View Post
                                                                                            Leo was very good on George Hook earlier. He is going to have a busy 2 weeks repairing the damage done so far.
                                                                                            He shouldn't want to! Let Enda take the fall for an underwhelming GE result, then step in as the new broom.
                                                                                            "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                              Originally posted by angle_grinder View Post
                                                                                              I wouldn't be that sure. Outside there own supporters Fine Gael are despised. In five years the only contribution they have made to Irish Society is to create more inequality.

                                                                                              Also they don't have a great strike record in elections. They had a penalty kick in 2011. Before that they lost 6 on the bounce with their last victory coming against the backdrop of another Worldwide Banking Crisis.

                                                                                              I say there will be very little between them and Fianna Fail this day fortnight.
                                                                                              That sounds like a party political broadcast rather than a gamblers objective analysis.


                                                                                              I think the overs on FG is a super bet, I've looked through the constituencies and it would appear to me they will end up with a fair (or unfair :-)) seat bonus based on last man standing a lot of the time.

                                                                                              On 30% they could get over 60 seats, even on 26% I think they cross 50

                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                The polls might be misleading as there is a huge amount of don't know's which aren't included in the total percentages.

                                                                                                I suspect a lot of the don't know's might vote FF but don't want to admit it as there is still a bit of a stigma attached to them.

                                                                                                I also suspect FF might be a lot more transfer friendly from Independent's especially.

                                                                                                As regards a political broadcast I have been accused of being FF and SF here so I can't be both.
                                                                                                Last edited by angle_grinder; 17-02-16, 20:56.

                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                  Originally posted by mdoug View Post
                                                                                                  2) lorraine higgins in galway east at 5/1
                                                                                                  Lorraine higgins into evens, oops I missed that boat
                                                                                                  Go big or go homeless.

                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                    Obv haven't seen any polls for the conc but that seems mad esp considering the strength of labour.


                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                      Originally posted by mdoug View Post
                                                                                                      Lorraine higgins into evens, oops I missed that boat
                                                                                                      This is not the type of election that you'd want to put money on a serial loser from a party that has nose-dived in the polls.

                                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                                        Originally posted by dobby View Post
                                                                                                        That's great info thanks. I just dropped my mate home that works in Boyles next door and he said DHR opened at 7's today has been backed into evens. Crazy spot down here tbf.

                                                                                                        Might take a nibble on a few you mentioned.
                                                                                                        Originally posted by good call View Post
                                                                                                        Not sure where you are getting your information from but spring is gone, he ain't getting in. Healy Rae ml, Denihan, Ferris, Brassil, Griffin in that order
                                                                                                        @Dobby - Don't know if you've seen the TG4 poll for Kerry - my take on the Healy=Rs well off - they're at 37% between them, so actually have decent shout of taking two seats.

                                                                                                        I did doubt myself given PP 1/40 odds on MHR, perhaps should have checked my assumptions a bit more.

                                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                                          Originally posted by AdMMM View Post
                                                                                                          Cullinane now 4/1. Market looks to be priced correctly now - as well as a novelty political market can be priced anyway. Good luck to anyone who got on!

                                                                                                          John Deasy - 1/1
                                                                                                          John Halligan - 6/4
                                                                                                          David Cullinane - 4/1
                                                                                                          Kept meaning to have a pop off this and kept forgetting. Looks a very solid shout now.

                                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                                            The book for Kerry is a frightening sight. Never felt so far removed from my Kingdom brethren.
                                                                                                            Profit before people.

                                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                                              Originally posted by The Situation View Post
                                                                                                              The book for Kerry is a frightening sight. Never felt so far removed from my Kingdom brethren.
                                                                                                              All these inbred cunts from South Kerry making an absolute show of us, mortified.

                                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                                Joe Carey 3/1 in Clare constituency. Was as big as 5s earlier today. Sitting FG TD. Was 1/10 when market opened and was 1/6 a few days ago. The massive drift is because of a poll of 600 people the local paper ran in this weeks edition that showed him fairing poorly.
                                                                                                                Massive over-reaction to a small size poll. The general consensus was that he could come under pressure to keep his seat but think he may be worth a punt.
                                                                                                                Last edited by Fonkey; 18-02-16, 17:04.

                                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                                  Originally posted by elbows View Post
                                                                                                                  Leo was very good on George Hook earlier. He is going to have a busy 2 weeks repairing the damage done so far.
                                                                                                                  He didn't do so great against Michael McGrath on Prime Time tonight.

                                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                                    Originally posted by angle_grinder View Post
                                                                                                                    He didn't do so great against Michael McGrath on Prime Time tonight.
                                                                                                                    The first half before the tax cut explanation break he did. McGrath held his own when they came back. Still thought Leo came out on top. Both are the most impressive politicians that either party have.
                                                                                                                    His rival it seems, had broken his dreams,By stealing the girl of his fancy.Her name was Magill, and she called herself Lil,But everyone knew her as Nancy.

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                                                                                                                      Originally posted by elbows View Post
                                                                                                                      The first half before the tax cut explanation break he did. McGrath held his own when they came back. Still thought Leo came out on top. Both are the most impressive politicians that either party have.
                                                                                                                      Any Independent analyst I listened to thought McGrath won.

                                                                                                                      I used to like Varadakar and thought he should have been made party leader before this election. He used to speak his own mind and had his own ideas but now he just trots out the party line.

                                                                                                                      Maybe that now puts him in pole position to replace Enda in the eyes of those directing Fine Gael.

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                                                                                                                        FF line moves to 35.5 and even the way that's priced now 36.5 looks on the horizon soon.
                                                                                                                        Profit before people.

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                                                                                                                          ...
                                                                                                                          "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

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