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Old 27-07-11, 17:16   #1
Jibzzzz
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Run it twice???

Playing omaha cash last night and we both got it all in on the turn.
The board is 2c 6h 8s 9h
Cant remember exactly as it was very late after a long session but basically i have 7 10 blank blank with no redraws.
My opponent has 7 10 also but with jh qh. So he the nuts on the turn also but has flush draw and plenty more outs for the higher straight.

He offers me to run it twice. After a long time i decide i only want to run it once and try dodge his outs. it worked out as we both split but just wondering what was the right thing to do? what would other people do?
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Old 27-07-11, 17:33   #2
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If you like variance run it once, if you don't like most normal people run it twice. It dosn't change the odds at all so it makes no difference long story short.
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Old 27-07-11, 20:58   #3
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Running it twice here would be lunacy surely?
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Old 27-07-11, 21:01   #4
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Originally Posted by bohsman View Post
Running it twice here would be lunacy surely?
not really if he misses the 1st time and hits the second time its a chop.
but if u run it once and he hits then ur sick basicly my logic for running it twice would be to insure u had the best possible chance of getting ur half of the pot.
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Old 27-07-11, 21:04   #5
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Originally Posted by Donk Magnet View Post
not really if he misses the 1st time and hits the second time its a chop.
but if u run it once and he hits then ur sick basicly my logic for running it twice would be to insure u had the best possible chance of getting ur half of the pot.
If he misses the first and hits the second you get quartered.

You're on a negative freeroll you can never win all of the pot so just run it once and hope to win half. The more times you run it the less of the pot you are likely to win.

Edit: Last sentence isn't correct but running it twice is suicidal. Run it 1 or 3 times
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Last edited by sligoboi; 27-07-11 at 21:15.
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Old 27-07-11, 21:04   #6
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Originally Posted by Daragh999 View Post
If you like variance run it once, if you don't like most normal people run it twice.
Don't agree with this tbh.
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Old 27-07-11, 21:19   #7
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Originally Posted by Sometime Happy Dude View Post
Don't agree with this tbh.
You don't agree with logical maths? The times you get quatered are offset by the times you don't get scooped equally so in the long run it dosn't make a difference, your in a -ev spot and your ev will always run out to what it should (a negative result) regardless of how many times you run it.
In this spot personally i would only run it once purely cause getting quatered would tilt me so much but not because there is any mathamatical edge to be gained.

Last edited by Daragh999; 27-07-11 at 21:25. Reason: my english is awful
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Old 27-07-11, 21:27   #8
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Originally Posted by Daragh999 View Post
You don't agree with logical maths? The times you get quatered are offset by the times you get scooped equally so in the long run it dosn't make a difference, your in a -ev spot and your ev will always run out to what it should (a negative result) regardless of how many times you run it.
In this spot personally i would only run it once purely cause getting quatered would tilt me so much but not because there is any mathamatical edge to be gained.
You should be reducing variance when you are a favourite and increasing it when you are an underdog.

ie you'd be better off going red or black on roulette once for 1000$ than doing 1000 $1 spins, on the other hand if I gave you 5/1 on a cointoss you should be looking to spread it out over as many tosses as possible.
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Old 27-07-11, 21:39   #9
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I'm with Bohsman. I've run many simulations by dealing out the cards manually (as that's the only way to get a *true* representative sample of what would happen) and it is almost always incorrect to run it twice in this spot. Running it once or 5 times is the most EV.
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Old 27-07-11, 21:39   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bohsman View Post
You should be reducing variance when you are a favourite and increasing it when you are an underdog.

ie you'd be better off going red or black on roulette once for 1000$ than doing 1000 $1 spins, on the other hand if I gave you 5/1 on a cointoss you should be looking to spread it out over as many tosses as possible.
Both examples you give though it dosn't matter in the longrun, your expected value regardless of spinning the wheel once with €1000 or 1000 times with €1, your expected value is around -€30. Watch any episode on HSP and you see them running it twice regardless of whether there ahead or behind all the time.

There was a thread a year or maybe longer ago about it on 2+2 and a guy proved it dosn't matter on it.

Last edited by Daragh999; 27-07-11 at 21:42.
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Old 27-07-11, 23:02   #11
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Doesnt matter how many times you run it. With the roulette/coin flip example, it still doesn't matter. If u were offered 5-1 on a 50-50 coin flip, would you rather bet €1000 to win a potential profit of €5000 or run 100000 flips and almost guarantee yourself a profit of €2000? it doesn't really matter, it just depends how much variance u want.
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Old 28-07-11, 01:47   #12
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Originally Posted by hotspur View Post
I'm with Bohsman. I've run many simulations by dealing out the cards manually (as that's the only way to get a *true* representative sample of what would happen) and it is almost always incorrect to run it twice in this spot. Running it once or 5 times is the most EV.
Running it twice makes no difference, none at all. The more times you run it, the less likely it is to diverge from the EV, but the still averages to the same EV.
The last sentence is completely wrong. Running it once, twice or five times doesn't change the EV. The EV can't ever change. Running it once increases his chances of hitting his max payout (in this case 1/2 the pot) but this is exactly offset by increasing his chances of hitting the min payout, $0.

The easiest way is to explain it with examples.
Say the guys has 12 re-draw outs, and there are 40 cards left. 30% of the time he will hit, 70% you chop. Your EV is 35% (.5 of 70%)

If he runs it twice. He will get scooped 9% (30% x 30%), chop 49% (70% x 70%) and quartered 42% (30% x 70% x 2). What's his EV here...35% [(.5 x 49%)+(.25 x 42%)]

You could continue the above for 3, 4, 5 times etc. Right up until you run it 40 times and you each get paid your exact EV.
The more times you run it, the less times he scoops.
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Old 28-07-11, 01:53   #13
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Jesus Mellor, I didn't expect a reg to take my post seriously
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Old 28-07-11, 01:59   #14
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why not just do a deal on turn where u get x amount back each and run it once. its the same thing really.
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Old 28-07-11, 03:06   #15
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Jesus Mellor, I didn't expect a reg to take my post seriously
Ah I was explaining it for the OP or the guys who didn't get it.
All the BBV regs are going to know your too smart to believe a gem like 1 or 5 times is the best
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Old 28-07-11, 06:00   #16
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Thanks

Thanks for all the replies.
Well i decided to run it once as i said. I'm happy i did i halved the pot which was my best possible outcome. It would have been sick to only win a quarter of the pot thats what i didnt want, but then again a quarter is better than nothing.

Another question: Do you think my opponent was right or wrong to offer to run it twice?
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Old 28-07-11, 08:41   #17
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It doesn't matter to him either. There's no right and wrong here, it's personal preference

TBH I'd happily do an EV chop every time I was all-in. Would stop the f'ing ridiculous 60 buy-in below EV swings that make me want to punch babies.
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Old 28-07-11, 09:58   #18
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The problem with running it twice when your a dog is if you win the first one your % of winning the second is lowered. So I don't think your calcs there mellor were considering that. for example you only have one out, you bink the first your drawing dead on the second.
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Old 28-07-11, 10:07   #19
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That still doesn't change the EV of the whole system.
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Old 28-07-11, 10:09   #20
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But surely your ev is the same either way,? You have selected how many times u want to run it before u run the first one so i dont think this matters.
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